Before Galchenyuk's injury, it was extremely close. During the week before the injury, I had a long discussion with Mark about this and we laid out what we were hoping to see in terms of improvements out of these guys, and talked about how very close they all were going into the season. So it's not like he came out of nowhere then we all of a sudden saw him a handful of times and said "Well, lets throw him #1" With the decline in play by Nail and Mikhail, as well as the 3 injuries Nail suffered this year it opened the door for Alex, IF he came back strong to potentially take that spot away. Which as you can see he did.
We explain the decision in the article. Both Grigorenko and Yakupov declined as we neared the end of the season. Galchenyuk came out and showed a great deal of talent, showed improvement, including the improvement in his upper body strength was very noticeable. We have seen more than enough of Galchenyuk to be confident in this decision.
Just as players can move up with good play, they can drop down with bad play, thats the way the rankings work. Players above Alex dropped off enough that he was able to jump over them. The gap was very small to begin with honestly. As mentioned I live in Sarnia, so I was in attendance at all home games minus about 5 in Alex/Nail's rookie season, plus saw them in a decent number of road games that year as well. I probably missed about 10 home games this year for Sarnia because I was traveling a little more for the draft, but again I saw them in quite a few road games as well. We have more than enough viewings on all of these guys to make an educated decision on who will be the most successful player in the NHL. I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with us, and I understand that.
It's possible we're going to be wrong. I don't believe so, or I wouldn't have supported this decision. But we'd rather be wrong and trusting what we've seen, than listening to the social perception of who should be #1, then be pissed off at ourselves if it ended up we were right in the first place, but didn't put the guy we really wanted at #1.
The worst thing you can do as a scout is not go with your gut instinct, becasue if it turns out you woulda been right, it really gets you. It's happened to me a few times when I first started, and it was an important lesson learned.