C Will Smith - Boston College, NCAA (2023, 4th, SJS)

[The Crypto Guy]

Gauthier and Nazar, who center separate lines, had 4+ minutes more than Smith, who centers another separate line. The fact that I can’t tell what line you mean by “top line” should make it evident that “the three other lines” did not get similar ice time, as you claim.

You realize there is something called PP and PK time right?

The 2nd-3rd-4th lines play almost the same ES time give or take a minute or two.

You should go look at how many SHIFTS the forwards take. They are all pretty even, only difference is the PP and PK players stay out for a lot longer so it increases the players time on ice.

 

[fasterthanlight]

So, 4G 5A in 7GP playing 3c minutes at WJC. Also had tournament second-best faceoff win percentage at 65%.

 

[William H Bonney]

So, 4G 5A in 7GP playing 3c minutes at WJC. Also had tournament second-best faceoff win percentage at 65%.

He had an excellent tournament. Still has some warts to iron out but he's the real deal talent wise.

 

[sigx15]

He had an excellent tournament. Still has some warts to iron out but he's the real deal talent wise.

He’s the prototypical kid who has loads of skill but needs some time to develop. He’s got another 5-10lbs of muscle he can put on in college and improve his conditioning, he’ll be right on track if he does

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

 

[coooldude]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

On the Sharks boards, it's less about love/hate and more of one of three things:
1. He's a good prospect, but he's not Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli and people will always compare him to them (I'm guilty of this)
2. Some are mad we picked him instead of Michkov, so it's not that they hate Smith, just that they're bitter about the pick and it makes it harder for them (seemingly) to see positives.
3. Some people just love to be right when someone fails, and/or hate when they see a prospect being over-hyped. Smith is not likely an elite 1C, so if some fans hope for that, others feel the need to counterbalance that.

There also seems to be a less strong dynamic where WSH or NYR fans see their prospects as the line drivers, and take offense when someone says one of the other guys on that line are the line drivers. The same dynamic happens for SJS fans when someone says Smith is a passenger or Leonard is the real prospect. It doesn't have to be that way, but that is an emerging dynamic.

 

[sigx15]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

There are always some prospects who for some reason become lightning rods on this board. Usually it's not the guys who are utterly dominating after the draft or are totally underperforming. It's usually guys like Smith who look good, are putting up good numbers but have some deficiencies and they get debated to death until they end up in the NHL

 

[majormajor]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

You're the same poster who goes on Fantilli's thread to moan about the Jackets making a bad choice taking Fantilli over Michkov. This is the same Fantilli who has 14 pts since the start of December. In the NHL.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

Smith is a fine prospect and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him being a point per game center in the NHL. But the scouting reports about his disinterest in defensive play and lack of motor are largely correct. If he ends up an 80 pt center with the defensive play of 2022 Mark Scheifele, it's not really what San Jose needs. He has a chance to be better than that but if I had to guess, that's where he'll end up.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

SJ should have tried to move up and get Perreault. There's something special in that line and at least getting a couple of them would have been great. And I say that liking a lot Musty

 

[LesCanadiens]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

All we're all doing is trying to predict if and how his game will translate to the NHL. I'm sure we've all predicted and will continue to predict both wrongly and rightly. Having made that disclosure, lol:

I can't see his game translating to the NHL. Skilled and decent IQ, that seems a given. But very slow skater, seems lazy at times. Smallish for a center. And doesn't seem to have a high compete/intensity level. The fire, per se. And I feel that is the missing element he would need to overcome the physical shortcomings and lack of speed. But hey, I could be dead-wrong. For example, Zach Benson is also a small center with high skill and IQ who lacks speed. But no one is more tenacious or works as hard in all 3 zones and has that all-out, do anything to win drive.

