Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2019-20 Season Pt. 4: 2020, Act II, Scene II

[SpinningEdge]

Find a way to move Panik to get a left handed shot that’s top 6/9 caliber here.

mcmichael next year is a top 9 guy for sure and shoots left, which we need.

Eller + McMichael (who will be cheap) and another good top 9 guy and all of a sudden we probably have as good a top 9 when Burky/Connolly we’re top 9 too.

For D they have have to get someone who is better than Jensen, Gudas, and Siegs. Those 4 guys are depth players. Caps need a guy who can be physical and doesn’t make mistakes and you can trust 20+ mins.

We need another legit top 9 guy and top 4 D guy bad imo or it’s gonna be tough.

 

[tenken00]

I’m actually surprised he hasn’t pulled a trigger yet. Makes me think he’s working on something significant, or maybe he’s just seeing how the boys handled the road trip...

Yea, I had the feeling from previous years that GMBM doesn't like waiting to the last minute with trade deadline deals for several reasons, one being that prices just get higher for in-demand players (which is usually the case although some players might drop in value if no one is interested).

It does make you wonder right now though.

What @Langway wrote is absolutely right. The Caps have a little over $2.5 million in cap space right now ($2,552,343), and that gets right up to a shade under $3 million right at the deadline ($2,999,004).

If GMBM has something up his sleeve that really does require that extra $400kish in a deal to net someone worth the full $3 mill or even larger in a retained salary deal, I wonder who (or they) are...

Getting me all excited again after everyone kicked my dog in shutting down my Gabby as Assistant to the Coach idea.

But its probably for something not as exciting like saving space for recalls later with a low tier trade.

 

[traparatus]

2019/2020
Ca/60 - 12th
Sa/60 - 16th
Ga/60 - 24th
xGA/60 - 20th
HDCA/60 - 25th

18/19
Ca/60 - 24th
Sa/60 - 18th
Ga/60 -16th
xGA/60 - 27th
HDCA/60 - 30th

17/18
CA/60 - 26th (BK - 26th AK - 20th)
SA/60 - 16th (BK - 21st AK - 9th)
GA/60 - 13th (BK - 16th AK - 10th)
xGA/60 - 29th (BK- 30th AK - 17th)
HDCA/60 - 29th (BK - 30th AK - 19th)

16/17
Ca/60 - 4th
Sa/60 - 5th
Ga/60 - 1st
xGA/60 - 10th
HDCA/60 - 16th

15/16
CA/60 - 14th
SA/60 - 6th
Ga/60 - 6th
xGA/60 - 10th
HDCA/60 - 15th

14/15
Ca/60 - 14th
Sa/60 - 8th
Ga/60- 13th
xGA/60 - 7th
HDCA/60 - 10th

14/15-16-17
Ca/60 - 11th
Sa/60 - 4th
GA/60 - 1st
xGA/60 - 7th
HDCA/60 - 13th

15/16-17/18
Ca/60 - 14th
Sa/60 - 7th
Ga/60 - 2nd
xGA/60 - 19th
HDCA/60 - 25th

18/19-19/20
CA/60 - 17th
SA/60 - 17th
GA/60 - 19th
xGA/60 - 24th
HDCA/60 - 29th


5 on 5 defensive metrics since Trotz took over. As the JapersRink article showed, the defense has gotten much worse under Reirden and there really isn’t much of an explanation of it other than the system he or Cashman are running. It showed every defenseman has had the highest xGA of their careers under Reirden. That doesn’t indicate a slump.

2017/2018 numbers were also bad but there is a pretty easy explanation for that. Bowey and Orpik were easily the 2 worst defenseman in the league in xGA/60 out of all defenders that played as much as Bowey did. You can see the full season numbers, before Kempny numbers (BK) and after Kempny numbers (AK). After Kempny was acquired the defense obviously improved significantly. Carlson’s metrics improved greatly by having a reliable partner (I believe he was with Orpik before), Orlov and Niskanen improved as well (likely from having another reliable pairing to help out), and Orpik’s numbers even improved from disastrous to just very bad as he was paired with an effective Djoos.

