Recalled/Assigned: Canucks recall D Jack Rathbone (Apr 16)

[mdobbs]

Myers has had a good season. Have not checked recently but he was leading the d in 5 on 5 scoring, he is team's most physical dman and he is not a pylon. He loses the puck in his feet and does some turnovers but he has not been an issue this year.

Myers is the classic case of someone that looks good on initial glance and has some nice tools, but when you delve into the more advanced stats, you realize that the negatives significantly outweigh any positives.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Myers is the classic case of someone that looks good on initial glance and has some nice tools, but when you delve into the more advanced stats, you realize that the negatives significantly outweigh any positives.

if true, that is a good example of where stats are misleading.

myers has been one of if not our best dman this season. the defence overall has sucked, so his stats may still be unflattering, but the fact is the guy has stepped up all season and in some games has been the only dman above water.

 

[timw33]

Tyler Myers is in elite company in terms of being legitimately among the very worst NHL defenders in the entire league.

And he's even worse this year than the past two seasons.

 

[MS]

Tyler Myers is in elite company in terms of being legitimately among the very worst NHL defenders in the entire league.

And he's even worse this year than the past two seasons.

Tyler Myers hasn't been terribly good this year but those graphs are awful and also tell you that Dmitri Kulikov is one of the best defenders in the NHL this year.

 

[Tim Calhoun]

Yeah for starters those metrics don't take height into account, which makes Myers look worse.

 

[M2Beezy]

I think Myers would be so much better if he was played like what he is: a #5 who can fill in as a #4. Instead he is overplayed and makes so many mistakes as he is setup for failure. When played less minutes he can be effective but with how poorly our d is constructed he is DESTINED to fail

 

[timw33]

Tyler Myers hasn't been terribly good this year but those graphs are awful and also tell you that Dmitri Kulikov is one of the best defenders in the NHL this year.

I totally get that but the 3 year weighting is helpful at getting an idea of the trendline, where Myers had been hovering around that 25th percentile in WAR, which simply isn't good enough for a D-man paid in the 85th+ percentile

 

[bossram]

if true, that is a good example of where stats are misleading.

myers has been one of if not our best dman this season. the defence overall has sucked, so his stats may still be unflattering, but the fact is the guy has stepped up all season and in some games has been the only dman above water.

The stats aren't misleading. They are what they are. You interpret them what you will.

The facts are, that with Myers on the ice, the Canucks have been drastically outscored, out-chanced, and out-shot. This is wholly in line with his recent career trajectory. How is a guy that bleeds in the shot, chance, and goal differentials "above water"?

He may "look" good to you, but if the team is constantly getting beat down with Myers on the ice, that's simply not a good result. You're also probably not "looking" for the right things.

 

[Josepho]

I think Myers would be so much better if he was played like what he is: a #5 who can fill in as a #4. Instead he is overplayed and makes so many mistakes as he is setup for failure. When played less minutes he can be effective but with how poorly our d is constructed he is DESTINED to fail

I think the bigger problem is that he's a terrible fit for this team.

I can definitely see a situation where he has some utility on a team's 3rd pairing and PP unit -- he's always been a decent offensive player. But Benning probably thinks that a player being big means they're automatically good defensively, and he's then thrown out as an all-situations guy, a role he just isn't capable of playing. And we obviously have Hughes to throw in offensive situations.

He's being extremely overwhelmed given his deployment, but I don't think he's really even close to the bottom tier of defencemen that Benning has brought in.

 

[MS]

I totally get that but the 3 year weighting is helpful at getting an idea of the trendline, where Myers had been hovering around that 25th percentile in WAR, which simply isn't good enough for a D-man paid in the 85th+ percentile

As soon as I see WAR in an NHL context, I completely disregard the stat. I haven't seen a model that comes even close to telling an accurate story.

Again, these exact same graphs tell you that Dmitri Kulikov is one of the best defenders in the NHL this year.

The stats aren't misleading. They are what they are. You interpret them what you will.

The facts are, that with Myers on the ice, the Canucks have been drastically outscored, out-chanced, and out-shot. This is wholly in line with his recent career trajectory. How is a guy that bleeds in the shot, chance, and goal differentials "above water"?

He may "look" good to you, but if the team is constantly getting beat down with Myers on the ice, that's simply not a good result. You're also probably not "looking" for the right things.

What is the context in which the stats were generated?

