Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 1

[g00n]

Once again, if your entire team is getting injured simultaneously and their on-ice performance is being crippled by their nagging injures.... it's a sign that the team is too old.

I suspect you have me on ignore because I don't recall a response the last time I went through the injuries and noted that most seem to be based on trauma late in the season, not overuse or "nagging" anything.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Raise your hand if you’re expecting the malcontent over the team to just grow and grow and grow as Ovechkin winds down his career.

I know I am.

Seems some are not all that mentally prepared for the upcoming likely precipitous drop off in team performance. It’s coming barring some brilliant draft gems/trades.

I’m not sure there’s a way around now that Kuzy has established he can’t be a franchise-level star you can build around.

 

[Hivemind]

Or, injuries are random and shit happens. Was Kempny too old? He was 27, 28 when he tore his hamstring. Carlson? Do you think a younger player than Oshie survives getting checked from behind and doesn’t break his collarbone? Was Backstrom too old when he took an elbow to the face by Rene Bourque and got the worst concussion of his career? It’s just lazy to say, “they’re an older team and some players got hurt, therefore they got hurt because they’re an older team.”

I might be inclined to buy more of your argument if these were nagging injuries or if they were clearly breaking down and their performance was steadily decreasing but that wasn’t the case in most if not all of those injuries, except Osh who feels like he’s been kept together with spit and duct tape right now. They were more or less healthy those entire seasons and then had some bad injuries at unfortunate times, some of which were the result of dirty plays.

You're bringing up injuries from several seasons past at this point. Not all of these ailments came from dirty hits like the one that broke Oshie's collarbone. Sure, the incidents that lead to injuries (or the first onset of a particular injury) are often "random" events. But that damage adds up over time, particularly on older players. Random or not, old injuries can still hurt and lead to increased risks of re-injury. As you mentioned with Oshie, he's had enough injuries over his career to be "held together with spit and duct tape." That's only going to get worse for the team as they rack up more mileage. Neither Carlson nor Backstrom had obvious dirty plays lead to their lower body injuries that limited them at the end of the regular season and playoffs.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

You're bringing up injuries from several seasons past at this point. Not all of these ailments came from dirty hits like the one that broke Oshie's collarbone. Sure, the incidents that lead to injuries (or the first onset of a particular injury) are often "random" events. But that damage adds up over time, particularly on older players. Random or not, old injuries can still hurt and lead to increased risks of re-injury. As you mentioned with Oshie, he's had enough injuries over his career to be "held together with spit and duct tape." That's only going to get worse for the team as they rack up more mileage. Neither Carlson nor Backstrom had obvious dirty plays lead to their lower body injuries that limited them at the end of the regular season and playoffs.

I don't disagree that they're old and the mileage will catch up to them (if it hasn't already) but I do think painting all three of the previous years with the same, "they're old and therefore they were injured," brush isn't painting an accurate picture. I'm not sure how Backstrom's concussion last year is related to his hip this year or how Oshie's collarbone is related to whatever core injury he had this year. I think it's a combination of age, shitty luck, and some cheap shots.

 

[Calicaps]

Raise your hand if you’re expecting the malcontent over the team to just grow and grow and grow as Ovechkin winds down his career.

I know I am.

Seems some are not all that mentally prepared for the upcoming likely precipitous drop off in team performance. It’s coming barring some brilliant draft gems/trades.

I’m not sure there’s a way around now that Kuzy has established he can’t be a franchise-level star you can build around.

Many fans who have only or mostly known Ovie-era Caps feel entitled to a level of performance that is actually quite rare, especially over the better part of 2 decades. Reality will not be kind.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I don't think you get my point correctly. Injuries obviously affect the game they just can't be used as an excuse when it becomes a constant. Change the players, change the medical team, change your training. Change something. It's like I'm calling in sick in the most challenging periods of the year and always get away with that. Nah at some point I'm getting replaced and rightfully so.
And bringing up Ovechkin as an example..I don't get it. If you noticed I mentioned goaltending, centermen and number one defenseman as reasons for their failures, not a single wing. Because the game depends on them, not on Ovechkin. Ovechkin is a trigger man, he doesn't do much these days when he doesn't score. The aforementioned positions are what paints the picture of this teams' game. And the picture has been ugly post Cup. Calling them a wagon or something...please. If anything they probably were closer to that title in the first Reirden year but definitely not this one.

