Pre-Game Talk: Canes at Cats

[I am not exposed]

Campbell (when he wants) is a pretty good dman but we do a great disservice to him and the team playing him so many minutes and against the best lines of opposing teams. He would be much more effective playing lesser minutes and on a 2nd pairing and we would see a better faster Campbell in those shifts he gets. He looks run down out there with no creativity in his game any longer and its clear his offseason has started now and he has dialed it down a few notches.

Guds problem is games. He needs to play 300-400 games to get his play straight. Just like Jovo and Pronger and other guys who were tall, slow, came in the league 18-19, they struggled in the beginning. I would like to see him get way better with the skating but other than that he needs more games played to work out his problems that all can be corrected. He's a player that should have been in the minors smoothing himself out there but he was rushed so this is what you get. He's learning on the job against the best and its not going to be pretty sometimes.

Great post.

 

[FrolikFan67]

its funny because even though everyones getting worked up, we only lost 3-0 and thats with no luongo for 2 full periods. we also out shot them somehow. yea it was boring and they are indeed a mess, but honestly, what do you expect. we all know this is how its gonna go for the final 8 games. at least luongo is ok (hopefully).

 

[flapanthersfan]

Well there is really no chance for you to win that guarantee because like it or not Guds will be at least our #4 right away next year. Gilbert will struggle to find a team...again.

Oh and if you want to try and twist the logic then go for it.

if Gudbranson is our #4 next year, we won't make the playoffs, again.

Gilbert will find a team easily, and will get a multi-year deal. I'll make sure to remind you of this when he does.

 

[panthersfan94]

if Gudbranson is our #4 next year, we won't make the playoffs, again.

Gilbert will find a team easily, and will get a multi-year deal. I'll make sure to remind you of this when he does.

WHO in their right mind would give Gilbert, a 30+ year old defenseman, coming off sports hernia surgery a multi-year deal to play in their top 4? And if they would, why was he available to be signed on a try-out deal this year?

And, I don't see how if Gudbranson is our #4 next year that it is guaranteed that we won't make the playoffs. Have you ever heard of progression or do you think that this is Gudbranson's ceiling?

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

WHO in their right mind would give Gilbert, a 30+ year old defenseman, coming off sports hernia surgery a multi-year deal to play in their top 4? And if they would, why was he available to be signed on a try-out deal this year?

And, I don't see how if Gudbranson is our #4 next year that it is guaranteed that we won't make the playoffs. Have you ever heard of progression or do you think that this is Gudbranson's ceiling?

He got a PTO because his agent felt he was worth more, so he declined the offer the Wild gave him, holding out for a big contract. Turns out he wasn't worth as much as his agent thought. Same thing happened with Boyes, who rejected a 1 year deal with the Isles expecting a payday that never happened..

 

[flapanthersfan]

Answer me this, when he was wearing the cage, was he as physical as normal?


He made one bad pinch today, so his coverage, gap control, and positioning are "abysmal". He's a -1 today, so he's been fine aside from the goal. If he's the 2nd worst player on our team, then our team should play better with him out, no? Was our defense any better while he was hurt?

his bad pinch has nothing to do with his coverage, gap control or positioning. that's just a brainfart, which he also has plenty of.

statistic's prove nothing, but if you want to play that game, erik gudbranson had the worst +/- in nhl history during his first two seasons. thoughts?

the only stat that really tells you a defensman's true worth defensively is Corsi. the only d-men on this team with a positive corsi are, you guessed it, Brian Campbell, Tom Gilbert and Dmitry Kulikov.

Everyone else's is garbage.

Jovanovski's is laughably bad. (not surprising)

We have 3 legitimate NHL d-men right now. Campbell, Kulikov, and Gilbert.

Olsen, Robak, Jovo, etc. cannot be back next year. Petrovic is not ready. his corsi is really bad too (although small sample size)

I'm fine with bringing back Gudbranson as a #6, because as bad as he has been, it's still too early to give up on him. But if we're serious about competing for a playoff spot next season, he should be a #6 playing sheltered minutes until he learns how to play a pro game and improves his positioning, coverage and gaps.

We need to re-sign Gilbert and bring in two other, legitimate solid d-men. IF we can do that, I think our d could/should have a drastic turn around. It's alot easier to defend when you can trust your goalie because you know he isnt a sieve.

 

[jrockett1096]

if Gudbranson is our #4 next year, we won't make the playoffs, again.

Gilbert will find a team easily, and will get a multi-year deal. I'll make sure to remind you of this when he does.

By the numbers Gilbert is the best dman on the team and though he had a very rocky start he had a good season for himself playing on a top pairing on a NHL team after being a guy nobody wanted. He will sign with someone quickly and he will be a value d free agent in my opinion playing on 2nd d pairing somewhere.

If I had it my way Guds would play on the 3rd pairing here and learn how to play this game and same goes with Olsen but that would require signing a couple of free agents and Jovo retiring to push him and olsen down.

