Prospect Info: Can the Canes find another Pesce/Slavin

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The final list of D-men who the PSF model likes. As Sheriff Bart notes above, the original concept was to identify prospects ranked outside the top 50, so I have excluded two players who the model identified early but who have since shot up the prospect rankings: Peart and Zellweger. Though I think taking Peart at 26 would be smart.

In any event, here is this year's list:

Aidan Hreschuk
Guillaume Richard
Ryan Ufko
Kalle Ervasti
Topias Vilen
Vladislav Lukashevich
Jake Martin
Jacob Guevin

A USHL Defenseman going to NCAA named Jacob Guevin? How can we not draft that guy?

 

[A Star is Burns]

A USHL Defenseman going to NCAA named Jacob Guevin? How can we not draft that guy?

Not enough c's.

 

[emptyNedder]

The 2021 draft thread is closed, so I am putting this here. 2020 Mom's Basement Stakes

I participated in a draft game on the Prospects thread. They used the Buffalo picks. Thought I did pretty well compared to the Sabres actual choices. So I decided to use the rules and compare to the Canes picks. Here are the players I would have taken:

40. Peart
44. Raty
51. Koivunen
83. Hreschuk
94. Roulette
109. Ervasti
136. Arcuri
147. Alarie
170. Stringer
187. Guevin
200. P Moravec
209. Koen MacInnes
219. My list was used up


Only ended up with one goalie--only had two on the list and Gage Alexander was after several of the players on the list.

 

[raynman]

The final list of D-men who the PSF model likes. As Sheriff Bart notes above, the original concept was to identify prospects ranked outside the top 50, so I have excluded two players who the model identified early but who have since shot up the prospect rankings: Peart and Zellweger. Though I think taking Peart at 26 would be smart.

In any event, here is this year's list:

Aidan Hreschuk
Guillaume Richard
Ryan Ufko
Kalle Ervasti
Topias Vilen
Vladislav Lukashevich
Jake Martin
Jacob Guevin

I am not confident in the raw scores this year because of the varying number of games--you will notice the USHL is probably over-represented because the league played most of the season. Three players who were creeping up were Tyson Hinds, Ethan Samson, and Tyson Galloway.

As for value considering the Canes draft spots, my suggestions would be Vilen or Richard in the 3rd and Ervasti in the 4th. Obviously if any of these names are still around using one or two of the three 7th-round picks would be great. Hreschuk is a tough call because I don't think he makes it to the late 3rd but not sure about using the 2nd-round pick.

Where do the Canes picks from the draft fall on your model?

 

[NotOpie]

The 2021 draft thread is closed, so I am putting this here. 2020 Mom's Basement Stakes

I participated in a draft game on the Prospects thread. They used the Buffalo picks. Thought I did pretty well compared to the Sabres actual choices. So I decided to use the rules and compare to the Canes picks. Here are the players I would have taken:

40. Peart
44. Raty
51. Koivunen
83. Hreschuk
94. Roulette
109. Ervasti
136. Arcuri
147. Alarie
170. Stringer
187. Guevin
200. P Moravec
209. Koen MacInnes
219. My list was used up


Only ended up with one goalie--only had two on the list and Gage Alexander was after several of the players on the list.

I believe Alarie went undrafted??? That surprised me as I had him as a solid Canes type of pick.

 

[emptyNedder]

Where do the Canes picks from the draft fall on your model?

I think Morrow is a good, possibly exceptional pick. I just don't have confidence in the statistics from high school as levels of competition are so varied. For instance, in comparing Peart to Morrow, Peart had 24 regular seasons USHL games where Morrow had none, Peart had 9 playoff games and Morrow 6.

The model does an ok, but not great, job of differentiating levels of competition by scoring NCAA and pro leagues (SHL, Liiga) more highly then CHL, USHL, and foreign u 20 leagues.

Heimosalmi had a solid PSF, but his production relative to other defensemen on his team didn't raise him into the top tier.

Hreschuk is someone the model identified as a solid pick around 75 of later--thus his appearance as a Canes pick and on my own list.

