Prospect Info: C Noah Ostlund, 16th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Assigned to Rochester 4.17.24

[Zach716]

After taking a deep dive and trying to find everything publicly available I'm feeling a lot better about this pick this morning.

 

[truthbluth]

I'm one of those visiting fans that have been watching Ostlund for months and thinks you got a steal. The Sabres have no problem coming up with middle sixers lately so why not take a swing on a guy with #1C upside. I see Sebastian Aho potential and had him #8 on my list.



I think that's a common misconception. Lambert doesn't have the vision or game sense, players like that are not high upside. A player with elite IQ who needs to work on strength or tools would be high upside, that's Ostlund not Lambert. Yurov looks more well rounded with nothing elite showing in the KHL. You'll get differing opinions on Miroshnichenko but I never thought he was a superstar in the making.

Beyond that I don't know how folks can watch this full video and not see crazy high potential:





Perhaps Sabres scouts would have preferred one of them in the absence of the Russian factor, I don't know, but some of us think Ostlund has higher upside than both of them.

What he does at 1:50 is comical. I guffawed.

 

[truthbluth]

Not my favorite pick, but I don’t hate it. For people who wanted Kemell, I’ll say this: What I like most about Ostlund is directly aligned with what I like least about Kemell. Hockey IQ. Kemell is a volume shooter and most of his goals wouldn’t beat an NHL goalie. He always looks to shoot, even when there isn’t a good shot available and he rarely seems to see the best ply. On the other hand, Ostlund is a distributor and a thinker. He sets up high percentage plays, and if he can’t find them, he makes a play to maintain possession, whereas Kemell is a possession killer. Ostlund is a puck wizard, and he’s a good (if a bit overrated) skater, and he’s probably top five in the draft class in offensive hockey IQ.

I would have taken Bischel here, and I continue to be concerned that this FO doesn’t like to draft defensemen, but among available forwards, Ostlund was near the top of my preference. Not THE top, which would be his U18 linemate, but near the top. Fine Pick.

Side note: I can remember being jealous of Toronto and Carolina drafts because they just stacked skill on skill on skill. Nice to be in the club.

 

[Jim Bob]

Maybe it's me, but I get some Krebs vibes from Ostlund as a playmaking center with a good compete level.

I liked the idea of the Djurgarden and NTDP guys this year. So, I don't mind this pick. I can see him being the set up guy for Quinn, Peterka, Rosen, or Kulich down the line.

 

[markpenske]

not very excited about this pick.
I can't stop thinking what could have been if the Murray trade went down. This could have been Kasper

 

[Paxon]

not very excited about this pick.
I can't stop thinking what could have been if the Murray trade went down. This could have been Kasper

If they made the Murray trade, the pick from that (#7) would have been Kasper. This pick still would have been Ostlund unless having Kasper would have made them go another direction, but couldn't have been Kasper since Detroit would have taken him if we didn't at #7.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Just being honest we are not the red wings . Hope sabres can keep dev… these first picks like They did this season . Long time since

Funny to read a bunch of people who are long-time draft followers singing his praises on the Prospect Thread about him and yet here we are with people so angry they can't type calling this already a bust.

Yeah.

We're back to hot-take nation here.

but you know . Playoffs no, long time . Not strong like red wing. Dylan Larkin sad

 

[Faceboner]

Funny to read a bunch of people who are long-time draft followers singing his praises on the Prospect Thread about him and yet here we are with people so angry they can't type calling this already a bust.

Yeah.

We're back to hot-take nation here.

Well he's far from a bust more of a backstrom lite

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

He’s the least shinny of the 3 picks but his aggregate draft ranking was 19 we took him at 16. If you just look at the top lists he was projected everywhere from mid 1st to late second. 3 1st rounders 1 real gamble for top end. 3 upside centers in the first round 1 hits his ceiling and we are in good shape. Even if they just maintain their development and keep value they’ll be very valuable pieces.

Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin are wasted picks if you don’t develop players properly. You can not like aspects of a pick, value, skill set, drive but to call a pick wasted before the guy even hits the ice for dev camp is pretty much worthless commentary and no on is going to give you credit for being right.

 

[Deevo]

If they made the Murray trade, the pick from that (#7) would have been Kasper. This pick still would have been Ostlund unless having Kasper would have made them go another direction, but couldn't have been Kasper since Detroit would have taken him if we didn't at #7.

This pick wouldn't have existed. #16 was part of the deal

 

[Paxon]

This pick wouldn't have existed. #16 was part of the deal

My bad. I just woke up and was thinking we were talking about pick 9 even though, obviously, this isn't the right player for that.

 

[Sabresbyswords104]

You cant think like That sabres need to hit every pick cant just take the mystery box because ee have more picks. So ostlund can be like backstrom ?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Players who don't produce in lower tiers require some eye test imo. Smaller skill guys who don't produce are a huge red flag.

Asplund was better in the SHL as a D-1.

