Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021-22 Season Part 8: Off-season Edition

[hockeykicker]

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[YippieKaey]

Just wanted to be the first. So i'll go against the stats and say that Fever will be a solid top 4 d-man for the next 8-9 years or so. Don't trade him due to bad statistical modelling please

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Holtbyisms]

Can't imagine his agent(or him) is very optimistic he'll be drafted again if he inked the Bears deal. Interesting the Caps want to see more of him before signing him but don't like him enough already to do it. That or they're concerned with the 50 max contracts and want flexibility going into free agency and the draft with a bunch of RFAs to sign still and UFAs to potentially add. Maybe if they're several under 50 after there's a handshake agreement to get his deal done once the rest of the team is done.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Just a bit curious regarding Backstrom's hip issue. I have seen other NHL players being reported with already having so and so surgery and being out for a certain time period, but no word about Backstrom. Just speculation on my part, I'm beginning to think if he has surgery for the area of the hip(s) that's bothering him, that it might force an end to his career. Unless the no news is because he's still looking into some type of therapy, he should have already scheduled his date for or had his surgery.

 

[twabby]

Unlike with other surgeries where the pros easily outweigh the cons, I suspect in Backstrom’s case it’s not a black and white decision. It’s possible that surgery may impact his quality of life after hockey, for instance.

Hopefully by the draft they have some more clarity on the direction Backstrom is going to choose because his decision is going to impact their plan this offseason.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

He might not want to go through another surgery and rehab, especially if he’s not going to be back to “normal” even after all of that effort. Nicky wants to play, but he wants to be Nicky when he’s out there. I imagine he’s weighing the probability of being able to play like he wants to again with the pros and cons of having to take the risks to get back to that level.

I’ll bring up Ryan Kesler again. He can’t play with his kids or work out or do any of the physical activity he wants to do. He’s talked about abusing painkillers and being depressed and having holes in his colon due to overusing Toradol. The dude is 37, not much older than Nicky, and at 35 when he was interviewed he broke down in tears talking about how his hip injury will forever limit the quality of his life going forward. Is another season or two for Nick worth all that? I’d say for sure not but that’s one of many reasons I’m not a professional athlete.

 

[Neil Racki]

Backstrom - probably stating the obvious but it sounds like a degenerative osteophyte/arthritis condition from wear and tear that will never go away. Playing professional hockey is probably the worst thing for it.

Its a matter of playing through pain and limited range of motion.

I wish him the best and its up to him how long he wants to do this but this will shave some years off his career.

edit - without knowing his actual diagnosis but knowing they scoped the hip back in 2015 ... I dont think there is a surgery that cures it, this isnt a disk injury or ligament/tendon tear injury.

its degenerative. its a worn down hip socket that causes painful chips and bone spurs with repetitive movement/bone on bone rubbing of the joint.

He'll be getting cortisone injections when it flares up bad for the rest of his life. Get is scoped and cleaned up if he wants every decade or so.

 

[pman25]

Tarik did mention in his recent mailbag that it is a degenerative hip condition but didn’t really elaborate. So it is what it is at this point

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Interesting....I missed this comment from GMBM....This leads me to believe the Caps want him to get it fixed (because they see what we see on the ice). He may indeed be pondering retirement or surgery.

I'd bet he's going to enjoy his summer before going under the knife with a timeline of returning in the playoffs.

Washington general manager Brian MacLellan, though, said that it is not sustainable for Backstrom to play another NHL season with his hip in the same condition as it is now.

Backstrom has 'decisions to make' on injured hip this summer

 

[trick9]

As a fan i would wish he fought and came back because while he isn't what he used to be he is still a huge piece of our team and a valuable leader and a teammate.

That being said as a human the issue is likely to only get worse by playing at this level which will hurt the quality of life afterwards which leds me to believe that it is only a matter of time before he announces his retirement.

 

[g00n]

I wonder if the gift of golf clubs was a hint, or based on inside knowledge of his plans.

 

[SherVaughn30]

What ever decision Backstrom decides on, I think it's almost safe to say he will be on LTIR to start the season.

 

[max21]

Makes you feel some type of way possibly not seeing 19 at his finest anymore, or at all for that matter. Obviously want him to play, but play at 100%. That’s a lot of cap room….

 

[RedRocking]

I really worry about the PP if 19 is out/gone. We saw this past year (in rather pathetic fashion) that our system relies on each of the 5 guys being specialists in their respective roles.

Kuzy doesn’t QB or settle down the PP like Backy does. Plus Nick is excellent at grabbing those Ovi misses around the half wall. While some things got worse when Backy returned, the PP finally started to warm up again when he did.

