Post-Game Talk: Capitals @ Oilers 10/22/14 9:30 PM Caps Lose 3-2

[tycoonheart]

here's the thing. when you shoot 40 pucks at the crowd of players in front of the net, a percentage of them will deflect into the net. What do you think all the coaching talk about getting more traffic in front of the goalie is about. its about standing directly between the goalie and the shooter and bringing a defenseman with you.

If we had players on this team who tussled in front of the net and put pucks in I'd say throwing pucks at the net is a good plan. But we don't. Its almost like our boys are blind to rebounds. We haven't had anyone who is a reliable presence in front of opposition net. We just don't.

 

[BobRouse]

BR why do you think teams with less offensive talent play the smothering styles and rely on goaltenders to come up big? It's because it's the only thing that works against a team with better players. Its like the Montreal series could never happen again. Well obviously it could. simply saying we were the better position team mean nothing when the scoreboard does not go your way. And the whole point of playing the kind of game that Montreal did in the playoffs and Florida and Edmonton have done is to make the scoreboard go your way regardless of possession. You can't bank on possession alone being enough 9 times out of 10 when we have already seen it fail in a seven game series.

Defintiely you are right. These teams do use that style against superior opponents.

We did it to Pittsburgh in 1994 and to Boston and Ottawa in 98.

I like to use the following analogy:

I used to goto Vegas to play Blackjack all the time and sometimes my mom would go with me too.

Now its a pretty simple game and there is a strategy to it. For example the odds are that if the dealer is showing a face card and you have a "hard" 16 that you should take another card. At this point your odds of winning are low but if you take a card they are better than if you hold pat.

My mom would be all over the place. She would not take a card. And sometimes she'd win thus reinforcing her stance.

There are times when you should "double down" as the odds indicate its very favorable to the player. I do that all the time. Sometimes I lose.

There is always chance and variables out of your control. The best way to handle it is to maximize your odds.

That Caps are doing that. They are doing pretty much all the right things within their power. Sometimes the cards just don't fall your way but that doesn't mean you should stray from maximizing them.

Sure we could revert to the trap. Fight fire with fire. thats what Boudreau and Hunter did. Personally I thought our odds were much better without the trap but we lost anyhow.

It sucks that we lost. I wasn't thrilled we had to goto OT vs Florida and win in a shootout. But we did outplay our opponent in each game and outchanced them. We should have won both in regulation. Pucks didn't go in for us.

 

[g00n]

Defintiely you are right. These teams do use that style against superior opponents.

We did it to Pittsburgh in 1994 and to Boston and Ottawa in 98.

I like to use the following analogy:

I used to goto Vegas to play Blackjack all the time and sometimes my mom would go with me too.

Now its a pretty simple game and there is a strategy to it. For example the odds are that if the dealer is showing a face card and you have a "hard" 16 that you should take another card. At this point your odds of winning are low but if you take a card they are better than if you hold pat.

My mom would be all over the place. She would not take a card. And sometimes she'd win thus reinforcing her stance.

There are times when you should "double down" as the odds indicate its very favorable to the player. I do that all the time. Sometimes I lose.

There is always chance and variables out of your control. The best way to handle it is to maximize your odds.

That Caps are doing that. They are doing pretty much all the right things within their power. Sometimes the cards just don't fall your way but that doesn't mean you should stray from maximizing them.

Sure we could revert to the trap. Fight fire with fire. thats what Boudreau and Hunter did. Personally I thought our odds were much better without the trap but we lost anyhow.

It sucks that we lost. I wasn't thrilled we had to goto OT vs Florida and win in a shootout. But we did outplay our opponent in each game and outchanced them. We should have won both in regulation. Pucks didn't go in for us.

this is about adapting to fluid strategies employed by professional athletes. This is not about simple mathematical probabilities like in blackjack. you are not statistically guaranteed to win a Cup or even a game if you shoot X amount of shots or have Y corsi no matter how big the sample size.