Unfortunately I just see us just replacing Gilbert with another Gilbert clone and everyone else staying put and having once again 3 dmen (Guds, Olsen, Kulikov) who are still learning how to play in the NHL with a Petrovic in the wings who is even more behind with experience. All of them have physical tools but for defenseman that means squat until they learn how to play in this league. I doubt Jovo retires with money on the table too which makes things worse as he poisons any development for these young guys. Basically what I am trying to say is we better get used to these guys and hope they click and become real blue liners next year because I don't think we have much of a choice.

 

[panthersfan94]

statistic's prove nothing, but if you want to play that game, erik gudbranson had the worst +/- in nhl history during his first two seasons. thoughts?

I'm not saying +/- is a great stat (It's quite the opposite actually), but if he is as bad as you say he is then he would have been a lot worse especially with Ellis in net.

As for my thoughts:
1. He was playing with Jovo.
2. He's improved this year as one would expect since he's only a -9, which is much better than his first 2 years.

Also you failed to answer either of my questions, was he as physical with the cage? and was our team better with him out, as one would expect if he was the 2nd worst player on our team?

 

[jrockett1096]

his bad pinch has nothing to do with his coverage, gap control or positioning. that's just a brainfart, which he also has plenty of.

statistic's prove nothing, but if you want to play that game, erik gudbranson had the worst +/- in nhl history during his first two seasons. thoughts?

the only stat that really tells you a defensman's true worth defensively is Corsi. the only d-men on this team with a positive corsi are, you guessed it, Brian Campbell, Tom Gilbert and Dmitry Kulikov.

Everyone else's is garbage.

Jovanovski's is laughably bad. (not surprising)

We have 3 legitimate NHL d-men right now. Campbell, Kulikov, and Gilbert.

Olsen, Robak, Jovo, etc. cannot be back next year. Petrovic is not ready. his corsi is really bad too (although small sample size)

I'm fine with bringing back Gudbranson as a #6, because as bad as he has been, it's still too early to give up on him. But if we're serious about competing for a playoff spot next season, he should be a #6 playing sheltered minutes until he learns how to play a pro game and improves his positioning, coverage and gaps.

We need to re-sign Gilbert and bring in two other, legitimate solid d-men. IF we can do that, I think our d could/should have a drastic turn around. It's alot easier to defend when you can trust your goalie because you know he isnt a sieve.

I agree with you. Jovo retiring would be a must in that scenario and signing 2 guys who are better than what we have here would put everyone in there competent places.

Guds should be playing sheltered minutes and same goes for Olsen. Those 2 got a long way to go but i think they can do it with time. Signing or trading for guys like that is a long shot though.

 

[panthersfan94]

I agree with you. Jovo retiring would be a must in that scenario and signing 2 guys who are better than what we have here would put everyone in there competent places.

Guds should be playing sheltered minutes and same goes for Olsen. Those 2 got a long way to go but i think they can do it with time. Signing or trading for guys like that is a long shot though.

IMO, best case scenario for our D next year:
1: Campbell-UFA/Trade
2: Kuli-UFA
3: Guds-Olsen
Petro

With Jovo retitred.

Just because I think Guds has been solid this year, that doesn't mean he's been a top pairing guy. I have no problem playing him on the 3rd pairing because that would mean we've significantly improved our porous defense. I also don't care if he plays 2nd pairing minutes either, especially if he's playing with Kuli, which would look something like this

Campbell-UFA/Trade
Kuli-Guds
UFA/Petro/Jovo-Olsen

I don't think that would be the end of the world as I expect the young guys to improve, as well as the new guy to be easily better than anything we have now (save for maybe Campbell). At some point our young guys (including prospects like Matheson and McCoshen) have to take over the team and make up most of our defense.

 

[jrockett1096]

IMO, best case scenario for our D next year:
1: Campbell-UFA/Trade
2: Kuli-UFA
3: Guds-Olsen
Petro

With Jovo retitred.

Just because I think Guds has been solid this year, that doesn't mean he's been a top pairing guy. I have no problem playing him on the 3rd pairing because that would mean we've significantly improved our porous defense. I also don't care if he plays 2nd pairing minutes either, especially if he's playing with Kuli, which would look something like this

Campbell-UFA/Trade
Kuli-Guds
UFA/Petro/Jovo-Olsen

I don't think that would be the end of the world as I expect the young guys to improve, as well as the new guy to be easily better than anything we have now (save for maybe Campbell). At some point our young guys (including prospects like Matheson and McCoshen) have to take over the team and make up most of our defense.

The 2nd scenario you have would have us in the Mcdavid sweepstakes easily. It likely will be 2016 until Guds, Olsen are stable NHL dmen in this league and more young guys like Petro, Matheson, Mac etc thrown in the mix while these guys are getting on the job training and we will be in the lottery for years to come. In my scenerio is similar to your first but with a little twist and it would be this.

Kulikov - UFA/trade #1 dman
Campbell - UFA/Gilbert
Olsen - Guds 10-12 minutes a game.

Jovo bought out as I don't think no way he leaves money on the table and retires.

