C Jay O'Brien - Toronto Marlies, AHL (2018, 19th, PHI released)

[tnfrs]

Yo the pick was universally hated at the time. Especially with everyone screaming for Miller.

Just happy we get a 2nd out of this

Was actually just coming to say this, nobody liked the pick and Ill always be a Miller fan I wanted him so bad, hes gonna haunt us for years

 

[mr figgles]

Yo the pick was universally hated at the time. Especially with everyone screaming for Miller.

Just happy we get a 2nd out of this

No it wasn’t. Go back and look. Search for Jay. It was mostly positive or mixed. More people wanted Bode Wilde, not Miller as a D pick there. Those threads are also full of so many other bad opinions, so who cares what they thought anyway.

 

[2014nyr]

A few things:

The Flyers bet on the exciting glimpses he showed pre-draft. Those have proven to be mirages.

It's hard to evaluate players. It's especially hard to do when they play in lower leagues.

Providence was not a good fit. I don't think you can blame Providence as it's not like O'Brien has been able to really turn things around after leaving. But Providence doesn't really play the style to realize those early glimpses if there was even a chance.

i agree with what you're saying re providence as a fit for a player that's less polished on the details and more projection on high end potential, but curious what his options were at the time he was deciding. guessing you're familiar with how weird/random/opaque college hockey recruiting can be for most players, outside the truly elite program changers, when it comes to which schools make offers/what the offer constitutes financially/how likely it is that may change if someone else commits. coming out of prep school, wonder if they were the highest profile school after him at the time, given prov was going to the tourny every year in those years. prob would have been better off at like quinnipiac or even a uconn type, though in the end not sure how much difference it woulda made.

 

[bigdog16]

That's fine, I don't necessarily disagree and agree it's a bad pick, but my point is that it's not like the Flyers missed out on a bunch of big time players taking a project that didn't really pan out.

Maybe I am super biased but K’Andre Miller seems like a pretty big time player

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

He was a project, as most prep school kids tend to be. He did turn into a good college player at BU, but as mentioned, he did an overage (aged 20) Junior season in the BCHL so he was pretty old by the time he got there, after flaming out of Providence.

I do think he is going to get signed to an NHL Contract now that he is a Free Agent, and does have a chance to be an NHL player.

It was of course a bad draft pick, but it's not like there were tons of great options in that draft vicinity as it turned out. The next 9 picks were Rasmus Kupari, Ryan Merkely, K'Andre Miller, Isaac Lundestrom, Filip Johansen, Dominik Bokk, Jacob Bernard-Docker and Nils Lundkvist. There's like 1 good player in that mix.

2018 is looking more and more like a Draft that had a strong Top-14 and then a pretty dramatic fall off after, as there isn't a ton of late pick sleepers emerging at the moment (of course those picks tend to take longer, so I'm sure there will be some at the end of the day, but there's a pretty dramatic separation right now between the top picks and everyone else).

Reason and logic in a HFBoards post; particularly in respect to a late first round pick by the Flyers.

It will be interesting to see the trajectory of O'brien's career. May very well be an NHL/AHL tweener. While that would not sound exciting as he was a first-round pick, for the 2018 draft it would be about par for the course.

 

[bigdog16]

i agree with what you're saying re providence as a fit for a player that's less polished on the details and more projection on high end potential, but curious what his options were at the time he was deciding. guessing you're familiar with how weird/random/opaque college hockey recruiting can be for most players, outside the truly elite program changers, when it comes to which schools make offers/what the offer constitutes financially/how likely it is that may change if someone else commits. coming out of prep school, wonder if they were the highest profile school after him at the time, given prov was going to the tourny every year in those years. prob would have been better off at like quinnipiac or even a uconn type, though in the end not sure how much difference it woulda made.

I think regardless he needed the one year of junior after his prep season. Wouldn’t have mattered where he played. There really is no difference between what a guy like OBrien did vs. Jack Dugan in their draft years. Dugan probably played better competition too. For some reason there is an aura around nepsac hockey that simply should not exist anymore. Dugan played that 1 year of junior before going to Providence and lit it up. Realistically OBrien should have been on that same path

Reason and logic in a HFBoards post; particularly in respect to a late first round pick by the Flyers.

It will be interesting to see the trajectory of O'brien's career. May very well be an NHL/AHL tweener. While that would not sound exciting as he was a first-round pick, for the 2018 draft it would be about par for the course.

