Post-Game Talk: Canucks def. Leafs - 6-4 (Miller, Brock Boeser, Hamonic, Pearson, Chiasson, Motte)

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The management team has been telling us that changes are coming. You are going to be seriously disappointed if you think they will not trade guys away at TDL. The goal is not to make the playoffs, the goal is to build a good team.

If they are close to playoff spot, methinks your the one who's going to be disappointed at the TDL...Having said that, the goal is indeed to build a good team, but the main transactions will be postponed until the off season...

 

[Cogburn]

Problem with buyout is that you still need to replace the player with another one. So your true savings is actually not that much unless you replace all of them with min pay guys. Sure we can replace Poolman with a min wage dude but that just adds up to a little bit less than what we pay Poolman now. Ditto with Dickinson. Hamonic we might as well live with him next season if we can’t get rid of him.
Your true savings from buyout will not even cover Halak and Holtby’s cap hit.

Those three would be replaced by minimum earners, or just not replaced, as Hamonic is the only one presently on the roster and Burroughs is out with injury.

Both of those cap hits are going to happen any way as well though, they aren't pending buyouts of other players. I did include them in my estimate of just under 20 million in cap space however.

 

[1440]

As great as it would be to make the playoffs, once in, chances of winning a cup are still only going to be ~5%.

The correct approach to be methodical and always rebuilding until you have a top 5ish roster, then to go all in for the cup run. Just have an internal valuation (that shifts according to the market) for all your assets and make a trade if you feel that you have been given an offer that surpasses that valuation. If you are going to be a fringe playoff team that year, great, still trade them since your players will likely have inflated values because they have performed well during the season. Moreover, immediately trade your good, aging players after any sort of successful playoff run since their values will be inflated.

JT Miller is in his prime, having a great year and is the type of guy that will win games in the playoffs. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Demko is young, improving and already one of the best goalies in the league. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Hughes is a young elite number 1 defenseman of the type that you can almost never acquire by trade. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.

Yes optics are a factor here, and it is also correct to "say" that certain players on your team are off the table since that helps underscore your position on a bargaining table, but in reality no one for any team should be immune to being traded if the offer is right. The fanbase has an emotional attachment to Hughes, Pettersson and Demko and that sells tickets, but they would just as soon pay to watch 10 first round picks or whatever the crazy return would be for those guys.

Look at European soccer: Phillipe Coutinho was the best player on a team in title contention, beloved by fans and likely the best player in the EPL, but when Barcelona came along with an insane 146M pound offer for him, they just basically said: ok cool, I am going to bet on my scouting department finding 3 guys that will be just as good as him in the future with that money. Now, just 4 years later they are both a top 3 team in Europe and one of the most profitable in the transfer market.

You have to always want to improve and that will mean making tough decisions and ultimately trading some good players away.

 

[RussianRacket]

Demko is young, improving and already one of the best goalies in the league. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Hughes is a young elite number 1 defenseman of the type that you can almost never acquire by trade. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.

What on earth is this nonsense???

Yeah let's trade two of our best players who will also play for at least another 10 years at a high level.

 

[VanJack]

Watching that video from the dressing-room, and how fired-up the Canucks were about going into TO and getting the win, you have to ask yourself. How can management give up on this team right now by dealing some of its best players?

On the basis of the last two games alone--third period, comeback wins against the Isles and Leafs on the road--you have to give this group a shot to see where they can take it, don't you?

I know it's almost never mentioned. But if the Canucks keep winning, could they possible 'add' at the deadline, instead of a subtracting?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

As great as it would be to make the playoffs, once in, chances of winning a cup are still only going to be ~5%.

The correct approach to be methodical and always rebuilding until you have a top 5ish roster, then to go all in for the cup run. Just have an internal valuation (that shifts according to the market) for all your assets and make a trade if you feel that you have been given an offer that surpasses that valuation. If you are going to be a fringe playoff team that year, great, still trade them since your players will likely have inflated values because they have performed well during the season. Moreover, immediately trade your good, aging players after any sort of successful playoff run since their values will be inflated.

JT Miller is in his prime, having a great year and is the type of guy that will win games in the playoffs. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Demko is young, improving and already one of the best goalies in the league. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Hughes is a young elite number 1 defenseman of the type that you can almost never acquire by trade. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.

Yes optics are a factor here, and it is also correct to "say" that certain players on your team are off the table since that helps underscore your position on a bargaining table, but in reality no one for any team should be immune to being traded if the offer is right. The fanbase has an emotional attachment to Hughes, Pettersson and Demko and that sells tickets, but they would just as soon pay to watch 10 first round picks or whatever the crazy return would be for those guys.