Myers is playing tough minutes for a terrible team, often with a rookie partner, often with terrible defensive forwards in front of him.

I don't think he's been terrific but these stats are absolutely awful when they're used in a vacuum to determine whether a player is good or bad.

People were trying to tell me last summer that Bo Horvat was a sub-replacement level player because these stats were telling them Horvat had a negative WAR ... on the back of his exceptionally unlucky 95 PDO which the model didn't take into account.

 

[geebster]

How are there 2 pages of Myers conversation in a Rathbone thread. Been a while since Jack was even mentioned in passing. I'm not picking a side on the Myers thing but maybe make a thread or post in the Myers thread?

As for Jack I really hope he becomes a regular next year, or at least is the 7th guy/first call up when everyone else is healthy. I trust this kid more than I expected I would.

 

[nowhereman]

Tyler Myers is in elite company in terms of being legitimately among the very worst NHL defenders in the entire league.

And he's even worse this year than the past two seasons.

He is not one of the worst defenseman in the NHL, though, and you can tell that just by watching him. He's a #4/5 defenseman who has been asked to play well above his class and is getting caved in, as a result. If the team's defense wasn't such a tire fire, he'd likely look a lot better (or not as awful, depending on how you look at it).

 

[MS]

He is not one of the worst defenseman in the NHL, though, and you can tell that just by watching him. He's a #4/5 defenseman who has been asked to play well above his class and is getting caved in, as a result. If the team's defense wasn't such a tire fire, he'd likely look a lot better (or not as awful, depending on how you look at it).

Exactly.

Is Tyler Myers' contract awful? Yes.
Are the last couple years of it going to be terrible for us? Yes.

But he's a competent enough #4-5 defender who is being played above his station on a terrible defensive team and getting wrecked as a result. It happens.

Taking bad statistics out of context and using them to wrongly declare that Myers is one of the worst defenders in the NHL is just as bad as Jim Benning deciding that Myers is an awesome top-pairing defender because he's 6'8 and won a Calder Trophy and scored 35 points.

 

[krutovsdonut]

The stats aren't misleading. They are what they are. You interpret them what you will.

The facts are, that with Myers on the ice, the Canucks have been drastically outscored, out-chanced, and out-shot. This is wholly in line with his recent career trajectory. How is a guy that bleeds in the shot, chance, and goal differentials "above water"?

He may "look" good to you, but if the team is constantly getting beat down with Myers on the ice, that's simply not a good result. You're also probably not "looking" for the right things.

the stats as you are using them are misleading. they don't adjust for a whole host of considerations you could lump under the heading "team effect" and they also miss some metrics that apply to the role myers is playing.

myers is playing 22 hard minutes a night on a bad team, with a significant part of those minutes spent paired with rookies and a sophomore dman who is struggling defensively. he's also carrying the physical role in pairings where his partners other than edler (and benn early on) lack net presence.

if you can somehow adjust for that against some imaginary "average" deployment on an average team with average defensive partners you can now start to make some strong and meaningful comparisons about his play based puely on stats, although, even then, he would probably have a slightly different job on an average team.

for now, you cannot make that adjustment. your reliance on stats is either obviously wrong (you just slavishly parrot the stats and ignore the deficiencies in those stats) or else you rely on your own subjective "eye test" to subjectively adjust for team effect.

so it's eye test vs eye test. and i think you need glasses.

 

[bossram]

the stats as you are using them are misleading. they don't adjust for a whole host of considerations you could lump under the heading "team effect" and they also miss some metrics that apply to the role myers is playing.

myers is playing 22 hard minutes a night on a bad team, with a significant part of those minutes spent paired with rookies and a sophomore dman who is struggling defensively. he's also carrying the physical role in pairings where his partners other than edler (and benn early on) lack net presence.

if you can somehow adjust for that against some imaginary "average" deployment on an average team with average defensive partners you can now start to make some strong and meaningful comparisons about his play based puely on stats, although, even then, he would probably have a slightly different job on an average team.

for now, you cannot make that adjustment. your reliance on stats is either obviously wrong (you just slavishly parrot the stats and ignore the deficiencies in those stats) or else you rely on your own subjective "eye test" to subjectively adjust for team effect.

so it's eye test vs eye test. and i think you need glasses.

1. The bolded is exactly what you're doing. Except my eye test is supported by additional evidence. Myers has poor decision-making habits which lead to goals and chances against. This is what the stats depict as well.

