C Curtis Lazar (2013, 17th overall, Ottawa)

[BondraTime]

Anyone who thought Lazar had anything beyond the offensive skill set of a third liner is on crack. He's a heart and soul type, and he made it work in the OHL. He's a great player to have, but he's never going to be an offensive go-to option. Ever.

Great to see you watched him in the OHL all those years!

He is not a very effective player at the moment, awful offensively.

 

[edguy]

Lol not every high pick needs to turn into some high end offensive player... fact is he is an excellent 2nd/3rd line 2 way player at 20 years old. If he stays that for his career that's an excellent pick.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

^ This.

Lazar will be alright. He will turn into that player every team wants. Hard driving , Hard hitting, Great defensively, Reliable role player that helps the offensive guys produce.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

People need to stop being so impatient. He's 20 years old and has 20 points in 80+ games of NHL experience without any significant PP time. He's also great defensively.

The idea that we'll never see more offensively from Lazar is shortsighted beyond belief. Kesler had the exact same concerns about his game and put up almost the exact same point totals at the same point in his career. Is Kesler limited offensively?

Most players can't handle the NHL at 20 years old. As his offensive minutes build because of injuries and line mixing, we'll see more of what Lazar can do offensively.

 

[Jerrico]

fact is he is an excellent 2nd/3rd line 2 way player at 20 years old. If he stays that for his career that's an excellent pick.

I'm sorry...I'm a Sens' fan but I just can't get behind this. Lazar has 5 points in 22 games this season. In no way shape or form is that second-line production. Playing the occasional game on the team's second line doesn't make him a second-line quality player.

 

[Jerrico]

People need to stop being so impatient. He's 20 years old and has 20 points in 80+ games of NHL experience without any significant PP time. He's also great defensively.

The idea that we'll never see more offensively from Lazar is shortsighted beyond belief. Kesler had the exact same concerns about his game and put up almost the exact same point totals at the same point in his career. Is Kesler limited offensively?

Most players can't handle the NHL at 20 years old. As his offensive minutes build because of injuries and line mixing, we'll see more of what Lazar can do offensively.

For every 1 Ryan Kesler, there are 10 Brandon Sutters.

Generally speaking, offensive talent is apparent from a young age. Most players actually top out in terms of offensive production in their early to mid twenties.

The reason most 20 year olds can't handle the NHL is because they struggle defensively. The fact that Lazar excels in that arena is great, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly going to blossom into a top-6 forward.

What you call short-sighted I call realistic.

Could he turn into a 20-goal, 60 point player? Sure. But the odds are strongly against him.

 

[NyQuil]

For the record, Lazar has not shown the kind of hands that a top 6 forward should have.

Does that mean he's incapable of top 6 production?

No, you've got guys out there like Mike Knuble or Dustin Brown who have put up fine seasons doing the grunt work for more skilled players.

However, based on his play to date, he's not going to finish a lot of chances on his own.

He's relatively fast, his instincts aren't bad and he is fearless going to and around the net.

Unfortunately, good scoring chances die on the end of his stick. What's funny is that it doesn't really matter how good the chance is - it 'aint going in. He'll fumble a clear break or he'll fire it top corner. In the first case, the puck rolls off his stick, on the second, the goalie makes a highlight reel save.

For whatever reason, it's not going in for him right now.

Still a young kid, but those hands are concerning for those who have him pegged as a top 6 skill guy.

I don't see it to date.

 

[NyQuil]

He's 20 years old and has 20 points in 80+ games of NHL experience without any significant PP time. He's also great defensively.

He's been on the PP this year, over guys like Puempel, Pageau and Prince.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

He's been on the PP this year, over guys like Puempel, Pageau and Prince.

Yeah, #9 on the team behind offensive dynamo Alex Chaisson. Hovering around 1 minute per game.

#273 in the NHL.

Come on NyQuil.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

For every 1 Ryan Kesler, there are 10 Brandon Sutters.

Generally speaking, offensive talent is apparent from a young age. Most players actually top out in terms of offensive production in their early to mid twenties.

The reason most 20 year olds can't handle the NHL is because they struggle defensively. The fact that Lazar excels in that arena is great, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly going to blossom into a top-6 forward.

What you call short-sighted I call realistic.

Could he turn into a 20-goal, 60 point player? Sure. But the odds are strongly against him.

I'd like to see some stats to back that up.

Lazar is 20, not 24 or 28. The most he could legally have played is 180 or so games. You're saying that a player's offensive ceiling can be accurately judged that early Lazar has "peaked" by age 20 offensively? ********.

