Salary Cap: Cap Space For Sale

[Sen sational]

Cap space is an asset and if we don’t use all of our 2019/2020 space we lose an asset. Ottawa doesn’t need to “keep some” in case we want a UFA at the TDL. Can Ottawa afford to not use it?

Ottawa will be a cap floor team so will have approximately $20 million of unused space along with an additional $10 million of its own LTIR in Gaborik and McArthur. 2020/2021 we will likely also have a lot of cap space.

There are a lot of teams with cap trouble: Vegas; Tampa; Washington; Toronto; Winnipeg; Detroit; Edmonton (no to Lucic). There are a number of teams that are on the cusp of competing that might want to sign UFAs to put them over the top next year: Carolina; Phoenix; Florida.

Ottawa has a “thrifty” owner, but as a businessman he should recognize the benefit of getting assets on sale. Assuming Melnyk has a longer term view of his re-build and maintaining a competitive team, consistently making the playoffs, he will spend a bit more today for future revenue.

My premise is that with today’s salary cap, teams will only be able to remain at the top if they are able to have higher end prospects on cheap ELC and RFA contracts to support high end talent. Dorion drafts well, if we can grab more 1st and 2nd round picks now they can be turned into players and converted back to picks, in trades, in the future.

danielpalfredsson has done some really interesting work on different scenarios, hopefully he will add them in this thread.

There seems to be a lot of pressure for Marleau to be moved on so Toronto can access his cap space to sign their younger players. Marleau has a NMC but the thought was that he might agree to go back to SJS. SJS don’t have cap space for Marleau’s $6.25 million if they sign Karlsson, but if TO pays his bonus before trading him to Ottawa with their 2020 2nd round pick and Ottawa eats $5 million of cap and $1 million of salary this would give SJS a cheap 3rd or 4th liner.

What cap dumps, 3rd party salary retention’s, and other would you propose?

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[topshelf15]

As long as it cost,s no actual dollars then we could help.....

 

[Riceroni]

I think with Marleau it would have to be that he's traded on July 2nd (after the bonus) and then Ottawa would have to buy him out. But, I'm not sure if Ottawa can actually do that. When is the buyout window? I know that there are two typically but Ottawa may not be eligible for the 2nd window unless they have some RFA's that go to arbitration or something like that. I'm not too familiar with that clause. I think the 1st window is from 48 hours after the cup final to maybe July 1st or something along those lines.

If Marleau were to retire and forgo the last $1.25M of salary then Ottawa should jump on that and get Toronto's 2nd in 2020 or 2021 to compensate.

I'd be more interested in trading though for actual players. I said if before but Nylander would be an amazing get if you can get him after July 1st as well. If all it costs is a 2020 1st (SJS) + Demelo and maybe eating something else then take it and run. He's only 22 and will return to his 60+ points/season starting next year.

 

[Sen sational]

I think with Marleau it would have to be that he's traded on July 2nd (after the bonus) and then Ottawa would have to buy him out. But, I'm not sure if Ottawa can actually do that. When is the buyout window? I know that there are two typically but Ottawa may not be eligible for the 2nd window unless they have some RFA's that go to arbitration or something like that. I'm not too familiar with that clause. I think the 1st window is from 48 hours after the cup final to maybe July 1st or something along those lines.

If Marleau were to retire and forgo the last $1.25M of salary then Ottawa should jump on that and get Toronto's 2nd in 2020 or 2021 to compensate.

I'd be more interested in trading though for actual players. I said if before but Nylander would be an amazing get if you can get him after July 1st as well. If all it costs is a 2020 1st (SJS) + Demelo and maybe eating something else then take it and run. He's only 22 and will return to his 60+ points/season starting next year.

Interesting idea, seems like Marleau still wants to play so not sure if he would agree to be traded to Ottawa to be bought out, I don't think he would be able to go back to Toronto after the buyout. There must be some way to benefit from Toronto's pain.

Nylander is interesting as well, a high end guy that you hate to walk away from. I would be looking to build a grittier team so I would pass on Nylander as I don't think his skill would translate to the playoffs.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Cap space is useless to us.

 

[Riceroni]

Interesting idea, seems like Marleau still wants to play so not sure if he would agree to be traded to Ottawa to be bought out, I don't think he would be able to go back to Toronto after the buyout. There must be some way to benefit from Toronto's pain.

Nylander is interesting as well, a high end guy that you hate to walk away from. I would be looking to build a grittier team so I would pass on Nylander as I don't think his skill would translate to the playoffs.

