Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part IX

[Daximus]

Yeah, I agree that there's more to look at than only the xGF%.

We had a delta of almost +4% GF% against xGF% (despite Hellebuyck having a down year in 18/19) in the 3 seasons before this, and a delta of about +6.5% this year, mostly driven by Hellebuyck (10 fewer goals against than expected). So yeah, at some point people who pretend to be all about the stats need to stop just calling the Jets a garbage team getting lucky and start questioning what's going on there.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have a possession dominant team performing in line where they should as we are extremely susceptible to a goaltending of shooting slump, but it's disingenuous (or ignorant) to just say we're on 4 years running of getting lucky.

This is exactly it. 40 games isn't much of a sample sure, but this has been going on for multiple seasons now. We remain middle the of the pack or better in the standings and yet the advanced stats tell us we should be at the very bottom. Elite scoring coupled with elite goaltending has allowed us to buck the trend. The Jets don't seem to care if they get outshot, especially if they can keep most shots to where Hellebuyck can see them. The vast majority of times Helle gets scored on it seems like it's a deflection or he's screened. If he sees the puck, he's likely to stop it. On the flip side the Jets aren't the type of team that is going to throw anything and everything at the net. They pick their shots and seem to pick them pretty well. 20 shots is all they need to win a game it seems.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Bogosian has had some of the best PK "analytic" numbers for awhile. Considering his last two teams have been Tampa and Toronto I think he probably grades out better in underlying stats than your assumption.

I would also bring up Justin Holl, a guy the Leafa believed in because of his underlying stats that didn't get much of a chance under the previous coach. He seems like a good example of someone analytics found that traditional scouts had ignored.

Holl is a good example for sure. I just think with Bogosian, a large portion of the fan base (maybe anti analytics) have wanted a dman like him for ages.

 

[The90]

Holl is a good example for sure. I just think with Bogosian, a large portion of the fan base (maybe anti analytics) have wanted a dman like him for ages.

Polak was similar. And shockingly once polak left, the team struggled

 

[All Mod Cons]

I don't know what's funnier - the comment itself or the fact that someone couldn't even pick up the sarcasm.

It speaks to HF when a poster can't be sure if Matthews being outside the top 30 is sarcasm or not.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean it isn't a black and white situation. You can't just point at a spread sheet say Montreal has the puck a lot so they are a great team, you need to add the context around what their actual roster is and the fact that they lack game breakers. On the other end you can't say possession metrics do not matter because guess what happens when you couple elite possession with elite talent? The Avalanche and the Lightning happen. The Jets and the Habs are just two sides of a coin each missing what the other team has in order to become a great team.

For clarification, I was referring specifically to situations where a team has great analytics but not elite talent versus a team with elite talent with average analytics.

Obviously if a team has both elite talent AND great possession numbers, that's a whole other story. But my original post was in relation to teams that only had 1 of the two things. IMO, elite talent combined with average analytics trumps great analytics with average talent over a large sample size.

 

[winnipegger]

Re: Montreal
I do think the analogy holds if you really think about it. It's the opposite when the Jets play the Oilers. Matthews and Marner are scary players too. The last time I was scared of a Montreal player was Kovalev I think.

 

[The Panther]

Montreal hasn't had a 100-point scorer since Mats Naslund in 1986, which is rather weird. I mean, it's now 35 years. And he's the only one in the past 40 years. (Even in the 1980s, they managed one player with one 100-point season.)

 

[HabsDood]

Montreal hasn't had a 100-point scorer since Mats Naslund in 1986, which is rather weird. I mean, it's now 35 years. And he's the only one in the past 40 years. (Even in the 1980s, they managed one player with one 100-point season.)

Caufield is coming

 

[cyris]

Caufield is coming

Well as long as you’re expectations for him are reasonable.....

 

[sharks9]

That's the best description of the Montreal Canadiens that I've ever read! Hilarious, and true!

I'm old enough that when I think of the Habs, I think of the four Stanley Cups they won from 1976 to 1979. That was, by a wide margin, the greatest hockey team I've ever seen, and even when they win, the Habs of this century are just an embarrassment in comparison. If I lived in Montreal, the last 40 years would have been painful to watch, even the couple of years they won it all. Just no comparison.

Watching multiple Cup wins would be painful for you? How do you even watch your team then?

 

[HabsDood]

Well as long as you’re expectations for him are reasonable.....

Naslund +

He had his pro debut tonight.

 

[Hollywood3]

Well, whatever it was might have been contagious as Tampa had the same issues as well the next 4 games against the Jackets (Although Tampa countered it with their own keeper shutting the door and making big saves in big moments)

Leafs 5v5 against Columbus last playoffs:

CF%: 52.23 (9th highest out of 24 teams)
SF%: 52.86 (8th highest out of 24 teams)
SCF%: 54.58 (5th highest out of 24teams)
HDCF%:58.70 (4th highest out of 24 teams)
xGF%: 54.64 (9th highest out of 24 teams)
GF%: 23.25 (23rd highest out of 24 teams)

Leafs save%: 92.61
Jackets save%: 98


"Hmmm, I wonder what happened? OH I know! The Leafs choked!"

but what about game 4 when they made one of the greatest comebacks in NHL history?

