Where are you getting that number? Natural stat trick shows Lucic starting 44% of his shifts in the Ozone. I'd be curious to know how many of those are d-zone draws after icings.
Can Lucic bounce back?
- Thread starter Soul8
- Start date
- Status
Where are you getting that number? Natural stat trick shows Lucic starting 44% of his shifts in the Ozone. I'd be curious to know how many of those are d-zone draws after icings.
It's not about making a determination about what the future holds, it's assessing what's already happened. And if there's an improvement in Lucic's game to be found, it has yet to actually manifest itself in results.
CantHaveTkachev
Legends
nice strawman
Lucic has been better than last year and IMO the best player on his line thus far, despite what the numbers say
if we simply looked at "numbers"...we'd get Chayka's awesome Coyotes team
oobga
Tier 2 Fan
- Aug 1, 2003
- 23,415
- 18,582
Meant Benning with the 2nd line:
http://naturalstattrick.com/playerr...&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8476988
25% oz starts with Drai.
Drai overall is 37.50%. Not sure about icings though. Don't really recall the 2nd line going wild with icings.
CantHaveTkachev
Legends
he looks faster, getting to loose pucks more....his puck handling is still off but he's making plays
ya, that's not my argument..that's stating the obvious
ThePhoenixx
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2005
- 9,305
- 5,797
Don't bother people.
Someone didn't get their coffee this morning and is looking for a fight.
End of story.
Someone didn't get their coffee this morning and is looking for a fight.
End of story.
pabst blue ribbon
🇺🇦🤝🇵🇱
The Coyotes have been a bottom 5 team in the league analytically the past couple of seasons and gave guys like Zac Rinaldo career highs in ice time, they aren't as advanced stats inclined as they are made out to be
He does have more jump in his step, I'll give him that, but in terms of generating actual scoring chances ... he's still fairly mediocre.
3rd line player, 35-40 points is what I see for him. He and Draisaitl cannot play together, it's a disaster and was before this season started. Prior to this season the stats showed the Oilers got outscored a horrific 3-7 with the two of them together. This season the team is getting slaughtered again with the two of them together.
They can't be played together. Todd needs to accept that and move on.
Reider/Caggiula Draisaitl Puljujarvi
Lucic Strome Yamamoto/Caggiula
Should be lines 2/3.
3rd line player, 35-40 points is what I see for him. He and Draisaitl cannot play together, it's a disaster and was before this season started. Prior to this season the stats showed the Oilers got outscored a horrific 3-7 with the two of them together. This season the team is getting slaughtered again with the two of them together.
They can't be played together. Todd needs to accept that and move on.
Reider/Caggiula Draisaitl Puljujarvi
Lucic Strome Yamamoto/Caggiula
Should be lines 2/3.
CantHaveTkachev
Legends
which is odd cause John Chayka was hired for that specific reason
it's almost as if analytics don't tell the whole story
Not every advanced stat is the be all, end all, but if you're getting outscored as a combination to the tune of like 3-7 ... that's horrible and that's not some obscure, weird stat.
It means what combination of players you are, you suck together. The team gets killed.
Lucic can't be played in the top six here if McDavid and Draisaitl are going to be your centers. Todd and Peter need to make their peace with that.
Play him on the 3rd line and let the GM own up to his blown gambles, but you can't keep forcing him with Draisaitl out of pride.
It means what combination of players you are, you suck together. The team gets killed.
Lucic can't be played in the top six here if McDavid and Draisaitl are going to be your centers. Todd and Peter need to make their peace with that.
Play him on the 3rd line and let the GM own up to his blown gambles, but you can't keep forcing him with Draisaitl out of pride.
Lucic should be on the third line, playing like he did last night. Bang some bodies, cycle the puck, rip some one timers when you get the chance. That's where he'll excel. If accepts that role, I think he can still be an effective player.
Yeah he's had I believe 1 shot on goal after game one and zero the last two games. That's kind of concerning. Pretty much zero scoring chances.
I like that he's skating harder and he hits, but yeah. Offensively he's not generating much the last 3 games. 1 shot total in 3 games for a forward is probably lowest on the team.
I like that he's skating harder and he hits, but yeah. Offensively he's not generating much the last 3 games. 1 shot total in 3 games for a forward is probably lowest on the team.