Grit is part of the equation but it should be a small part... you need skill to get to the playoffs... also, we have guys who are gritty in Tkachuk and a few others... but you do need both skill and grit to be successful.. I think skill is the overwhelming characteristic though... and, I'd be ok with seeing how a guy like Nylander could do in a Sens uniform...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think with Marleau it would have to be that he's traded on July 2nd (after the bonus) and then Ottawa would have to buy him out. But, I'm not sure if Ottawa can actually do that. When is the buyout window? I know that there are two typically but Ottawa may not be eligible for the 2nd window unless they have some RFA's that go to arbitration or something like that. I'm not too familiar with that clause. I think the 1st window is from 48 hours after the cup final to maybe July 1st or something along those lines.

If Marleau were to retire and forgo the last $1.25M of salary then Ottawa should jump on that and get Toronto's 2nd in 2020 or 2021 to compensate.

I'd be more interested in trading though for actual players. I said if before but Nylander would be an amazing get if you can get him after July 1st as well. If all it costs is a 2020 1st (SJS) + Demelo and maybe eating something else then take it and run. He's only 22 and will return to his 60+ points/season starting next year.

Nylander may be able to be bought low, but it will take more than a late first and a cheap ufa replacement level dman.

 

[Riceroni]

Nylander may be able to be bought low, but it will take more than a late first and a cheap ufa replacement level dman.

Ya, probably... the thing is is that his value will never be lower and TO will not be in this bad a cap situation again where they feel they may just want to cut bait and move on.

So, lets say that we need to add OTT 2020 2nd as well, fine... If lets say Nylander pans out that's a huge win..

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Interesting idea, seems like Marleau still wants to play so not sure if he would agree to be traded to Ottawa to be bought out, I don't think he would be able to go back to Toronto after the buyout. There must be some way to benefit from Toronto's pain.

Nylander is interesting as well, a high end guy that you hate to walk away from. I would be looking to build a grittier team so I would pass on Nylander as I don't think his skill would translate to the playoffs.

I think the Marleau situation is pretty mutually beneficial... maybe I am incorrect but... Ottawa gets and asset + closer to the cap floor while spending very little money, Toronto clears cap space, and Marleau gets to sign another contract which, along with the buyout, will likely lead to him taking in a higher salary.... win-win-win!

 

[Riceroni]

I think the Marleau situation is pretty mutually beneficial... maybe I am incorrect but... Ottawa gets and asset + closer to the cap floor while spending very little money, Toronto clears cap space, and Marleau gets to sign another contract which, along with the buyout, will likely lead to him taking in a higher salary.... win-win-win!

But, I think that's only if a team like Ottawa has the option for the 2nd buyout window

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

But, I think that's only if a team like Ottawa has the option for the 2nd buyout window

Yes that is true.... do you know who on our team is eligible for arbitration?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

We don't really have cap space for sale since this organization's MO is to spend as little as possible.

We need every single penny in order to sign Chabot to a contract this summer (and trade him for scraps once it is almost up) and White is also due for a substantial raise.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Anything that adds literally any additional real money is a non starter, even if the benefits of spending such a small amount lead to massive +'s for the Sens, historically this has really never occurred. In fact Ottawa has in the passed paid out exceptional assets in the form of picks for financial returns and even in those moves got poor return value imo.

Unfortunately Eugene has preached for many years now how broke he is, I believe savy professionals will realize that in fact the poor contracts for other teams would actually be of major benefit to cheap old uncle Eugene and thus the packages specially to him and his team should reflect this imo. I can't imagine he has really anyone supporting him and id imagine other GM's and owners screwing him would be looked at favorably behind closed doors, amongst all ownership groups.

 

[stempniaksen]

Unfortunately Eugene has preached for many years now how broke he is, I believe savy professionals will realize that in fact the poor contracts for other teams would actually be of major benefit to cheap old uncle Eugene and thus the packages specially to him and his team should reflect this imo. I can't imagine he has really anyone supporting him and id imagine other GM's and owners screwing him would be looked at favorably behind closed doors, amongst all ownership groups.

Wasn't this basically the rumours surrounding the Sens and taking on that Hossa deal (before it was shipped to Arizona)?

