Post-Game Talk: Calgary at Chicago (10/24/2016)

[Easton Modano Curve]

Didn't the Kings literally just miss the playoffs a couple of years ago because they sucked in the shootout?

Historically (word of the night) that was anomoly. But it happened.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Of course it had to be Versteeg...

But justice was served..we only played well in the 3rd and OT periods..Lost the first 2 periods by a wide margin of effort..Put it this way...tge team that won the majority of shifts and tge specialty teams rightfully got the 2 points..so we will read about Point Taken from the marketing hype dept....but hockey ops will not be pleased about tge overall game.

BTW...Toews has officially used up all his mulligans..

I wonder where the talent went ...cause through 7 games #19 has given a no star event !!!

Listening to the radio call - the one positive - Toews was 70% at the dot.

The team, in total was 45% at the dot. Think about that. I'm not smart enough to do the math, but the official math statement means that every other face off taker was absolutely abysmal, including Schmaltz at 22% and Anismov a terrible 21%. And he's a whopping 38% for the season!

 

[JaegerDice]

Correct. But it's meaningless since you can't quantify it using advanced stats, so it'll "just even out"

Actually you can quantify it. Teams very reliably regress to 50% W/L in the shootout every season. Like clockwork.

There are outliers, certainly.

Pray tell, what is the Blackhawks record in the SO thus far? Could it be close to 50%?

 

[Putt Pirate]

Kitchen.....don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya.

Please be gone soon.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Correct. But it's meaningless since you can't quantify it using advanced stats, so it'll "just even out"

"I don't understand advanced stats or basic statistical characteristics therefore they're stupid"

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Didn't the Kings literally just miss the playoffs a couple of years ago because they sucked in the shootout?

Yes. They missed the playoffs by two points. They went 2-8 in the shootout.

So, yeah, I'm pretty sure they'd say that SO points matter.

But even before it gets to SO, the Hawks have had 3 PP opportunities on OT in the last two games. Did not capitalize and in tonite's instance, left that point on the ice as a result.

If you get a PP in OT, the game shouldn't go to SO. The Hawks have had 3 in two games.

 

[Easton Modano Curve]

Yes. They missed the playoffs by two points. They went 2-8 in the shootout.

So, yeah, I'm pretty sure they'd say that SO points matter.

But even before it gets to SO, the Hawks have had 3 PP opportunities on OT in the last two games. Did not capitalize and in tonite's instance, left that point on the ice as a result.

If you get a PP in OT, the game shouldn't go to SO. The Hawks have had 3 in two games.

You still don't get what he means regarding the shoot out points...

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Actually you can quantify it. Teams very reliably regress to 50% W/L in the shootout every season. Like clockwork.

There are outliers, certainly.

Pray tell, what is the Blackhawks record in the SO thus far? Could it be close to 50%?

The 3:3 format has existed for one season. That changes the dynamics of it all and renders most of the stats prior to last season meaningless.

You can candy coat it all you want. The Hawks left a point on the ice in OT on Saturday with two failed PP. They were fortunate to pick up that point in the SO. They left another point on the ice with a failed PP tonite in FO. They didn't pick up that point in the SO.

You say 50/50. I say lost point.

 

[TLEH]

"I don't understand advanced stats or basic statistical characteristics therefore they're stupid"

Advanced stats in general are very easy to understand and how on ice play correlates to Corsi, Fenwick, etc is easy to understand. They have value. S/o and OT does matter because it's points. If you are bad at shootouts you might lose 6 or 7 points over the course of a season. That matters.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Point being is that if the Hawks miss the playoffs, not getting enough wins in the shootout isn't going to be a significant reason. Things like a horrendous PK and/or lack of scoring depth will be the real reasons.

 

[JaegerDice]

Point being is that if the Hawks miss the playoffs, not getting enough wins in the shootout isn't going to be a significant reason. Things like a horrendous PK and/or lack of scoring depth will be the real reasons.

This.

Anyway, I'm out for the night.

