Speculation: Canes roster building thread 2016/17

[the halleJOKEL]

So, they need to be physical, keep the crease clear, and react in kind when the opposition takes liberties with our players.

Got it.

no, they need to commit murder in cold blood on the ice multiple times per game while making beautiful saucey stretch passes and smile the whole time they do it

 

[raynman]

A team that leads the league in smiles per game is a team I can get behind.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

If we wanted smiles, Char would have been resigned to an 8 year $32 million contract already.

 

[NotOpie]

If we wanted smiles, Char would have been resigned to an 8 year $32 million contract already.

There's still time....

 

[Unsustainable]

So BBA, how about in the OP you go ahead and list who we have under contract and whose a UFA / RFA from the team and the cap hits?

Then we can look from there to see what we can afford.

 

[DaveG]

I'll get a capology 2017 started today.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'll get a capology 2017 started today.

Thanks Dave.

Did you see the big news? WVU vs Tennessee at BOA in Charlotte in 2018.

 

[Stickpucker]

Murphy.

I've heard him referred to as the blood god in certain circles. *chills*

 

[DaveG]

Thanks Dave.

Did you see the big news? WVU vs Tennessee at BOA in Charlotte in 2018.

Yep, had heard about it for a while but glad it's now 100% confirmed. Wonder if Holgy is still going to be behind the bench for that one, doesn't seem like he gets on with Lyons like he did with Luck.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Great, another excuse for a visit from the ILs...

 

[DaveG]

so based on the info I posted in the Capology thread here's how I'm looking at it right now:

24 million to spend on basically 8 roster spots. Re-signing Rask I'd go for about a 4 mil per long-term deal if possible. On the flip side Aho is going to be cheap and I assume we'll fill from within for another spot (Woods, Brown, McGinn) so we're at 19.5 to spend on 5 to be 10 mil under the cap.

Skinner - ??????? - ???????
Nestrasil - J Staal - Lindholm
Aho - Rask - PDG
McGinn - McClement - Nordstrom
???????

Slavin - Faulk
Hainsey - Pesce
Hanifin - Wiz
???????

???????
Lack

13th forward and 7th D should be cheapish to fill. Could probably get both of those for about 3 million between the 2 just bringing back Nash and Liles. Less if we hang on to Murphy but I think he's used as a trade chip.

So basically, who's out there that we can fill those 3 holes with for 16.5? Would going after Brassard from the Rangers (if we're not going to get a Kreider) be at all an appealing option? He's 28, has 3 years left on a 5m per deal. I know Nash has been talked about as well but that one to me depends on the cost and what Nash we're getting. If we're getting the Nash from 12-13 and 14-15 that solves a LOT of our problems. If we're getting the Nash from 13-14 and 15-16 we're getting Eric Staal level frustration for about the same pay without the ability to play Center.

Goalie... I think we'd be smart to actually try to make a big splash here, and there's nothing on the UFA front worth doing that on (Ward and Reimer... that's seriously it). Bishop and Varlamov are the two names I'd want us to target. If those two would be too much... and really I detest the guy and especially his agent for what they did to us but Andersen's a possibility... but only one worth exploring if we are able to work out a long-term extension before hand without paying out the ass for him. He's arbitration eligible and I have no doubt they would willingly **** us over on that just to walk the next season as a UFA.

 

[GoldiFox]

All-in approach:

#13 + Fleury for Derek Stepan
#21 + small add for Varlamov
Sign Okposo to whatever he wants.

Skinner - Stepan - Okposo
Nestrasil - J Staal - Lindholm
Aho - Rask - PDG
McGinn - McClement - Nordstrom
???????

Slavin - Faulk
Hainsey - Pesce
Hanifin - Wiz
???????