I have Kulikov in our #1 pairing because I think he is the best athlete of all our dmen, best skater and physically able to handle any forward. He has scaled down his brain farts and I think mentally he is getting close and i think next year he finally will be more consistent. Physically he has always had what it takes. With a real number 1 beside him I think it would be a solid pairing and best of all it would allow Campbell to get less time on the ice and be more effective offensively. He looks dead out there and I don't think he particularly enjoys having to bang the biggest and best players every night. His checking out on this season right after the olympic break concerns me and i dont think he has had fun this season by any means.

Finally Guds and Olsen will get the least ice time and can play against 3rd and 4th lines and be a lot more sheltered than there are now and stop with the musical chairs of mixing d partners once and for all.

 

[SeasonTicket]

He got a PTO because his agent felt he was worth more, so he declined the offer the Wild gave him, holding out for a big contract. Turns out he wasn't worth as much as his agent thought. Same thing happened with Boyes, who rejected a 1 year deal with the Isles expecting a payday that never happened..

Speaking about Boyes, has anyone seen him since he signed his new deal?

 

[iam76]

i have seen his very good board work... but lets be honest with out barkov the killer b line is basically dead.

 

[EnforceTheLaus]

Yeah Boyes needs a wheel man to be most productive. His forecheck and board play is still there but Bjugs is a power forward, not a playmaker like Barkov.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Speaking about Boyes, has anyone seen him since he signed his new deal?

Well I hope it's because the team is decimated, but the fact that he knows he's safe in the NHL another 2 years now makes me wonder if he'll stop playing every shift like it could be his last in the league.

 

[IceManCat]

Its a bit of an oxymoron but Gudbranson needs to play big time minutes and he should be playing them now not Campbell. He is not playing well but I think like Kulikov he would improve his game if they gave him "work horse" minutes. The season is long gone anyway when you invest in a defensemen as your 3rd overall pick and he is now in his third season I don't see the logic of giving him sheltered minutes anymore even though he has not played well.

 

[FlaPanthers11]

the only stat that really tells you a defensman's true worth defensively is Corsi. the only d-men on this team with a positive corsi are, you guessed it, Brian Campbell, Tom Gilbert and Dmitry Kulikov.

Well there are two major problems here.

The first, is that you are using Corsi as the be all end all which is just wrong. So according to your logic, Jake Muzzin is in fact the best defenceman in the league, and by a nice margin as well.

Second, is that Gudbranson DOES have a positive Corsi, if, like your post implies, we are discussing overall Corsi and not relative Corsi. Gudbranson has a 50.3% Corsi for percentage. Also, amazingly enough, this is improvement from previous years! When he is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations, we are being outscored 36 to 30. With how bad our goaltending is along with the rest of the team, those numbers are fine.

 

[flapanthersfan]

Well there are two major problems here.

The first, is that you are using Corsi as the be all end all which is just wrong. So according to your logic, Jake Muzzin is in fact the best defenceman in the league, and by a nice margin as well.

Second, is that Gudbranson DOES have a positive Corsi, if, like your post implies, we are discussing overall Corsi and not relative Corsi. Gudbranson has a 50.3% Corsi for percentage. Also, amazingly enough, this is improvement from previous years! When he is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations, we are being outscored 36 to 30. With how bad our goaltending is along with the rest of the team, those numbers are fine.

relative corsi is the statistic that matters. overall corsi is basically as useless as +/-

Just a quick refresher, Corsi Relative (usually just written as Corsi Rel) basically measures the effect an individual player has on his team's overall Corsi performance. It can be used in +/- form or as a percentage (I'm gonna use the latter). Instead of just looking at a players Corsi For% (CF%), we can use CF% Rel to see how he is performing relative to his teammates.

thanks for playing, though.

 

[Lundell4Prez]

If you feel like being a negative nancy... Take your complaining to the rant thread.

 

[FlaPanthers11]

relative corsi is the statistic that matters. overall corsi is basically as useless as +/-


thanks for playing, though.

Oh please I knew that. I just decided it seemed like time to teach you the importance of specifics when having a discussion over the internet. I can't assume you know anything so I can only reply to what you type. Thanks for playing though.

Furthermore, I was actual hoping you would respond with that. Since you chose to take this route I might as well continue with an argument I brought up earlier. Tom Gilbert's Rel Corsi (note the specifics) is in fact +2.0% while his partner, Brian Campbell has a Rel Corsi of +3.8%. That's not good. Looks like Gilbert might want to send his buddy a thank you.

Also, I am in now way the least surprised that you chose Corsi as your be all and all because, as everyone here knows, despite all of Gilbert's mistakes and through all of his poor play, he has an inexplicably good Corsi, even earning the nickname "Mr. Corsi" with some.

So, thanks for playing into the argument. Unlike you I dont feel like getting into a senseless war of "I know more than you" which, as indicated by two of your recent posts, you seem intent on. I will simply present the facts and logic while letting you ignore my points and ride on your high horse presenting one stat.

So please, if you feel the desire to respond, answer all of the questions and statistics that I have raised in the last few posts with facts, stats, and logic.

 

[FlaPanthers11]

Delete. (Hit back on phone and it posted again )