 

[BobRouse]

this is about adapting to fluid strategies employed by professional athletes. This is not about simple mathematical probabilities like in blackjack. you are not statistically guaranteed to win a Cup or even a game if you shoot X amount of shots or have Y corsi no matter how big the sample size.

Right but if you outshoot, outchance, outhit your opponent and have the puck 2/3rds of the game then it stands to reason that you have a better chance at winning and most likely will win most games.

That doesn't mean you can't lose a 7 game series however as we very well know.

The Bruins in 98 dominated us for the most part. We won that series in 6 games. Kolzig had like a 97% sv pctg. Not sure what more the Bs could have done there.

Same with us in 2010.

Not everything can be controlled and there is another team full of professionals on the other side trying to win.

 

[txpd]

this is about adapting to fluid strategies employed by professional athletes. This is not about simple mathematical probabilities like in blackjack. you are not statistically guaranteed to win a Cup or even a game if you shoot X amount of shots or have Y corsi no matter how big the sample size.

no...you are right. that's when hot goalie comes into play. right? holtby was better than Thomas that year and the caps won.

here's what we know. its not impossible to score a goal without shooting the puck at the net but its unlikely. the more shots and the net the more likely it finds a way in the net. go back to the caps pens series. the pens are down 2-0 and win two ot games on passes that deflect of caps defensemen for penguins winners.

 

[tycoonheart]

Right but if you outshoot, outchance, outhit your opponent and have the puck 2/3rds of the game then it stands to reason that you have a better chance at winning and most likely will win most games.

That doesn't mean you can't lose a 7 game series however as we very well know.

The Bruins in 98 dominated us for the most part. We won that series in 6 games. Kolzig had like a 97% sv pctg. Not sure what more the Bs could have done there.

Same with us in 2010.

Not everything can be controlled and there is another team full of professionals on the other side trying to win.

Meh, I don't read much into those stats.

For crying out loud, the 'Skins offense and defense both are in the top 10 and we're one of the worst teams in the league.

I'm going by what I saw and I don't think we outplayed them by much. 3rd period, definitely. But we were also desperate because were were down by 1. They did a good job keeping the shots outside and they got the W.

 

[Langway]

Not everything can be controlled and there is another team full of professionals on the other side trying to win.

But there is plenty within their control that they still do not give proper attention. They don't crash the net enough and they don't really break down defenses much with sustained attacking outside of dishing back to the point men. Anyone can do that. Grinders can do that. The RDs are really good so there's some sense in it but the forwards on whole remain unimpressive from a habit standpoint. Their most effective 5-on-5 forward is a 19 year old rookie.

So, yes, tip your cap to Edmonton clogging lanes when they weren't being countered but there's plenty of things a team can control and strategize for when they have possession beyond merely having possession to begin with. That's Trotz's biggest obstacle at the moment. Team defense is largely fine--maybe even ahead of schedule--but if they're going to have the puck more they need to manage ways to be more dynamic with it. Some of that is on the players but on a fundamental level there are better habits that can be executed. Keep in mind they were ranked lower in 5-on-5 GF/60 than GA/60 last year so even with a thin blueline and Oates micromanaging Holtby the 5-on-5 offense managed to rank lower. An approach overlooking offensive fundamentals is a poor one and they've long relied way too much on individualism.

 

[g00n]

But there is plenty within their control that they still do not give proper attention. They don't crash the net enough and they don't really break down defenses much with sustained attacking outside of dishing back to the point men. Anyone can do that. Grinders can do that. The RDs are really good so there's some sense in it but the forwards on whole remain unimpressive from a habit standpoint. Their most effective 5-on-5 forward is a 19 year old rookie.

So, yes, tip your cap to Edmonton clogging lanes when they weren't being countered but there's plenty of things a team can control and strategize for when they have possession beyond merely having possession to begin with. That's Trotz's biggest obstacle at the moment. Team defense is largely fine--maybe even ahead of schedule--but if they're going to have the puck more they need to manage ways to be more dynamic with it. Some of that is on the players but on a fundamental level there are better habits that can be executed. Keep in mind they were ranked lower in 5-on-5 GF/60 than GA/60 last year so even with a thin blueline and Oates micromanaging Holtby the 5-on-5 offense managed to rank lower. An approach overlooking offensive fundamentals is a poor one and they've long relied way too much on individualism.

