C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) III

[Man Bear Pig]

People were saying it before Leafs won the lottery though. It's close between Laine and Matthews at this point.

Meh, it happens every year. Every year there's usually someone who's been the consensus #1 all year, people get bored of talking about that player and need something to discuss so there's almost always talk of other prospects. Seems like it's done more out of boredom than anything to me. I said this before we won the lottery too. Laine is a little bit different though. The Finnish hockey fans are extremely bias and have an agenda to try and get people to buy into Laine being the #1 this year. It doesn't even bother me because it isn't happening. There's not much doubt in my mind that all 30 NHL teams take Matthews #1. I'm aware a few scouts said they'd take Laine first overall but that's just a few scouts opinions, no GM is going to rely on one scout's opinion alone to make a selection. The consensus is and always was Matthews going first.

 

[CashMash]

Meh, it happens every year. Every year there's usually someone who's been the consensus #1 all year, people get bored of talking about that player and need something to discuss so there's almost always talk of other prospects. Seems like it's done more out of boredom than anything to me. I said this before we won the lottery too. Laine is a little bit different though. The Finnish hockey fans are extremely bias and have an agenda to try and get people to buy into Laine being the #1 this year. It doesn't even bother me because it isn't happening. There's not much doubt in my mind that all 30 NHL teams take Matthews #1. I'm aware a few scouts said they'd take Laine first overall but that's just a few scouts opinions, no GM is going to rely on one scout's opinion alone to make a selection. The consensus is and always was Matthews going first.

Thank you for that generalization. Am I to assume then that because you are Canadian you aren't capable of being objective when it comes to Canadian players, or are Canadians somehow magically above that sort of thing?

 

[Alexandrov]

Meh, it happens every year. Every year there's usually someone who's been the consensus #1 all year, people get bored of talking about that player and need something to discuss so there's almost always talk of other prospects. Seems like it's done more out of boredom than anything to me. I said this before we won the lottery too. Laine is a little bit different though. The Finnish hockey fans are extremely bias and have an agenda to try and get people to buy into Laine being the #1 this year. It doesn't even bother me because it isn't happening. There's not much doubt in my mind that all 30 NHL teams take Matthews #1. I'm aware a few scouts said they'd take Laine first overall but that's just a few scouts opinions, no GM is going to rely on one scout's opinion alone to make a selection. The consensus is and always was Matthews going first.

The argument for Laine over Matthews has merit unlike e.g Eichel over McDavid last year. It is silly to assume it is just due to boredom and Finnish bias. Liiga playoffs is the highest level of hockey either of these two has ever faced, and Laine was the best player there. MVP. With all the talk how centers are more important to a team and how only centers can drive their line, it's funny that it is Laine, not Matthews, who has the accolades to match the hype.

The draft order is set in stone, though.

 

[CashMash]

The argument for Laine over Matthews has merit unlike e.g Eichel over McDavid last year. It is silly to assume it is just due to boredom and Finnish bias. Liiga playoffs is the highest level of hockey either of these two has ever faced, and Laine was the best player there. MVP. With all the talk how centers are more important to a team and how only centers can drive their line, it's funny that it is Laine, not Matthews, who has the accolades to match the hype.

The draft order is set in stone, though.

Yes. I mean, Laine's stats are there for all to see. He has a lower PPG, but he also plays in a tougher and more defensive league.

Nevertheless, he has won the Playoff MVP Kurri award and he only just turned 18. He has also showed his ability to elevate his game previously at the U20 tournament. It was him and Pulju who looked truly dominant in that tournament. Don't get me wrong, Matthews looked good as well, but they were the story around that time of the year.

In short, he has an unbelievable shot, the ability to carry a team and be an impact player at under 20 years old and people have admitted that some scouts also place him above Matthews. It is not just some baseless hype.

At the end of the day, I fully expect Matthews to go first, but to pretend that everyone is saying the gap has closed just to generate media hype is somewhat ignorant of the full context here. Matthews is an elite center like Kopitar, while Laine has maybe Kovalchuk-esque potential. His one-timer reminds people of Ovechkin. He has the kind of shot that even though goalies know it's coming, they cannot stop it.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Yes. I mean, Laine's stats are there for all to see. He has a lower PPG, but he also plays in a tougher and more defensive league.

Nevertheless, he has won the Playoff MVP Kurri award and he only just turned 18. He has also showed his ability to elevate his game previously at the U20 tournament. It was him and Pulju who looked truly dominant in that tournament. Don't get me wrong, Matthews looked good as well, but they were the story around that time of the year.

In short, he has an unbelievable shot, the ability to carry a team and be an impact player at under 20 years old and people have admitted that some scouts also place him above Matthews. It is not just some baseless hype.