There’s no easy fix like that this year. The Caps don’t have arguably the 2 worst defenseman in the league playing on a regular basis like they did in 2018. Jensen has been a problem and could definitely be upgraded, but the problem runs deeper than that. The whole team has seen their defensive metrics plummet under Reirden and there isn’t an easy guy you can just swap out. The issue is team wide.

Holy Jesus... If I could bottle this post up, I could make headache pills.

So in 17/18 Caps were a mediocre defensive team but it had nothing to do with coaching and right now they are a mediocre defensive team and it has everything to do with coaching? I mean it is written in an ARTICLE. Must be true.

Maybe when your starting goaltender goes from being one of the best in the NHL to being one of the worst in the NHL, the team allows more goals. Just throwing this out there. I don't have an article to support this idea.

 

[caps4cup]

Holy Jesus... If I could bottle this post up, I could make headache pills.

So in 17/18 Caps were a mediocre defensive team but it had nothing to do with coaching and right now they are a mediocre defensive team and it has everything to do with coaching? I mean it is written in an ARTICLE. Must be true.

Maybe when your starting goaltender goes from being one of the best in the NHL to being one of the worst in the NHL, the team allows more goals. Just throwing this out there. I don't have an article to support this idea.

In 2017/2018, the Capitals had arguably the 2 worst defenseman in the NHL that were regulars. They replaced one of them (Bowey) with Kempny and the the defense improved mightily. There is no horrific defender on the team this year that can be easily replaced for a magic fix like that.

I also will say the defensemen from 14-17 were generally better than they have been the past 2 years so I don’t think they need to be a top 5 defensive team like they were in that timeframe. But the defense has obviously been a mess under Reirden and the statistics back that up.

Also, Holtby has been bad this year but IIRC he was actually positive in terms of goals saved above average last year, which shows how left out to dry he was by the team considering he had a .911 SV%.

 

[Langway]

Kreider is probably the next big piece that gets the market going again but extension talks may need to resolve first. From there it may be a matter of waiting out the non-rental market and seeing whether some teams budge and decide to rebuild more in full.

If the Caps were just going to add, say, DeMelo & Marleau they could get that over with today or tomorrow perhaps, assuming the sellers aren't waiting anything out. It makes sense for the Caps to wait things out because they more than need more than just cheap value depth. Three months of porous defense isn't going to be tidied up by a low cost move or two (and perhaps not by any move at all). The players may not care a whole lot about winning the division but I've got to believe mgmt. is motivated to make a splash to hold off PIT and get things more in order.

 

[Raikkonen]

Last several games Holtby is ok, but the skaters look like shit.

Im not sure Holtby was the reason for good defense.

 

[Raikkonen]

Trade Jensen for DeMelo today and get additional cap space till deadline.

At the very least it clears contract.

 

[HecticGlow]

Holy Jesus... If I could bottle this post up, I could make headache pills.

So in 17/18 Caps were a mediocre defensive team but it had nothing to do with coaching and right now they are a mediocre defensive team and it has everything to do with coaching? I mean it is written in an ARTICLE. Must be true.

Maybe when your starting goaltender goes from being one of the best in the NHL to being one of the worst in the NHL, the team allows more goals. Just throwing this out there. I don't have an article to support this idea.

And by sheer coincidence, 2017-2018 was also the year Holtby began to struggle? Almost as if the struggles of the D and the struggles of the G are somehow linked...

 

[SpinningEdge]

Holy Jesus... If I could bottle this post up, I could make headache pills.

So in 17/18 Caps were a mediocre defensive team but it had nothing to do with coaching and right now they are a mediocre defensive team and it has everything to do with coaching? I mean it is written in an ARTICLE. Must be true.

Maybe when your starting goaltender goes from being one of the best in the NHL to being one of the worst in the NHL, the team allows more goals. Just throwing this out there. I don't have an article to support this idea.

I mean if you just watch the games it’s obvious.
Tons of BAD turnovers.
Breakaways non stop.
Tons of high quality chances bc team can’t get puck out of zone.

a lot of us here, including you, watch almost every game and it’s easily the worst defense in years.