Varlamov
Lack

That team makes the Playoffs next year unless the D completely crumbles.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Honestly, I don't see RF getting a 1C this year that knocks Rask down to the 3C spot, even if that would be ideal. To start the season, I think we'll be looking more at:

Skinner-Rask-????
Nordstrom-Staal-Nestrasil (if healthy)
????? - Lindholm - Aho
Checkers guy - McClement-PDG

 

[NotOpie]

so based on the info I posted in the Capology thread here's how I'm looking at it right now:

24 million to spend on basically 8 roster spots. Re-signing Rask I'd go for about a 4 mil per long-term deal if possible. On the flip side Aho is going to be cheap and I assume we'll fill from within for another spot (Woods, Brown, McGinn) so we're at 19.5 to spend on 5 to be 10 mil under the cap.

Skinner - ??????? - ???????
Nestrasil - J Staal - Lindholm
Aho - Rask - PDG
McGinn - McClement - Nordstrom
???????

Slavin - Faulk
Hainsey - Pesce
Hanifin - Wiz
???????

???????
Lack

13th forward and 7th D should be cheapish to fill. Could probably get both of those for about 3 million between the 2 just bringing back Nash and Liles. Less if we hang on to Murphy but I think he's used as a trade chip.

So basically, who's out there that we can fill those 3 holes with for 16.5? Would going after Brassard from the Rangers (if we're not going to get a Kreider) be at all an appealing option? He's 28, has 3 years left on a 5m per deal. I know Nash has been talked about as well but that one to me depends on the cost and what Nash we're getting. If we're getting the Nash from 12-13 and 14-15 that solves a LOT of our problems. If we're getting the Nash from 13-14 and 15-16 we're getting Eric Staal level frustration for about the same pay without the ability to play Center.

Goalie... I think we'd be smart to actually try to make a big splash here, and there's nothing on the UFA front worth doing that on (Ward and Reimer... that's seriously it). Bishop and Varlamov are the two names I'd want us to target. If those two would be too much... and really I detest the guy and especially his agent for what they did to us but Andersen's a possibility... but only one worth exploring if we are able to work out a long-term extension before hand without paying out the ass for him. He's arbitration eligible and I have no doubt they would willingly **** us over on that just to walk the next season as a UFA.

Dave, nice approach and some good ideas too. A couple of observations, then my take.

First I think the Canes will play to a budget of about $67 million at the high end and likely will spend closer to $62 or $63 million.....and I'm not even sure they will get there.

Secondly, if my calculations are correct, a $74 million salary cap yields a salary floor of about $54.7 million. Right now we're at something like $39.6 and that includes Semin's buyout. So we've got to spend a bit over $15 million to get to the floor and about $23 million to get to my imaginary budget of $62/$63 million.

I totally agree on signing Rask to a longer term deal but I'd try to buy that 1st UFA year out and maybe pay a little more for it. So something like 5 years at $21 million where he gets $4 MM a year for the 1st 4 years and $5 MM the last year. As far as the 7th defenseman and the 13th forward I factor in less money than you, looking at something like $1.5 million for the both of them (I'd be okay with resigning Jordan for that role again, for example). That leaves 5 roster spots, 4 forwards and a goalie.

On the goalie front I'd go after Reimer and sign him for somewhere between $4 to $5 million for 4 years. I don't trust Varly and I think Bishop's services are going to be in high demand, so I'm not sure what it would take to get him and if we'd be willing to pay it. Chad Johnson is also coming of a nice season and he could be an option. I just don't know how I feel about Andersen, except I don't trust him.

We all should be prepared for one Sebastian Aho getting plugged into the line up. Personally I think he'll be fine and if he puts up anything close to 35-45 points I'd be ecstatic. My big difference is I shuffle a couple of your lines. Mine look like this:

Nestrasil/Staal/?????
Skinner/Rask/PDG
Aho/Lindholm/?????
Nordstrom/McClement/?????

Hainsey/Faulk
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Wisniewski

I wouldn't be surprised to see Riley Nash signed for that "jack of all trades"/4th line spot and Nordstrom may very well stay on the Nesty/Jordy/Nordy line, but I don't think so. I think you add a true scorer to that line that we hope puts up 50 points or more. I think we add some size and scoring to the Aho/Lindholm line and that makes it a very hard match up. With Aho getting about $950,000, Nash getting what I'd project to be $1.3 million, and Reimer getting $4.5 MM, we now have spent something like $12.5 million. So $2.5 million from the floor and $10.5 million from my projected budget....and really needing just two forwards.