2. We can control for a myriad of other factors, and have metrics for that. Evolving Hockey's RAPM metrics attempts to normalize Corsi and xG for quality of competition, teammates, zone starts, etc. By RAPM xG differential, Myers is 7th among Vancouver defensemen. By goal differential, he's 6th. Even given his usage, Myers has still performed badly.

If you want to keep saying things that are unsupported by the vast majority of evidence, then go ahead. But at some point, I think we have to conclude that the reason Myers has continually had poor on-ice outputs over the course of his career is because of Myers.

 

[krutovsdonut]

1. The bolded is exactly what you're doing. Except my eye test is supported by additional evidence.

it's almost like it's eyetest vs eyetest.

 

[bossram]

Exactly.

Is Tyler Myers' contract awful? Yes.
Are the last couple years of it going to be terrible for us? Yes.

But he's a competent enough #4-5 defender who is being played above his station on a terrible defensive team and getting wrecked as a result. It happens.

Taking bad statistics out of context and using them to wrongly declare that Myers is one of the worst defenders in the NHL is just as bad as Jim Benning deciding that Myers is an awesome top-pairing defender because he's 6'8 and won a Calder Trophy and scored 35 points.

Why are the statistics bad or out of context? Seriously? Stats like RAPM or Isolated Impact do try to control for contextual variables, like competition, teammates, zone starts, coaching, etc.

Across his career, these statistics have painted Myers as a very poor defensive player - to such a degree that he's rated as a fringe NHL defenseman in recent seasons. Is this actually wrong? By RAPM xG differential, Myers has basically oscillated between neutral and very negative from his time in Buffalo to presently with the Canucks.

Watching him play, he has great physical tools, can put up points here and there, but has absolutely abysmal decision-making which frequently leads to a cascade of chances against. My own assessment is that he's really an NHL average bottom-pair defenseman who is being over-leveraged, but when the evidence is consistent and repeated, I think I have to consider that I may be wrong too.

 

[bossram]

it's almost like it's eyetest vs eyetest.

A natural response when I refuted every single one of your arguments.

It is not "eye test vs. eye test" when my eye test is supported by the vast majority of analytical evidence. Further, the metrics I've utilized control for the contextual factors you were complaining were unaccounted for.

Considering you weren't actually able to credibly argue any of my points and instead repeated something pointless, I'll gladly accept that you've conceded to my arguments.

You're welcome.

 

[krutovsdonut]

A natural response when I refuted every single one of your arguments.

It is not "eye test vs. eye test" when my eye test is supported by the vast majority of analytical evidence. Further, the metrics I've utilized control for the contextual factors you were complaining were unaccounted for.

bare assertions that your opinion is more objective than mine or that the stats support you after the appropriate subjective adjustments are made by you are not arguments. they're assertions and bare contradictions. all respect to john cleese, but an actual argument involves you backing up your assertions with actual analysis and evidence explaining and substantiating how you have adjusted your precious stats to take into account myers' situation this year. in that way your assertions not only rise to the level of "argument" but may in fact be demonstrably "more objective" than mine.

for now, i see a bad eye test hot take hiding behind bloviations about stats.

 

[VanJack]

Meantime, back to Rathbone who it looks like will be paired with Myers again tonight. The rookie will have to carry that pairing again. But the impressive thing is he's more than capable of doing it.

I'd love to see Rathbone replace Myers on the second unit pp....but that won't happen anytime soon.

 

[MS]

Why are the statistics bad or out of context? Seriously? Stats like RAPM or Isolated Impact do try to control for contextual variables, like competition, teammates, zone starts, coaching, etc.

Across his career, these statistics have painted Myers as a very poor defensive player - to such a degree that he's rated as a fringe NHL defenseman in recent seasons. Is this actually wrong?

Watching him play, he has great physical tools, can put up points here and there, but has absolutely abysmal decision-making which frequently leads to a cascade of chances against. My own assessment is that he's really an NHL average bottom-pair defenseman who is being over-leveraged, but when the evidence is consistent and repeated, I think I have to consider that I may be wrong too.

These models have never been able to filter out noise and allow for context.

Again, I had people telling me that Bo Horvat was sub-replacement level in 2019-20 based on WAR calculations. Two years ago, people were telling me that Chris Tanev was garbage based on this stuff.