On the Ottawa Senators alone right now there are scoring line guys Turris, Hoffman, and MacArthur who would have "busted" offensively by your logic. 1/2 the top line missed their peak I guess....

Only Michalek and Bobby Ryan are true offensive players because they showed it early in their careers? How's Michalek's offense these days?

A fan of a team with Alfredsson is going to suggest a player's best offensive years are early in their career? His best years occurred when he was mid-30's, not mid 20's.

Utter nonsense. I'd question the methodology of any study that suggests a player peaks before mid-twenties.

 

[habsrule4eva3089]

Poor man's Ryan Smyth.

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah, #9 on the team behind offensive dynamo Alex Chaisson. Hovering around 1 minute per game.

#273 in the NHL.

Come on NyQuil.

He's had 34 minutes of PP time this year (1:30 per game) while guys like Prince, Smith, Pageau and Puempel have had far less (1:49 to 7:32 total).

I'm not saying he can't evolve into a better offensive player.

I'm saying, from what he's shown in a very limited sample thus far, he hasn't shown a lot of offence in his game.

That's all.

There are all kinds of legitimate reasons why that is, but I'm not going to pretend that I'm seeing an elite offensive talent on the ice right now because I'm not seeing it.

 

[GreatStateofHockey]

For every 1 Ryan Kesler, there are 10 Brandon Sutters.

Generally speaking, offensive talent is apparent from a young age. Most players actually top out in terms of offensive production in their early to mid twenties.

The reason most 20 year olds can't handle the NHL is because they struggle defensively. The fact that Lazar excels in that arena is great, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly going to blossom into a top-6 forward.

What you call short-sighted I call realistic.

Could he turn into a 20-goal, 60 point player? Sure. But the odds are strongly against him.

This is true for most offensive superstars, not offensive players in general.

 

[Jerrico]

I'd like to see some stats to back that up.

Lazar is 20, not 24 or 28. The most he could legally have played is 180 or so games. You're saying that a player's offensive ceiling can be accurately judged that early Lazar has "peaked" by age 20 offensively? ********.

On the Ottawa Senators alone right now there are scoring line guys Turris, Hoffman, and MacArthur who would have "busted" offensively by your logic. 1/2 the top line missed their peak I guess....

Only Michalek and Bobby Ryan are true offensive players because they showed it early in their careers? How's Michalek's offense these days?

A fan of a team with Alfredsson is going to suggest a player's best offensive years are early in their career? His best years occurred when he was mid-30's, not mid 20's.

Utter nonsense. I'd question the methodology of any study that suggests a player peaks before mid-twenties.

This is a difficult post to respond to, as you have completely misrepresented what I said. I never said that Lazar has peaked, nor did I say anything about anyone busting. I said two things of importance:

1) That in general, players peak offensively in their early to mid twenties.

2) That by the age of 20, you can usually see glimpses of the offensive skillset (vision, hands, shot, creativity, etc) that a player will one day possess. Which has not been the case with Lazar.

Further to (1), here are the top 10 scorers from 10 years ago, followed by the (age) at which they had their best offensive season.

1 Joe Thornton (26)
2 Jaromir Jagr (24)
3 Alex Ovechkin (22)
4 Dany Heatley (26)
5 Daniel Alfresson (33)
6 Sidney Crosby (19)
7 Eric Staal (21)
8 Ilya kovalchuk (23)
9 Marc Savard (28)
10) Jonathan Cheechoo (25)

As you can see, Alfredsson is the exception, not the rule. This is a small sample size, but if you do some more digging you will find that, on average, NHL players peak offensively between the ages of 22 and 26.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

This is a difficult post to respond to, as you have completely misrepresented what I said. I never said that Lazar has peaked, nor did I say anything about anyone busting. I said two things of importance:

1) That in general, players peak offensively in their early to mid twenties.

2) That by the age of 20, you can usually see glimpses of the offensive skillset (vision, hands, shot, creativity, etc) that a player will one day possess. Which has not been the case with Lazar.

Further to (1), here are the top 10 scorers from 10 years ago, followed by the (age) at which they had their best offensive season.

1 Joe Thornton (26)
2 Jaromir Jagr (24)
3 Alex Ovechkin (22)
4 Dany Heatley (26)
5 Daniel Alfresson (33)
6 Sidney Crosby (19)
7 Eric Staal (21)
8 Ilya kovalchuk (23)
9 Marc Savard (28)
10) Jonathan Cheechoo (25)

As you can see, Alfredsson is the exception, not the rule. This is a small sample size, but if you do some more digging you will find that, on average, NHL players peak offensively between the ages of 22 and 26.