At the end of the day, I fully expect Matthews to go first, but to pretend that everyone is saying the gap has closed just to generate media hype is somewhat ignorant of the full context here. Matthews is an elite center like Kopitar, while Laine has maybe Kovalchuk-esque potential. His one-timer reminds people of Ovechkin. He has the kind of shot that even though goalies know it's coming, they cannot stop it.

The other thing is Laine is almost a year younger than Matthews and is on more of an upwards developmentary trajection. Matthews has been consistently really good for the past 2 years, Laine has climbed from the consensus #4 or later with attitude issues. The gamble here is whether you expect that trend to carry over to next year or not.

 

[X66]

Every bit the level of a prospect that Eichel is IMO.

Leafs should feel beyond lucky to have won that lottery.

Elite Size
Elite Speed
Elite Skill
Elite Shot
Elite Vision
Elite IQ
Elite Work-ethic

Right down the middle.

 

[Mad Brills*]

It happens every year: guessing over which prospect that does go #1 won't for some ****ing reason.

 

[buttman*]

Thank you for that generalization. Am I to assume then that because you are Canadian you aren't capable of being objective when it comes to Canadian players, or are Canadians somehow magically above that sort of thing?

Seriously? You insult an entire nation? Just so you know it's a reflection on you -- not Canadians.

 

[Aceboogie]

Every bit the level of a prospect that Eichel is IMO.

Leafs should feel beyond lucky to have won that lottery.

Elite Size
Elite Speed
Elite Skill
Elite Shot
Elite Vision
Elite IQ
Elite Work-ethic

Right down the middle.

Yup, I think they are almost same. Tough to distinguish between Matthews/Eichel/Laine

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes. I mean, Laine's stats are there for all to see. He has a lower PPG, but he also plays in a tougher and more defensive league.

Nevertheless, he has won the Playoff MVP Kurri award and he only just turned 18. He has also showed his ability to elevate his game previously at the U20 tournament. It was him and Pulju who looked truly dominant in that tournament. Don't get me wrong, Matthews looked good as well, but they were the story around that time of the year.

In short, he has an unbelievable shot, the ability to carry a team and be an impact player at under 20 years old and people have admitted that some scouts also place him above Matthews. It is not just some baseless hype.

At the end of the day, I fully expect Matthews to go first, but to pretend that everyone is saying the gap has closed just to generate media hype is somewhat ignorant of the full context here. Matthews is an elite center like Kopitar, while Laine has maybe Kovalchuk-esque potential. His one-timer reminds people of Ovechkin. He has the kind of shot that even though goalies know it's coming, they cannot stop it.

The tougher league argument is a bit debatable. Scoring carries over better from the NLA, and under any conversion metric, even ones that value Liiga scoring above the NLA's, Matthews numbers convert better. On top of that Matthews had the second best ppg in his league of guys who played more than 15 games. What Laine did was impressive, but in recent years his totals have been topped by Barkov and Granlund in there draft years. So even if the league is more defensive, he still wasn't near the top of the league in total, whereas Matthews had the 2nd in ppg in his and best gpg for guys who played more than 15 games in the NLA. While the NLA has less depth, it arguably has better first line talent when compared to Finland due to the prevalence of imports. In comparison Laine was 23rd in his league in PPG with players who played more than 15 games. Matthews got more minutes, but Laine would be hard pressed to gain that much ground even with an extra 2 to 3 minutes a game, considering he was already playing around 17.

 

[FlareKnight]

You know this thread has been distinctly lacking in Matthews information. I swear reading through this thing from the early section was mostly just "Matthews shouldn't go to the Leafs or Oilers....draft rules....Laine is as good or better than Matthews, etc." My condolences to all those who argued the point for most of this thread. So basically nothing has changed. Is there no actual discussion on Auston freaking Matthews anywhere to be found? There is literally a Matthews vs Laine thread and yet it still spills into here.

Looking forward to the world championships. There's a chance that at least for a while there might be discussion on Matthew's skills and not everything else .

 

[CashMash]

Seriously? You insult an entire nation? Just so you know it's a reflection on you -- not Canadians.

Did you read his first comment properly?

My response was a rhetorical question, indicating to him that people are objective enough to be able to look past nationalities.