Teams slump but Reirdon also has not proven to adjust and fix things yet too. In fact, things seem to be getting worse. That’s on coaching. When a team is stinking it’s up to a coach to get one of best rosters top to bottom in nhl playing better. If players don’t respond - that falls on coach too.

 

[Langway]

DeMelo to WPG.

 

[caps4cup]

DeMelo to WPG.

I don’t know why we wouldn’t pull the trigger if that was the price, unless BMac is looking more at forwards than defensemen.

 

[Langway]

Probably believed it was a fairly marginal and potentially disruptive addition without all that much upside. My guess is they're more after someone like Dillon, in part for the leadership/experience component.

 

[RandyHolt]

Is that how you saw the game yesterday? I watched the Vegas cast and they ran a full composition of hits. At least half of which were the Caps. One of which was Ov running a guy into the Knight's bench. All flybys? Reirden talked post game about how their hitting game was working for them but they need better starts. There wasn't a hitting game?

Defense always looks soft as silk

Forwards are fearless. I know you know losing Orpik has some ramifications.

 

[Rayquaza64]

how did we miss out on demelo what the f***

 

[txpd]

Also, important to keep in mind that this horrible defensive iteration of the Caps is 15th in the league in goals against. The amazing, Trotz led defensive juggernaut of 17-18 was 16th. It seems very likely that Caps stopped being an elite defensive team right around the time when Holtby stopped being an elite goalie.

I'm with you regarding time management for the top-6. Our 4th line does not see ice very often. Leipsic is averaging ~9min a game. DSP used to play ~12min for example. Dowd and Hathaway play less than Beagle/Stephenson. Combine that with Panik getting deployed as a 4th line forward and Caps are relying heavily on Ovechkin and Backstrom.

I honestly do not know if Reirden doesn't play his bottom players because he doesn't trust the players he's been given or because he likes to coach a 3-line game. I do know that by the time we got to OT in game 7 vs Canes this team was done. It was hard to watch.

There is little difference in how Reirden uses his 4th line players. Leipsic plays less but Dowd and Hathaway play as much as Burakovsky did.

Beagle was a special situation. He played as much as Eller with Trotz. He was a top9 center on a team with 4 top 3 centers. Beagle skated up the lineup regularly as opposed to Dowd and Hathaway.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

Soooooo what exactly is GMBM waiting for here?

 

[traparatus]

I mean if you just watch the games it’s obvious.
Tons of BAD turnovers.
Breakaways non stop.
Tons of high quality chances bc team can’t get puck out of zone.

a lot of us here, including you, watch almost every game and it’s easily the worst defense in years.

Teams slump but Reirdon also has not proven to adjust and fix things yet too. In fact, things seem to be getting worse. That’s on coaching. When a team is stinking it’s up to a coach to get one of best rosters top to bottom in nhl playing better. If players don’t respond - that falls on coach too.

I've watched many more games this season that didn't have tons of turnovers breakaways or high quality chances. I just don't start spasming out every time the team goes into a slump.

I also have tempered defensive expectations for a core that features Kempny, Jensen, Gudas and Siegenthaler. By default, two of those have to play in the top-4. This to go along with a top-6 forward core that features some suspect as hell defensive characters.

What's your expectation for defensive performance of this group? Please, for the love of all that's holy, give it to me in Goals Against and not in xHDCA-BA-PK.

 

[txpd]

Defense always looks soft as silk

Forwards are fearless. I know you know losing Orpik has some ramifications.

Yea, but Gudas. He's not exactly Kleenex. The difference is Niskanen.

 

[Rayquaza64]

I swear GMBM better make a move soon otherwise all the good options left are probably gonna disappear

 

[Langway]

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Much rather have DeMelo than Dillon, he's improved a ton since his SJ days. Could have been the Niskanen fill in Jensen was supposed to be.

Maybe Dorion was doing his I don't trade with the east shit again

 

[tenken00]

So basically all the top teams that haven't blown their wad yet.

 

[caps4cup]

Dillon for a 2nd and 3rd. Would’ve much rather gotten DeMelo for a 3rd. Interested to see how the rest of the defense shakes out after this.

 

[hb12xchamps]

SJ retains 50% of his cap hit

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Anyone have a scouting report on Dillion? I don’t know much about his game