A player's best years are from 22-26? Of course statistics are going to reflect that because most NHL players don't make a team until they're 22. They're not going to be having amazing statistical seasons before that.

As players age, their chances of suffering career ending injuries increases, they tend to accept more defensive responsibilities, and they switch teams via free agency after they're 27 which, of course, is going to have an effect on their production.

Furthermore, when an NHL career spans 20+ years and includes multiple rule changes and scoring eras, there's going to be some "apples vs oranges comparisons". Of course guys like Alfredsson, Jagr, Selanne from 05-07 had resurgences during that small period where interference was enforced and league-wide scoring was up. That doesn't mean they suddenly got better offensively. Comparing scoring like that is such an inexact science, it is pretty much pointless. Gretzky is a perfect example. Got traded away from a powerhouse, rules changed mid-career, and scoring nosedived league-wide. His offensive abilities never changed though, he was still amazing.

We're not just talking about the top-10 scorers here either. No one is suggesting Lazar will be that good offensively. I just seem to be the only only suggesting we should wait quite a bit longer before saying that he has not shown any offensive potential and should write him off as a third line player before his 21st birthday. The guy is snakebit. Hoffman had the same issue in his first call ups. Now he seems to be burying everything he touches.


If they really want to figure out when a player "peaks" they should be analyzing where a player fit in PPG rankings. Not "best statistical season which is just a whole can of worms.

 

[Very Stable Genius]

Been rushed, he should be in the AHL. While our development successes are well documented (Hoffman, Stone), we've rushed players like Lazar and Ceci and they've stagnated.

 

[Minister of Offence]

Been rushed, he should be in the AHL. While our development successes are well documented (Hoffman, Stone), we've rushed players like Lazar and Ceci and they've stagnated.

We must keep in mind that at this point, opinions on whether Lazar and Ceci were rushed are just that - opinions.

Ceci will take years to hit true maturity and Lazar was never selected to be like Stone and Hoffman. At a certain point, sometimes you have to understand that no matter how good the development process is, you can't just give kids skill that they never had the potential for.

Stone and Hoffman had better offensive skills at 18 than Lazar did. Markedly.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Sens have had three guys with similar production/playstyles at this age:
- Fisher
- Vermette
- Foligno

Let's analyze Lazar first.

Lazar
- Rookie year - 19 y.o: 15pts in 67g
- Other: Won Gold as Captain at WJC
- Sophomore year - 20 y.o: 5 pts in 23 games

Okay, moving on to the other guys.

Fisher
- Rookie year - 19 y.o: 9pts in 32g
- Sophomore year - 20 y.o: 19pts in 60g
- Jr. year - 21 y.o: 24pts in 58g
- 4th year - 22 y.o: 38pts in 74g
- 5th year - 23 y.o: 10pts in 24g
- 6th year - 25 y.o: 44pts in 68g
And that is basically the player Fisher has been in the 10 years since. Only twice has his PPG dropped significantly below the 50pt pace.

Vermette
- Rookie year - 21 y.o: 14pts in 57g
- Sophomore year - 23 y.o: 33 pts in 82g
- Jr. year - 24 y.o: 39 pts in 77g
- 4th year - 25 y.o: 53 pts in 81g
While that would be Vermette's 2nd best season offensively, he has mostly maintained a 40+ pt pace since then. Once again, we see a guy come into his own around 25 y.o

Foligno
- Rookie year - 20 y.o: 9pts in 45g
- Sophomore year - 21 y.o: 32pts in 81g
- Jr. year - 22 y.o: 26 pts in 61g
- 4th year - 23 y.o: 34pts in 82g
- 5th year - 24 y.o: 47pts in 82g
- 6th year - 25 y.o: 19pts in 45g
- 7th year - 26 y.o: 30pts in 70g
- 8th year - 27 y.o: 73pts in 79g
Now, I don't see Foligno as a 73 pt player, but he is definitely in the 45 pt range that he hit in his 5th year, at age 24. His point totals are slightly more impressive than other guys, but he also got prime scoring minutes on pretty bad/average teams. I don't see much that would set him apart from Lazar, at the same age, other than the fact that Lazar is a more responsible player. I also don't expect 70+ pts from Lazar, but all these guys started similarly slowly to Lazar, and all ended up as 40-50 pt guys. None of these guys developed exceptionally well, either; they had good, not spectacular development. I think Lazar is a safe bet to be in that 40-50 range, and could easily be in a broader, 40-60 range (like Fisher). Also, we likely won't have a good idea if he'll get there until he is 24... unless he gets there earlier.