The answer depends on the tactic being countered, of course.

Problem #1 is line composition. It's not as bad as under Oates, not by a long shot. Taking Fehr off the top line was a mistake, imo. I understand what Trotz was trying to do but I'd rather have 3 lines humming and dangerous than one grinding line maybe getting hot.

Problem #2 is blocked shots. The simple answer is more fakes and better anticipation off the puck by players who could step into a passing lane created by the downed defender. There's a difference between firing through holes in traffic and looking for rebounds vs just mindlessly shooting into bodies.

Problem #3 is trap-breaking. We are not going to skate through these traps and brainless dumping won't work, either. Hitting the zone with speed as a team, spacing, stretch passes, pass accuracy in general, and making the right read for the dump based on the defenders (strong vs weakside focus) will give the best chance of gaining the zone and maintaining possession. Start firing them on net from inside center if the opposing goalie is cheating a bit, just to keep him honest.

Essentially, I believe we've teleported back to the post-MTL series days with this team. The roster is good enough and the coach is competent. It's a question of whether or not he can make adjustments for how other teams are playing a shoot-first, puck-handling, often-gliding collection of individuals who sometimes play 60 minutes.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You're not doing this right. You are using reason amd emotional composure. You need to: lose faith in our new coach; rearrange all four lines for him; panic over the loss to a bottom-tier team; and make cynical reference to impending Mike Green injury and to Jay Beagle's recurring magic trick of popping up in a top-6 spot.

Only then will you be a complete, 2-way HFBoarder.

That's funny. Funny sad, not funny haha, but still funny.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

More than that I'd say they tripled or quadroupled them in quality chances.

Despite having the puck all game they doubled them up in hits too.

Scrivens channeled his inner-Halak circa 2010


I'm surprised by the nuclear meltdown of some folks here to be honest.

It's a riot to me to read. It's a long damned season. Last year it was sweating Wilson's development, this year it's Kuzy. So much worrying for nothing this early in the season.

 

[artilector]

I don't think this loss means anything long term, I just found it really annoying, lol.

I would say the game illustrated how the Caps (continue to) have problems with quick scrappy teams, especially if they are disciplined (or when they are disciplined).

Executing the game plan is one part of it. The other part of it, IMO, is that the Caps for a long time have lacked quick players, overall. Not talking about top speed, I mean acceleration and shiftiness.

Bura is a good example -- he seems to be clearly the quickest player the Caps have right now, and it's a huge reason why his line is able to maintain decent offensive zone time. Chimmer-Fehr-Ward do it using a combination of effort-size-reach-chemistry. Top line, at least without Fehr, again looks like it's only so-so at even strength.

I dunno if there's a simple way for Caps to get better against smaller buzzing teams. Ideally, I'd want to replace guys like Brouwer & Laich with quicker role players, or at least better forecheckers a la Fehr.. not sure about MJ, maybe with Bura he's getting better. In particular, I think Ovi & Backstrom need a real hound on their line..

 

[txpd]

If we had players on this team who tussled in front of the net and put pucks in I'd say throwing pucks at the net is a good plan. But we don't. Its almost like our boys are blind to rebounds. We haven't had anyone who is a reliable presence in front of opposition net. We just don't.

we do have those in front of the net players. maybe not as many as we would like. but they are there. one of those players scored a goal on a deflection while screening the goalie recently that was disallowed for a high stick. I don't remember who that was, but he was in fact in that dirty area, paying the price.

 

[Raikkonen]

we do have those in front of the net players. maybe not as many as we would like. but they are there. one of those players scored a goal on a deflection while screening the goalie recently that was disallowed for a high stick. I don't remember who that was, but he was in fact in that dirty area, paying the price.

