C Sam Steel - Regina Pats, WHL (2016, 30th, ANA)

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Sam Steal is more like it

 

[Bevans]

Where would he go in this year's draft?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Honestly I love this player and he's gonna be a beauty, but Seattle kept him in check during the finals. Strangely enough I didn't notice him too much. Sure he put up 6 points in these 6 games, but I just really didn't notice him alot.

Adam Brooks being out was a huge factor.

 

[Markus078]

Adam Brooks being out was a huge factor.

This and his linemates could not convert a lot of great set ups by him.

 

[Gliff]

Not many comments for him despite being in the WHL finals. Interesting.

He is a skilled forward the Ducks drafted. We don't want to jinx it.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Honestly I love this player and he's gonna be a beauty, but Seattle kept him in check during the finals. Strangely enough I didn't notice him too much. Sure he put up 6 points in these 6 games, but I just really didn't notice him alot.

I am very curious how he will be next year when he loses a lot of his teammates. IMO he wont be near the PPG he put up this season. He played with a lot of extremely good and high point getters which allowed him to hit the point total he got

He still has some work to do before he makes it to the NHL. It will be perfect next year for him being back in the WHL without a lot of guys that were on this Regina team.

He fits the bill as another late 1st rd steel the Ducks are becoming known for. I like him too. Ducks scouting staff once again showing their worth. Great value pick.

 

[NickLidstrom]

Where would he go in this year's draft?

If he put up his draft year numbers, I'm guessing top 15? If he put this year's numbers in his draft year? Number 1 unquestionably.

 

[Markus078]

I always compare him to Barzal. And overall he did really well. His problem, Regina is a 2 line team and without Brooks all Seatle had to do was shutting down Sam. He still managed a point per game.

 

[WhatWhat]

Where would he go in this year's draft?

Mid to late first. His draft numbers werent great so thats why he "fell" a bit in hindsight.

 

[Fantomas]

Mid to late first.

He'd go top 15 easily. Possibly top 10.

 

[Vipers31]

Mid to late first. His draft numbers werent great so thats why he "fell" a bit in hindsight.

He was a late first in what was more than widely seen as a significantly better draft than this one - hard to believe his value wouldn't climb further, if you look at his competition for #5-15. Odds would say that maybe, maybe one or two guys in those ranks take the same kind of leap.

 

[WhatWhat]

He was a late first in what was more than widely seen as a significantly better draft than this one - hard to believe his value wouldn't climb further, if you look at his competition for #5-15. Odds would say that maybe, maybe one or two guys in those ranks take the same kind of leap.

Mid to late first is 15-30. So its akin to saying at worst he goes in the same spot and at best he moves up 15... 23 goals and 70 points in 72 is decent but unless you are a big body that doesnt put you in the 5-15 range.

If we are using his numbers this year then its a completely different story and he is the unquestioned number 1 pick, but with his numbers last year he doesnt jump all that far up because they werent all that special

 

[Fantomas]

Nolan Patrick is 18 and he produced at a worse rate than Steel this year.

 

[boredmale]

Nolan Patrick is 18 and he produced at a worse rate than Steel this year.

Patrick didn't play on as stacked a team as Steel though.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Nolan Patrick is 18 and he produced at a worse rate than Steel this year.

If Patrick was on this Regina team, his point total rate would be absolutely through the roof

Regina was absolutely stacked. Like one of the most skilled and highest scoring team I have ever seen in junior. That's why I feel having Steel back next year will be huge for his development cause he will be the main guy. He wont have this unbelievable team surrounding him. I am very curious as to how his point rate will be(I say point rate cause he wont be near the point total he had this season due to teammates he will lose and also will miss games cause of Ducks camp and WJC)

Love him as a prospect

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Interesting, I wonder did the Ducks get lucky with Sam Steel considering they picked Max Jones a few picks earlier at #24. I think many would have them reversed today. Could be a Perry and Getzlaf to a lesser degree a decade later. Regardless, the Ducks manufacturing picks by trades has given them a stable of fine young players that should keep them in contention for years.

 

[Fantomas]

Patrick didn't play on as stacked a team as Steel though.

Can't say I know enough to compare, but Patrick's team was pretty damn good: http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=857&year0=2016&status=stats

 

[King In The North]

Can't say I know enough to compare, but Patrick's team was pretty damn good: http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=857&year0=2016&status=stats

Evidently team scored less than Regina.

 

[Fantomas]

Evidently team scored less than Regina.

I'm not suggesting that Steel = Patrick. I am referring to an earlier post that argues that Steel would be a mid-to-late first rounder in this draft. I think he'd be among the best if he were to somehow re-enter.

His production at 18 is exceptional, regardless of how one looks at it.

 

[boredmale]

Can't say I know enough to compare, but Patrick's team was pretty damn good: http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=857&year0=2016&status=stats

I won't lie I am no expert on the CHL but the top scorer in Brandon had like 10 points less then the 5th scorer in Regina. it should also be noted that Regina had 2 guys who scored 130+ points.

If I had to guess if you transplanted Steel to a lesser roster he probably breaks 100 points but is nowhere close to 130.

Can't say I know enough to compare, but Patrick's team was pretty damn good: http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=857&year0=2016&status=stats

That is last years roster, this years roster lost many key players

http://www.eliteprospects.com/team.php?team=857&year0=2017&status=stats

In terms of judging players just based on stats(which for the sake of argument is a terrible way to judge players) I look for those guys who stats are separated from the rest of the pack on their team. it why for instance it was hard to rate Tkachuk and Dvorak actual contribution when they playing with eachother and Marner in London last year for instance

 

[WhatWhat]

I'm not suggesting that Steel = Patrick. I am referring to an earlier post that argues that Steel would be a mid-to-late first rounder in this draft. I think he'd be among the best if he were to somehow re-enter.