 

[CashMash]

The tougher league argument is a bit debatable. Scoring carries over better from the NLA, and under any conversion metric, even ones that value Liiga scoring above the NLA's, Matthews numbers convert better. On top of that Matthews had the second best ppg in his league of guys who played more than 15 games. What Laine did was impressive, but in recent years his totals have been topped by Barkov and Granlund in there draft years. So even if the league is more defensive, he still wasn't near the top of the league in total, whereas Matthews had the 2nd in ppg in his and best gpg for guys who played more than 15 games in the NLA. While the NLA has less depth, it arguably has better first line talent when compared to Finland due to the prevalence of imports. In comparison Laine was 23rd in his league in PPG with players who played more than 15 games. Matthews got more minutes, but Laine would be hard pressed to gain that much ground even with an extra 2 to 3 minutes a game, considering he was already playing around 17.

I agree with your point about the PPG translation. I just included that as a pre-emptive to people JUST looking at the numbers. However, it really isn't debatable that Liiga is a tougher league than the NLA. According to consensus, Liiga is just under the Swedish league. As pointed out by another poster in the Auston vs Laine thread, the first lines may be roughly equal, but the depth isn't.

 

[stavs*]

I agree with your point about the PPG translation. I just included that as a pre-emptive to people JUST looking at the numbers. However, it really isn't debatable that Liiga is a tougher league than the NLA. According to consensus, Liiga is just under the Swedish league. As pointed out by another poster in the Auston vs Laine thread, the first lines may be roughly equal, but the depth isn't.

If Matthews was constantly facing top lines which are very comparable in terms of skill then why does it even matter about the rest of the team? NLA has loaded top 6 lineups with poor depth. Matthews played against tough competition in the NLA

 

[CashMash]

If Matthews was constantly facing top lines which are very comparable in terms of skill then why does it even matter about the rest of the team?

What happens in the NHL when you lack depth? There is the answer to the question. It's not like 1st liners just go up against first liners etc. Non-contending teams in the NHL can have very good lines, but lack depth.

 

[stavs*]

What happens in the NHL when you lack depth? There is the answer to the question. It's not like 1st liners just go up against first liners etc. Non-contending teams in the NHL can have very good lines, but lack depth.

Can you explain then why Matthews put up better numbers than P. Kane and Seguin when they went to the NLA during the lockout?

 

[CashMash]

Can you explain then why Matthews put up better numbers than P. Kane and Seguin when they went to the NLA during the lockout?

I didn't see them play there, so no, I can't give you any more information than the stats tell you and I don't care to do so either. I have no trouble admitting Matthews is by far the likely number one in this draft and may well be better than Laine. I'm just saying it's not a guarantee and the gap isn't as big as some people think.

Some of it probably has to do with exposure as well, since Matthews has been hyped for so long and most people haven't seen both players play, which is something I find funny considering that everyone pretends to be an expert (not strictly directed at you and it's not intended as an insult, just an observation)

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Can you explain then why Matthews put up better numbers than P. Kane and Seguin when they went to the NLA during the lockout?

Obviously he's better of course.

 

[CashMash]

Anyway, I'll try to not respond to anymore Laine talk, since I don't want to derail the thread any further than it already is. It's probably best to move it over to the versus thread.

I will say, however, that me being fairly high on Laine in comparison to Matthews, while still considering Matthews to be the safe number one pick, is not about what Matthews did or didn't do. It's more about what Laine has achieved at such a young age and his ability to elevate and finish plays.

At any rate, development isn't always linear, so we'll see how both players turn out in the long run. Toronto and Winnipeg are both very fortunate. As usual, I hope both reach their superstar potential, since it's good for the game.

 

[McMatthews]

I think it was Ray Ferraro on TSN Radio today who compared Auston Matthews to John Tavares but noted that Matthews is a much better skater.

 

[Gavy]

More like Malkin-heavy... Matthews will be at least as good as Malkin.

Come on, man...

 

[david999]

Craig Button is on TSN radio right now, and he is saying that of the past 10 drafts, only Crosby and Mcdavid would be the only players he would draft ahead of Mathews. That is how highly he thinks of him.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Craig Button is on TSN radio right now, and he is saying that of the past 10 drafts, only Crosby and Mcdavid would be the only players he would draft ahead of Mathews. That is how highly he thinks of him.

add Kane and Ovechkin to that list and I agree.

Although I wouldn't trade Matthews for either, mainly due to the Leafs need for a franchise C and age.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Craig Button is on TSN radio right now, and he is saying that of the past 10 drafts, only Crosby and Mcdavid would be the only players he would draft ahead of Mathews. That is how highly he thinks of him.

Button has always marched to the beat of his own drum, no surprise there.

Personally, I would say Kane, Stamkos and Tavares would be close, strictly going by what they did before they were drafted, the skills they had at the time and projections on what we thought they'd do in the future.

But that's only taking into consideration the guys that went first. It also doesn't account for what the players actually went on to achieve. If we do that, guys like Karlsson and Toews enter the conversation too.

 

[JawandaPuck]

Continued here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2072929