Prospect Info: Can the Canes find another Pesce/Slavin

[emptyNedder]

I have already mentioned that my son gave me the idea to create a model for targeting D-men after the first two rounds. The starting point was Pesce, Slavin and their similarities. I called the model PSF (Pesce/Slavin Factor).

I have refined it and tried to check it against past drafts. At this point I am fairly confident that using inter-related statistics can increase the likelihood of identifying mid-to-late round steals among defensemen. A score above 1.0 identifies a great value (Pesce was 1.32. Slavin was 1.35).

2012 is a great draft to use as a test because those players have now mostly reached their potential and an unusual number of d-men drafted in rounds 3-7 have played in the NHL. Here is what PSF looks like for 2012 rounds 3-7.

Four d-men had a PSF above 1.0: Esa Lindell, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jaccob Slavin, and Joey LaLeggia.
Four d-men had a PSF between .80 and 1.0: Daniel Gunnarsson, Christian Djoos, Mikael Wikstrand, and Joakim Ryan.

So 75% on True Positives where the score is 1.0 or higher and 50% on the second tier. (LaLeggia has had a strong AHL career and Wikstrand is a veteran in the SHL).

The model had some big misses: Colton Parayko, Colin Miller, Adam Pelech, Erik Gustafsson and Ben Hutton. It also missed some players who have contributed in the NHL like Matt Benning, Connor Carrick, Brett Kulak, and Jake Dotchin.

So the False Negative is about 17.4%.

I will go into a brief overview of how the model works and the players who it identifies this year in upcoming posts.

Click to read more...

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What do you mean by 50% on 2nd tier? Gunnarsson and Wikstrand aren't even in the NHL and Djoos and Ryan aren't really full time NHLrs yet. Or are you counting those because they are playing some in the NHL right now?

 

[emptyNedder]

What do you mean by 50% on 2nd tier? Gunnarsson and Wikstrand aren't even in the NHL and Djoos and Ryan aren't really full time NHLrs yet. Or are you counting those because they are playing some in the NHL right now?

I use 100 games as the factor being successful--I think that is reasonable for 7th round picks.

 

[Svechhammer]

I mean if we're going based on need, I'd much rather us find the next Aho than the next Slavin or Pesce.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Quick, somebody figure out the TAF.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I use 100 games as the factor being successful--I think that is reasonable for 7th round picks.

Ok, I understand. I guess when I read "finding the next Slavin or Pesce", I assumed success would mean more than being a 7th/8th defenseman who plays 40-60 games in a year.

Doesn't matter though, as long as I understand what your assumptions are.

 

[emptyNedder]

Ok, I understand. I guess when I read "finding the next Slavin or Pesce", I assumed success would mean more than being a 7th/8th defenseman who plays 40-60 games in a year.

Doesn't matter though, as long as I understand what your assumptions are.

The model does identify players like Pesce, Slavin, Gostisbehere, Will Butcher. But there are no guarantees. If I could guarantee a Pesce or Slavin with a 3rd round pick I would quit my job and sell myself to the highest NHL bidder.

I am certain that the model does significantly improve chances of drafting a d-man who at least plays in the NHL.

 

[DougieSmash]

Jesper Sellgren.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Pesce and Slavin both have siblings. I think I can find another one pretty easily without a formula.

 

[emptyNedder]

Quick, somebody figure out the TAF.

I am working on something. But it needs to be the SGF.

Though seriously I haven't found a consistent variable for finding middle to late round forwards who turn into 30 goal scorers.

 

[emptyNedder]

Jesper Sellgren.

Sellgren's PSF was 1.30.

 

[emptyNedder]

I won't provide the entire calculation (unless one of you can convince me you are Eric Tulsky), but here are the basics.

There are some statistics available for most prospects: points (I don't weight goals more than assists), plus/minus, and penalty minutes. Each is a proxy in the model. I understand that none are perfect proxies, but when weighted and combined they do a reasonable job of identifying players with upside.

Points indicate overall skill for a d-man. My presumption is that for a d-man to score on a consistent basis it takes some combination of vision, skating, anticipation, hockey IQ.
Plus/minus (I know this is a "junk" stat) indicates a player who isn't a liability when on the ice--I consider it more indicative of d-man play than forward play. I weight it based on comparison to teammates' plus/minus.
PIM is the secret sauce. This is one of the key similarities for Pesce and Slavin. They don't take penalties because they aren't out of position. PIM is especially meaningful in relation to the other variables--basically a player contributing points and/or helping his team win at even strength is valuable and that value is increased if he is positionally sound and not putting his team on the penalty kill.

Finally I balance for the player's league during his draft year. There is some impressive research that shows that 17-year-olds playing with men (SHL, Liiga) have production that translates much more than players in juniors.

 

[HisIceness]

I mean if we're going based on need, I'd much rather us find the next Aho than the next Slavin or Pesce.

Pretty much. We need forward talent and more of it.

I mean, I wouldn't be upset if we found the next Pesce/Slavin either as those guys have been gems for us but forward depth is more of a need going forward. Hell for all we know Jake Bean or someone like Luke Martin could be the next Pesce/Slavin.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Seems everyone is pretty high on Sellgren. He is more unlikely than Slavin as he was a 6th rounder.

 

[Roboturner913]

I mean, Luke Martin is coming up through the same developmental system as Slavin and Pesce. If you're talking about a d-zone standout who can move the puck a little bit, skate well and play consistently smart, he would be the guy I'd bet on.