This isn't the development curve of Hoglander, who was holding his own in the J20 at 17 while being tiny, and a full time SHL contributor at 17.

 

[Paxon]

You cant think like That sabres need to hit every pick cant just take the mystery box because ee have more picks. So ostlund can be like backstrom ?

The Sabres don't need to hit every pick. No team is capable of doing that, even picks in the first two rounds.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

You cant think like That sabres need to hit every pick cant just take the mystery box because ee have more picks. So ostlund can be like backstrom ?

There's nothing to suggest Ostlund has developed like Backstrom. Backstrom was in the J20 at 13! and a big contributor in the SHL his draft year, all in an era with significantly lower scoring.

 

[Fezzy126]

I don't dislike the pick, not even close, but I wasn't as high on the Djurgardens triplets as some others. I was way more into the USDP kids and was really hoping we'd take Snuggerud with this pick.

But... the kid has a really exciting toolbox and the potential is very high, a lot to be excited about. I'm looking forward to tracking his development over the next few years!

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I don't dislike the pick, not even close, but I wasn't as high on the Djurgardens triplets as some others. I was way more into the USDP kids and was really hoping we'd take Snuggerud with this pick.

But... the kid has a really exciting toolbox and the potential is very high, a lot to be excited about. I'm looking forward to tracking his development over the next few years!

A really exciting toolbox? He's an ok skater who can pass, is slight and can't shoot. That's at best a pretty flawed toolbox.

Unless you're saying you think he's smart (toolbox), but doesn't have tools (physical attributes or skills). I could buy that analogy.

 

[truthbluth]

Players who don't produce in lower tiers require some eye test imo. Smaller skill guys who don't produce are a huge red flag.

Asplund was better in the SHL as a D-1.

This isn't the development curve of Hoglander, who was holding his own in the J20 at 17 while being tiny, and a full time SHL contributor at 17.

Apples and oranges frankly. Asplund’s D-1 year was roughly equivalent to Lucas Raymond’s D-1. That doesn’t make them equivalent players. Ostlund is obviously a projection of what he can be more than what he’s done so far. But this kid outplayed everybody on team USA at the U18s throughout the tournament, and in the final he was the best player on the ice against 4 players drafted ahead of him.

A really exciting toolbox? He's an ok skater who can pass, is slight and can't shoot. That's at best a pretty flawed toolbox.

This is really inaccurate.

 

[joshjull]

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Apples and oranges frankly. Asplund’s D-1 year was roughly equivalent to Lucas Raymond’s D-1. That doesn’t make them equivalent players. Ostlund is obviously a projection of what he can be more than what he’s done so far. But this kid outplayed everybody on team USA at the U18s throughout the tournament, and in the final he was the best player on the ice against 4 players drafted ahead of him.


This is really inaccurate.

You know what the apples and oranges of Asplund and Raymond have in common? They made the NHL. Look at the NHL graduation rate of players with SHL D season like Ostlund and Rosen. It's not good.

Sure a team/player can get lucky. Maybe KA has figured out something the rest of the league hasn't, draft based on international tournaments; in the past that's been a suspect strategy.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

I don't dislike the pick, not even close, but I wasn't as high on the Djurgardens triplets as some others. I was way more into the USDP kids and was really hoping we'd take Snuggerud with this pick.

But... the kid has a really exciting toolbox and the potential is very high, a lot to be excited about. I'm looking forward to tracking his development over the next few years!

This is fair, but one thing if you watch him entering the zone, he's deceptive in his motion to draw defenders, and has full ice vision to make a slick tape to tape pass. His speed is again deceptive, and he has multiple tricks. I realize he was more of a 20's pick, but where we are, and the lack of "true" center depth, he's a huge asset. I was hugely surprised with Tage this past season, but I really want to see him follow that up with something somewhat similar, before I'm ready to believe he's truly a top six center.

 

[Sabresbyswords104]

Seems like a bad pick if he is like asplund . Asplund is a 4 line player . You cant hit om every pick but you cant draft Girgensons grigorenko rosen risto mitts and these players that bust . Of course you dont winn the cup sometime you need to hit a debrincat with your lower picks. Maybe you are not from Sweden Either so you dont know but sabres havent been good develop swedes as yzerman is . He knows what type of swedish players to draft he drafts good .

 

[Fjordy]

Aho

 

[Sabresbyswords104]

Edvinsson Raymond Seider Kasper these are good picks he prob… hit on all 4 sabres need do to that . Sometimes They draft so weird one year They could take vasilevsky with 14 pick then They take Girgensons wtf i was so angry and i told my friend we missed on a first goalie when we didnt have one and he can winn the vezina in the future. Was so angry. Didnt make sense They already went one russian player first . I know 100 procent They should go with him . How could i know this ? The scout should know this there havent been any really good latvia player before so chances of him being top 6 c was very smal . Same with debrincat was hoping for him i know he was going to be good then we take someone else and Chicago hits their late pick because we are stupid .

 

[Paxon]

I dub thee "The Flying Tiger"