 

[coooldude]

All we're all doing is trying to predict if and how his game will translate to the NHL. I'm sure we've all predicted and will continue to predict both wrongly and rightly. Having made that disclosure, lol:

I can't see his game translating to the NHL. Skilled and decent IQ, that seems a given. But very slow skater, seems lazy at times. Smallish for a center. And doesn't seem to have a high compete/intensity level. The fire, per se. And I feel that is the missing element he would need to overcome the physical shortcomings and lack of speed. But hey, I could be dead-wrong. For example, Zach Benson is also a small center with high skill and IQ who lacks speed. But no one is more tenacious or works as hard in all 3 zones and has that all-out, do anything to win drive.

I'm not going to argue that Smith's game is going to translate - jury still out for me. But these reasons don't square.

Size: He's 18 years old and can't yet grow a beard. Very likely he has a little height left to grow and definitely has weight to add. He's 6'0" where average centers are just under 6'1". He's probably 185, so skinny, but again he will be gaining muscle until he's 22-23 at least. Size isn't the reason.

Speed: he has quick bursts and he has shown decent top end speed even as recently as WJC. issue is it's inconsistent. That's either a style problem (too passive and waiting for the play to develop, or not enough compete/intensity), an endurance problem (often looks clearly slower at mid/end of shift), or a burst problem (not high end enough fast twitch).

All of those can improve, but how much will they improve? It's simplistic to say he's "a slow skater" when he has shown anything but, but only at times.

On compete, he certainly comes across in all interviews as hyper competitive, but his style on the ice is less "dog on a bone" like Leonard and more "sit back like the hawk and wait." That may need to change or he may just need to be slightly more tenacious at times.

Is he going to be able to adapt his style and learn quickly? There's still a lot of time. But the variability of performance is more concerning to me than "size or speed."

 

[LesCanadiens]

I'm not going to argue that Smith's game is going to translate - jury still out for me. But these reasons don't square.

Size: He's 18 years old and can't yet grow a beard. Very likely he has a little height left to grow and definitely has weight to add. He's 6'0" where average centers are just under 6'1". He's probably 185, so skinny, but again he will be gaining muscle until he's 22-23 at least. Size isn't the reason.

Speed: he has quick bursts and he has shown decent top end speed even as recently as WJC. issue is it's inconsistent. That's either a style problem (too passive and waiting for the play to develop, or not enough compete/intensity), an endurance problem (often looks clearly slower at mid/end of shift), or a burst problem (not high end enough fast twitch).

All of those can improve, but how much will they improve? It's simplistic to say he's "a slow skater" when he has shown anything but, but only at times.

On compete, he certainly comes across in all interviews as hyper competitive, but his style on the ice is less "dog on a bone" like Leonard and more "sit back like the hawk and wait." That may need to change or he may just need to be slightly more tenacious at times.

Is he going to be able to adapt his style and learn quickly? There's still a lot of time. But the variability of performance is more concerning to me than "size or speed."

I respect your take. You make a very good counter-argument. Mine was based on a sum of parts outcome. And of course every prospect can improve on certain aspects. IQ helps cover some ground that speed can't, and maybe some further work with a skating coach may help him with his speed and motor.

I guess if I were to distill my things down to one main reason, it would be intensity and drive. And I understand that it is subjective. Wouldn't be the first time an uber-talented prospect didn't pan out due to this.

Maybe my perception is incorrect. I guess we'll better tell once he gets some NHL starts. Seems like a good kid. So don't wish any bad for him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I respect your take. You make a very good counter-argument. Mine was based on a sum of parts outcome. And of course every prospect can improve on certain aspects. IQ helps cover some ground that speed can't, and maybe some further work with a skating coach may help him with his speed and motor.

I guess if I were to distill my things down to one main reason, it would be intensity and drive. And I understand that it is subjective. Wouldn't be the first time an uber-talented prospect didn't pan out due to this.

Maybe my perception is incorrect. I guess we'll better tell once he gets some NHL starts. Seems like a good kid. So don't wish any bad for him.

I completely disagree that Smith is disinterested, I think it’s a physical issue. As the poster you quoted mentioned, Smith’s motor really seems to run out at the end of shifts, and he seems to lack the leg strength that allows for the final push to close on opposing forwards, which leads to the perception that he is disinterested defensively. His lack of strength is the only thing I worry about with him.

