Alot of people at his draft date didn't expect him to be much better than a 3rd liner unless he dramatically exceeded expectations. Seems to be why there was such a massive disconnect between people here and some arm-chair scouts and where he actually went.
Was there actually a big disconnect? It seems like you are exaggerating this point.
I think I was someone who had him higher than most. I might be one of these arm-chair scouts. I had him 13th at the draft. I'm not sure there were actually people who had him much higher than that range. The 11-15 of that draft was Wahlstrom, Dobson, Dellandrea, Farabee, Denisenko. Is Veleno really that much worse than those players?
Even if he only ends up a third liner/middle sixer, would that have been a bad outcome for a player drafted 11-15? If you are getting a middle of the league NHL'er at pick 30, thats clearly a successful pick. I think we can all say that he's looking better than the 30th pick.
And while there's worthy debate if he was worth a pick in the ~11-15 range, I'm not sure he's on a bad path for that range. If a player like Dellandrea had .5PPG this year in the AHL (if it was up and running with a full season), would anyone be calling that a bad season? .5PPG or better in the 20 year old year in that caliber of league (SHL being similar caliber) is pretty good. There aren't that many guys who produce at that rate who aren't at least third line forwards eventually.