Look at European soccer: Phillipe Coutinho was the best player on a team in title contention, beloved by fans and likely the best player in the EPL, but when Barcelona came along with an insane 146M pound offer for him, they just basically said: ok cool, I am going to bet on my scouting department finding 3 guys that will be just as good as him in the future with that money. Now, just 4 years later they are both a top 3 team in Europe and one of the most profitable in the transfer market.

You have to always want to improve and that will mean making tough decisions and ultimately trading some good players away.

So you want to pull an Arizona..?..May as well fire the coach first.

 

[Chairman Maouth]

 

[ziploc]

As long as we don't refer to it as the "LTIR farm upstate somewhere".

The farm is in Arizona.

 

[1440]

What on earth is this nonsense???

Yeah let's trade two of our best players who will also play for at least another 10 years at a high level.

So you want to pull an Arizona..?..May as well fire the coach first.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. I am advocating a general strategy wherein every player has a price, not saying the Canucks should burn it all down and rebuild.

Think of it this way: If McDavid or Matthews were offered for Hughes, would you do it? No team wants to trade away a Hughes, but there are still offers that would force your hand.

When you apply that to the Canucks, this whole don't trade Miller talk seems ridiculous. Trade him if you get a good offer, don't if you don't. Do the same for every player.

 

[arttk]

If they are close to playoff spot, methinks your the one who's going to be disappointed at the TDL...Having said that, the goal is indeed to build a good team, but the main transactions will be postponed until the off season...

Why would I be disappointed? I want us to get a haul for some players to help us retool asap. If they the package is not there at the TDL for some guys then i agree we should wait till the off season.
The only players we really need to trade away is Motte because it looks like we have zero intention to retain him. Halak with his recent crap ass performance is going to make it harder to trade him away.

 

[ziploc]

Why would I be disappointed? I want us to get a haul for some players to help us retool asap. If they the package is not there at the TDL for some guys then i agree we should wait till the off season.
The only players we really need to trade away is Motte because it looks like we have zero intention to retain him. Halak with his recent crap ass performance is going to make it harder to trade him away.

I’d trade Halak for a bucket of shrimp right now. And not that big a bucket either.

 

[M2Beezy]

Man I love beating the Leafs

 

[arttk]

Those three would be replaced by minimum earners, or just not replaced, as Hamonic is the only one presently on the roster and Burroughs is out with injury.

Both of those cap hits are going to happen any way as well though, they aren't pending buyouts of other players. I did include them in my estimate of just under 20 million in cap space however.

Not sure about that.
Hughes - Schenn
OEL - Myers
Ratbone - Burroughs
????
Thats like a trash ass d group. I am guessing Allvin wants to do a Zito and give a bunch of guys at reasonable cap hit a chance and see who hits and that will cost us more than league min.

Let’s say we roll with that, what do we do with Boeser? His QO is at 7.5 and if he takes that and goes to UFA after, he can expect like a 5x6M contract, so that’s a 37.5M over 6 seasons. There is no incentive really for him to take less than that unless we offer like 7x6M. So let’s say he does that, how much money do we have left to improve the roster? Like 6M? We can’t spend all of that as well because Miller and Horvat needs a new deal the year after and we have like nobody coming off the books. So we need to deal away somebody that has actual value at some point anyways.

 

[arttk]

I’d trade Halak for a bucket of shrimp right now. And not that big a bucket either.

Problem is does anyone want to give us a bucket for him.

 

[M2Beezy]

Man I love eating shrimp

 

[alternate]

I'd be fine with the leftover bucket of tails tbh.

 

[ziploc]

Not sure about that.
Hughes - Schenn
OEL - Myers
Ratbone - Burroughs
????
Thats like a trash ass d group. I am guessing Allvin wants to do a Zito and give a bunch of guys at reasonable cap hit a chance and see who hits and that will cost us more than league min.

Let’s say we roll with that, what do we do with Boeser? His QO is at 7.5 and if he takes that and goes to UFA after, he can expect like a 5x6M contract, so that’s a 37.5M over 6 seasons. There is no incentive really for him to take less than that unless we offer like 7x6M. So let’s say he does that, how much money do we have left to improve the roster? Like 6M? We can’t spend all of that as well because Miller and Horvat needs a new deal the year after and we have like nobody coming off the books. So we need to deal away somebody that has actual value at some point anyways.

This is why moving Myers is so essential, imo

 

[Bubbles]

As great as it would be to make the playoffs, once in, chances of winning a cup are still only going to be ~5%.