I also have no problem with his lesser physical engagement compared to someone like Leonard, for example. Leonard gets absolutely destroyed physically on a consistent basis, and I have some concerns about his long-term durability if he continues his hyper-aggressive physical style—he’s the same height as “undersized” Will Smith.

Fans like to see “fire” in their players, because it creates the perception that they’re trying harder than others. But I don’t think I should have to say that judging a player’s competitiveness visually is unbelievably stupid.

And lastly—I hope you’ll forgive me for saying—it’s hard for me to take Habs fans’ critiques of Smith seriously. You all wanted Smith desperately before the draft, but now the Habs board is convinced that Smith will bust, etc.

 

[coooldude]

Leonard gets absolutely destroyed physically on a consistent basis, and I have some concerns about his long-term durability if he continues his hyper-aggressive physical style—he’s the same height as “undersized” Will Smith.

Fans like to see “fire” in their players, because it creates the perception that they’re trying harder than others. But I don’t think I should have to say that judging a player’s competitiveness visually is unbelievably stupid.

It's a Smith thread and not Leonard, but I'm glad you mentioned it. Leonard is playing really well, but he is playing at the top of his current potential, and he's not a huge guy yet trying to play a power forward game. He got blown up a bunch in the WJC's and spent a lot of time on his ass. I actually think he's slightly shorter than Smith and not all that much heavier, but physically looks more mature (total armchair here, just looking at e.g. jawline and facial hair)... he'll have to get super ripped just to get to (as a Sharks fan) Zetterlund-levels of density and Zetts isn't ripping up the NHL as a power forward.

Probably all three of them will make the NHL and I'm guessing the story will be the same -- Leonard maybe isn't able to play his hard-ass power forward game, but he can hang... Smith maybe isn't always bringing the right intensity and sometimes seems behind the play, but has flashes of brilliance... and Perreault is very high IQ and skill but not super fast and on occasion makes bonehead turnovers. You can see all of this in their games now and it'll only be amplified in the best league in the world. How each of them responds and learns up to age 25 will determine their careers. This is why you and I and others keep saying that we need to see them all play apart to really assess their next step up.

 

[LesCanadiens]

I completely disagree that Smith is disinterested, I think it’s a physical issue. As the poster you quoted mentioned, Smith’s motor really seems to run out at the end of shifts, and he seems to lack the leg strength that allows for the final push to close on opposing forwards, which leads to the perception that he is disinterested defensively. His lack of strength is the only thing I worry about with him.

I also have no problem with his lesser physical engagement compared to someone like Leonard, for example. Leonard gets absolutely destroyed physically on a consistent basis, and I have some concerns about his long-term durability if he continues his hyper-aggressive physical style—he’s the same height as “undersized” Will Smith.

Fans like to see “fire” in their players, because it creates the perception that they’re trying harder than others. But I don’t think I should have to say that judging a player’s competitiveness visually is unbelievably stupid.

And lastly—I hope you’ll forgive me for saying—it’s hard for me to take Habs fans’ critiques of Smith seriously. You all wanted Smith desperately before the draft, but now the Habs board is convinced that Smith will bust, etc.

All good points. I agree on some of them and again, we're all just guessing at best. But I question the last one. I was never a fan of Will Smith and was praying the Habs would NOT select him. I had him around the 10 slot, and the 2 on my "wish list" were Michkov and Benson respectively.

Big fan of Quinten Musty, though...

 

[Juxtaposer]

All good points. I agree on some of them and again, we're all just guessing at best. But I question the last one. I was never a fan of Will Smith and was praying the Habs would NOT select him. I had him around the 10 slot, and the 2 on my "wish list" were Michkov and Benson respectively.

Big fan of Quinten Musty, though...

