Post-Game Talk: Caps @ Flyers 7:00pm

[Neil Racki]

The job of the defenseman in a 2 on 1 is to take the pass away and with that allow the goalie to both concentrate on the puck carrier and not have to worry about big lateral movement. In this case Schultz took away the layup. He cant do both. The goal was from a goalie friendly angle and leaked thru because his pads were uneven. It was soft.

if you stop the twitter video when hes taking the shot .. a left hand shot from the right side and he gets to skate it in .. thats not goalie friendly at all. I would have liked Schultz to hedge a bit more on that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Its almost as if PL is starting to figure out what some of his players do well and what they don't do well at and he's trying to put them all in a position to succeed. Kuzy and Vrana are gifted offensively but no one will ever call them Selke candidates. The 4th line are robust defensively but no one will ever confuse them for talented scoring threats (specially not Hags).

Its nice to see a coach not trying to put square pegs into round holes, but also limiting ice time of players who are more one dimensional or not playing a full two way game well. I'm OK with PL's ice time decisions.

Also Kuzy's points will come... the small sample size has a lot of variance in it. Not every offensive contribution includes a point... just ask Thomas Holstrom or Mike Knuble. Don't @ me to tell me Kuzy isn't parking in front of the net like those guys, I know that already, juts making a point that Kuzy is doing things to help the team that aren't showing up on the scoresheet yet, but they will eventually.

they better....real production helped win a Stanley Cup.....the promise of it, not so much.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Again, Vanacek should be the starter, like 75-25 if we want to win some games. Sammy can’t stop a beach ball right now

This aged poorly

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This aged poorly

worked to get Jensen a goal!

 

[Capsman]

That 2 on 1 where Schultz let a goal scorer like Farabee basically skate right to the net bc Schultz was undecided and decided to cover the pass at the last moment?

Horrible defense from Schultz. Didnt really take away anything and keep sinking in letting Farabee walk right to the net.

He didn't take the pass away? I'm not following you.

 

[kicksavedave]

they better....real production helped win a Stanley Cup.....the promise of it, not so much.

Well, the points will come, or they won't. And there will be fancy stats and discussion about it until the end of times. For my next hobby, I'm going to try to figure out what all those heat maps and charts really mean LOL

Its also entirely possible that Kuzy's CS production was chemically enhanced and we may never see it again. So for my project after learning fancy stats, I'm going to invent a cocaine that cannot be detected by the NHL.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well, the points will come, or they won't. And there will be fancy stats and discussion about it until the end of times. For my next hobby, I'm going to try to figure out what all those heat maps and charts really mean LOL

Its also entirely possible that Kuzy's CS production was chemically enhanced and we may never see it again. So for my project after learning fancy stats, I'm going to invent a cocaine that cannot be detected by the NHL.

Lol!


If that’s the case and he’s a .55 PPG guy without the white dragon, I predict he won’t see out his contract in DC.

 

[kicksavedave]

Samsonov - how did he look? I had to stop watching after the Flyers scored.

If you stopped after the Fliers goal you missed about 33 saves in a row, some of them very difficult. Rebound control could still improve, but nothing that lead to a goal. I believe he stoned at least one breakaway also.

 

[Neil Racki]

He didn't take the pass away? I'm not following you.

He did. Watching it a few times he did take the pass away so I was wrong there ... I guess I’m being greedy hoping he could in some way effect the shooter while still taking away the pass.
But I am 100% of the opinion that is not a soft goal. A goal scorer gets to skate right in and pick his spot.

 

[twabby]

they better....real production helped win a Stanley Cup.....the promise of it, not so much.

The Capitals outscored the opposition by 1.9 goals per 60 at 5v5 while Evgeny Kuznetsov was on the ice during the Stanley Cup run, the best mark on the team. And his xGF% was 57%, second best on the team.

Once again, I urge you to look at how winners and losers are judged in Stanley Cup playoff games: goal differential.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yeah Sammy see's VV stepping up and knows he needs to match it. Lets not write both of these guys off just yet.

Like I said — just keep switching starts. 50/50. They did it together in Hershey. Do it again now

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The Capitals outscored the opposition by 1.9 goals per 60 at 5v5 while Evgeny Kuznetsov was on the ice during the Stanley Cup run, the best mark on the team. And his xGF% was 57%, second best on the team.

Once again, I urge you to look at how winners and losers are judged in Stanley Cup playoff games: goal differential.

I urge you to realize, without his real production....we don’t win a Cup.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Like I said — just keep switching starts. 50/50. They did it together in Hershey. Do it again now

this is how I wanted it from day 1, just not sure it’s earned just yet.