Montgomery just didn't have any data for this season.

 

[emptyNedder]

As an additional note related to Hreschuk. I may have to give the USNTDP extra value in future iterations. For the past few seasons the US produced some real value picks from their D corps. Helleson, Thrun, and Faber are three of my favorite prospects. Hreschuk seems to be another from that vein.

 

[emptyNedder]

Starting to see lists for the 22 draft.

Here are the D-men who could be undervalued at this early stage:

Oskar Asplund
Angus Booth (Callum's brother)
Jorian Donovan
Ayrtom Duda (may end up being inside top 50 on some lists)
Nils Feneko
Tomas Hamara
Kasper Kulonummi
Christian Kyrou
Pavel Mintyukov
Calle Odelius
Graham Sward
Hudson Thornton

 

[emptyNedder]

With Seeley making the WJC 20 team, the model is getting closer to having a clear success.

In fact, the 2020 list is looking really strong 16 months later:

1. Ronan Seeley started in the top 3 based on the pre-modified model. He is now clearly #1 with a PSF of 1.95.
2. Samuel Knazko has also remained near the top of the list all season. He finished with a PSF of 1.52.
3. Brock Faber scores 1.16.
4. Eamon Powell scores 1.10.
5. Viktor Persson scores 1.04 (the one player in the top five with some height at 6'2")
6. Axel Kumlin scores 1.00 HM: Mans Forsfjall and Lleyton Moore score .98.

Faber, if anything, has progressed further than Seeley. Knazko has been bouncing around--however he was one of the younger players in the 2020 draft like Seeley, and will be appearing in the WJC 20 for a second time. Powell has been solid in the NCAA.

Early returns indicate the model was good in 2021 as well--though I think Seeley will be the poster child for the next season or two--maybe Richard from the 2021 draft has similar "hidden" potential.

 

[emptyNedder]

Posting this after the draft. The reason is I was trying to determine if there is real interest from a team or, at least, scouting service. So I didn't want to "give away" the results prior to the draft. Because it appears I am a long way from finding a taker, I thought I would memorialize the 2022 results.

Artyom Duda had a really high score, but I was a bit skeptical. Those of you who have read the introductory information know that penalty minutes are part of the model. Duda was not penalized a single time the past two MHL seasons (92 games). I joked in the prospect threat he must be related to Putin. In any event, my model indicated he should be drafted in the 2nd round and that is where Arizona took him.

The standouts this year were:
Jake Furlong--his second half was outstanding. His score was slightly above average in January, but he catapulted to the top of the list by the end of the season.
Adam Engstrom--he was on a team with some highly-touted prospects. His defensive teammate Calle Oedlius was mentioned as a possible late 1st rounder--who was drafted at the end of the 2nd. PSF indicated that Engstrom had as much potential. Thanks to @swedishprospects for providing some insights from live viewings.
Tomas Hamara--was in the top 3-4 all season. After a very productive WJC 18, I thought he might become a scouting darling, but he still went 87th. He should be one of the 3rd round steals.
Frederic Brunet--was a D+1 prospect who hung around the top of the list all season. I am still not comfortable how much to discount the extra year. Since the past two years have been unprecedented and Brunet was less than a month from being a first-time eligible, I didn't discount his being D+1 at all in this instance.

Two of the prospects I mentioned in November rose greatly in prominence:
Mintyukov became a scouting community favorite, even being mentioned as a possible top 10 pick. So he was no longer a "find.:
Likewise, Christian Kyrou garnered a lot of notice and ended up going 50th. Ironically, PSF saw him drop quite a bit as the season progressed.

The others ended up with reasonable numbers, but none were obviously under-valued.

 

[The Jerk Store]

So I guess we found another Slavin as far as the prospects camp was concerned.

 

[emptyNedder]

Posting this after the draft. The reason is I was trying to determine if there is real interest from a team or, at least, scouting service. So I didn't want to "give away" the results prior to the draft. Because it appears I am a long way from finding a taker, I thought I would memorialize the 2022 results.