Pesce and Slavin both have siblings. I think I can find another one pretty easily without a formula.

Brad would sure bring the enthusiasm (and, I'm assuming, the keg)

Isn't Josiah a forward?

 

[A Star is Burns]

I mean, Luke Martin is coming up through the same developmental system as Slavin and Pesce. If you're talking about a d-zone standout who can move the puck a little bit, skate well and play consistently smart, he would be the guy I'd bet on.



Brad would sure bring the enthusiasm (and, I'm assuming, the keg)

Isn't Josiah a forward?

Details man. Details. I found another Slavin and Pesce. My work here is done.

 

[Canes]

I mean, Luke Martin is coming up through the same developmental system as Slavin and Pesce. If you're talking about a d-zone standout who can move the puck a little bit, skate well and play consistently smart, he would be the guy I'd bet on.



Brad would sure bring the enthusiasm (and, I'm assuming, the keg)

Isn't Josiah a forward?

Let's hope Martin signs first. Unfortunately I think it's 50/50 he goes the UFA route since he still hasn't signed yet.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I found another Pesce.

His name is Bradlee.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Let's hope Martin signs first. Unfortunately I think it's 50/50 he goes the UFA route since he still hasn't signed yet.

I’m not convinced the Canes would be that upset. Guy seems like a bit of an underwhelming prospect to me, granted my knowledge on prospects is minimal so would look to someone who knows more about him to weight in. Slavin and Pesce showed growth in their games season over season after being drafted. Has Martin showed much growth in his game?

 

[vorbis]

I found another Pesce.

His name is Bradlee.

my favorite part of this whole thing, which I have talked about several times before, is Bradlee "so thizzed right now" Pesce saying his brother had a "nice assist with Williams in the 1st period"

that was the game where Pesce threw the puck at the net, it NAILED WILLIAMS IN THE FACE, and deflected into the goal. simply amazing.

 

[Canes]

I’m not convinced the Canes would be that upset. Guy seems like a bit of an underwhelming prospect to me, granted my knowledge on prospects is minimal so would look to someone who knows more about him to weight in. Slavin and Pesce showed growth in their games season over season after being drafted. Has Martin showed much growth in his game?

I didn't get to watch him this year other than the Michigan-Notre Dame outdoor game so I don't really know. My viewings of him when he was freshman/sophomore I thought he showed NHL potential. As for his stats, Michigan isn't really a powerhouse anymore and besides last year have been quite mediocre since Martin arrived so I'm not too surprised a stay at home guy like him hasn't put up a lot of points. He reminds me a lot of TvR. He wouldn't be devastating to lose (even Fox wasn't devastating to lose and he is a much more hyped prospect) as we have lots of depth on defense for now, but it would still suck to lose a 2nd round pick that still has potential for nothing.

 

[NotOpie]

I’m not convinced the Canes would be that upset. Guy seems like a bit of an underwhelming prospect to me, granted my knowledge on prospects is minimal so would look to someone who knows more about him to weight in. Slavin and Pesce showed growth in their games season over season after being drafted. Has Martin showed much growth in his game?

I'll have to see if I can find the links, but I believe that Martin was a healthy scratch late in the season a few times for Michigan.

That said, I also heard/read that Michigan has become something of a player development graveyard. Not sure what that means, but I would think if Vellucci and Co. think Martin has potential, then the team would listen to that. Regardless with the pipeline such as it is, while I'd hate to lose the results of a 2nd round pick, we're not exactly bereft because of it.

 

[emptyNedder]

Regardless with the pipeline such as it is, while I'd hate to lose the results of a 2nd round pick, we're not exactly bereft because of it.

The pipeline doesn't have any right-shot D-men after McKeown.
For left shots there are Fleury, Bean, and Sellgren (who might be a 6th-round gem). My guess is the Canes draft 2 or 3 right-shot D this draft.

 

[emptyNedder]

This is the first in a few posts featuring defense prospects who my model identifies as mid-to-late round steals.

Given that the Canes are drafting at the end of each round, the first two d-men would likely need to be drafted with the Canes pick at 59/60.

Simon Lundmark is a right-shot Swedish defender. His PSF is 1.23. He is ranked 21st among European skaters by NHL Central Scouting. Lundmark has decent size (6'2", 201) and from my viewings was able to hold his own in the SHL battling for the puck along the boards.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/rd-simon-lundmark

Zachary Jones fits the description of the evolving d-man in the NHL: smaller (5'10, 174) and dangerous with the puck in the offensive zone. He scored 52 points in 56 USHL games, added 5 more in 6 playoff games, and tied for the d-man lead with 4 points in 6 games for the gold medal winning USA team in the WJAC-19. Jones PSF is 1.15. He is excellent at controlling the puck entering the zone and quarterbacking a power play. He is ranked 70th by NHL Central Scouting for North American skaters.

 

[emptyNedder]

The defenseman who my model gives the highest score (1.82) is Ryan Siedem. He is a right-shot with good size (6'2, 191). While his Central Scouting ranking (116th among North American skaters) indicates that he should go in the 5th or 6th round, I have seen his name in several mock drafts in the 4th round. Given his high PSF, he makes sense for the Canes at the end of the 3rd. As you can see if you follow the link, another amateur "scout" mentions Slavin (without ever having heard of PSF).

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/d-ryan-siedem