Grain of salt, cause I don't think there's anything confirming this, but the rumours swirling at the time were that Dorion inquired about what the Blackhawks would give the Senators to take on Hossa's LTIR contract and Bowman basically said "We're doing you a favour, we won't give up anything additional". I have a hard time believing Bowman stuck to his guns, since he eventually had to move a decent little player in Hinostroza to rid himself of Hossa's deal, but I think it's also clear that teams around the league know very well what position EM (and therefore the team) are in and the Sens might have trouble returning "typical" value for eating these types of deals.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Ya, probably... the thing is is that his value will never be lower and TO will not be in this bad a cap situation again where they feel they may just want to cut bait and move on.

So, lets say that we need to add OTT 2020 2nd as well, fine... If lets say Nylander pans out that's a huge win..

It's a fine idea if he could be had for so little, but I think that you're significantly undervaluing Nylander and what it would take to get him. A late 1st, 2nd and a throw in like Demelo isn't close to enough and many other teams would have no issue topping that.

 

[ottawah]

I cannot fathom why Marleau would have any interest in coming here. If he plays it is to win a cup, not get caught up in this circus act. And he has made 94M in his career, I do not think he cares about another smal lcontract to be here. To win a cup, yes, but not be here.

They would much prefer to get rid of Zaitsevs contract, but even if Ottawa waited until after the signing bonus is paid, he still is offered a lot of money and term on a contract for a player who was not that good this year.

but in any case this is cot cap floor crunch year, its two years from now. 65M is likely to be the cap floor, Ottawa has 18M in contracts signed, leaving us 47M short. Notable guys to replace/resign :

Bodeker - 4M (no raise here)
Pageau - 3M (can't see much change, maybe 1Mraise)
Tierney - 3M - (2M raise I'd guess)
White - 1M - 3M raise possible
Duclair - 1M - utter wild card. 0 - 5M
Ceci - 4M - 1M raise if we keep him.
Chabot - 1M - Lets go way off board and say +6M
Wolanin - 1M - say 3M raise.
Goaltenders - whomever we trade for/sign.

So I'm counting max 21M in raises, leaving us 26M short of the floor. And thats with Duclair signed at 6, which I doubt, but guess we will see.

New goaltender, maybe 5M on free agent market, 2M for backup. Every D needs to be signed (Brannstrom will not if on team), but outside of chabot/Wolanin those raises are likely to be minimal. Need 4 more forwards, but if there is an assumption it is Logan Brown, Formenton, Batherson, and one of the other young rookies they are not due raises. Likely still 20M short of the floor.

so all in all what I pick up from this is that the rookies may have to wait, or be traded just so we can reach the floor, or else salary cap dead space must be acquired (which is much harder to do).

 

[Upgrayedd]

Wasn't this basically the rumours surrounding the Sens and taking on that Hossa deal (before it was shipped to Arizona)?

Grain of salt, cause I don't think there's anything confirming this, but the rumours swirling at the time were that Dorion inquired about what the Blackhawks would give the Senators to take on Hossa's LTIR contract and Bowman basically said "We're doing you a favour, we won't give up anything additional". I have a hard time believing Bowman stuck to his guns, since he eventually had to move a decent little player in Hinostroza to rid himself of Hossa's deal, but I think it's also clear that teams around the league know very well what position EM (and therefore the team) are in and the Sens might have trouble returning "typical" value for eating these types of deals.

Had not heard of this rumour but yes this is exactly what I believe to be occurring as well, it's business anyone should take advantage of every opportunity they have at their disposal. As a rival GM/owner and all things considered I would be trying to swindle Gene and co literally every day as they clearly are weak in every area.

 

[TeamRenzo]

If we are helping a divisional rival then we better get something sweet in return.

 

[stempniaksen]

I cannot fathom why Marleau would have any interest in coming here. If he plays it is to win a cup, not get caught up in this circus act. And he has made 94M in his career, I do not think he cares about another smal lcontract to be here. To win a cup, yes, but not be here.

They would much prefer to get rid of Zaitsevs contract, but even if Ottawa waited until after the signing bonus is paid, he still is offered a lot of money and term on a contract for a player who was not that good this year.

but in any case this is cot cap floor crunch year, its two years from now. 65M is likely to be the cap floor, Ottawa has 18M in contracts signed, leaving us 47M short. Notable guys to replace/resign :

Bodeker - 4M (no raise here)
Pageau - 3M (can't see much change, maybe 1Mraise)
Tierney - 3M - (2M raise I'd guess)
White - 1M - 3M raise possible
Duclair - 1M - utter wild card. 0 - 5M
Ceci - 4M - 1M raise if we keep him.
Chabot - 1M - Lets go way off board and say +6M
Wolanin - 1M - say 3M raise.
Goaltenders - whomever we trade for/sign.