I'm still pretty comfortable with this team at the moment. They've slaughtered every team they've faced in possession except for the Blues on opening night when the kids looked completely overwhelmed. Special teams are fixable. Toews and Seabrook both had their worst game of the season thus far, and the Blackhawks still came out with a point. The Kruger line has become mana from heaven, as they're taking dungeon starts and not only flipping the ice, but dominating it to the tune of being our second best possession line thus far this season. That is crazy. Anisimov is doing his 2C thing, Panik is fitting in well even if he won't be Mike Bossy reincarnate forever, Motte is working through growing pains. You get Desi back in and (ideally), Campbell playing on his correct side, this team is looking good.

Hopefully I awake to news of Kitchen's firing and swirling rumors of Q being on the hot seat if the special teams don't turn around.

G'night all

 

[Backyard Hockey]

You still don't get what he means regarding the shoot out points...

Yes I do.

Everything changed with 3:3

But - just a look at the last 3 seasons.

2015-16 Hawks - 1 SO win, 2 losses

2014-15 Hawks - 9 SO wins, 3 losses

2013-14 Hawks - 6 S0 wins, 8 losses

I wasn't a math major, but is that 50% and 'evens out'?

In 2014-15, the Hawks gained 6 points via the SO differential. They finished the season with 102 points. Minn with 100, Winn with 99. In the case of Minn, that differential meant home ice vs. Minn in the second round.

OT and SO points matter.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Actually you can quantify it. Teams very reliably regress to 50% W/L in the shootout every season. Like clockwork.

There are outliers, certainly.

Pray tell, what is the Blackhawks record in the SO thus far? Could it be close to 50%?

You aren't correct. See my other post specific to the Hawks and the last three season.

Regardless, that's all changed with 3:3. Not capitalizing on PP opportunities in 3:3 OT means lost points.

Points matter.

 

[JaegerDice]

You aren't correct. See my other post specific to the Hawks and the last three season.

Regardless, that's all changed with 3:3. Not capitalizing on PP opportunities in 3:3 OT means lost points.

Points matter.

You've selected a sample of 3 out 90 (3 seasons x 30 teams) possible teams.

Not to mention only one of those 3 out of 90 was far off 50/50, and the only impact you measured was home ice against an opponent we played an equal number of home and away games against (2 each), and won all of them, rendering home ice essentially irrelevant in the series.

So the impact was......nothing?

 

[featherhawk]

The CBA does not allow players to get called up and down from the CHLs.

right, I did know that but I thought he was in Rockford....that sucks...


time to give MacNiel a shot

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Advanced stats in general are very easy to understand and how on ice play correlates to Corsi, Fenwick, etc is easy to understand. They have value. S/o and OT does matter because it's points. If you are bad at shootouts you might lose 6 or 7 points over the course of a season. That matters.

It did for LA in 2014. Going 2-8 and they lost the playoffs by losing 6 points.

It did for the Hawks in 2015. Going 9-3 meant gaining 6 additional points and having home ice against Minnesota in the second round and more importantly, avoiding STL in the first round. The outcome of that season might have been quite different if they had to play a big heavy team like STL in the first and then ANA in the WCF.

Points matter.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Advanced stats in general are very easy to understand and how on ice play correlates to Corsi, Fenwick, etc is easy to understand. They have value. S/o and OT does matter because it's points. If you are bad at shootouts you might lose 6 or 7 points over the course of a season. That matters.

Hawks Shootout Standings Year by Year:

Current: 1-1
2015/16: 1-2 Finished 3rd in the Division
2014/15: 9-3 Finished 3rd in the Division
2013/14: 6-8 Finished 3rd in the Division
2012/13: 6-5 Finished 1st in the Division
2011/12: 7-7 Finished 4th in the Division
2010/11: 6-5 Finished 4th in the Division
2009/10: 9-6 Finished 1st in the Division
2008/09: 4-7 Finished 2nd in the Division

Quick, lazy, math gives me a count of 49W and 44L, roughly a 53% win rate over 8 season + 2 games from this season sample size. Sounds awfully similar to what JD said right?