It's pretty clear he can't be played on the top 2 lines, but on the 3rd line this organization is probably going to also have to be realistic and accept production more in the 30-35 ish point range most likely.
Some people (the advanced stats crowd mainly) have this notion that Lucic sucks no matter what he does unless the fancy stats are favorable so it's not really worth arguing over yet they give Benning a pardon who has been poor by all metrics but I digress.
What's obvious is that Lucic is more engaged thus far, skating better, more consistently physical and is managing the puck a bit better. Not to say that he's been great and he's been a bit of a drag on that line as is expected but he has definitely been improved over the corpse of Lucic that he was last season.
If you accept Lucic for what he is then you'll be satisfied with his play. He's going to make some mistakes, he's going to flub passes and make some poor defensive reads from time to time but he can still be an effective player by mitigating those mistakes and being tough to play against which he has been thus far this season.
Ideally, he plays a lesser 3rd line role against softer matchups going forward where his defensive deficiencies are less glaring and he can be more fresh with less ice time. I quite liked that 3rd line in the small sample size of the 3rd period last night. I'd like to see more of it going forward.
What's obvious is that Lucic is more engaged thus far, skating better, more consistently physical and is managing the puck a bit better. Not to say that he's been great and he's been a bit of a drag on that line as is expected but he has definitely been improved over the corpse of Lucic that he was last season.
If you accept Lucic for what he is then you'll be satisfied with his play. He's going to make some mistakes, he's going to flub passes and make some poor defensive reads from time to time but he can still be an effective player by mitigating those mistakes and being tough to play against which he has been thus far this season.
Ideally, he plays a lesser 3rd line role against softer matchups going forward where his defensive deficiencies are less glaring and he can be more fresh with less ice time. I quite liked that 3rd line in the small sample size of the 3rd period last night. I'd like to see more of it going forward.
Last edited:
That's fine but his supporters probably also have to accept on the 3rd line he's probably more of a 35-ish point player. It's clear he and Draisaitl can't be played together though.
Ok, what's the problem with that?
Supporters? What supporters? All I see is vitriol spewed towards the guy even when he plays better.
I'm sure that plenty of the posters in this thread who are praising his early season play are praising him because he's earned some praise, not because they are Lucic fanboys.
With that said, I expect him to stay on the 2nd line for a while. As long as Puljujarvi is on the RW, I think it could work with him on 2nd line. If he's the primary puck supporter on that line, it's a problem.
One other thing I'd like to see is him handling the puck less, a lot less, on the PP. He needs to park his rear in front of the goalie and stay there.
Zero shots in the last two games. On the ice for just seven Oilers shots in the last three games versus 28 against. I have no idea what people are seeing with this guy right now.
He has 2 shots on net the entire season which is third lowest for Oiler forwards. Only Khaira and Kassian are lower and Kassian has been scratched for 2/4 games.
Ultimately you're not really probably likely to score a lot when you can't get the puck on net.
Ultimately you're not really probably likely to score a lot when you can't get the puck on net.
The bar is pretty low, he just has to skate hard and hit on the forecheck and that's impressive I guess. I'll give him credit for that, but offensively he looks fairly anemic after game 1.
It's just a terrible fit for him here, we never should have signed him. He can't play with McDavid or Draisaitl.
oobga
Tier 2 Fan
- Aug 1, 2003
- 23,415
- 18,582
I think Chayka actually said last year that character and chemistry are just as important, and it's something he has learned on the job.
Analytics only take you so far, they tell you the past. No analytic is gonna tell you what is gonna happen with a Saad or Pouliot once they get their pay day. Both guys, analytics wonders. Big payday comes, they don't give a crap anymore.
Think you find most teams that brag about analytics and get all kinds of analytics love are teams that are simply good, and have lots of good players thanks to some draft lottery luck and general drafting fortunes. Then the good players go past their primes, and you don't hear much about them anymore. Chicago was for so long the beacon of the value of analytics.
I think analytics is most useful today for coaching. Finding out combinations that work good together. try to find shortcommings in strategies based on the kind of shot volumes, shot locations you're getting for and against. So much proprietary data none of us get to see.
- Status