Artyom Duda had a really high score, but I was a bit skeptical. Those of you who have read the introductory information know that penalty minutes are part of the model. Duda was not penalized a single time the past two MHL seasons (92 games). I joked in the prospect threat he must be related to Putin. In any event, my model indicated he should be drafted in the 2nd round and that is where Arizona took him.

The standouts this year were:
Jake Furlong--his second half was outstanding. His score was slightly above average in January, but he catapulted to the top of the list by the end of the season.
Adam Engstrom--he was on a team with some highly-touted prospects. His defensive teammate Calle Oedlius was mentioned as a possible late 1st rounder--who was drafted at the end of the 2nd. PSF indicated that Engstrom had as much potential. Thanks to @swedishprospects for providing some insights from live viewings.
Tomas Hamara--was in the top 3-4 all season. After a very productive WJC 18, I thought he might become a scouting darling, but he still went 87th. He should be one of the 3rd round steals.
Frederic Brunet--was a D+1 prospect who hung around the top of the list all season. I am still not comfortable how much to discount the extra year. Since the past two years have been unprecedented and Brunet was less than a month from being a first-time eligible, I didn't discount his being D+1 at all in this instance.

Two of the prospects I mentioned in November rose greatly in prominence:
Mintyukov became a scouting community favorite, even being mentioned as a possible top 10 pick. So he was no longer a "find.:
Likewise, Christian Kyrou garnered a lot of notice and ended up going 50th. Ironically, PSF saw him drop quite a bit as the season progressed.

The others ended up with reasonable numbers, but none were obviously under-valued.

With the AS break, I have been revisiting my model's performance. The 2022 version has performed well 2/3 of a season in. Both Engstrom and Brunet have stood out in 22-23. Engstrom is playing more than 15 minutes a game in one of the top 4 leagues in the world as a 19-year-old. Brunet is having a terrific offensive season--comparable to the much more touted Zellweger and Mintyukov, who Brunet is only one and three months older than respectively.
Furlong, while not as productive as Brunet, is having a consistently solid D+1. Hamara is the only one of the four who hasn't performed above his draft spot thus far.

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

Haven't followed Seeley too much this year but a jump to the pros as a 7th round pick usually takes some time.

And answering the question posed in the title of this thread, the answer is - Yes. Jalen Chatfield.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

With the AS break, I have been revisiting my model's performance. The 2022 version has performed well 2/3 of a season in. Both Engstrom and Brunet have stood out in 22-23. Engstrom is playing more than 15 minutes a game in one of the top 4 leagues in the world as a 19-year-old. Brunet is having a terrific offensive season--comparable to the much more touted Zellweger and Mintyukov, who Brunet is only one and three months older than respectively.
Furlong, while not as productive as Brunet, is having a consistently solid D+1. Hamara is the only one of the four who hasn't performed above his draft spot thus far.

Given it's the Pesce-Slavin model, how heavily does the model weigh (and predict) offensive output? Or was it that Brunet already had offensive production prior the the draft, it's not weighted heavily in the model? Just curious how the model treats more offensive defensemen.

 

[emptyNedder]

Given it's the Pesce-Slavin model, how heavily does the model weigh (and predict) offensive output? Or was it that Brunet already had offensive production prior the the draft, it's not weighted heavily in the model? Just curious how the model treats more offensive defensemen.

Good question. It gives what I would call equal weight to offense. First, any highly-skilled D is going to score at the junior level (Slavin scored .50 ppg his draft year, though Pesce hadn't produced much since his 15-year-old season). Second, just as in the NHL, being more productive can compensate for being closer to average in the defensive end.

I will test the model as I make tweaks. Middle-round "finds" like Adam Fox and Tyson Barrie score well. I want the model to identify those types of undervalued D as well.

As far as predicting offensive output, I will leave that to the NHLe folks. I am just trying to find the Goldilocks combination of statistical measures that create a composite score to identify a defenseman taken outside the top 50 who is likely to be undervalued.

