Post-Game Talk: Caps @ Flyers 7:00pm

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hb12xchamps

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People freak out over these 2, 3, 4 game pointless streaks like they mean something. It's pretty typical noise for a season, even for a top line forward. If Kuzy continues to put up underlying numbers like he is currently, he will produce. He's also far from the only player with disappointing even-strength numbers this season (Oshie only has one even strength goal, for instance). The Caps top powerplay has buoyed several of their stars' numbers and masked ES issues across their offense. It's not surprising that the guys who don't get regular PP1 time (Kuzy, Vrana) have been singled out more than those who do.
He’s currently producing at a .43 PPG pace. That’s the reason he’s getting singled out. People shit on Backstrom last season and he outproduced Kuz last year as well. I love Kuznetsov, but I completely understand why fans are frustrated with paying a player $7.8 million a year to produce at a .43 PPG pace
 

CapitalsCupReality

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I would argue the 22 players are all getting paid for team wins? Are they not?

then let’s pay them all the same....Kuzy....you now make $3 mil. I’d argue he’s a bargain then!



You know damn well he got his 7.8 cap hit for actual offensive production and that’s what’s expected.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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He’s currently producing at a .43 PPG pace. That’s the reason he’s getting singled out. People shit on Backstrom last season and he outproduced Kuz last year as well. I love Kuznetsov, but I completely understand why fans are frustrated with paying a player $7.8 million a year to produce at a .43 PPG pace

YES THIS!

I LOVE Kuzy! I don’t love people pretending they or the Caps are happy paying 7.8 for this.
 
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twabby

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then let’s pay them all the same....Kuzy....you now make $3 mil. I’d argue he’s a bargain then!



You know damn well he got his 7.8 cap hit for actual offensive production and that’s what’s expected.

What should be expected is him contributing to the team winning in a significant way. He's doing that, and the team is winning.

I suggest you focus more on what a player is doing to help the team win instead of points. Otherwise, we'd come to the conclusion that John Carlson has had a fantastic season. After all, his point totals are great.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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What should be expected is him contributing to the team winning in a significant way. He's doing that, and the team is winning.

I suggest you focus more on what a player is doing to help the team win instead of points. Otherwise, we'd come to the conclusion that John Carlson has had a fantastic season. After all, his point totals are great.

stop your whataboutism defense nonsense.


so please answer this with a simple yes or no....so we can establish your position clearly.

In your opinion, are the Capitals (coaches, Management, etc) happy with his current game and production levels?
 

g00n

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What did the fancy stats say about the Cup winning team?
 

g00n

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Regarding Kuzy, where is the passing?

He used to be an excellent passer of the puck. He'd make a sneaky pass through traffic that somehow made it though. Haven't seen much of that from him this season.

Kuzy tries to make the fancy, low-percentage play way too often. I get that it's sort of his thing to be creative and daring but it's gotten to the point of diminishing returns, and even a net negative.

In short he needs to simplify his game and have more discipline when it comes to playing a solid team game. Stop trying to force the highlight reel play and make the best play for the situation instead.
 

CapitalsCupReality

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I can only guess, but yes I think they are happy. I think they probably, like me, see his production level increasing because he has been very unlucky so far.


Noted.....


And yeah, sure, Lavi and company are sitting there watching video saying, damn that Kuzy, so good, but soooooo unlucky!

I’m patient, 6 more games until he’s played 20....let’s see if he’s still at his current .43 PPG (11g, 33pt pace/82 games)....

I would expect we start seeing a ton of praise from coaches, teammates and pundits, increased ice time, etc....all the perks that typically come with a team being happy with a star player’s performance.
 

g00n

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Yes, please refer to the prior discussion about luck also being a large factor in hockey.

You're coming off as very disingenuous or desperate in your defense of the stats you prefer, at all costs.

Your hallowed xGF for the Caps in 2017-2018 was 27th in the league.
They were last in the league in HDF% (high danger chances for and against ratio).
Actual goals scored they were 6th.

Eventually, they finished First.

Hmmm
 

twabby

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You're coming off as very disingenuous or desperate in your defense of the stats you prefer, at all costs.

Your hallowed xGF for the Caps in 2017-2018 was 27th in the league.
They were last in the league in HDF% (high danger chances for and against ratio).
Actual goals scored they were 6th.

Eventually, they finished First.

Hmmm

I've already gone over in detail what I think the predictive power of xGF% is. It's not 100% predictive, nowhere close. Having a good xGF% indicates that a team has some edge over the league in general, but that edge isn't huge. Goaltending is also another area that is hugely important, but also subject to huge amounts of luck. Same with shooting talent, where certain players are better shooters but again results are subject to wild swings in variance. Special teams too, where you can do everything reasonably in your control to score or prevent a goal but the puck just goes in your own net off a player's ass, or an otherwise perfect saucer pass hits a divot in the ice and renders the chance harmless, etc.

A team needs good luck to win the Stanley Cup, and the Capitals got that in 2018.

You're very good at asking questions but you've never answered: how would you characterize the role luck plays in the game in hockey?

I really do think this is the key reason why I disagree with you and others on the value of statistical analysis.
 
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kicksavedave

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I've already gone over in detail what I think the predictive power of xGF% is. It's not 100% predictive, nowhere close. Having a good xGF% indicates that a team has an edge over the league in general, but that edge isn't huge. A team needs good luck to win the Stanley Cup, and the Capitals got that in 2018.

You mean like when CBus hits a post in 2OT of game 3, the Caps avoid a 3 games to none hole?
 

twabby

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You mean like when CBus hits a post in 2OT of game 3, the Caps avoid a 3 games to none hole?

No that was just hard work and tenacity on the Capitals' part. I think Tom Wilson spooked Panarin at the last second and caused him to shoot an inch wide of his target.

Edit: and he also spooked Atkinson too when he also hit the post.
 
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