TSN: Buyer beware if OEL is available

[Brobust]

He just doesn’t do well in Tocchet’s system. They have been at odds since day one. He’ll be just fine on a new team or under a new coach in AZ.

I would be interested in keeping him in AZ if we did hire a new coach, problem is that we need to recoup assets lost from John Chayka’s doing (Hall trade, combine violation sanctions.)

He's not working for us, but I'm sure he'll work for you guys isn't a great pitch. At least if you want some kind of value back.

 

[BruinsBtn]

I’ll believe those rumours when an actual trade happens. I do accept the Coyotes owner is short of money, but he still must spend to the cap floor. Having OEL helps him get to the cap floor.

This isn't the Coyotes of 5 years ago. Arizona is a long ways from the cap floor. They're basically at the cap max and that's without Taylor Hall.

 

[Brobust]

If your analytics draw stupid conclusions like this then your analytics are stupid.

His conclusion was 30 years old and a couple of bad years in a row with that kind of contract is a major gamble.

If you think that's a stupid conclusion...

 

[Mosby]

^ OEL's biggest problem is Rick Tocchet is a fumbling bumbling moron. Almost every player has regressed under Tocchet.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

His conclusion was 30 years old and a couple of bad years in a row with that kind of contract is a major gamble.

If you think that's a stupid conclusion...

the purpose of analytics is to tell me what I want to hear, or they are garbage

 

[_Del_]

^ OEL's biggest problem is Rick Tocchet is a fumbling bumbling moron. Almost every player has regressed under Tocchet.

Stepan comes here and his numbers tank. Kessel vomes here and his numbers tank. Keller and OEL's numbers tank when Tocchet arrived. Strome became a "bust" until he was traded away and immediately scores at a .7+ppg clip. Domi's numbers tanked when Tocchet arrived, until he went to Montreal and suddenly becomes a .7+ ppg center. Etc, etc

I think other GM's probably notice, and that more than a few notice he's still a top-pairing defenseman.

 

[Brobust]

Stepan comes here and his numbers tank. Kessel vomes here and his numbers tank. Keller and OEL's numbers tank when Tocchet arrived. Strome became a "bust" until he was traded away and immediately scores at a .7+ppg clip. Domi's numbers tanked when Tocchet arrived, until he went to Montreal and suddenly becomes a .7+ ppg center. Etc, etc

I think other GM's probably notice, and that more than a few notice he's still a top-pairing defenseman.

Was Rick Tocchet coaching the 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens, because Domi's numbers were pretty similar to what he put up in Arizona.

 

[_Del_]

Was Rick Tocchet coaching the 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens, because Domi's numbers were pretty similar to what he put up in Arizona.

9 goals and 45pts in 82 under Tocchet
17 goals and 44ps in 71 this year in Montreal

Need to completely ignore the 28-44-72 season the year before on top for that to make any sense

 

[rt]

Was Rick Tocchet coaching the 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens, because Domi's numbers were pretty similar to what he put up in Arizona.

Is there a point, here? I don’t see it.

 

[Brobust]

Is there a point, here? I don’t see it.

All I'm saying is that I don't trust the excuses and most people probably don't.

 

[Mr Positive]

OEL getting traded over money doesn't make sense. They already paid him 4 million in a bonus, so he's actually a great value contract atm, and moving it only makes it harder to reach the cap floor and have low spending.

Next season it is 10+ million without a bonus, so they'd want to trade him then if the goal is cutting spending. So, you could say they want to trade him now while they can, but why would they not be able to trade him next offseason? It's not like his value is high right now.

 

[rt]

All I'm saying is that I don't trust the excuses and most people probably don't.

The only opinions that matter are those that actually watch the games. Scouts and executives don’t have to believe anything other than what they can see and the observations of those in their organization that get paid to provide observations.

Knowing that, I’m not worried. Especially when Friedman, LeBrun, and others remind us every few days that there’s a sizable market for his services among NHL teams. They get this information by talking to the very same people I referenced above.

I fully anticipate that a bunch of fans online will look at some numbers and determine he’s worthless. But that’s irrelevant.

Friedman has said specifically that he was skeptical of the market due to the contract but after asking around and speaking to many sources around the league, he’s confident there’s a very competitive market for him. He’s also said he can’t get anyone in Arizona to talk. So this isn’t a narrative from the Coyotes.

There’s an extremely pronounced overlap of fans who don’t watch OEL play and those who think he’s worthless. It’s basically 1:1. And it’s not important.

 

[Brobust]

The only opinions that matter are those that actually watch the games. Scouts and executives don’t have to believe anything other than what they can see and the observations of those in their organization that get paid to provide observations.

Knowing that, I’m not worried. Especially when Friedman, LeBrun, and others remind us every few days that there’s a sizable market for his services among NHL teams. They get this information by talking to the very same people I referenced above.

I fully anticipate that a bunch of fans online will look at some numbers and determine he’s worthless. But that’s irrelevant.

Friedman has said specifically that he was skeptical of the market due to the contract but after asking around and speaking to many sources around the league, he’s confident there’s a very competitive market for him. He’s also said he can’t get anyone in Arizona to talk. So this isn’t a narrative from the Coyotes.

There’s an extremely pronounced overlap of fans who don’t watch OEL play and those who think he’s worthless. It’s basically 1:1. And it’s not important.

So if OEL doesn't get traded then it must mean that he's washed. According to the scouts.

 

[McVespa99]

Not if you have really busy, really good pro scouts that you trust.

Stat watchers and keyboard warriors might have different opinions, but I’m sure OEL is extremely well thought of by the pros who actually know what they’re talking about.