This is why I actually believe we can be a player with one of the "bigger" names in free agency but we don't have to be. We could sign (or acquire via trade) a $6 million guy and a $4.5 million guy. That brings us the extra scoring we need, adds a more reliable goaltender, and keeps the budget low enough so that worries about the expansion draft and the 25% of salary rule will be minimized.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Nestrasil/Staal/?????
Skinner/Rask/PDG
Aho/Lindholm/?????
Nestrasil/McClement/?????

Hainsey/Faulk
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Wisniewski

I'm fairly confident that Francis will at least sign enough forwards so that they don't need to double shift Nestrasil.

 

[Roboturner913]

If we can pencil Aho into the lineup that solves a major problem. Make an RFA trade for Andrew Shaw (or somebody of similar overall talent) and throw some pretty serious cash/trade resources at the one remaining hole at forward. (I really liked the Brassard idea). If you get a center, Lindholm can continue playing wing. If you can only get a winger, move Lindholm into center and give him some good wing support finally.

scenario A
Skinner-Brassard-Lindholm
Aho-Rask-Shaw
PDG-Staal-Nestrasil
Nordstrom-McClement-rookie

scenario B
Ladd-Rask-Aho
Skinner-Lindholm-Shaw
PDG-Staal-Nestrasil
Nordstrom-McClement-rookei

 

[NotOpie]

I'm fairly confident that Francis will at least sign enough forwards so that they don't need to double shift Nestrasil.

Nice catch; fixed now.

If we can pencil Aho into the lineup that solves a major problem. Make an RFA trade for Andrew Shaw (or somebody of similar overall talent) and throw some pretty serious cash/trade resources at the one remaining hole at forward. (I really liked the Brassard idea). If you get a center, Lindholm can continue playing wing. If you can only get a winger, move Lindholm into center and give him some good wing support finally.

scenario A
Skinner-Brassard-Lindholm
Aho-Rask-Shaw
PDG-Staal-Nestrasil
Nordstrom-McClement-rookie

scenario B
Ladd-Rask-Aho
Skinner-Lindholm-Shaw
PDG-Staal-Nestrasil
Nordstrom-McClement-rookei

Andrew Shaw? Why not Chad LaRose?

I mean, I'm sorry but Andrew Shaw isn't near what we need. We need somebody who can score ....and Shaw on a 2nd line is really as egregious as LaRose on the top 2 lines. He doesn't have the talent. He's really an okay 3rd liner but one who actually does nothing special. He's a sub .50 PPG player who maybe has averaged 35 points a year. Plus if you're going to move PDG off of that line, you need somebody who makes space and despite Shaw's scrappiness, he doesn't do that either. Add to the fact that we'd have to give up an asset to get him. Granted this is just my opinion, but I think there are many other alternatives, ones where we'd have to either give up less for more or just have to pay a paycheck.

 

[raynman]

All the cap space and assets makes me pretty optimistic that Francis can accomplish something decent this offseason.

 

[Unsustainable]

What if we used Nedaspellacheck + NYR 2nd to grab Murray from Pitt. Since they will have to protect Fluery, we can get a goalie now type deal, and the JR can spend a little on Wardo. Ned won't have to be protected in the expansion draft, so win win deal.

 

[Roboturner913]

Andrew Shaw? Why not Chad LaRose?

I mean, I'm sorry but Andrew Shaw isn't near what we need. We need somebody who can score ....and Shaw on a 2nd line is really as egregious as LaRose on the top 2 lines. He doesn't have the talent. He's really an okay 3rd liner but one who actually does nothing special. He's a sub .50 PPG player who maybe has averaged 35 points a year. Plus if you're going to move PDG off of that line, you need somebody who makes space and despite Shaw's scrappiness, he doesn't do that either. Add to the fact that we'd have to give up an asset to get him. Granted this is just my opinion, but I think there are many other alternatives, ones where we'd have to either give up less for more or just have to pay a paycheck.

