I'm sure he'll still get the bulk of the starts but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see his starts slowly diminish over the course of the year if he continues on this course.
As for why he's struggling so badly, it's tough to tell. He has been on a downward trend for a few seasons now and the SC run was an abnormality if you look at his overall numbers
To why he's struggling I think I can answer that. There are multiple reasons. 1st is his playing style. Holtby's goaltending style is labeled as a hybrid(combo of standup/butterfly). It's a style of goaltending that is not used by many anymore. He stands up in the sense that he plays more in an upright position than most goalies. In terms of his use of the butterfly, he has a very narrow form(the v-shape when he goes down on his knees), which means he doesn't take up as much space/angle of a shot. He doesn't take advantage of the more modern butterfly style that uses what is called the VH/Reverse VH formation. It involves hard pushes(with the goalie skate blade) moving side-to-side(also referred to as lateral movement), which allows for quicker movement to keep up with the faster game. Believe it or not, his reluctance to change to more modern goalie equipment is at fault as well(his CCM leg pads are more than 5 years old in terms of design). If any goalie ever tells you how old the equipment is doesn't matter, then they are lying. The newer equipment technology gives you advantages as a goalie.
Another reason he's struggling is his inexperienced goalie coach Scott Murray. While Murray has worked well for Samsonov(he coached him in Hershey), it hasn't been the same with Holtby. In fact, I don't think Holtby has recaptured his top performance since Mitch Korn left to follow Trotz with the Islanders. Frankly, I think a veteran goalie coach would do Holtby a lot of good.
Last, has to do with the team structure being played in front of him. Trotz had a very structured system in place where the forwards and d-men didn't play so aggressive. A very heavy fore-check combined with slowing down the neutral zone and being very responsible in the defensive zone, are all gone. It reduced the chances of Holtby facing 2nd/3rd shots. If you noticed now, Holtby looks somewhat awkward recovering for 2nd/3rd shots.
Mentally, Holtby is thinking too much and not playing with any confidence. He honestly looks lost a times with the way the team in front of him plays. He has no new contract and knows that his time might be done with this team after the season ends. I honestly think this is effecting his mindset as well.
Another reset from him is in order. I don't know how well he will respond being relegated to the backup role like he did when Grubauer was here. I feel the signs point to him not recapturing his good play anymore with this team.
I would like to see Holtby regain his good form again, but right now Samsonov gives the Caps the best chance to win games.