I’d like to see Mantha on PP1 if there is no Backstrom. Gives them more than one guy that can carry the mail into the o-zone, and he can be an actual threat to shoot from the right circle (or switch with Kuzy and be a good net front presence).

 

[Jags]

Yeah, Backstrom will most likely start on LTIR, and they're not likely to be very specific about his prognosis or outlook. So unless he retires, the only way we'll know if they intend to just pay him out on LTIR as a de facto retirement is if they spend his cap hit. If they spend all or most of the money, Backstrom will likely never play again.

If they spend it all on one-year rentals, maybe there's a chance they're leaving room for a return, but I really doubt they'd play it that way.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Teams left in the loffs have speed. Make significant changes this summer.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Not seeing 19 out there again would suck tremendously but if it’s the best decision for him in terms of ensuring a high quality of life then it’s a no brainer.

Really sucks that this core is getting old. We’ve watched them for 15 years when they came in as baby-faced kids not old enough to drink and now they’re all fathers and Stanley Cup champions that rewrote the record books for the franchise but they’re not what they used to be. “I wish there was a way to know you're in "the good old days", before you've actually left them.”

 

[The Instigator]

I really have no idea what's going to happen this off-season and I love it and also I hate it.

 

[Langway]

They primarily need to stock up on the fundamentals, right? Goaltending and centers. If they have to move out some fairly pricey younger players or assets in general it should be on the table. This is the franchise's best player ever and he's still got it. They do owe it to him to wisely surround him and tweak as needed. The time is very likely now to do something bold. Being down Backstrom and at least initially down Wilson stands to put them on difficult terrain early in the season. They can't afford a slow start the first few months.

Everything needs to be on the table or else they run the risk of a throw-away season. While the 2023 draft doesn't make that altogether unappealing that's not a place they want to get to by virtue of poor management or by remaining too sentimental in maintaining the status quo. They'll be limited by the marketplace but, really, they can't afford to keep the powder dry. They can't afford some mistaken belief that the likes of CMM, Lapierre and Iorio are going to be crucial pieces in the coming year or two that can't be made available in the right deals. None of them are can't miss. None of them project to altogether be the sort of crucial all-around ingredients that fuel playoff success. Maybe the core mix realistically won't be adequate either way but for the right targets everything needs to be on the table. They need a degree of near-term certainty and reliability, particularly under a coach like Laviolette next season, that younger players will very likely be unable to provide them. That's not to say they need to be heavily shopped everywhere and cashed in for the best offers without question but they did keep their powder dry at the trade deadline when the other Eastern playoff teams spent prime futures. Now should be the time they do similar on more of a wide scale.

 

[twabby]

Everything needs to be on the table or else they run the risk of a throw-away season. While the 2023 draft doesn't make that altogether unappealing that's not a place they want to get to by virtue of poor management or by remaining too sentimental in maintaining the status quo. They'll be limited by the marketplace but, really, they can't afford to keep the powder dry. They can't afford some mistaken belief that the likes of CMM, Lapierre and Iorio are going to be crucial pieces in the coming year or two that can't be made available in the right deals. None of them are can't miss. None of them project to altogether be the sort of crucial all-around ingredients that fuel playoff success.

I can’t agree more with this. And then I read the discussion about Fehervary in the other thread and get a little bit of whiplash.

 

[kicksavedave]

Backstrom - probably stating the obvious but it sounds like a degenerative osteophyte/arthritis condition from wear and tear that will never go away. Playing professional hockey is probably the worst thing for it.

Its a matter of playing through pain and limited range of motion.

I wish him the best and its up to him how long he wants to do this but this will shave some years off his career.

edit - without knowing his actual diagnosis but knowing they scoped the hip back in 2015 ... I dont think there is a surgery that cures it, this isnt a disk injury or ligament/tendon tear injury.

its degenerative. its a worn down hip socket that causes painful chips and bone spurs with repetitive movement/bone on bone rubbing of the joint.

He'll be getting cortisone injections when it flares up bad for the rest of his life. Get is scoped and cleaned up if he wants every decade or so.

If there is a surgery that will stop his pain, its hip replacement, which doesn't work in a contact sport. If he wants to play with his kids without pain, or really even just have a normal life from here on out, its almost a certainty that his NHL career is over. He's probably having a hard time accepting that, looking at all his options, and taking his time to come to that conclusion, but I think he will get there in the end. The team and he both seem to agree he cannot perform like he did this past year as a new baseline, and simple rehab isn't going to get him back to where he needs to be.