A. Chad LaRose was a fine player in his day, I don't understand 1/10th of the hate he gets. I'll take a guy who can score 15-20 goals and provide that kind of energy every day of the week. Having said that, Shaw is obviously a much better player than LaRose ever was, in all facets of the game. Honestly, if the only analogy you can come up with is Chad LaRose for him then I doubt you've seen him play very much.

B. They can't all be superstars, or even regular old garden variety stars. And perhaps you didn't notice, but it's not like I touted him as the sole acquisition or the savior of this team. In scenario A we trade for Brassard, in scenario B we sign Ladd, and in both scenarios we are (presumably) counting on Aho to put up 20-20-40 type numbers on a second line at least. Believe me, I'd love to do the modern day equivalent of signing Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman and Matt Cullen all in one offseason. But that ain't gonna happen.

C. You're going back to the conventional definitions of second line, third line again. Teams all over the league - not just ours - have offense-by-committee approaches with players that "don't belong" on a certain line in order to spread their best players throughout the lineup. The Penguins are playing guys like Sheary and Rust on their "scoring lines" and Phil Kessel is on their "third line." Backes has been maybe St. Louis's best player, he's on their third line; meanwhile Lehtera is playing as their 1C because he works well with Tarasenko. The conventional model of scoring line/two-way line/checking line is dying out. The salary cap and most coaches propensity to invest heavily in defense doesn't allow for it anymore.

 

[Brock Anton]

What if we used Nedaspellacheck + NYR 2nd to grab Murray from Pitt. Since they will have to protect Fluery, we can get a goalie now type deal, and the JR can spend a little on Wardo. Ned won't have to be protected in the expansion draft, so win win deal.

Murray isn't going anywhere. They'll find a way to move Fleury.

 

[Brock Anton]

A. Chad LaRose was a fine player in his day, I don't understand 1/10th of the hate he gets. I'll take a guy who can score 15-20 goals and provide that kind of energy every day of the week. Having said that, Shaw is obviously a much better player than LaRose ever was, in all facets of the game. Honestly, if the only analogy you can come up with is Chad LaRose for him then I doubt you've seen him play very much.

A good bit of the LaRose hate was because he playing on the 1st line with Staal more often than not. I think everyone realized that he was a decent two-way 3rd/4th line winger, it's just that he was egregiously overslotted.

 

[NotOpie]

A. Chad LaRose was a fine player in his day, I don't understand 1/10th of the hate he gets. I'll take a guy who can score 15-20 goals and provide that kind of energy every day of the week. Having said that, Shaw is obviously a much better player than LaRose ever was, in all facets of the game. Honestly, if the only analogy you can come up with is Chad LaRose for him then I doubt you've seen him play very much.

B. They can't all be superstars, or even regular old garden variety stars. And perhaps you didn't notice, but it's not like I touted him as the sole acquisition or the savior of this team. In scenario A we trade for Brassard, in scenario B we sign Ladd, and in both scenarios we are (presumably) counting on Aho to put up 20-20-40 type numbers on a second line at least. Believe me, I'd love to do the modern day equivalent of signing Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman and Matt Cullen all in one offseason. But that ain't gonna happen.

C. You're going back to the conventional definitions of second line, third line again. Teams all over the league - not just ours - have offense-by-committee approaches with players that "don't belong" on a certain line in order to spread their best players throughout the lineup. The Penguins are playing guys like Sheary and Rust on their "scoring lines" and Phil Kessel is on their "third line." Backes has been maybe St. Louis's best player, he's on their third line; meanwhile Lehtera is playing as their 1C because he works well with Tarasenko. The conventional model of scoring line/two-way line/checking line is dying out. The salary cap and most coaches propensity to invest heavily in defense doesn't allow for it anymore.

Robo, first of all I have to apologize for the tone of my reply; it was needlessly pissy and it manifested as unneeded snarkiness.

Okay, with that out of the way, here's my take on Andrew Shaw and the meat of what I said and meant.