So I'm counting max 21M in raises, leaving us 26M short of the floor. And thats with Duclair signed at 6, which I doubt, but guess we will see.

New goaltender, maybe 5M on free agent market, 2M for backup. Every D needs to be signed (Brannstrom will not if on team), but outside of chabot/Wolanin those raises are likely to be minimal. Need 4 more forwards, but if there is an assumption it is Logan Brown, Formenton, Batherson, and one of the other young rookies they are not due raises. Likely still 20M short of the floor.

so all in all what I pick up from this is that the rookies may have to wait, or be traded just so we can reach the floor, or else salary cap dead space must be acquired (which is much harder to do).

Depending on the length of the deals it's entirely possible Chabot, Tkachuk and White eat up $20+ million of the money coming off the books. Add in another $3/4 million for Pageau/Tierney + Wolanin and that space is gone in a hurry.

I really don't think the floor will affect this team at any point in the coming years. We'll be tight, obviously, but not tight enough to seriously worry about it.

 

[Masked]

Yes that is true.... do you know who on our team is eligible for arbitration?

Duclair.

Something around Marleau would make sense if Ottawa bought him out and he then re-signed with Toronto at a much lower amount. Say Ottawa sends Condon with maybe some salary retained for Marleau and maybe a draft pick. Ottawa pays out less on Marleau than they would have for Condon. Toronto gains a significant amount of cap room and maybe gains a backup. Or maybe Condon is just buried in the minors.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Duclair.

Something around Marleau would make sense if Ottawa bought him out and he then re-signed with Toronto at a much lower amount. Say Ottawa sends Condon with maybe some salary retained for Marleau and maybe a draft pick. Ottawa pays out less on Marleau than they would have for Condon. Toronto gains a significant amount of cap room and maybe gains a backup. Or maybe Condon is just buried in the minors.

I just looked on capgeek.com... the full list is:

Duclair
Ceci
Hogberg
Paul
Rodewald
Tambellini
Klimchuk

I think the only two guys who might file are Duclair and Ceci.

I posted in the trade thread about dealing Ceci + Tierney + 2nd for Nylander, Zaitsev and Marleau (who we then buy out as you outlined). Maybe we throw in Condon too.

Basically, Nylander, Zaitsev + Marleau's buyout would only count as ~2.75mil in real salary if the trade is made after July 1st. Leafs gain ~15mil in cap space, upgrade their RD, gain a cheap young C who can replace some of Nylanders offense, and a decent pick too

Could be mutually beneficial

 

[Sweatred]

It's a fine idea if he could be had for so little, but I think that you're significantly undervaluing Nylander and what it would take to get him. A late 1st, 2nd and a throw in like Demelo isn't close to enough and many other teams would have no issue topping that.

I wouldn't trade Seider for Nylander. Nylander needs to be protected which also costs exposing one extra player.

 

[Masked]

I just looked on capgeek.com... the full list is:

Duclair
Ceci
Hogberg
Paul
Rodewald
Tambellini
Klimchuk

I think the only two guys who might file are Duclair and Ceci.

I posted in the trade thread about dealing Ceci + Tierney + 2nd for Nylander, Zaitsev and Marleau (who we then buy out as you outlined). Maybe we throw in Condon too.

Basically, Nylander, Zaitsev + Marleau's buyout would only count as ~2.75mil in real salary if the trade is made after July 1st. Leafs gain ~15mil in cap space, upgrade their RD, gain a cheap young C who can replace some of Nylanders offense, and a decent pick too

Could be mutually beneficial

The Leafs could get a much better return for Nylander than that. And while Zaitsev is cheap next season, he'll be getting $4.5 for many years after that.

 

[Sen sational]

I cannot fathom why Marleau would have any interest in coming here. If he plays it is to win a cup, not get caught up in this circus act. And he has made 94M in his career, I do not think he cares about another smal lcontract to be here. To win a cup, yes, but not be here.

They would much prefer to get rid of Zaitsevs contract, but even if Ottawa waited until after the signing bonus is paid, he still is offered a lot of money and term on a contract for a player who was not that good this year.

but in any case this is cot cap floor crunch year, its two years from now. 65M is likely to be the cap floor, Ottawa has 18M in contracts signed, leaving us 47M short. Notable guys to replace/resign :

Bodeker - 4M (no raise here)
Pageau - 3M (can't see much change, maybe 1Mraise)
Tierney - 3M - (2M raise I'd guess)
White - 1M - 3M raise possible
Duclair - 1M - utter wild card. 0 - 5M
Ceci - 4M - 1M raise if we keep him.
Chabot - 1M - Lets go way off board and say +6M
Wolanin - 1M - say 3M raise.
Goaltenders - whomever we trade for/sign.