Right, and it would be silly to claim that there is absolutely nothing to worry about with Smith, he’s very far from a sure thing. I too had Smith behind Benson and Michkov (I ranked Smith #6 and Leonard #8 pre-draft, for the record) but it was obvious that Michkov wasn’t coming to the Sharks and there was no way a 5’9” winger was going 4th overall no matter how much he deserved it.

But I’m talking about the revisionist history that people are claiming they’d have taken Leonard over Smith at the draft. You can claim you would have on the internet, but it’s a different story when you have the first top-5 pick that the org has had in literally two decades. Tell me honestly you would have taken someone other than Will Smith 4th overall last June if you were in Mike Grier’s shoes as the GM of the Sharks, knowing that Michkov had no interest in the Sharks.

The thing with Leonard is that he looks great. He’s physical, tenacious, and plays a lot of one-on-one hero-puck. He’s the full package for what hooks the average hockey fan.

So why is he so consistently outscored by Smith and Perreault? Leonard got a ton of attention for the late goal he scored on a fantastic individual effort, but it was Smith and Perreault who created the goals that mattered before the game got out of hand. Memories are funny.

 

[LesCanadiens]

Right, and it would be silly to claim that there is absolutely nothing to worry about with Smith, he’s very far from a sure thing. I too had Smith behind Benson and Michkov (I ranked Smith #6 and Leonard #8 pre-draft, for the record) but it was obvious that Michkov wasn’t coming to the Sharks and there was no way a 5’9” winger was going 4th overall no matter how much he deserved it.

But I’m talking about the revisionist history that people are claiming they’d have taken Leonard over Smith at the draft. You can claim you would have on the internet, but it’s a different story when you have the first top-5 pick that the org has had in literally two decades. Tell me honestly you would have taken someone other than Will Smirh 4th overall last June if you were in Mike Grier’s shoes as the GM of the Sharks, knowing that Michkov had no interest in the Sharks.

The thing with Leonard is that he looks great. He’s physical, tenacious, and plays a lot of one-on-one hero-puck. He’s the full package for what hooks the average hockey fan.

So why is he so consistently outscored by Smith and Perreault? Leonard got a ton of attention for the late goal he scored on a fantastic individual effort, but it was Smith and Perreault who created the goals that mattered before the game got out of hand. Memories are funny.

I never said I was a fan of Leonard either . Leonard is a difficult prospect to peg, at least for me. Players like that could just as easily turn out to be no more than an excellent 3rd line winger. Smaller PF's can't often translate their game vs grown pro men. One issue with Smith, IMO, if he's not at least a competitive 2C scoring center, what is he? I didn't have either of them in my top picks. Nor did I have Reinbacher there. I had Michkov at #2 and Benson at around the Habs' pick so I was praying Smith and/or Leonard would get picked before our pick in the hopes we could snag Michkov.

 

[coooldude]

I never said I was a fan of Leonard either . Leonard is a difficult prospect to peg, at least for me. Players like that could just as easily turn out to be no more than an excellent 3rd line winger. Smaller PF's can't often translate their game vs grown pro men. One issue with Smith, IMO, if he's not at least a competitive 2C scoring center, what is he? I didn't have either of them in my top picks. Nor did I have Reinbacher there. I had Michkov at #2 and Benson at around the Habs' pick so I was praying Smith and/or Leonard would get picked before our pick in the hopes we could snag Michkov.

I think Smith could be a playmaking/scoring Winger. Everyone seems to overlook that he has a pretty dangerous shot, as evidenced by his PP effectiveness. But the hope is play-driving 2C. I personally think 1C is a stretch, unless it's on a mediocre team, and I'm hopeful (but not convinced) that 2nd line winger is an "NHL floor" before you get to the full bust possibilities, which are hopefully not likely.

 

[LesCanadiens]

I think Smith could be a playmaking/scoring Winger. Everyone seems to overlook that he has a pretty dangerous shot, as evidenced by his PP effectiveness. But the hope is play-driving 2C. I personally think 1C is a stretch, unless it's on a mediocre team, and I'm hopeful (but not convinced) that 2nd line winger is an "NHL floor" before you get to the full bust possibilities, which are hopefully not likely.