A. Chad Larose was a fine player and I really, really liked what Chad LaRose brought. But Char was a 4th liner at best who could be an adequate 3rd liner in a pinch. He was constantly over-slotted in the top two lines because the team had no other alternatives. We needed his fiestiness and his grit, but there were many times when we needed skill and size much, much more. That's what I meant by the Shaw/LaRose comparison, it was in the context bringing in a 4th line guy (Shaw played much of the time on the Hawks 4th line with Kruger and Desjardins, even though he was slotted up and down the line up on occasion). For the record, I'm not sure that I agree that Shaw is a much better player than LaRose, especially in the role in which LaRose excelled and the one that Shaw is best suited.

Also, we are still going to struggle to have guys who put up 60-70 points. That's not how this team is likely to be constructed. If you go back to both of the most recent Hurricanes playoff teams, you'll note that they each had high end scorers (at least in that season). The Cup team had four 70 + point guys (noe being a 100 point scorer). The '08-'09 ECF team had two 70+ point guys. To me, this team is going to be made up of 2 or 3 50+ point guys and 4, 5, or 6 40 point guys. Now maybe I'm quibbling needlessly over 3 or 4 points, but I'd rather target a guy who has the combo of size, skill, and speed for that slot first.

B. You are absolutely right that all players aren't superstars and that garden-variety, lunch pail guys are needed as the workman-like glue that holds teams together. Currently on this team that's how I see guys like Nordstrom, McClement, Nash, and to lesser extents, PDG and Nestrasil. It is also how I see whomever they might add from the Checkers. I don't see Shaw as the right fit for the Canes even in that role for a couple of specific reasons. Ideally each line has some combination of guys who are snipers, distributors, and "space-makers" (at least 3 of the 4 lines). On any of the top 3 lines for the Canes, Shaw doesn't really serve any of these roles. He's a very hard-working guy who gets under the other team's skin and has a little finish. But he isn't particularly strong, not particularly fast, and not particularly skilled. Again, this is my view based on how I feel the team should be constructed, but I see one of our pick ups this season slotting in next to Lindholm and Aho and, in my mind, that guy needs to be a bigger, stronger guy. Shaw could work in that role, but he'd not be my first or even 2nd choice. I'd rather invest more assets in a higher caliber player. To me, somebody like Alex Killorn fits this role perfectly: bigger guy, decent speed, strong down low and on the puck, and plays with an edge.

C. I agree that this team will probably not have 3 top lines defined in the traditional way. I've argued for and see it panning out as the much discussed three 2nd lines and a 4th line. I see these lines being constructed similarly (as I said above) but have different strong suits. One line would still serve as our strongest shut down line while being solidly offensively capable, one line would still serve as our strongest offensive threat but not being a defensive liability, and one line would be a blend of the two whose greatest characteristic would be how difficult they were to match up against. However ice time would be much more evenly distributed and match ups would be fluid, but the key to success.

In the end we're going to have to "invest" to pull in at least two new guys, both of whom will need to be Top 9 contributors offensively. Even though the Hawks are likely going to be in a cash crunch, they're not likely to give Shaw a Versteeg-like treatment. He's going to cost more in assets. My point is that we could probably afford to spend a little more for a guy like Killorn using picks and prospects and then spend a little more in $$$ to get a UFA. In the end we get higher production players.

 

[Vagrant]

I wouldn't forget about Brock McGinn. His offense *really* started to turn on late in the year. Exponential improvement in his AHL game from season to season. I have historically liked him much better than PDG and think he has more upside. I think he makes the team next year in some capacity. Plus he has some of that crash and bang that we need in our forward ranks. Hopefully a year of strength training will allow that side to come out at the NHL level a bit more.

It's odd how little we've talked about him. I think he could have just as easily had a season like PDG if put in similar opportunities. He wasn't quite ready, but he's not far. Watching him last year to this year was like watching two different guys. I think his development is moving nicely, but he seems to be a forgotten man.

 

[Vagrant]

Additionally, don't forget about Anthony Camara. I think the Checkers liked what they saw with him. Similar to the Greg Nemisz situation, sans the unfortunate injury. Perfect style of player for the 4th line if he can put the work in.