 

[Langway]

I can’t agree more with this. And then I read the discussion about Fehervary in the other thread and get a little bit of whiplash.

I think they're pretty consistent and it's about scrutiny and healthy doses of skepticism. This take on the core mix seems obvious. Trying to hazard against future suckage is unavoidable. They'd have to be kidding themselves to think it won't happen with or without somewhat token youth in the pipeline. It should be increasingly clear as they now deal with the possibility of the franchise's best center also perhaps being done that it's not time for small, locked-in incremental type thinking. It seems unlikely in light of what we know about ownership that they would put a bunch of pretty unheralded prospects ahead of The Franchise in doing what's best to position themselves next season. Not that they should be moving them out for Tyler Bertuzzi or something but they do need to make some pretty significant additions if they are indeed minus a top six center.

Where we may differ is the execution of it. I don't think a Scheifele is the answer as a righty with some questionable defense. He may be the best pure talent C available but the fit would be fairly awkward. If 19 is done then I'd certainly kick the tires on Kadri. Maybe see if Dylan Strome could be acquired on the cheap as more of a project top sixer. He falls short in pace/defense but the PP1 playmaking could be there. Though if Mantha is given that task then more of a defensively-inclined cheaper two-way C works. They definitely need certainty re: 19 in the next month to plan for next season and it's hard to imagine they won't be looking for a replacement.

 

[twabby]

I think they're pretty consistent and it's about scrutiny and healthy doses of skepticism. This take on the core mix seems obvious. Trying to hazard against future suckage is unavoidable. They'd have to be kidding themselves to think it won't happen with or without somewhat token youth in the pipeline. It should be increasingly clear as they now deal with the possibility of the franchise's best center also perhaps being done that it's not time for small, locked-in incremental type thinking. It seems unlikely in light of what we know about ownership that they would put a bunch of pretty unheralded prospects ahead of The Franchise in doing what's best to position themselves next season. Not that they should be moving them out for Tyler Bertuzzi or something but they do need to make some pretty significant additions if they are indeed minus a top six center.

Where we may differ is the execution of it. I don't think a Scheifele is the answer as a righty with some questionable defense. He may be the best pure talent C available but the fit would be fairly awkward. If 19 is done then I'd certainly kick the tires on Kadri. Maybe see if Dylan Strome could be acquired on the cheap as more of a project top sixer. He falls short in pace/defense but the PP1 playmaking could be there. Though if Mantha is given that task then more of a defensively-inclined cheaper two-way C works. They definitely need certainty re: 19 in the next month to plan for next season and it's hard to imagine they won't be looking for a replacement.

It's less that they don't need make drastic changes (they do, they've needed to for a couple of years now) and more that you'd be so willing to give up McMichael and the others due to them not having some crucial near-term upside while also defending Fehervary so fervently. I guess we just disagree on which players have more upside. I'd guess McMichael is more likely to make big improvements this year than Fehervary, for instance. I'd also guess Fehervary carries more trade value than McMichael, though this is of course just speculation.

 

[Langway]

I seriously doubt Fehervary carries more trade value than McMichael. There's little reason to believe why that might be the case. Being physical doesn't carry that level of notoriety and there's every reason to believe McMichael would be a more substantial change of scenery benefactor in the right fit. It's not so much defending Fehervary as not believing he carries exploitable trade value and also calling into question some faulty assumptions and/or sweeping conclusions that may be premature.

McMichael & Lapierre are former first round picks carrying more name recognition. They also have significantly higher offensive upside at a position of greater scarcity. It's less that they're exceedingly movable/replaceable talents in the near-term than that they're both relatively poor fits for current and near-term shortcomings, particularly when it comes to the playoffs. There's a lot of overlap between their weaknesses and Kuznetsov's generally and up the middle teams can only roll with so many of that ilk, esp. on an older team with slower wingers. Were they to need to move Fehervary, sure, everything should be on the table. But I don't believe there's either hyped up exploitable value or that there's a definite fitness issue just yet. Longer-term perhaps it doesn't prove ideal as Carlson declines. They may need more of an individual play driver and perhaps that's Orlov for a while. It would also be helpful generally if Johansen or Alexeyev graduate to the NHL roster giving them more developing options. Another factor is that Fehervary has already earned the trust of Laviolette while McMichael hasn't and a player like Lapierre also doesn't seem likely to do it very easily. With a strong off-season maybe McMichael changes that dynamic but for now it's another fitness question not in their favor. But, really, it comes down to upside and value. There's way more of it IMO when it comes to those two centers as trade pieces.