Yeah, I hear ya. And FWIW, I can't blame the Sharks for picking him where they did. He was a consensus top-5 guy. It's all up to him now. I'm bummed the Habs picked Reinbacher over Michkov, and would still reverse that pick if I had the power. But I've come to terms with Reinbacher and look at the positives. If everything goes well for Smith. I've always thought his ceiling would be near Mike Ribeiro minus the drama, lol. Which isn't a horrible outcome by any means.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

What do Sharks fans think of Smith's chances of making the 24/25 opening night lineup?

 

[Juxtaposer]

I never said I was a fan of Leonard either . Leonard is a difficult prospect to peg, at least for me. Players like that could just as easily turn out to be no more than an excellent 3rd line winger. Smaller PF's can't often translate their game vs grown pro men. One issue with Smith, IMO, if he's not at least a competitive 2C scoring center, what is he? I didn't have either of them in my top picks. Nor did I have Reinbacher there. I had Michkov at #2 and Benson at around the Habs' pick so I was praying Smith and/or Leonard would get picked before our pick in the hopes we could snag Michkov.

Ooh, then I’m quite curious what your top-10 looked like, particularly who else other than the obvious five that you had over Smith.

What do Sharks fans think of Smith's chances of making the 24/25 opening night lineup?

30/70. I think he’ll want to do one more year at BC, and I think it would be the smart decision. But it could go the other way.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

30/70. I think he’ll want to do one more year at BC, and I think it would be the smart decision. But it could go the other way.

Thanks, Jux. I know you watch these guys a ton.

For selfish reasons I'd love to see the BC-3 go for the WJC repeat.

 

[Goldenhands]

I completely disagree that Smith is disinterested, I think it’s a physical issue. As the poster you quoted mentioned, Smith’s motor really seems to run out at the end of shifts, and he seems to lack the leg strength that allows for the final push to close on opposing forwards, which leads to the perception that he is disinterested defensively. His lack of strength is the only thing I worry about with him.

I also have no problem with his lesser physical engagement compared to someone like Leonard, for example. Leonard gets absolutely destroyed physically on a consistent basis, and I have some concerns about his long-term durability if he continues his hyper-aggressive physical style—he’s the same height as “undersized” Will Smith.

Fans like to see “fire” in their players, because it creates the perception that they’re trying harder than others. But I don’t think I should have to say that judging a player’s competitiveness visually is unbelievably stupid.

And lastly—I hope you’ll forgive me for saying—it’s hard for me to take Habs fans’ critiques of Smith seriously. You all wanted Smith desperately before the draft, but now the Habs board is convinced that Smith will bust, etc.

Im a Habs fan and pointed out about the same concerns people are having way before the draft. For me Smith was closer to Perreault than the 4th OV spot, ended up ranking him around 8th OV because of his talent level and upside, but he was not a favorite of mines, liked Leonard and Brindley better.

 

[MS]

Will Smith is way too controversial. Some people absolutely hate him for some reason.

It doesn't make much sense. He's going to be a good NHL top 6 center with a real chance for first line.

He's a big talent but he's cut from the same mold as Kent Johnson and Trevor Zegras and he's going to have the same trouble sticking at C in the NHL as they've had. I'll be surprised if he's anything other than a playmaking winger.

And I wouldn't be shocked if he's the sort of playmaking winger who can put up 80-100 points at some point.

But I also wouldn't be shocked if his next 4-5 years look a lot like the struggles of Zegras and Johnson.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Im a Habs fan and pointed out about the same concerns people are having way before the draft. For me Smith was closer to Perreault than the 4th OV spot, ended up ranking him around 8th OV because of his talent level and upside, but he was not a favorite of mines, liked Leonard and Brindley better.

Still better to take the risk going for a talented center rather than a limited upside defenseman, whose scoring is way down this year, because he is a RHD.