I would love to be proved wrong but I would be shocked if he ever steps foot in an NHL game. There are plenty of guys every year who put up better numbers than him and end up barely hacking it in the AHL. If he was never a 1st round pick he would just be another depth piece for an org

 

[tnfrs]

I think regardless he needed the one year of junior after his prep season. Wouldn’t have mattered where he played. There really is no difference between what a guy like OBrien did vs. Jack Dugan in their draft years. Dugan probably played better competition too. For some reason there is an aura around nepsac hockey that simply should not exist anymore. Dugan played that 1 year of junior before going to Providence and lit it up. Realistically OBrien should have been on that same path

I would love to be proved wrong but I would be shocked if he ever steps foot in an NHL game. There are plenty of guys every year who put up better numbers than him and end up barely hacking it in the AHL. If he was never a 1st round pick he would just be another depth piece for an org

Perfect examples are in the Flyers system right now, Massimo Rizzo if he signs could end up being just a good AHL player and even that is yet to be seen, and we drafted his linemate Bobby Brink in the 2nd round 2019, they won a championship together at Denver but hes only played 4 NHL games so far. The jurys still out on either one, but youre right when you say theres guys every year who just dont hit that next level.

 

[bigdog16]

Perfect examples are in the Flyers system right now, Massimo Rizzo if he signs could end up being just a good AHL player and even that is yet to be seen, and we drafted his linemate Bobby Brink in the 2nd round 2019, they won a championship together at Denver but hes only played 4 NHL games so far. The jurys still out on either one, but youre right when you say theres guys every year who just dont hit that next level.

Yup . Go up and down AHL rosters and they are filled with players with great D1 numbers. Pro hockey is a different animal.

 

[William H Bonney]

i agree with what you're saying re providence as a fit for a player that's less polished on the details and more projection on high end potential, but curious what his options were at the time he was deciding. guessing you're familiar with how weird/random/opaque college hockey recruiting can be for most players, outside the truly elite program changers, when it comes to which schools make offers/what the offer constitutes financially/how likely it is that may change if someone else commits. coming out of prep school, wonder if they were the highest profile school after him at the time, given prov was going to the tourny every year in those years. prob would have been better off at like quinnipiac or even a uconn type, though in the end not sure how much difference it woulda made.

They were not his only option as he could have gone to most top schools, especially in the Northeast.

In hindsight I'm sure he'd make a lot of different choices. Left Prep for the USHL. Committed to a different college. Doing so would not have been a guarantee to have positively changed his trajectory, but he wasn't ready for NCAA hockey, he got injured a bunch, and it was downhill from there. The biggest reality is likely that he just wasn't that good.

 

[tnfrs]

They were not his only option as he could have gone to most top schools, especially in the Northeast.

In hindsight I'm sure he'd make a lot of different choices. Left Prep for the USHL. Committed to a different college. Doing so would not have been a guarantee to have positively changed his trajectory, but he wasn't ready for NCAA hockey, he got injured a bunch, and it was downhill from there. The biggest reality is likely that he just wasn't that good.

I remember there being a reason why he switched colleges, he ended up back in the BCHL for a year after he had a bad start in college but I cant remember if it was academic or because of his on ice performance. So he lost that year after the draft which def didnt help his development.

 

[William H Bonney]

I remember there being a reason why he switched colleges, he ended up back in the BCHL for a year after he had a bad start in college but I cant remember if it was academic or because of his on ice performance. So he lost that year after the draft which def didnt help his development.

I don't remember if there was a specific reason. He did try to file a petition to be able to play immediately with BU without sitting out a year, so I'm sure he threw out some reasoning in that process. Often folks try to use being closer to family (i.e., parent illness) as the petition justification but that would have been a hard sell as Providence and BU are like an hour apart. His petition was denied.

I imagine the reasons are he had a really bad freshman season, he was injured a lot, and he thought Providence was probably not the right fit or partially to blame for his poor year.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Boring name, never had a chance

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Perfect examples are in the Flyers system right now, Massimo Rizzo if he signs could end up being just a good AHL player and even that is yet to be seen, and we drafted his linemate Bobby Brink in the 2nd round 2019, they won a championship together at Denver but hes only played 4 NHL games so far. The jurys still out on either one, but youre right when you say theres guys every year who just dont hit that next level.

Other than both players playing college hockey there is little similarity between the career progressions of Jay O'Brien and Bobby Brink to this point. Other than a serious injury, Brink has been successful at every juncture to this point (already appearing in 10 NHL games). He was also a key player for the USA gold medal team; playing with guys like Zegras, Beniers and Kaliyev.