Maybe we're talking past each other a bit. I think you're maybe putting a little too much blame on them for getting hurt and discounting how staying healthy is key for making a run. Luck plays a big factor in not getting hurt as well. I don't see mentioning injuries as making excuses, I see it as commenting on the reality of the situation. If they had their full squad, or close to their full squad, and still came up goose eggs then I'd agree that their top guys aren't showing up when it matters but I think the truth lies somewhere between not playing well and not having enough healthy horses to run the race.

And yeah, I think they were a top five team in the NHL this year for good stretches of the season. They were one of the best teams in the league defensively in terms of suppressing shots and high danger chances and had some of the best offensive depth with nine guys scoring 10 or more goals. Moving forward, it seems to me that they'll be in the "should be good and could make a run if the stars align properly" tier but barring some franchise-altering trades or draft picks developing, they're no longer one of the top tier teams in the league.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Many fans who have only or mostly known Ovie-era Caps feel entitled to a level of performance that is actually quite rare, especially over the better part of 2 decades. Reality will not be kind.

Ironically, many of those fans are also fans of the Washington Football Team and the Wizards so they especially should have an appreciation for how great this stretch has been and how rare it is. I'd be willing to wager a healthy sum of money that the Caps will never be this good again in my lifetime.

 

[txpd]

If a player is in a game playing with an injury that isn't fully healed, that's the definition of a nagging injury. That's also exactly the rationale you're using to defend the play of the team, that they were dealing with nagging injuries.

I never said chronic.

Yea, no. A broken hand is not a nagging injury. If a player drags himself out on the ice with a broken bone, I dont consider that nagging. Brooks Laich constant groin and Karl Alzner's destroyed hands are nagging injuries. Things that wont get fixed. IMO.

I respect what you are saying. Its a difference in terms. Playing injured and nagging injuries are two different things to me. Look at it this way. You are saying that the only difference between an injury and a nagging injury is whether the player is willing to play with it. Sit out 10 regular season games with it and its an injury. Play in the playoffs at 50% and its a nagging injury.

My definition of nagging is to be harrassed. Its a minor thing. Playing with an injury that might require surgery to repair is more than harrassment

 

[Langway]

Seems some are not all that mentally prepared for the upcoming likely precipitous drop off in team performance. It’s coming barring some brilliant draft gems/trades.

Aren't the ones least prepared those that still believe they're capable of being great in the playoffs? The ones that frequently display appeal to authority and seemingly blind faith in management?

I’m not sure there’s a way around now that Kuzy has established he can’t be a franchise-level star you can build around.

Assuming they can get him off the books without taking back too much toxic sludge I don't think it's much of an impediment. It's unfortunate but I don't think that's derailed anything that wasn't just eroding anyway. The flat cap and their drafting and development are bigger obstacles. Only having Samsonov on the roster from the past 5/6 drafts is a problem. Only having perhaps Wilson & Vanecek from the five drafts before that shows it's not a recent decline. Some players have been moved for assets (Mantha) and they've largely gone veteran-heavy but not by sheer design. They can't afford to go the way of Pittsburgh and get nothing internally, to say nothing of potentially becoming the next Los Angeles or Chicago. They can scrounge around and add the Sheary, Sprongs and UFAs but it's not the way contenders are built and maintained. The best way of getting a well-rounded player is to develop them and they've really strayed from it (although, admittedly, I'm not sure it's been an actual strength ever).

I have some hope in Pilon bucking the trend a bit and CM/MF/AA should help but it's not enough. It's not enough to withstand a pending decline. If they're not careful the last few years of 8/19 could be in that LA/CHI stage...and it would be sad. The organization has a responsibility to them of doing better and part of that is being able to ice a perennially strong roster while not ignoring the future.

 

[g00n]

Ironically, many of those fans are also fans of the Washington Football Team and the Wizards so they especially should have an appreciation for how great this stretch has been and how rare it is. I'd be willing to wager a healthy sum of money that the Caps will never be this good again in my lifetime.