There's absolutely no correlation to anything you or Backyard Hockey is *****ing about.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

You've selected a sample of 3 out 90 (3 seasons x 30 teams) possible teams.

Not to mention only one of those 3 out of 90 was far off 50/50, and the only impact you measured was home ice against an opponent we played an equal number of home and away games against (2 each), and won all of them, rendering home ice essentially irrelevant in the series.

So the impact was......nothing?

I just looked at the last three seasons. I'm not looking at 90 seasons.

See my other post. The Hawks gained 6 extra points on the SO differential in the cup winning 2014-15 season. Those points meant NOT playing STL in the first round.

 

[JaegerDice]

One final note, I'm far less worried about the PP than the PK.

Many teams have gone on deep playoff runs with a weak, even bottom 3rd of the league, PK. Including the Blackhawks.

Very few have gone very far without a strong PK.

The PK needs to be addressed. The PP is far less of a priority IMO, so long as the team continues to dominate as it has 5v5.

 

[Easton Modano Curve]

Yes I do.

Everything changed with 3:3

But - just a look at the last 3 seasons.

2015-16 Hawks - 1 SO win, 2 losses

2014-15 Hawks - 9 SO wins, 3 losses

2013-14 Hawks - 6 S0 wins, 8 losses

I wasn't a math major, but is that 50% and 'evens out'?

In 2014-15, the Hawks gained 6 points via the SO differential. They finished the season with 102 points. Minn with 100, Winn with 99. In the case of Minn, that differential meant home ice vs. Minn in the second round.

OT and SO points matter.

That wasn't his argument. His argument was that goal differential over 82 games is historically a pretty good predictor of the standings. OT/SO points count of course, but the sample size is smaller and the effect isn't as great. Count up 30 teams for 3 seasons and do the math. You can find any point on the bell curve cherry picking seasons.

Not that you care...but the Hawks did have a better goal differential than Minny that year.

 

[Backyard Hockey]

Hawks Shootout Standings Year by Year:

Current: 1-1
2015/16: 1-2 Finished 3rd in the Division
2014/15: 9-3 Finished 3rd in the Division
2013/14: 6-8 Finished 3rd in the Division
2012/13: 6-5 Finished 1st in the Division
2011/12: 7-7 Finished 4th in the Division
2010/11: 6-5 Finished 4th in the Division
2009/10: 9-6 Finished 1st in the Division
2008/09: 4-7 Finished 2nd in the Division

There's absolutely no correlation to anything you or Backyard Hockey is *****ing about.

Let me get this straight and let's use 14/15 as an example - having 6 EXTRA points as a result of SO differential has no correlation?

The Hawks finished 2 points ahead of a red hot MN team. If they didn't they would have finished 4th. That would have meant a first round matchup against STL and not having home ice in any of the three playoff series prior to the Cup Finals.

Regardless, it's not as relevant any more since the 3:3 change.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Am I the only one who isn't that concerned about this start? They are fine 5-on-5, and that is what's important to me at this point in time. I know it's not ideal, but I'm not worried yet.

 

[JaegerDice]

Am I the only one who isn't that concerned about this start? They are fine 5-on-5, and that is what's important to me at this point in time. I know it's not ideal, but I'm not worried yet.

I'm with you.

Considering the number of new faces playing important roles, I'm rather thrilled with how well they've been playing 5v5.

 

[JustABlackhawksFan]

But seriously, what is up with Toews?

He just doesn't even LOOK good out there. Gets muscled off the puck much easier than he used to and loses board battles quite frequently as well.

Corsi, possession, blah blah, I know, but at some point he needs to start actually producing. Not to go all HF50, but 0 goals and 2 assists in 7 games really isn't acceptable production for a 10.5 million dollar player.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Am I the only one who isn't that concerned about this start? They are fine 5-on-5, and that is what's important to me at this point in time. I know it's not ideal, but I'm not worried yet.

Same here, but that being said the garbage PK is damn annoying.

Don't care where we end up 1-30 on the PK across the season, but hopefully the final month going into the postseason we're closer to the top than the bottom.