I'm not concerned with definitive statements about 'yes;' or 'no', just 'can'. Is this group capable? Do you think they'll at least be in the conversation?
I agree. I believe they would make it in the current Atlantic but will be put into proverbial group of death.Depends.
Are they in the Atlantic? Or that proposed group of death due to the All Canadian Division.
I have a hard time seeing any of the top 6 teams from last season dropping out. (Boston, Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Philadelphia)
And the rebuilding teams I can't seeing making the playoffs (Detroit, Ottawa, New Jersey)
Then for the 2 remaining spots you have 7 bubble teams (Columbus, Toronto, NY Islanders, Montreal, Florida, NY Rangers, Buffalo.)
Who could Buffalo be better than?
I think actually Montreal is the worst in that group with Buffalo getting Hall, they weren't much better than Buffalo in the regular season, not putting that much stock in how the playins happend, too many variables.
Florida could continue struggle with Bobrovski.
Columbus and NY Islanders are well coached over performers, they could fall back, these teams tend to when the motivation starts to slip.
Next year I could see them just missing it with Maple Leafs and Rangers grabbing the two final spots.
i think you're being too generous with those 6.
Personally the teams I can't see miss playoffs are:
Tampa. Pretty obvious. Still best team on paper + cup champs.
Washington. They looked like shit in playoffs - but they won divisions 5x in a row or so? New coach will help a lot.
Pittsburgh. Crosby/Malkin duo is simply too good. And you can easily notice the trend past few years, when Pitt is floundering a bit in season, both players step up huge to right the ship. So I think they're too good to miss.
That's my only 3 "can't miss" teams.
Boston - I think injuries are significant. I think Marchand and Pastrnak both out for a while, so we'll see. I think Bruin fans should be concerned Chara doesn't have a contract yet either. I think it could affect team dynamics a lot if he's gone.
Philadelphia. They looked really bad in the playoffs - and many of their top scorers were just bad. I don't see them as a top team. I think they're certainly among teams who can qualify - and as they showed last year they can even have a great season - but to me I can very easily things going the other way too and them missing. A possibility - not certainty.
Carolina. They've been pretty solid for a couple of years - and certainly have a lot of talent - but they've yet to be anything more than a bubble team. Always fighting for playoffs till the very end. It's easy to end up on the outside looking in vs on the inside looking out when you're so close to the line. I think they probably make it - but it's a possibility, not certainty.
The rest of your post pretty much explains my reasoning - there's just so many good teams:
Montreal - big improvements in off-season, and Price having a strong backup should help him be better rested and more consistent
Leafs - Struggled a bit last season, but this is a very talented team that should be in the mix and more than likely qualify
Florida - Bob *should* be better right? They have talent too
Buffalo - Lots of great off-season moves. Dahlin + Eichel are super solid. Something's gotta give eventually
Rangers - Such a strong performer late last season, and Lafreniere is just an added bonus. Should be a very good team
NYI - They made the ECF. We keep saying they outperform expectations - but at some point, you gotta start expecting it
Columbus - Surprised almost everyone last year by playing so well in season - and in playoffs - despite major losses. Should be in the mix again.
Yeah I think I'd be absolutely shocked if any of Pitt, Washington or Tampa miss playoffs. I think it's wide open after that (and that's without considering potential re-alignments for next season, that could mess things up even more).
I think realignment is all but guaranteed at this point, I think the Canadian division is likely, which would probably put Buffalo with NYR, NYI, NJ, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington.
NJ aside that is brutal and even NJ is better in net, not overall but absolutely in net
Canadian division in particular would be hardest to call. Because there's simply no shoe-in there. I'd be shocked to see Ottawa win division (or make playoffs) - but I could see every single other team make a run for #1.
I also agree that if Buffalo gets dumped in an even harder division (don't forget Tampa also in the east who could be in same division), their chances decrease drastically.