Edit: Furlong, Engstrom, and Hamara were definitely more Pesce/Slavin types. Brunet is one of the few big producers the model has dentified in its 4 years (early on Zac Jones was a more offensive type the model identified).

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Forsmark is off the a good start

 

[emptyNedder]

2023 Model

This year the model liked:
Hunter Brustewicz
Paul Fischer
Peteris Bulans
Norwin Panocha

 

[MinJaBen]

2023 Model

This year the model liked:
Hunter Brustewicz
Paul Fischer
Peteris Bulans
Norwin Panocha

Paul Fischer seems like the perfect Pesce comparison.

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

We have a guy whose first name is not only hyphenated, but also is named Alexis.
Top that!

 

[Navin R Slavin]

2023 Model

This year the model liked:
Hunter Brustewicz
Paul Fischer
Peteris Bulans
Norwin Panocha

Do you have a collection of the names your model has picked, and how they've done?

 

[emptyNedder]

Do you have a collection of the names your model has picked, and how they've done?

Sorry for the tardy reply. Have been moving for what seems like at least a month. In fact, the Goodwill tried to have a missing person report filed on me this past Monday because it was the first time in 3 weeks I hadn't been there at least twice in one day.

I don't keep an official list/spreadsheet. But here are the prospects identified 2020-22 and my subjective opinion of their current value.

2020--Overall I would say Grade=B

Ronan Seeley--progressing with the Canes--looks like he should have gone in the 2nd or 3rd. I am still confident he becomes a solid NHLer.
Samuel Knazko--like Seeley playing in AHL with decent progress. He had a late season call-up for 2 games with Columbus in April and played in the World Championships for Slovakia.
Brock Faber--This is the Pesce/Slavin from 2020. Go read the Minnesota forum about his play at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Will definitely be top 20 in a re-draft. Los Angeles drafted him 45 OA, which was higher than any scouting list had him.
Eamonn Powell--had a good year at Boston College leading the team in points for a D and leading all skaters in +/-. I think he is probably better than a 4th rounder at this point, but at best 25% to make it to the NHL.
Viktor Persson--went in the 7th and hasn't done anything to suggest he should have gone higher, likely stays in Sweden for his career.
Axel Kumlin--didn't get drafted. Playing at Miami of Ohio. Like Persson hasn't shown any development that suggests he will ever play in NHL.

2021--Overall Grade = C

Aidan Hreschuk--drafted by the Canes in the 3rd and traded to Columbus. Playing with Powell at BC, hasn't shown much offense in college.
Guillaume Richard--a Columbus prospect (like Hreschuk now) playing at Providence. Had a nice freshman season but didn't progress as a sophomore.
Ryan Ufko--playing with Scott Morrow at UMass. Almost as productive and was top-scoring D for the USA at the most recent U20. One of stars of this group so far.
Kalle Ervasti--Still one of my favorites. Played the entire season in Liiga as a 19-year-old this past season and was on Finland's U20 team getting 3 assists in 4 games.
Topias Vilen--Up there with Ufko for the most impressive on this list. Played in Liiga as both 18 and 19-year-old. Given the bigger names (Hughes and Nemec) in the NJ D pipeline, Vilen is still a bit of a long-shot, but he is definitely out-performing his draft position.
Vladislav Lukashevich--While Lukashevich went in the 4th to Florida, he really hasn't shown much since being drafted.
Jake Martin--not drafted. Going to Quinnipiac, maybe he will be one of their late-developing success stories.
Jacob Guevin--Not drafted. Had a decent year at Nebraska-Omaha.

I wrote this at the time: I am not confident in the raw scores this year because of the varying number of games--you will notice the USHL is probably over-represented because the league played most of the season. Three players who were creeping up were Tyson Hinds, Ethan Samson, and Tyson Galloway.


2022--Overall Grade A

Jake Furlong--One of the better defenders in the Q. Really good against the puck and solid, if unspectacular, in the offensive zone.
Adam Engstrom--Probably just behind Faber as the model's best result. Played his D+1 season in the SHL and was the highest scoring D under 20 and scored almost as well as fellow 2022 draftees Marco Kasper and Filip Bystedt. Ironically, most pre-draft reports suggested he was a defense-first prospect.
Tomas Hamara--had a so-so year on a team that really struggled, so the jury is out.
Frederic Brunet--much like Engstrom he looks to be a steal as a 5th round pick. Second among D for points in the Q, he also added two assists in one AHL appearance.