The correct approach to be methodical and always rebuilding until you have a top 5ish roster, then to go all in for the cup run. Just have an internal valuation (that shifts according to the market) for all your assets and make a trade if you feel that you have been given an offer that surpasses that valuation. If you are going to be a fringe playoff team that year, great, still trade them since your players will likely have inflated values because they have performed well during the season. Moreover, immediately trade your good, aging players after any sort of successful playoff run since their values will be inflated.

JT Miller is in his prime, having a great year and is the type of guy that will win games in the playoffs. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Demko is young, improving and already one of the best goalies in the league. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.
Hughes is a young elite number 1 defenseman of the type that you can almost never acquire by trade. Cool, but trade him if a team exceeds your valuation for an offer.

Yes optics are a factor here, and it is also correct to "say" that certain players on your team are off the table since that helps underscore your position on a bargaining table, but in reality no one for any team should be immune to being traded if the offer is right. The fanbase has an emotional attachment to Hughes, Pettersson and Demko and that sells tickets, but they would just as soon pay to watch 10 first round picks or whatever the crazy return would be for those guys.

Look at European soccer: Phillipe Coutinho was the best player on a team in title contention, beloved by fans and likely the best player in the EPL, but when Barcelona came along with an insane 146M pound offer for him, they just basically said: ok cool, I am going to bet on my scouting department finding 3 guys that will be just as good as him in the future with that money. Now, just 4 years later they are both a top 3 team in Europe and one of the most profitable in the transfer market.

You have to always want to improve and that will mean making tough decisions and ultimately trading some good players away.

Excellent post. Have you read Soccernomics? The ideas here are very much like in the book, which I agree with.

 

[logan5]

I’d trade Halak for a bucket of shrimp right now. And not that big a bucket either.

I'd rather get some pepperoni sticks. They keep much better. Shrimp is one of the leading causes of food poisoning in Canada.

 

[Cogburn]

Not sure about that.
Hughes - Schenn
OEL - Myers
Ratbone - Burroughs
????
Thats like a trash ass d group. I am guessing Allvin wants to do a Zito and give a bunch of guys at reasonable cap hit a chance and see who hits and that will cost us more than league min.

Let’s say we roll with that, what do we do with Boeser? His QO is at 7.5 and if he takes that and goes to UFA after, he can expect like a 5x6M contract, so that’s a 37.5M over 6 seasons. There is no incentive really for him to take less than that unless we offer like 7x6M. So let’s say he does that, how much money do we have left to improve the roster? Like 6M? We can’t spend all of that as well because Miller and Horvat needs a new deal the year after and we have like nobody coming off the books. So we need to deal away somebody that has actual value at some point anyways.

Assuming the buyout route, we have 20 million after all the buyouts, including Holtby and Virtanen, and likely bonuses. You're not wrong that the proposed D group isn't good, bit the idea is after Motte and Boeser are signed, we see the rest to repair the D corps.

 

[arttk]

Assuming the buyout route, we have 20 million after all the buyouts, including Holtby and Virtanen, and likely bonuses. You're not wrong that the proposed D group isn't good, bit the idea is after Motte and Boeser are signed, we see the rest to repair the D corps.

Ok the math does not check out at all. We have 10M in cap next season. If we get rid of Poolman, Hamonic, Dickinson without taking on any cap, that would only get us from 10M to 18M. Not sure how you are getting 20M of cap AFTER buyouts.

 

[1440]

Excellent post. Have you read Soccernomics? The ideas here are very much like in the book, which I agree with.

I have not. I will have to check it out!

 

[Cogburn]

Ok the math does not check out at all. We have 10M in cap next season. If we get rid of Poolman, Hamonic, Dickinson without taking on any cap, that would only get us from 10M to 18M. Not sure how you are getting 20M of cap AFTER buyouts.

I've been using the cap friendly armchair GM, so it could be that that system is flawed. I had it at 19+ million and rounded up.

 

[arttk]

I've been using the cap friendly armchair GM, so it could be that that system is flawed. I had it at 19+ million and rounded up.

Math seems way off, did you buyout more people on the tool?
Oh I see it, you need to move everyone off LTIR to have a more accurate pic of what the cap is. Ferland’s LTIR only applies when season start and only applies to covering the cap of the player that replaces him.

 

[HeLord]

Wait, people are seriously suggesting we buyout players? What a dumb take. Dickenson and Hamonic don't even need to be bought out. In the offseason, neither will have any trade protection. We can easily trade them to a team like Arizona who need players. Or, we can keep them. Buying them it is so f**king stupid. Give your heads a shake.