So I'm counting max 21M in raises, leaving us 26M short of the floor. And thats with Duclair signed at 6, which I doubt, but guess we will see.

New goaltender, maybe 5M on free agent market, 2M for backup. Every D needs to be signed (Brannstrom will not if on team), but outside of chabot/Wolanin those raises are likely to be minimal. Need 4 more forwards, but if there is an assumption it is Logan Brown, Formenton, Batherson, and one of the other young rookies they are not due raises. Likely still 20M short of the floor.

so all in all what I pick up from this is that the rookies may have to wait, or be traded just so we can reach the floor, or else salary cap dead space must be acquired (which is much harder to do).

Marleau wouldn't be coming to Ottawa, in my proposal he would then be flipped to SJS. In the other proposal he could agree to come on the basis that he is then flipped to another contender of his choosing.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I cannot fathom why Marleau would have any interest in coming here. If he plays it is to win a cup, not get caught up in this circus act. And he has made 94M in his career, I do not think he cares about another smal lcontract to be here. To win a cup, yes, but not be here.

They would much prefer to get rid of Zaitsevs contract, but even if Ottawa waited until after the signing bonus is paid, he still is offered a lot of money and term on a contract for a player who was not that good this year.

but in any case this is cot cap floor crunch year, its two years from now. 65M is likely to be the cap floor, Ottawa has 18M in contracts signed, leaving us 47M short. Notable guys to replace/resign :

Bodeker - 4M (no raise here)
Pageau - 3M (can't see much change, maybe 1Mraise)
Tierney - 3M - (2M raise I'd guess)
White - 1M - 3M raise possible
Duclair - 1M - utter wild card. 0 - 5M
Ceci - 4M - 1M raise if we keep him.
Chabot - 1M - Lets go way off board and say +6M
Wolanin - 1M - say 3M raise.
Goaltenders - whomever we trade for/sign.

So I'm counting max 21M in raises, leaving us 26M short of the floor. And thats with Duclair signed at 6, which I doubt, but guess we will see.

New goaltender, maybe 5M on free agent market, 2M for backup. Every D needs to be signed (Brannstrom will not if on team), but outside of chabot/Wolanin those raises are likely to be minimal. Need 4 more forwards, but if there is an assumption it is Logan Brown, Formenton, Batherson, and one of the other young rookies they are not due raises. Likely still 20M short of the floor.

so all in all what I pick up from this is that the rookies may have to wait, or be traded just so we can reach the floor, or else salary cap dead space must be acquired (which is much harder to do).

We shouldn't ever have an issue hitting the floor. Even this upcoming season we're already at 45 million with only 14 players signed. Cap floor should be at 60 give or take. If there is any truth to both Ceci and the Senators being mutually interested in an extension, that brings us up to 50 million with 15 signed. Colin White on a bridge (I think we should go long term though) is 2 million minimum, 52 with 16 signed. At that point, it's a non-issue since we only have to spend an average of 1.15 million on 7 skates to hit a 60 million floor.

Even long term, we'll have no issue hitting the floor. Chabot is going to take 7-9 million on a 6-8 year deal. Tkachuk will be in a similar range. White is more difficult to predict. If we bridge him, we could be looking at 5-6 million on his third contract.

A starting goalie will always cost 4.5 million or more. There might be transitional periods where a team has a starter on their RFA deal, but that usually doesn't last very long. Whether Gustavsson or Daccord become a starter, or we sign/trade for one, we probably pay around 4.5 or higher for a starter.

I think Batherson is going to break out, and unless we idiotically bridge him, he'll be making close to 7 million if not more starting in 2022.

Pageau is a UFA. There hasn't been a lot of talk about whether we will trade or re-sign him, but he will cost in excess of 4 million to re-sign, maybe 4.5.

About 3 years from now, I think Chabot, Ceci, Brannstrom, White, Batherson, Tkachuk, JGP, and a starting goalie could easily take up 45-50 million in cap space. That's only 7/23 players. I really don't think we'll ever have trouble hitting the floor.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't use our cap space to take on low salary/high cap hit contracts to get assets, but I think people are wrong when they perceive the Senators hitting the floor as being a problem.