Interested now to see VV respond. If he plays great, I could see him get Philly on Thursday and Sammy getting Saturday also.

 

[GoCaps2004]

This aged poorly

When he plays well, up his playing time. I'm all for it, and last night was good for him! But he, quite frankly, has been pretty bad!

 

[txpd]

The Capitals outscored the opposition by 1.9 goals per 60 at 5v5 while Evgeny Kuznetsov was on the ice during the Stanley Cup run, the best mark on the team. And his xGF% was 57%, second best on the team..

Not an expected goal. Not a goal above expectataion. An actual puck in the net. Score a goal and win the game.

 

[twabby]

Not an expected goal. Not a goal above expectataion. An actual puck in the net. Score a goal and win the game.

Here's another actual goal Evgeny Kuznetsov contributed to:



How many points did he earn on this, the game-winning goal?

 

[ovikovy817]

Slow start but then it was all caps.

 

[Calicaps]

Not an expected goal. Not a goal above expectataion. An actual puck in the net. Score a goal and win the game.

I could watch that all day, still.

 

[txpd]

Analytics are great for explaining the production. It doesnt replace the production.

 

[txpd]

I could watch that all day, still.

Just as long as I dont have to hear John Walton's call of the goal.

 

[txpd]

Here's another actual goal Evgeny Kuznetsov contributed to:



How many points did he earn on this, the game-winning goal?

I thought face offs dont matter? Ok, thats for another time. He gets a check mark for the face off win. More of that and he will get points. Your point is never that the points are coming and thus admit the points are required. You stand by points are not important. Nic Dowd could do what he did there.

If he goes ten games without a point, he will get scratched. He needs the production. That video is nothing without the goal at the end of it.

 

[kicksavedave]

Just as long as I dont have to hear John Walton's call of the goal.

I hadn't heard the Pens announcers version of this yet. Their bitter tears are so delicious.

"The march of the Penguins is over".

"Alex Ovechkin and the Captials finally, finally find a way to get past Pittsburgh."

 

[kicksavedave]

I thought face offs dont matter? Ok, thats for another time. He gets a check mark for the face off win. More of that and he will get points. Your point is never that the points are coming and thus admit the points are required. You stand by points are not important. Nic Dowd could do what he did there.

If he goes ten games without a point, he will get scratched. He needs the production. That video is nothing without the goal at the end of it.

 

[twabby]

I thought face offs dont matter? Ok, thats for another time. He gets a check mark for the face off win. More of that and he will get points. Your point is never that the points are coming and thus admit the points are required. You stand by points are not important. Nic Dowd could do what he did there.

If he goes ten games without a point, he will get scratched. He needs the production. That video is nothing without the goal at the end of it.

Given the way he is playing I think it's statistically unlikely that he will continue to to produce points at the rate he has. Kuznetsov has a career > 70% individual points percentage, meaning that he gets a point on > 70% of all goals scored while he is on the ice at 5v5. He's currently at 37.5% this season. The worst forward in the NHL over the past 3 seasons is Patrick Marleau, at 47%. His low point-scoring rate is not statistically sustainable for this reason.

On top of that, he's suffering from the 4th worst on-ice shooting percentage on the team at on 7.77%. His career average is 10%. I would expect this number to rise as well, which would also contribute to his point-scoring rate to increase.

I expect both his IPP and his on-ice shooting percentage to increase closer to their normal numbers, given that he is producing quality chances at a rate much higher than any of his teammates and higher than his career averages. But even in the incredibly unlikely scenario that his point scoring rate doesn't increase I wouldn't care because he is still outscoring the opposition by 1.24 goals every 60 minutes when he is on the ice. And what's better is that his expected goal differential is 0.96 goals every 60 minutes while he is on the ice, meaning his actual goal differential isn't too far out of whack. His on-ice success is largely sustainable.

 

[kicksavedave]

If he goes ten games without a point, he will get scratched. He needs the production. That video is nothing without the goal at the end of it.

Also, I doubt he gets scratched if he goes 10 games without a point if he's playing the right way. I also doubt he could go 10 games without any points, but the idea of variance in production is somewhat nullified by fancy stats. Fancy stats suggest you are playing the right way, doing the right things. Scoring involves those things too, but also involves some luck, some bounces. It was my point earlier that if he's playing the right way, the production will come, variance will smooth out, and he'll return to his normal rates. Lets just all hope he also gets hot/lucky soon and piles on some points so this debate doesn't go on forever.