How many caught the bandwagon for all of the above in the last 20 years? The Wiz had playoff teams for several consecutive years when the Ovie era started, fizzled when the Caps started making the playoffs themselves, and then picked up again in 2013. Weirdly enough the WFT had similarly timed surges, including a lot of hype from the RG3 debut. And the Nats finally broke through to the postseason in 2012.

So someone jumping in around 2012 or 2013 in particular probably expects every DC team to be title contenders.

 

[g00n]

Yea, no. A broken hand is not a nagging injury. If a player drags himself out on the ice with a broken bone, I dont consider that nagging. Brooks Laich constant groin and Karl Alzner's destroyed hands are nagging injuries. Things that wont get fixed. IMO.

I respect what you are saying. Its a difference in terms. Playing injured and nagging injuries are two different things to me. Look at it this way. You are saying that the only difference between an injury and a nagging injury is whether the player is willing to play with it. Sit out 10 regular season games with it and its an injury. Play in the playoffs at 50% and its a nagging injury.

My definition of nagging is to be harrassed. Its a minor thing. Playing with an injury that might require surgery to repair is more than harrassment

Young players also have "nagging injuries", to add to your point.

Maybe someone this guy hasn't ignored can review the injuries with him, as almost all were trauma-based and late in the season. Only Backstrom's hip is a mystery and possibly "chronic" or "nagging", iirc.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Trotz coddlers?

Humpty Dumpty is the best coach in Caps' history and management was utterly foolish to listen to guys like Carlson and Kuzy bitch about his system.

Yes, people who pine for his dancing eyebrows and lack of neck. haha

He works for Aisles now. He's gone. Time to move forward. He's not coming back. Hasta la vista. See ya later. Sayonara. Au revoir. Toodles. Byeeee.

All this has been rehashed to death for the last 3 years now.

Lavi had the team playing fine until 1/2 the team was hurt in the last 2 to 3 weeks. Which, last I checked, does happen during hockey games. Weird right?

 

[Calicaps]

I know the hot take these days is that 8 and 19 are anchors, and we should all be pissed off that they're holding the team back with their high salaries (jerks!). But I just stumbled upon this montage. It's from last year; not sure how I missed it. But it's got all the feels on this happiest of anniversaries:

 

[txpd]

Young players also have "nagging injuries", to add to your point.

Maybe someone this guy hasn't ignored can review the injuries with him, as almost all were trauma-based and late in the season. Only Backstrom's hip is a mystery and possibly "chronic" or "nagging", iirc.

Backstrom had a hip surgery in 2015. This could be a reoccur of the same injury or something different. Ov was a leg muscle injury that we've seen no evidence of in the past. Carlson has had ankle issues in the past but this knee is new. We saw Oshie injure a low ab muscle. Sounds a lot like he took a shot to dull the pain and played anyway. Then of course there is Vanecek, not old, and a muscle pull.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Drafting better is how this team would extend its window. Its also how we got here in the first place, with Ovechkin Kuzy Wilson Orlov Carlson Green Semin Burakovsky Vrana Holtby all guys who helped this team start winning in the first place. Hopefully we stop trading 1st/2nd round picks and make good selections with them, otherwise the rebuild wont be pretty.

 

[g00n]

Backstrom had a hip surgery in 2015. This could be a reoccur of the same injury or something different. Ov was a leg muscle injury that we've seen no evidence of in the past. Carlson has had ankle issues in the past but this knee is new. We saw Oshie injure a low ab muscle. Sounds a lot like he took a shot to dull the pain and played anyway. Then of course there is Vanecek, not old, and a muscle pull.

Also Wilson with the knee-on-knee and busted hand vs NYR

 

[Calicaps]

Drafting better is how this team would extend its window. Its also how we got here in the first place, with Ovechkin Kuzy Wilson Orlov Carlson Green Semin Burakovsky Vrana Holtby all guys who helped this team start winning in the first place. Hopefully we stop trading 1st/2nd round picks and make good selections with them, otherwise the rebuild wont be pretty.