I am pretty sure moving forward I will limit the list to 4-5 prospects. Overall, I am satisfied that it improves on how prospects are valued.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Sorry for the tardy reply. Have been moving for what seems like at least a month. In fact, the Goodwill tried to have a missing person report filed on me this past Monday because it was the first time in 3 weeks I hadn't been there at least twice in one day.

I don't keep an official list/spreadsheet. But here are the prospects identified 2020-22 and my subjective opinion of their current value.

2020--Overall I would say Grade=B

Ronan Seeley--progressing with the Canes--looks like he should have gone in the 2nd or 3rd. I am still confident he becomes a solid NHLer.
Samuel Knazko--like Seeley playing in AHL with decent progress. He had a late season call-up for 2 games with Columbus in April and played in the World Championships for Slovakia.
Brock Faber--This is the Pesce/Slavin from 2020. Go read the Minnesota forum about his play at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Will definitely be top 20 in a re-draft. Los Angeles drafted him 45 OA, which was higher than any scouting list had him.
Eamonn Powell--had a good year at Boston College leading the team in points for a D and leading all skaters in +/-. I think he is probably better than a 4th rounder at this point, but at best 25% to make it to the NHL.
Viktor Persson--went in the 7th and hasn't done anything to suggest he should have gone higher, likely stays in Sweden for his career.
Axel Kumlin--didn't get drafted. Playing at Miami of Ohio. Like Persson hasn't shown any development that suggests he will ever play in NHL.

2021--Overall Grade = C

Aidan Hreschuk--drafted by the Canes in the 3rd and traded to Columbus. Playing with Powell at BC, hasn't shown much offense in college.
Guillaume Richard--a Columbus prospect (like Hreschuk now) playing at Providence. Had a nice freshman season but didn't progress as a sophomore.
Ryan Ufko--playing with Scott Morrow at UMass. Almost as productive and was top-scoring D for the USA at the most recent U20. One of stars of this group so far.
Kalle Ervasti--Still one of my favorites. Played the entire season in Liiga as a 19-year-old this past season and was on Finland's U20 team getting 3 assists in 4 games.
Topias Vilen--Up there with Ufko for the most impressive on this list. Played in Liiga as both 18 and 19-year-old. Given the bigger names (Hughes and Nemec) in the NJ D pipeline, Vilen is still a bit of a long-shot, but he is definitely out-performing his draft position.
Vladislav Lukashevich--While Lukashevich went in the 4th to Florida, he really hasn't shown much since being drafted.
Jake Martin--not drafted. Going to Quinnipiac, maybe he will be one of their late-developing success stories.
Jacob Guevin--Not drafted. Had a decent year at Nebraska-Omaha.

I wrote this at the time: I am not confident in the raw scores this year because of the varying number of games--you will notice the USHL is probably over-represented because the league played most of the season. Three players who were creeping up were Tyson Hinds, Ethan Samson, and Tyson Galloway.


2022--Overall Grade A

Jake Furlong--One of the better defenders in the Q. Really good against the puck and solid, if unspectacular, in the offensive zone.
Adam Engstrom--Probably just behind Faber as the model's best result. Played his D+1 season in the SHL and was the highest scoring D under 20 and scored almost as well as fellow 2022 draftees Marco Kasper and Filip Bystedt. Ironically, most pre-draft reports suggested he was a defense-first prospect.
Tomas Hamara--had a so-so year on a team that really struggled, so the jury is out.
Frederic Brunet--much like Engstrom he looks to be a steal as a 5th round pick. Second among D for points in the Q, he also added two assists in one AHL appearance.