His production at 18 is exceptional, regardless of how one looks at it.

That's because those saying he would be a mid to late 1st are using his numbers from last year.... using a players +1 numbers to gage where he would go is pointless because you expect most drafted player to make decent strides in their first year

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

I hate when people obsess over where players would go in a draft now... impossible to know cause they are a year old than previous year and have made improvements

 

[93LEAFS]

Where he would go is hard to answer, because there are really 2 different responses due to the different scenarios.

Let's use age and league adjusted numbers to get a rough idea looking solely at CHL forwards. Looking at last years first round picks, the three highest age-adjusted ppg's were Matthew Tkachuk with a 2.19, Alex Nylander with a 1.55, and PLD with a 1.44. These factor in all CHL games (regular season and playoff games) and the WJC weighted appropriately. Last year, Sam Steel had a 1.08, this year Steel finished with a 1.55. Looking at this, he is probably worthy of going top 10 to 15 if we only use the info from this given season info on Steel. It was noticeably ahead of his fellow CHL centers draft years such as Logan Brown (1.36), McLeod (1.19), and Howden (1.08).

Now, if we were to do a re-draft factoring in everyone's draft +1, it gets a pretty intriguing. Outside of the two superstars and Tkachuk took at the top of the draft, very few forwards (and more specifically centers) outside of Clayton Keller have dramatically improved their stock. McLeod has basically held the same with 1.13 adjusted age/league ppg, same with Howden who had a nearly identical one. Brown (.93) and PLD (.92) both had disappointing seasons. Non-CHL guys stocks have stayed relatively the same such as Jost and Kunin. Borgstrom's and Frederic's have improved. Jones, Thompson, and Gauthier stocks have either stayed in neutral or slightly decreased. Bellow's has noticeably decreased. Of the non-first rounders, you can say Raddysh stock has probably improved the most.

Looking at both scenarios there is a fair argument that Steel could go top 10. There is a strong argument, outside of Matthews, that Steel is the best center in the 2016 draft. Arguments based on size and "tools" can be made for PLD (size/physicality), Brown (size), Howden (size) and McLeod(skating/size), Jost (tenacity, 2-way play), Borgstrom (size/puck control) but Steel might be the smartest and possibly has the highest offensive upside. The guys he is 100% not above are Matthews, Laine, Tkachuk, Keller, Puljujarvi, Chychrun, and McAvoy. You can probably add Sergachev and Juolevi to the list. Then he is probably in a grouping with A. Nylander, PLD, Bean, and Jost. Breaking it into tiers, you probably have something like this.

Matthews
Laine

Tkachuk

Chychrun
Keller
Puljujarvi
McAvoy
Sergachev
Juolevi

Steel
PLD
A. Nylander
Bean
Jost

Kunin
Borgstrom
Brown
McLeod

Just for quick reference, he would have the second highest CHL adjusted ppg in this draft behind only Nick Suzuki, and slightly ahead of Yamamoto. It would be noticeably ahead of Patrick, Hischier, Tippett, Vilardi and Glass. Now, some of those guys are projected to make a big step (Glass), and Patrick's draft-1 season was 1.72 higher than anything anyone else in this draft has produced in any year. I'd think a team would take him top 10 in this class also, with some discussing him in the top 5.

 

[Frk It]

Now, if we were to do a re-draft factoring in everyone's draft +1, it gets a pretty intriguing. Outside of the two superstars and Tkachuk took at the top of the draft, very few forwards (and more specifically centers) outside of Clayton Keller have dramatically improved their stock. McLeod has basically held the same with 1.13 adjusted age/league ppg, same with Howden who had a nearly identical one. Brown (.93) and PLD (.92) both had disappointing seasons. Non-CHL guys stocks have stayed relatively the same such as Jost and Kunin. Borgstrom's and Frederic's have improved. Jones, Thompson, and Gauthier stocks have either stayed in neutral or slightly decreased. Bellow's has noticeably decreased. Of the non-first rounders, you can say Raddysh stock has probably improved the most.

Looking at both scenarios there is a fair argument that Steel could go top 10. There is a strong argument, outside of Matthews, that Steel is the best center in the 2016 draft. Arguments based on size and "tools" can be made for PLD (size/physicality), Brown (size), Howden (size) and McLeod(skating/size), Jost (tenacity, 2-way play), Borgstrom (size/puck control) but Steel might be the smartest and possibly has the highest offensive upside. The guys he is 100% not above are Matthews, Laine, Tkachuk, Keller, Puljujarvi, Chychrun, and McAvoy. You can probably add Sergachev and Juolevi to the list. Then he is probably in a grouping with A. Nylander, PLD, Bean, and Jost. Breaking it into tiers, you probably have something like this.

Matthews
Laine

Tkachuk

Chychrun
Keller
McAvoy
Sergachev
Juolevi

Steel
PLD
A. Nylander
Bean
Jost

Kunin
Borgstrom
Brown
McLeod

In a re-draft you would take Chychrun over Keller? Really?

 

[93LEAFS]

In a re-draft you would take Chychrun over Keller? Really?

There in the same tier. I'd probably lean Keller, but I don't think the divide is sizable. Chychrun already has shown he looks quite capable as a top 4 defender at the NHL level. His production at ES was quite good. I did it quite quickly, I'm going to edit the original post, because I also forgot to even list Puljujarvi.