I don't like Tyler Myers. His contract sucks. But I'm convinced he's a pretty average #4-5 defender. If something is spitting out that he's one of the worst defenders in the NHL, to me that statistic is a bad statistic. It *MAY* mean that his ability : usage ratio is amongst the poorest in the NHL, but again I'm not even convinced of that.

If you took a league average mid-pairing defender and put him on a bad team with a bad partner in tough minutes, these WAR metrics will tell you that that player is one of the worst players in the NHL. And when that's the case, the data is worthless.

I love statistics. I love WAR in baseball. But I also hate bad statistics, and think that people making bad judgements off bad statistics are every bit as bad as bad dinosaur GMs making bad decisions off bad data like boards go boom.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Meantime, back to Rathbone who it looks like will be paired with Myers again tonight. The rookie will have to carry that pairing again. But the impressive thing is he's more than capable of doing it.

I'd love to see Rathbone replace Myers on the second unit pp....but that won't happen anytime soon.

i am pleased he can get that kind of ice time.

 

[bossram]

bare assertions that your opinion is more objective than mine or that the stats support you after the appropriate subjective adjustments are made by you are not arguments. they're assertions and bare contradictions. all respect to john cleese, but an actual argument involves you backing up your assertions with actual analysis and evidence explaining and substantiating how you have adjusted your precious stats to take into account myers' situation this year. in that way your assertions not only rise to the level of "argument" but may in fact be demonstrably "more objective" than mine.

for now, i see a bad eye test hot take hiding behind bloviations about stats.

"I have argued nothing, there I will just say you've argued nothing, because I am wrong.".

Alright then, LOL. What "actual evidence and analysis" have you provided?

I mean, your rep around here is pretty hilarious, so I'm not gonna take you too seriously from here on out.

 

[bossram]

These models have never been able to filter out noise and allow for context.

Again, I had people telling me that Bo Horvat was sub-replacement level in 2019-20 based on WAR calculations. Two years ago, people were telling me that Chris Tanev was garbage based on this stuff.

I don't like Tyler Myers. His contract sucks. But I'm convinced he's a pretty average #4-5 defender. If something is spitting out that he's one of the worst defenders in the NHL, to me that statistic is a bad statistic. It *MAY* mean that his ability : usage ratio is amongst the poorest in the NHL, but again I'm not even convinced of that.

If you took a league average mid-pairing defender and put him on a bad team with a bad partner in tough minutes, these WAR metrics will tell you that that player is one of the worst players in the NHL. And when that's the case, the data is worthless.

I love statistics. I love WAR in baseball. But I also hate bad statistics, and think that people making bad judgements off bad statistics are every bit as bad as bad dinosaur GMs making bad decisions off bad data like boards go boom.

I'm not really looking at WAR/GAR. Those are goal-based metrics, and thus are really susceptible to swings in shooting/save percentage. For a descriptor over a large amount of time, I think it's okay, but I don't think it's the best metric either and I haven't referenced it here. I've referenced RAPM, which I think is a lot more useful.

I'm mean, before Myers was signed, I also thought he was # a 4/5, despite what the numbers said. Then watching him, I've adjusted my opinion downward more in line with some of the numbers. We could be wrong, is what I'm saying. I disagree with the view that "oh, this model very clearly contradicts me so it must be wrong". We could be wrong.

Your example of a "putting a mid-pairing defender and putting him on a bad team in tough minutes" will mean he's automatically the worst player is not true. Someone like Jake McCabe from Buffalo is something of an analytical darling, based on his defensive results. Guys in tough situations can have good results. So perhaps there is something else about Myers we're not getting at.

Of course, you can easily find examples of the models "missing" on players. Just like you'll find innumerable examples of our eye tests missing. That doesn't mean "throw out the models". I mean, by shot metric models, Tanev used to be one of the elite defensive defensemen in the league. Honestly, I'd trust a flawed but systematic and consistent model of player evaluation far more than my own eyes at real-time.

In sum, please don't let Rathbone be attached to this guy for the next 3 years.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Meantime, back to Rathbone who it looks like will be paired with Myers again tonight. The rookie will have to carry that pairing again. But the impressive thing is he's more than capable of doing it.

I'd love to see Rathbone replace Myers on the second unit pp....but that won't happen anytime soon.

Actually looks like Rathbone is playing with Hamonic in an effort to have him play some more/tougher minutes. And he's on the PP.

Even Green knows Myers is trash defensively.