Hahaha, nice!

 

[BackToTheBasics]

I am sorry. I don't get this. Didn't the second line....Burakovsky's line score the Caps only ES goal in that game?

Anyone who has played with Bura has looked good so far. Sure they scored the only ES goal but did Beagle have that big an impact? Beagle doesn't suit Mojo and Buras style of play. He dumps it in too often when they could have a controlled entrance into the zone. He has no offensive upside at all.

 

[txpd]

Anyone who has played with Bura has looked good so far. Sure they scored the only ES goal but did Beagle have that big an impact? Beagle doesn't suit Mojo and Buras style of play. He dumps it in too often when they could have a controlled entrance into the zone. He has no offensive upside at all.

I am not sure what impact Beagle had on that goal Bura and Beagle double teamed the Oiler with the puck in the corner and Bura skated out with it. Did Beagle effect that? I don't know.

I am not a Beagle fan in the slightest. I would be fine if they didn't dress him. But were it Brown or Latta or Beagle, I have no problem with them skating three injury fill in games with 65 and 90. They had several quality scoring chances and could have scored at least one more. They just didn't. Beagle had a good chance on a rebound.

What's interesting to me is that as a result of not wanting Beagle on 2 and Kuz on4 there is now this idea that all the lines are messed up.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

I am not sure what impact Beagle had on that goal Bura and Beagle double teamed the Oiler with the puck in the corner and Bura skated out with it. Did Beagle effect that? I don't know.

I am not a Beagle fan in the slightest. I would be fine if they didn't dress him. But were it Brown or Latta or Beagle, I have no problem with them skating three injury fill in games with 65 and 90. They had several quality scoring chances and could have scored at least one more. They just didn't. Beagle had a good chance on a rebound.

What's interesting to me is that as a result of not wanting Beagle on 2 and Kuz on4 there is now this idea that all the lines are messed up.

Brouwer on the first line isn't working. He, Backstrom and Ovi just don't have chemistry. Fehr's line were too soft in the d-zone. Chimmer and Wardo looked like they were sleeping in the defensive zone all game.

The 2nd and 4th lines are fine but the 3rd and 1st lines need to change. Fehr, Ovi and Nicky worked really well but he separated them. I'd rather Beags or better yet Kuzzy at 3c. Brouwer can then move back to 2RW.

 

[g00n]

The "green line" magic was probably a product of circumstances. Teams are likely not rolling their lines against the Trotz Caps the way they were against the Oates Caps. That means different matchups for the "green line" and possibly the ability to shine in the microcosm of Oates' hair-brained schemes.

It's likely a matter of Chimmer and Ward just playing better, and someone fitting in at that center spot. Move Fehr back up to the top line, Beagle to the 4th line, and Kuz to center the 3rd. Work any other kinks out from there.

 

[Halpysback*]

Screw this crap I'm done with this team

 

[strungout]

Screw this crap I'm done with this team

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Screw this crap I'm done with this team

Plenty of room on the Semin bandwagon down in Carolina!

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Reading this thread only confirms that I made the correct choice in selecting my user name. It's as much about the fan base to include this board as it was about how the team has performed over the past few years.

 

[Capitlols]

Shouldn't have stayed up for the game. Nice of them to show up for 1/3 of a game.

 

[txpd]

Ward has two. Chimera 1. to get 20 is 10 goals for every 40 games. 2.5 per each 10. Ward is there and Chimara 1 goal off of that. I don't see that they are not doing fine

edit: watched the Trotz post game. Not happy with Chimera. He nearly got benched for a bad penalty in the previous game and then takes the offensive zone penalty that gives up a ppg.

 

[Corby78]

Shouldn't have stayed up for the game. Nice of them to show up for 1/3 of a game.

? They pretty much outplayed them for 60 minutes

 

[Ajax1995]

Screw this crap I'm done with this team

Seriously? 1st regulation loss in 6 games and that is the straw that broke the camel's back? How'd you possibly last this long...?