Am I wrong that Hershey just won the AHL season with a roster full of Caps draft picks? Is there not an NHL talent among them? When you're a good team, you draft late so the guys you pick are likely to need more time to develop. Does that mean our drafting is shit? Is actually pretty good? I keep hearing how our drafting is this huge weakness, but I feel like there's a talent pipeline, especially on D, that's nearly ripe. I am just speculating here but maybe management has been trying to keep the team competitive while those guys got the experience they needed in the A. Is that not correct?

And yeah, they've traded away some picks over the years to acquire players, some of whom have been key--Kempny for instance.

 

[txpd]

Also Wilson with the knee-on-knee and busted hand vs NYR

Yea. Wilson was probably playing on a knee too. Forgot about that

 

[Rayquaza64]

Am I wrong that Hershey just won the AHL season with a roster full of Caps draft picks? Is there not an NHL talent among them? When you're a good team, you draft late so the guys you pick are likely to need more time to develop. Does that mean our drafting is shit? Is actually pretty good? I keep hearing how our drafting is this huge weakness, but I feel like there's a talent pipeline, especially on D, that's nearly ripe. I am just speculating here but maybe management has been trying to keep the team competitive while those guys got the experience they needed in the A. Is that not correct?

And yeah, they've traded away some picks over the years to acquire players, some of whom have been key--Kempny for instance.

McMichael, Fehervary, Protas, and Alexeyev, and maybe Leason are the only 5 who likely have a NHL career of anything other than a 4th line guy who is easily replacable. Hershey is great AHL wise, mix of young players and vets, but most of the guys on the team are NHL depth at best and most probably wont even be that. Caps haven't had a draft pick be in the lineup consistently since 2014 ('15 if you count Sammy) and the closest guy we've had to being a regular (Siegenthaler) was traded. Our drafting as of late hasnt been good and its why our prospect pool has been ranked near the bottom for a while now, and has only recently been out of the basement since we added guys like McMichael and Lapierre.

 

[Calicaps]

Aren't the ones least prepared those that still believe they're capable of being great in the playoffs? The ones that frequently display appeal to authority and seemingly blind faith in management?

First of all, I think the claims of blind faith are bogus. I think what many call blind faith is just a matter of putting more faith in a management group that has shown the ability to build a winner than in the hockey savvy of random internet posters.

That aside though, I'd say no. I can only speak for myself, but I think it isn't irrational to look at a team that continues to be competitive and at the top of tough divisions each year and think there's potential for PO success under the right circumstances, while also acknowledging that the overall trajectory is toward decline.

What is unrealistic IMO is the idea that if the management was smarter, they could just flow right into a new version of the Caps without suffering pain associated with the aging of the superstars. Kuzy was dominant in 2018. MacLellan was not wrong to think he--along with Wilson--had emerged as the next generation or that Vrana and Burt would mature and rise to the occasion, especially after seeing what it took to win. So if those were the right decisions at the time, it's hard to claim he hasn't brought in younger talent to bolster the roster. I lay the blame firmly on the younger talent for not seizing the obvious opportunities. The only totally surprising outcome for me of the young guys he's traded away is Stephenson, and I defy anyone here to prove to me they predicted his potential as 1C.

 

[Calicaps]

McMichael, Fehervary, Protas, and Alexeyev, and maybe Leason are the only 5 who likely have a NHL career of anything other than a 4th line guy who is easily replacable. Hershey is great AHL wise, mix of young players and vets, but most of the guys on the team are NHL depth at best and most probably wont even be that. Caps haven't had a draft pick be in the lineup consistently since 2014 ('15 if you count Sammy) and the closest guy we've had to being a regular (Siegenthaler) was traded. Our drafting as of late hasnt been good and its why our prospect pool has been ranked near the bottom for a while now, and has only recently been out of the basement since we added guys like McMichael and Lapierre.

So is it your opinion that drafting in late 20s for a decade is not a factor in the quality of our prospects? If you check the NHL organizational rankings you'll find, shocking I know, that the 10 worst also have been among the most consistent playoff teams over the past decade, while the 10 best are chronically shit NHL teams. I suspect there's some causation there.

Saying our drafting has been bad ignores the fact that our team has been great for a very long time, which necessarily affects drafting.

Beyond that, we've traded drafted players at various points in order to remain competitive for so long.

Has every decision been the right one? Of course not. But since the Caps are hardly alone among elite teams as far as low prospect rankings, I'm betting it's not so much a Caps failure as it is a natural function of team quality.