Im sure he is. I doubt the combination of his age and contract are well thought of though.

 

[rt]

OEL getting traded over money doesn't make sense. They already paid him 4 million in a bonus, so he's actually a great value contract atm, and moving it only makes it harder to reach the cap floor and have low spending.

Next season it is 10+ million without a bonus, so they'd want to trade him then if the goal is cutting spending. So, you could say they want to trade him now while they can, but why would they not be able to trade him next offseason? It's not like his value is high right now.

The Coyotes don’t have to worry about the cap floor. That’s not a concern.

Due to paid bonuses, there isn’t a player on the Coyotes still owed more for this next season than that four million that is owed to OEL.

In terms of actual cash obligations, he’s still their highest paid player for next season.

 

[rt]

So if OEL doesn't get traded then it must mean that he's washed. According to the scouts.

I don’t understand how anyone would draw that conclusion. I find the way you’ve expressed yourself here to be confusing. I cant seem understand your actual point.

In any event, I don’t really care. I trust Friedman and LeBrun’s sources much more than you, anyhow. Plus, the LeBrun and Friedman narratives have the added benefit of actually being coherent. Which is nice.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

I’ll believe those rumours when an actual trade happens. I do accept the Coyotes owner is short of money, but he still must spend to the cap floor. Having OEL helps him get to the cap floor.

They will be at the floor even with an OEL trade. This coming season he’s owed $4 million salary so they might not be in a rush to move him. Following season is $10 I believe and with 6 years left at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if they would be more than happy to get out of that deal

 

[BondraTime]

Travis Yost breaks down the decline of OEL and kills the notion that OEL is still a top pairing Dman eventhough he is massively paid like one.

Yost: Buyer beware if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is available - TSN.ca


Summary:

Goals Above Replacement- Measures the value of a players total contributes to his team.

* 66% is considered to be the cutline for a top pairing Dman

OEL

2015 - 100%
2016- 55%
2017- 91%
2018- 14%
2019- 52%

Analytic comparables of OEL in the last 2 years

2018- Hamhuis, Pionk, Cholowski, Kampfer
2019- Koekkek, Merril, Severson, Holl


Buyer Beware! owed 56 more million dollars! AAV of 8.25 until 2027

Another reason this kind of stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt

 

[_Del_]

They will be at the floor even with an OEL trade. This coming season he’s owed $4 million salary so they might not be in a rush to move him. Following season is $10 I believe and with 6 years left at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if they would be more than happy to get out of that deal

Yeah, he gets $20 million (total) years two and three. After that it's quite reasonable again, but I'm sure with everything else considered, they'll be extremely open to moving him before the two $10M seasons.

 

[rt]

They will be at the floor even with an OEL trade. This coming season he’s owed $4 million salary so they might not be in a rush to move him. Following season is $10 I believe and with 6 years left at that point I wouldn’t be surprised if they would be more than happy to get out of that deal

I haven’t yet found a good argument for waiting a year to trade OEL.

The Coyotes were absolutely run over by Colorado in the playoffs. It was maybe one of the two or three worst series losses I can recall. I’ve watched teams look much better while getting swept. I’ve seen teams look better getting swept without ever having a lead in a game.

They would not have even qualified for the playoffs, if not for the qualifying round format. They had the 10th worst percentage of possible points earned in the NHL last season.

That was with Taylor Hall who is the team’s best forward. He won’t be returning. So it makes sense to assume the team will be worse.

It isn’t just that the team wasn’t very good to begin with and that Hall is leaving. They also have to cut salary. The three highest paid players (in actual cash) on the team over the age of 25 are OEL, Goligoski, and Kuemper. The first two are minutes played leaders on the team, and the third is the team’s starting goalie who puts up elite level goaltending numbers.

If you wait a year to trade OEL, you can’t wait a year to trade Goligoski and Kuemper. What would be the point of keeping OEL around on a team that will lose Hall, Kuemper and Goligoski and replace them with players on ELCs they played in the AHL last season? What’s the point? How does that help?

 

[ole ole]

Would take oel 100 percent over edmondson but that ship has sailed sadly.

Sure would but not at the price they would want for him.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't think it's unreasonable to call 7 more years @8.25 for a struggling 29 year old a gamble. But at least come at it from a better angle.

 

[Double Dion]

I sure wouldn't trade for him. Flames are apparently interested. I hope we're on his no trade list.

 

[Oddbob]

Oh goodie, another Travis Yost useless bit where he talks about made up bologna that means next to nothing!

 

[cobra427]

OEL getting traded over money doesn't make sense. They already paid him 4 million in a bonus, so he's actually a great value contract atm, and moving it only makes it harder to reach the cap floor and have low spending.

Next season it is 10+ million without a bonus, so they'd want to trade him then if the goal is cutting spending. So, you could say they want to trade him now while they can, but why would they not be able to trade him next offseason? It's not like his value is high right now.

Good points, his value is low right now and he was already paid a bonus. Coyotes just hired a new GM as well.

The smart move will be to fire RT first, then bring in another coach. The new coach and new GM can evaluate the talent and decide what to do at the TDL or next summer if it is a major move. OEL has not played well under RT and he is not alone, many other players have had several down years, those trade, Strome/Domi/Martinook have had way better years elsewhere. OEL might play better under a new coach, might be enough for him to want to stay in AZ. If he still wants out at the TDL or next summer, trade him then.His value is likely higher if he plays better and if he doesn't, one more year of his contract is gone, so his value is not likely any less.

Hopefully the new GM is patient and thinks this through. To save money, I would fire sale other aging assets if I could, although in the cap world, you get some junk back either way.