 

[tnfrs]

Other than both players playing college hockey there is little similarity between the career progressions of Jay O'Brien and Bobby Brink to this point. Other than a serious injury, Brink has been successful at every juncture to this point (already appearing in 10 NHL games). He was also a key player for the USA gold medal team; playing with guys like Zegras, Beniers and Kaliyev.

wasnt comparing them as players, and theres world junior guys that dont make the NHL every year too but thats a whole different conversation

 

[Nabrules]

Remember the Rangers were really high on him in the 2018 draft, and were reportedly pissed when PHI jumped up and took him! Wonder if any scouts from that regime who are still there are pushing for him.

 

[wetcoast]

Maybe I am super biased but K’Andre Miller seems like a pretty big time player

The NYR group looks great on paper yet that team still isn't a serious SC contender even with a superman goalie at times and a recent #1 and #2 on their forward group.

NYR are the team that is less than their parts.

 

[bigdog16]

The NYR group looks great on paper yet that team still isn't a serious SC contender even with a superman goalie at times and a recent #1 and #2 on their forward group.

NYR are the team that is less than their parts.

If Shesterkin is in superman mode the Rangers are definitely serious contenders. I don’t think thats even a debate. Bobrovsky just carried a mediocre Florida team to the finals.

But what does this have to do with Jay OBrien or anythint I responded to?

 

[bert]

If Shesterkin is in superman mode the Rangers are definitely serious contenders. I don’t think thats even a debate. Bobrovsky just carried a mediocre Florida team to the finals.

But what does this have to do with Jay OBrien or anythint I responded to?

I'd take Florida's team over the Rangers. Top players are better, they play with way more speed and jam. They are coming off a presidents trophy season then endured lots of turnover and injuries. That Rangers team I saw in the playoffs ain't winning anything. Too slow, not physical. They are going to get passed by teams like Buffalo and Ottawa soon.

 

[bigdog16]

I'd take Florida's team over the Rangers. Top players are better, they play with way more speed and jam. They are coming off a presidents trophy season then endured lots of turnover and injuries. That Rangers team I saw in the playoffs ain't winning anything. Too slow, not physical. They are going to get passed by teams like Buffalo and Ottawa soon.

Ok and I would take Shesterkin over Bobrovsky. Which was the entire point of my post. Shesterkin can single handidly win the Rangers the cup. The Rangers are good enough in front of him to win if he stands on his head.

But again back to Jay Obrien

 

[wetcoast]

If Shesterkin is in superman mode the Rangers are definitely serious contenders. I don’t think thats even a debate. Bobrovsky just carried a mediocre Florida team to the finals.

But what does this have to do with Jay OBrien or anythint I responded to?

I was responding to your comment that Miller is a big time player.

Also Shesterkin was superman in the 21-22 season and they were lucky to get out of the first round but Trouba hunting Crosby sure helped.

Jay Obrien was a poor draft pick plain and simple though.

 

[bigdog16]

I was responding to your comment that Miller is a big time player.

Also Shesterkin was superman in the 21-22 season and they were lucky to get out of the first round but Trouba hunting Crosby sure helped.

Jay Obrien was a poor draft pick plain and simple though.

Haha my Miller comment has nothing to do with the Rangers ability to make a playoff run. It was in response to someone claiming there weren’t any big name players picked after OBrien.

 

[wetcoast]

Haha my Miller comment has nothing to do with the Rangers ability to make a playoff run.

That's sort of the point though right with all those big game players.....

It was in response to someone claiming there weren’t any big name players picked after OBrien.

So a single guy and then a whole lot of partial and total misses.....

 

[TLEH]

If Shesterkin is in superman mode the Rangers are definitely serious contenders. I don’t think thats even a debate. Bobrovsky just carried a mediocre Florida team to the finals.

But what does this have to do with Jay OBrien or anythint I responded to?

Florida isn’t mediocre. They just had injuries during the regular season

 

[bigdog16]

That's sort of the point though right with all those big game players.....


So a single guy and then a whole lot of partial and total misses.....

I dont even know what you are talking about at this point. My original comment was that KAndre Miller is a really good player that was picked after OBrien - after someone claimed there werent any. Now you are spewing nonsense I dont even understand what you are trying to say

 

[LemonSauceD]

The NYR group looks great on paper yet that team still isn't a serious SC contender even with a superman goalie at times and a recent #1 and #2 on their forward group.

NYR are the team that is less than their parts.

Like a Mercedes