 

[King In The North]

I think a Mike Fisher player is perfectly fine and Sens should be happy with that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think a Mike Fisher player is perfectly fine and Sens should be happy with that.

I'm not sure Lazar has the offensive IQ that Fisher possesses, based on my viewings. I personally still see him topping out as a Brandon Sutter type player. Maybe hits 20 goals in a good year.

I could still end up being wrong, but it is funny to go back and see the hate that was tossed at me for ever suggesting such an absurdly low ceiling.

 

[IComeInPeace]

I'm not sure Lazar has the offensive IQ that Fisher possesses, based on my viewings. I personally still see him topping out as a Brandon Sutter type player. Maybe hits 20 goals in a good year.

I could still end up being wrong, but it is funny to go back and see the hate that was tossed at me for ever suggesting such an absurdly low ceiling.

Well, you can't take it personally....

Prospects aren't anywhere near as good as we think (hope) they are.

We act like pretty much every elite prospect is a sure thing, unless they are on someone else's team (in which case they are the furthest thing from a sure thing)

That ain't even close to reality.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm not sure Lazar has the offensive IQ that Fisher possesses, based on my viewings. I personally still see him topping out as a Brandon Sutter type player. Maybe hits 20 goals in a good year.

I could still end up being wrong, but it is funny to go back and see the hate that was tossed at me for ever suggesting such an absurdly low ceiling.

Doesn't shoot like Fisher either

 

[Rebuilt]

Sens have had three guys with similar production/playstyles at this age:
- Fisher
- Vermette
- Foligno

Let's analyze Lazar first.

Lazar
- Rookie year - 19 y.o: 15pts in 67g
- Other: Won Gold as Captain at WJC
- Sophomore year - 20 y.o: 5 pts in 23 games

Okay, moving on to the other guys.

Fisher
- Rookie year - 19 y.o: 9pts in 32g
- Sophomore year - 20 y.o: 19pts in 60g
- Jr. year - 21 y.o: 24pts in 58g
- 4th year - 22 y.o: 38pts in 74g
- 5th year - 23 y.o: 10pts in 24g
- 6th year - 25 y.o: 44pts in 68g
And that is basically the player Fisher has been in the 10 years since. Only twice has his PPG dropped significantly below the 50pt pace.

Vermette
- Rookie year - 21 y.o: 14pts in 57g
- Sophomore year - 23 y.o: 33 pts in 82g
- Jr. year - 24 y.o: 39 pts in 77g
- 4th year - 25 y.o: 53 pts in 81g
While that would be Vermette's 2nd best season offensively, he has mostly maintained a 40+ pt pace since then. Once again, we see a guy come into his own around 25 y.o

Foligno
- Rookie year - 20 y.o: 9pts in 45g
- Sophomore year - 21 y.o: 32pts in 81g
- Jr. year - 22 y.o: 26 pts in 61g
- 4th year - 23 y.o: 34pts in 82g
- 5th year - 24 y.o: 47pts in 82g
- 6th year - 25 y.o: 19pts in 45g
- 7th year - 26 y.o: 30pts in 70g
- 8th year - 27 y.o: 73pts in 79g
Now, I don't see Foligno as a 73 pt player, but he is definitely in the 45 pt range that he hit in his 5th year, at age 24. His point totals are slightly more impressive than other guys, but he also got prime scoring minutes on pretty bad/average teams. I don't see much that would set him apart from Lazar, at the same age, other than the fact that Lazar is a more responsible player. I also don't expect 70+ pts from Lazar, but all these guys started similarly slowly to Lazar, and all ended up as 40-50 pt guys. None of these guys developed exceptionally well, either; they had good, not spectacular development. I think Lazar is a safe bet to be in that 40-50 range, and could easily be in a broader, 40-60 range (like Fisher). Also, we likely won't have a good idea if he'll get there until he is 24... unless he gets there earlier.

Good stats. Cherry picked the players but good nonetheless and realistic goals.

And all these guys were drafted 17th overall in the deepest draft in a decade?

 

[super6646]

How tf was this guy a first round pick? Just looking at this draft year stats, he wasn’t even a ppg in the WHL ffs. I understand stats don’t mean everything, but 61 pts in 72 games is extremely pedestrian.

 

[InfinityIggy]

How tf was this guy a first round pick? Just looking at this draft year stats, he wasn’t even a ppg in the WHL ffs. I understand stats don’t mean everything, but 61 pts in 72 games is extremely pedestrian.

Intangibles. You'd think I am making a meme, but alas I am not. I mean at least two teams saw enough in him to use high picks to acquire him (Ottawa and Calgary). Just didn't work out, it happens.