News Article: Cap going up to $78M-$82M next year

[Menzinger]

7m is pretty steep considering pastrnak got 34g/70pts in 75 games and only managed 6.66

Nylander should be around 60pts again. I think Ehlers is a pretty good comparable so prob around 6m.
maybe give him 6.25 if he agrees to 8 years

Though Pasta (and Elhers) for that matter signed their recent deals after only 1 season of above average play. Depending on how Nylander will have two and will be more proven during his negotiations.

The their issue is how many UFA years the Leafs want to buy from him.

 

[LeafFever]

Great news. Let's bring in an expansion team every year.

 

[Confucius]

Roll the dice hoping they don't hit their potential?

Not at all, I hope they do but I wouldn’t handcuff myself if they don’t. If they do hit their potential I believe it won’t be Mathews money. Hopefully they become 9 million dollar players. The risk of giving them 7 or 8 years at ~7 million to save 2 million per year is too great if they don’t improve over last year let alone this year. Currently I’d give them 7 but only on a short 2 or 3 year deal.

Unfortunately I think one will flop, hope not but as we’ve seen in Edmoanaton not everyone pans out even though everything points out that they should.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Tavares to Toronto confirmed.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

might be enough to keep JVR around,,,, Moore, Bozak and Leo still need to go

That's a good news and some flexibility to sign the core players and also the FA

Cap goes up for everyone. The cap increase is only really beneficial for teams that have long term contracts signed before players became aware of a larger-than-expected increase in cap.

 

[Hockeyholic]

What are the odds Bozak is brought back?

 

[Buds17]

What are the odds Bozak is brought back?

Personally don't see it. I think that's a move about whether or not there's a spot available more than it is about the increase in cap.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Good to hear, that'll make raises for the kids easier to digest.

Still just because the extra cap space is there doesn't mean they have to spend it all this off-season. Have to account for contract inflation and keep flexibility for future years.

 

[Leafidelity]

Makes you wonder if the Leafs own capologists predicted a jump while negotiating with Marleau

 

[LeafFever]

Makes you wonder if the Leafs own capologists predicted a jump while negotiating with Marleau

With an expansion team coming in it did not take a genius. Seattle is more great news. Bring em' in!

 

[Legion34]

With an expansion team coming in it did not take a genius. Seattle is more great news. Bring em' in!

My only concern is that these will be short spikes. Followed by years of poor revenue the cap can’t go down I am assuming???

 

[Legion34]

Though Pasta (and Elhers) for that matter signed their recent deals after only 1 season of above average play. Depending on how Nylander will have two and will be more proven during his negotiations.

The their issue is how many UFA years the Leafs want to buy from him.

But those players had high trajectories too.

Going from say 20,40,60 points is better than

60, 50 etc.

 

[ULF_55]

Can't see Islander having any issues going max on Tavares now. He's on pace for 90 points? So is is Bailey? Okay, so what did the Islanders do over the summer to make this happen? Barzal and Eberle?

 

[Mess]

But those players had high trajectories too.

Going from say 20,40,60 points is better than

60, 50 etc.

Agreed.

Both Pastrnak and Ehlers resigned their new deals on an upwards projector statistically and were both better goals and points than Willie last summer.

They're better than Nylander this year statistically.

2017-18
Pastrnak ... 26 games 14-11-25 points [= 82 games 44 goals 35 assists 79 points] @ $6.67 mil AAV.
Ehlers ....... 29 games 12-10-22 points [=82 games 34 goals 28 assists 62 points] @ $6.0 mil AAV.
vs
Nylander ...29 games 5-15-20 points [= 82 games 14 goals 42 assists 57 points] = ?? AAV

Nylander at his current pace is declining from 61 points to 57 point pace (declining as opposed increasing) and at present his comparables Pastrnak +30 more goals and Ehlers +20 more goals than Nylander based on current pace.

 

[Barilko14]

Question for some of our capologist.

Are we going to have a lot of dead cap space next season? In order to avoid having bonuses carry forward to 19/20 and hit us same year M & M new contracts, I'm thinking we'll need to keep Hortons contract on the cap.

So... approx $4M in 17/18 bonuses coming forward, Hortons contract $5m, then enough space for us to absorb 18/19 at end of year - another approx. $4M.

$80 cap - $4M, - $5m, - $4M = $67m to spend.

Anyone agree this is what our cap will look like next year?

Bump @White Shadow

Pretty sure you were a poster I remember had good cap knowledge.

 

[Anthrax442]

Hello Tavares!

 

[rent free]

7m is pretty steep considering pastrnak got 34g/70pts in 75 games and only managed 6.66

Nylander should be around 60pts again. I think Ehlers is a pretty good comparable so prob around 6m.
maybe give him 6.25 if he agrees to 8 years

pasta only got 6.66 because he'd hit free agency quicker. he took less salary exchange for hitting the market at a prime age (27). if nylander takes an 8 yr deal, it will be worth 7.5 or 8 million

 

[White Shadow]

Bump @White Shadow

Pretty sure you were a poster I remember had good cap knowledge.

The performance bonuses for 17/18 could be as much as $5.5M and $4.5M for 18/19, but that is for the present roster. Those numbers could go up if any of Rosen, Liljegren, Aaltonen or Johnsson are hitting bonuses in 17/18(not likely). But, in 18/19, I wouldn't be surprised if Lilj ($4ook) or Rosen ($850k) hit their bonus targets.
Horton is $5.3M

You've pretty much got it though.