 

[Hivemind]

Am I wrong that Hershey just won the AHL season with a roster full of Caps draft picks? Is there not an NHL talent among them? When you're a good team, you draft late so the guys you pick are likely to need more time to develop. Does that mean our drafting is shit? Is actually pretty good? I keep hearing how our drafting is this huge weakness, but I feel like there's a talent pipeline, especially on D, that's nearly ripe. I am just speculating here but maybe management has been trying to keep the team competitive while those guys got the experience they needed in the A. Is that not correct?

And yeah, they've traded away some picks over the years to acquire players, some of whom have been key--Kempny for instance.

For as weird as the NHL season was this year, the AHL was even more weird. No playoffs. Shuffled-up divisions. Different games played totals for each team. Three teams opted out entirely. Every team lost several key players to the NHL taxi squads.

Hershey Bears 2020-21 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

Up to you to determine how many you view as future NHLers. I think there's only 3 that are safe bets for NHL careers, and 1 of those 3 spent a decent chunk of the season on the taxi squad and another was in the KHL. I don't think the Bears AHL success was really on the backs of guys with bright NHL futures, outside of CMM. 36 year old Matt Moulson was their second leading scorer. Guys like Leason and Protas may get cracks at the NHL as well, but it's too early to really know what Protas' career will look like and Leason is older than his draft class and has an up-and-down development path so far.

As for their drafting, it's a mixed bag (and it certainly hasn't been helped by reducing the quantity of picks/prospects/young players they have by trades both to restock the team and to move up in the draft). In the George McPhee-era, they were one of the best teams in the league at drafting in the late first round (Carlson, Kuznetsov, Johansson, Burakovsky, Varlamov, Green, etc). In the Brian MacLellan-era, his only first round pick on the roster right now is Ilya Samsonov (and some here have no faith in that pick, either). Now that may hopefully change in time (namely with McMichael) and the Vrana pick wasn't a drafting failure, but it's a pretty stark difference in the type of value the Capitals have been able to get out of the draft recently compared to before. And a complete whiff on Lucas Johansen didn't help, either.

Outside of the 1st round, the Capitals have had a pretty spotty history for a while. I've posted on this subject a couple times before:
Speculation: - Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019 Offseason Pt. 4: Nobody Panik!
Speculation: - Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXII -- (Caps submit expansion protect list)
They have some 2nd round guys in the pool currently with varying amount of promise (Fehervary, Vanecek, Leason), and a couple other ex-Caps 2nd rounders hanging around the periphery of the league (Bowey, Siegenthaler, Sanford). After the 2nd it gets grim very quickly. While these are certainly lower probability picks, their best 3rd round or beyond player drafted since 2010 to still be in the NHL is Chandler Stephenson (and even he's no longer a Capital). Outside of that, the closest are Connor Carrick and Christian Djoos (also no longer Capitals), and all three of those players were drafted in 2012. Not a single >2nd round pick has stuck in the NHL since then.

It's not always their picks that are bad, but it's hard to deny that the Capitals are getting fewer NHL contributions from their draft that most teams in the NHL at this point. The problem with relying on trading away all your picks and prospects for established NHL talent is that it makes you expensive, old, and slow really quickly. You need some younger players on entry level contracts or cheap RFA deals to contribute in meaningful ways. The Capitals got a grand total of 65 man-games of play from players drafted in the GMBM regime in the entirety of the 2021 season. And two players responsible for 46 of those 65 games were traded away during the season.

 

[Scorlov]

Trotz bad
Winning cup bad
Winning playoff series at end of year bad
OrganEYEzation good
Not winning playoff series at end of year good
Being super old and super physical won't make your team more injury prone
Speed is a social construct

Jesus Ted Defense Force you're supposed to add water to the kool aid not gnaw at it

 

[Calicaps]

Trotz bad
Winning cup bad
Winning playoff series at end of year bad
OrganEYEzation good
Not winning playoff series at end of year good
Being super old and super physical won't make your team more injury prone
Speed is a social construct

Jesus Ted Defense Force you're supposed to add water to the kool aid not gnaw at it

No one has said any of these things. Fun game though.