Canadian team Stanley Cup drought - why?

drax0s

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Mar 18, 2014
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...I started by counting the total amount of NHL teams (31) and divided the total amount of Canadian teams (6) and came up with that around 20% of the teams are Canadian teams. That means that everything being equal a Canadian team should win the cup every five years. Why is that not happening?
Taxes might be a very small factor, but it's kind of like saying "Why are 20% of these plants not as large as the others", ignoring the fact that some of them were only planted 2 weeks ago. Teams grow and develop over time and decline. Right now, cups are generally being won by teams with NHL stars in their primes. It just happens to be right now that those starts were drafted by US teams.

Most superstar players have career years around 24/25 or so and taper off around 30. This age range is players would be drafted around 2004 - 2010. In this period, Canadian teams drafted in the top five 3 times. U.S. teams drafted top five 32 times. Only 9.38% of "peak age" star players went to Canadian teams - Taylor Hall, Carey Price & Luke Schenn (heh) and those that did paled in comparison to the talent that went to U.S teams. Compare that with Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Ryan, Toews, Kessel, Kane, Stamkos, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Seguin, Johansen, etc. It's clear that much of the prime talent is currently on U.S. teams. The Average Canadian team pick during this range was also worse overall, at 17.63 where U.S. teams have a pick average of 15. U.S. teams were getting better picks in the draft during the years that matter right now.

Canadian teams have only really started getting high draft picks in the past few years (Edmonton lottery luck withstanding). Toronto (Matthews, Marner), Calgary (Monahan, Bennett), Edmonton (Draisaitl, McDavid, Puljujarvi) and Winnipeg (Laine) Vancouver (Juolevi, Pettersson), Montreal this year.

I'd imagine we'll probably see a shift in that dynamic in 3-4 years when those star players enter their prime. Edmonton sort of fell apart this year, but Winnipeg and Toronto both made the playoffs this year. They're only going to get better as their players grow up.
 
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General Disarray

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Jul 21, 2016
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Earlier years due to salary cap.

Presently, because they are less motivated to do well. They're gonna make money regardless. It's why the Leafs took so long to do a rebuild. Canucks and Flames as well. Oilers did a rebuild but hired crappy people because again they don't need to best, they will make money. Habs may never do a rebuild. The one exception is the Jets. They HAVE to do it the right away because they are small market and are lucky to even have a team. Ottawa is another exception that just has a crappy owner so you can't really say much else about them.

I think media pressure plays a role as well.
 

Cenzo_

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Dec 11, 2006
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Depends on what you define as "Big Name". there are litterally none anymore signing anywhere. The last U.S one was probably Chara.(Devils if you count Kovalchuk, but that was his own team).

Ok when was the last time a 40+pts UFA D or 60+pts UFA forward signed in Canada
 

LeafsNation75

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Jan 15, 2010
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It's always arguable who is a big name because they never make it to UFA. I think the Canadian UFA signings lately are no different than Kyle Okposo and all the other horrible signings that did not help the U.S teams.
UFAs are not a way to win anyeways. No one is missing anything by not signing them.
Remember in July 2013 when David Clarkson was the big name UFA at that time and he signed in Toronto.
 

Cenzo_

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Dec 11, 2006
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Montreal
It's always arguable who is a big name because they never make it to UFA. I think the Canadian UFA signings lately are no different than Kyle Okposo and all the other horrible signings that did not help the U.S teams.
UFAs are not a way to win anyeways. No one is missing anything by not signing them.

Ok that's funny. you think Chicago wins without Hossa? Pittsburgh without Gonchar?
 
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Cotton

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May 13, 2013
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Who are some of the most recent big-name free agents to sign with a Canadian team? It seems like the stars choose to avoid the Great White North...which would explain the long drought. It's difficult to build a Cup-contender without a little help from Free Agency.

Which stars are signing south?

Truth is stars don’t typically reach free agency. So the narrative that they are avoiding Canada is bunk.
 

LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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Ok when was the last time a 40+pts UFA D or 60+pts UFA forward signed in Canada
It's been awhile. Pavel Kubina with the Leafs and Mike Cammelari off the top of my head.
Point is, I'm not even sure Canadian teams are trying to sign UFA's anyways. It's a terrible way to build.
 

HockeyFan100

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Oct 7, 2012
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Because it seems like it's always the Canadian teams that have the worst management. Montreal, Ottawa, Edmonton, Vancouver... and Toronto for a really long time. Stop hiring bad GMs!
 

LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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Which stars are signing south?

Truth is stars don’t typically reach free agency. So the narrative that they are avoiding Canada is bunk.
I agree. A solid 2nd line forward can be considred a "Big Name" nowadays. The big stars never reach UFA.
The last big, great UFA signing was Chara.
Canadian teams are not even trying to sign these guys. So no one is avoiding Canada. Stamkos was the closest since Chara to be a UFA superstar and the only team he spoke with was a Canadian one.
Poor Canadian teams not signing Andrew Ladd...
 
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Reality Check

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May 28, 2008
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Can anyone explain why Canadian teams have not won the Stanley cup for 25 years since 1993? I started by counting the total amount of NHL teams (31) and divided the total amount of Canadian teams (6) and came up with that around 20% of the teams are Canadian teams. That means that everything being equal a Canadian team should win the cup every five years. Why is that not happening?

The curse of Patrick Roy
 
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LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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Ok that's funny. you think Chicago wins without Hossa? Pittsburgh without Gonchar?
Chicago wins that first cup without Hossa, yes. Not sure of the other 2. They never matched the depth of that 2010-11 team.
Gonchar was not a big name at all by the time he went to Pittsburgh.
Hossa was a cap circumvention contract.
 

LeafFever

Registered User
Feb 12, 2016
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Imagine NBA fans thinking their big stars would rather play in Milwaukee than LA or New York.
We only hear that in hockey. Yankees would not touch a player hesitant for the big coverage.
 

Melrose Munch

Registered User
Mar 18, 2007
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Imagine NBA fans thinking their big stars would rather play in Milwaukee than LA or New York.
We only hear that in hockey. Yankees would not touch a player hesitant for the big coverage.
hockey players are low key and don't like the spotlight.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
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Prior to the salary cap, a good number of Canadian teams were have nots financially, though we did have a stretch where a Canadian team was in the finals every year, 2004, 2006 and 2007 and almost won it all.
 

thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
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Canada
1 - People will pay as much money as you want to charge them even if the team sucks.
2 - Pressure to win from the media scares players over to America.
3 - Pressure to win from the fans scares players over to America.
4 - We've got less teams.
 

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