 

[Suntouchable13]

What are the odds Bozak is brought back?

Why? Hopefully they move on. It's time. Enough. He has declined pretty badly this season. I am sure you can get his production from this season from someone on an ELC.

 

[Dzonna]

Tavares.

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed.

Both Pastrnak and Ehlers resigned their new deals on an upwards projector statistically and were both better goals and points than Willie last summer.

They're better than Nylander this year statistically.

2017-18
Pastrnak ... 26 games 14-11-25 points [= 82 games 44 goals 35 assists 79 points] @ $6.67 mil AAV.
Ehlers ....... 29 games 12-10-22 points [=82 games 34 goals 28 assists 62 points] @ $6.0 mil AAV.
vs
Nylander ...29 games 5-15-20 points [= 82 games 14 goals 42 assists 57 points] = ?? AAV

Nylander at his current pace is declining from 61 points to 57 point pace (declining as opposed increasing) and at present his comparables Pastrnak +30 more goals and Ehlers +20 more goals than Nylander based on current pace.

Pasta and Elhers current production is irrelevant to Nylander’s contract. What matters is their stats at the time of their signings.

Nylander’s goal scoring is down this season to some horrendous puck luck but he’s also 3rd in terms of total points for the team. Assists matter too.

 

[Mess]

Pasta and Elhers current production is irrelevant to Nylander’s contract. What matters is their stats at the time of their signings.

Nylander’s goal scoring is down this season to some horrendous puck luck but he’s also 3rd in terms of total points for the team. Assists matter too.

Goal scorers have a better negotiating position than just points as they're seen as more valuable. Matthews beat Laine for the Calder because Auston scored more goals while Laine had a better PPG rate (but less goals).

Pastrnak put up 34 goals and 74 points in his contract year and got 6.67 mil AAV, while Nylander is on pace for 14 goals and 57 points in his contract year.

Pastrnak is on pace for 44 goals this year ater 1/3rd a season while Nylander will need to have a strong next 2/3rds to hopefully get into the mid 20's.

Presently Lou Lam and Leafs hold the advantage based on Nylander's current stats and projection.

Nylander's agent at present best negotiating position is the possibility of the Cap jumping from $76 mil to $82 mil, so he can get a bigger slice of a bigger pie to divide than when Pastrnak and Ehlers signed their deals despite outplaying Willie as his comparables. That is what his agent will argue anyways.

 

[Menzinger]

Goal scorers have a better negotiating position than just points as they're seen as more valuable. Matthews beat Laine for the Calder because Auston scored more goals while Laine had a better PPG rate (but less goals).

Pastrnak put up 34 goals and 74 points in his contract year and got 6.67 mil AAV, while Nylander is on pace for 14 goals and 57 points in his contract year.

Pastrnak is on pace for 44 goals this year ater 1/3rd a season while Nylander will need to have a strong next 2/3rds to hopefully get into the mid 20's.

Presently Lou Lam and Leafs hold the advantage based on Nylander's current stats and projection.

Nylander's agent at present best negotiating position is the possibility of the Cap jumping from $76 mil to $82 mil, so he can get a bigger slice of a bigger pie to divide than when Pastrnak and Ehlers signed their deals despite outplaying Willie as his comparables. That is what his agent will argue anyways.

Goals certainly matter, there’s no argument against that but it also doesn’t make point totals irrelevant. Matthews beat Laine for the Calder but I suspect their eventual next contracts won’t be considerably further apart in overall dollars (though that may also dependon their scoring paces this s as on top).

Also worth nothing that Elhers and Pasta only had one season of putting up high numbers. Nylander looks to be on pace for two high scoring seasons under his belt, especially if he follows last seasons trend where he put up a lot of points during the second half of the season (was near PPG post Allstar break for example).

Then you have the contract length variable - of the Leafs want to eat up 2 of Nylander’s UFA years it will cost them.

 

[Barilko14]

The performance bonuses for 17/18 could be as much as $5.5M and $4.5M for 18/19, but that is for the present roster. Those numbers could go up if any of Rosen, Liljegren, Aaltonen or Johnsson are hitting bonuses in 17/18(not likely). But, in 18/19, I wouldn't be surprised if Lilj ($4ook) or Rosen ($850k) hit their bonus targets.
Horton is $5.3M

You've pretty much got it though.

Yeah, I was just using approx. numbers. Upwards of 15m+ (including Kessel) of dead space presents a bit of an obstacle.

It will be interesting to see Pridham operate this summer, imo 18/19 will be more of a challenge for him, then 19/20.

 

[Faltorvo]

Agreed.

Both Pastrnak and Ehlers resigned their new deals on an upwards projector statistically and were both better goals and points than Willie last summer.

They're better than Nylander this year statistically.

2017-18
Pastrnak ... 26 games 14-11-25 points [= 82 games 44 goals 35 assists 79 points] @ $6.67 mil AAV.
Ehlers ....... 29 games 12-10-22 points [=82 games 34 goals 28 assists 62 points] @ $6.0 mil AAV.
vs
Nylander ...29 games 5-15-20 points [= 82 games 14 goals 42 assists 57 points] = ?? AAV

Nylander at his current pace is declining from 61 points to 57 point pace (declining as opposed increasing) and at present his comparables Pastrnak +30 more goals and Ehlers +20 more goals than Nylander based on current pace.

Willi will be lucky to even get 6m per.