I am pretty sure moving forward I will limit the list to 4-5 prospects. Overall, I am satisfied that it improves on how prospects are valued.

send it to tulsky

 

[bleedgreen]

Sorry for the tardy reply. Have been moving for what seems like at least a month. In fact, the Goodwill tried to have a missing person report filed on me this past Monday because it was the first time in 3 weeks I hadn't been there at least twice in one day.

I don't keep an official list/spreadsheet. But here are the prospects identified 2020-22 and my subjective opinion of their current value.

2020--Overall I would say Grade=B

Ronan Seeley--progressing with the Canes--looks like he should have gone in the 2nd or 3rd. I am still confident he becomes a solid NHLer.
Samuel Knazko--like Seeley playing in AHL with decent progress. He had a late season call-up for 2 games with Columbus in April and played in the World Championships for Slovakia.
Brock Faber--This is the Pesce/Slavin from 2020. Go read the Minnesota forum about his play at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Will definitely be top 20 in a re-draft. Los Angeles drafted him 45 OA, which was higher than any scouting list had him.
Eamonn Powell--had a good year at Boston College leading the team in points for a D and leading all skaters in +/-. I think he is probably better than a 4th rounder at this point, but at best 25% to make it to the NHL.
Viktor Persson--went in the 7th and hasn't done anything to suggest he should have gone higher, likely stays in Sweden for his career.
Axel Kumlin--didn't get drafted. Playing at Miami of Ohio. Like Persson hasn't shown any development that suggests he will ever play in NHL.

2021--Overall Grade = C

Aidan Hreschuk--drafted by the Canes in the 3rd and traded to Columbus. Playing with Powell at BC, hasn't shown much offense in college.
Guillaume Richard--a Columbus prospect (like Hreschuk now) playing at Providence. Had a nice freshman season but didn't progress as a sophomore.
Ryan Ufko--playing with Scott Morrow at UMass. Almost as productive and was top-scoring D for the USA at the most recent U20. One of stars of this group so far.
Kalle Ervasti--Still one of my favorites. Played the entire season in Liiga as a 19-year-old this past season and was on Finland's U20 team getting 3 assists in 4 games.
Topias Vilen--Up there with Ufko for the most impressive on this list. Played in Liiga as both 18 and 19-year-old. Given the bigger names (Hughes and Nemec) in the NJ D pipeline, Vilen is still a bit of a long-shot, but he is definitely out-performing his draft position.
Vladislav Lukashevich--While Lukashevich went in the 4th to Florida, he really hasn't shown much since being drafted.
Jake Martin--not drafted. Going to Quinnipiac, maybe he will be one of their late-developing success stories.
Jacob Guevin--Not drafted. Had a decent year at Nebraska-Omaha.

I wrote this at the time: I am not confident in the raw scores this year because of the varying number of games--you will notice the USHL is probably over-represented because the league played most of the season. Three players who were creeping up were Tyson Hinds, Ethan Samson, and Tyson Galloway.


2022--Overall Grade A

Jake Furlong--One of the better defenders in the Q. Really good against the puck and solid, if unspectacular, in the offensive zone.
Adam Engstrom--Probably just behind Faber as the model's best result. Played his D+1 season in the SHL and was the highest scoring D under 20 and scored almost as well as fellow 2022 draftees Marco Kasper and Filip Bystedt. Ironically, most pre-draft reports suggested he was a defense-first prospect.
Tomas Hamara--had a so-so year on a team that really struggled, so the jury is out.
Frederic Brunet--much like Engstrom he looks to be a steal as a 5th round pick. Second among D for points in the Q, he also added two assists in one AHL appearance.


I am pretty sure moving forward I will limit the list to 4-5 prospects. Overall, I am satisfied that it improves on how prospects are valued.

I watched a few Umass games and Ufko outplayed Morrow in them. Morrow is the more skilled skater and has better size, but Ufko was the one really pushing the pace all game while being strong defensively. I was really impressed. He just seems to get the game better. Their top 4 play a ton and all four of them are pretty aggressive, I’d think they’d be a better team this year.

Ufko could just be the classic “peaks in college” player due to his size but he’s a hell of an NCAA player.