"Doesnt matter...choked!"

(Korpisalo sets the NHL playoff save record the very next game against Tampa after the series)

"Pay no attention to that, the Leafs choked!"




It's all in good fun I guess and part of being a fan. Can't see us getting goalied that hard again this year....(Arg, Pretty sure I just jinxed us as Price is going time machine or Helle gonna go Vezina on us now)

A perfect illustration of the uselessness of those statistics.

 

[Hollywood3]

I don't think anyone pretends the stats are the end all be all but they usually give a good indication of the direction of success into the future. Since 2010 there's been what, 2 teams to win the cup that weren't a top analytic team? Even then, those two that weren't were still middle of the road. It is a strong indicator of success.

40 games isn't a big enough sample to conclude they are bucking the long term trend. There are lots of teams that have gone on stretches of similar length or longer looking like an outlier before getting slapped in the face.

There is of course nothing wrong with being optimistic about your team, you just probably won't convince many skeptics with a "this time is different" stance.

The much maligned plus/minus statistic would yield the same results.

 

[cyris]

Naslund +

He had his pro debut tonight.

How many NHL players score 100 points in a normal year?
5 maybe....

If you are expecting a kid who has never even played an NHL game to become a top 5 offensive player in the league in a given year you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Especially one that is 5’7.

Now I’m not saying he won’t be that good but if that is what you are expecting you probably won’t be happy

 

[Hollywood3]

This is exactly it. 40 games isn't much of a sample sure, but this has been going on for multiple seasons now. We remain middle the of the pack or better in the standings and yet the advanced stats tell us we should be at the very bottom. Elite scoring coupled with elite goaltending has allowed us to buck the trend. The Jets don't seem to care if they get outshot, especially if they can keep most shots to where Hellebuyck can see them. The vast majority of times Helle gets scored on it seems like it's a deflection or he's screened. If he sees the puck, he's likely to stop it. On the flip side the Jets aren't the type of team that is going to throw anything and everything at the net. They pick their shots and seem to pick them pretty well. 20 shots is all they need to win a game it seems.

That's the way the Soviets played in the 70s and 80s.

 

[Hollywood3]

While that may be true to an extent, Carey Price is still capable of winning a playoff series on his own.

Same can be said of every goaltender.

 

[HabsDood]

How many NHL players score 100 points in a normal year?
5 maybe....

If you are expecting a kid who has never even played an NHL game to become a top 5 offensive player in the league in a given year you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Especially one that is 5’7.

Now I’m not saying he won’t be that good but if that is what you are expecting you probably won’t be happy

I'm patient and like to dream

 

[hockeyes]

The much maligned plus/minus statistic would yield the same results.

I am not really sure what you are trying to say here, can you expand on what your point is?

 

[aufheben]

While that may be true to an extent, Carey Price is still capable of winning a playoff series on his own.

”Still”? When was the first time?

 

[muddywaters]

Johnny and Chucky playing on the same line tonight in Edmonton ... Sutter mixing things up .....

 

[The90]

”Still”? When was the first time?

Literally the play ins last year? You live under a rock or?

 

[King K Rool]

Watching the Oilers struggle during our 2007-2016 playoff drought was like watching an adult man struggling in a pool wearing water wings and an inflatable flamingo tube for ten years. Only the Sabres can "proudly" boast an equal level of incompetence. And witnessing it left many of us still asking ourselves "Have things really changed though?".

My point being the Leafs have never sunk to those depths, so I don't get where this "5 years of tanking" talk is coming from. I KNOW what "tanking" looks like.

If anything the Leafs tanked in 2015 (along with ARZ and BUF, EDM was sheer incompetence). Even in the year they finished 30th they still had 29 wins and 69 points. We've recently seen teams finish with abysmal point totals in the 40s and 50s, years like 2007-08 and 2015-16 are outliers.

 

[Brobust]

Watching the Oilers struggle during our 2007-2016 playoff drought was like watching an adult man struggling in a pool wearing water wings and an inflatable flamingo tube for ten years. Only the Sabres can "proudly" boast an equal level of incompetence. And witnessing it left many of us still asking ourselves "Have things really changed though?".

My point being the Leafs have never sunk to those depths, so I don't get where this "5 years of tanking" talk is coming from. I KNOW what "tanking" looks like.

If anything the Leafs tanked in 2015 (along with ARZ and BUF, EDM was sheer incompetence). Even in the year they finished 30th they still had 29 wins and 69 points. We've recently seen teams finish with abysmal point totals in the 40s and 50s, years like 2007-08 and 2015-16 are outliers.

13-14 Leafs situation was arguably worse than whatever turmoil the Sabres are experiencing right now.

 

[Flair Hay]

13-14 Leafs situation was arguably worse than whatever turmoil the Sabres are experiencing right now.

I would very strongly disagree

Being stuck in the middle and having to make some hard choices is a lot better spot to be than a full on culture disaster that spreads to any player that plays there

 

[Hollywood3]

I am not really sure what you are trying to say here, can you expand on what your point is?

Plus/minus on goal difference has a greater correlation with standings then plus/minus with territory, possession, etc.