TSN: Buyer beware if OEL is available

[McTonyBrar]

Travis Yost breaks down the decline of OEL and kills the notion that OEL is still a top pairing Dman eventhough he is massively paid like one.

Yost: Buyer beware if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is available - TSN.ca


Summary:

Goals Above Replacement- Measures the value of a players total contributes to his team.

* 66% is considered to be the cutline for a top pairing Dman

OEL

2015 - 100%
2016- 55%
2017- 91%
2018- 14%
2019- 52%

Analytic comparables of OEL in the last 2 years

2018- Hamhuis, Pionk, Cholowski, Kampfer
2019- Koekkek, Merril, Severson, Holl


Buyer Beware! owed 56 more million dollars! AAV of 8.25 until 2027

Yeah analytics yay they explain hockey players better than our eyes. I'd rather use what I see and what scouts see over this BS garbage numbers crap I see at work already

 

[McTonyBrar]

Doesn’t OEL have a full no move? Imo he’s still a top D man, but even if he isn’t he’s not going anywhere.

Oilers are already after him hard

 

[McTonyBrar]

I’ll believe those rumours when an actual trade happens. I do accept the Coyotes owner is short of money, but he still must spend to the cap floor. Having OEL helps him get to the cap floor.

That's not Arizonas problem. They don't have the money to pay him his money. That's the issue

 

[rt]

Good points, his value is low right now and he was already paid a bonus. Coyotes just hired a new GM as well.

The smart move will be to fire RT first, then bring in another coach. The new coach and new GM can evaluate the talent and decide what to do at the TDL or next summer if it is a major move. OEL has not played well under RT and he is not alone, many other players have had several down years, those trade, Strome/Domi/Martinook have had way better years elsewhere. OEL might play better under a new coach, might be enough for him to want to stay in AZ. If he still wants out at the TDL or next summer, trade him then.His value is likely higher if he plays better and if he doesn't, one more year of his contract is gone, so his value is not likely any less.

Hopefully the new GM is patient and thinks this through. To save money, I would fire sale other aging assets if I could, although in the cap world, you get some junk back either way.

Let’s say you need to cut 10 million in salary (cash) for next season. Here’s your major remaining commitments:

1. OEL - $4.00 mil
2. Goligoski - $4.0m
3. Grabner - $3.75m
4. Kuemper - $3.5m
5. Dvorak - $3.45mil
6. Chychrun - $3.3m
7. Schmaltz - $3.0m
8. Demers - $2.6mil
9. Keller - $2.50 mil
Stepan/Raanta/Hjammer-$2m

Who do you trade? Assume you have to pay the replacement player at least $1m in cash (we’ll call this an average).

Is it plausible to do this without moving OEL? And even if you can pull it off, why would you expect him to have a good season or want to stay? It’s going to be a REALLY bad team. I don’t see the point.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I sure wouldn't trade for him. Flames are apparently interested. I hope we're on his no trade list.

Flames got interested when they found out Edmonton is in on him. Treliving is like a cockroach

 

[Beerz]

mUh cHarTs!

 

[McShogun99]

Remember last season when advanced stats said that Nicushkin was a better player then Draisaitl

 

[belair]

IMO trading OEL now makes the most sense if that's the path Arizona's choosing to take. Personally I believe the best idea is sticking with your captain, but it's understandable how a poorer team would want to be rid of a $58m salary expenditure.

Right now half of OEL's salary for the year has been paid, so he's effectively only a $4m expense in the short-term. Additionally the Coyotes have an abundance of defensemen who will be shopped throughout the season in all likelihood. It would probably sweeten the return of assets like Goligoski, Hjalmarsson and Demers if they have a greater opportunity to play.

 

[belair]

When it comes to trade return though, I'm not convinced that Arizona will get anything close to market value for this player knowing that this is a 30 year old player owed a significant amount of money over a very long term. Teams are either cap-poor or cash-poor as a result of COVID, which limits the market for frivolous assets. OEL's trade protection and the coming expansion draft complicates things further. If I'm an opposing GM, I recognize these obstacles and find a way of fitting this contract into my payroll at my own convenience. What OEL brings to the table is secondary to that.

In all honesty, I think he ends up in New Jersey. And I don't think Arizona ends up with the types of prospects this asset would normally merit in a trade. From an Oiler fan's perspective, I wouldn't trade for him straight up for a single one of our defensemen today because his contract would wreak chaos on my team's future cap outlook.

Yost's GAR nonsense is so far from being important.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd still take this obviously useless player off the Yotes hands, for the Canucks. Would probably have to send them a bad contract like Eriksson to make the cap work, but i'm sure that after reading Mr Yosts irrefutable argument against OEL, they should be happy just to get that declining dead weight off their team, at any cost.

 

[RABBIT]

He's not working for us, but I'm sure he'll work for you guys isn't a great pitch. At least if you want some kind of value back.

literally happens all the time

 

[My3Sons]

When it comes to trade return though, I'm not convinced the Arizona will get anything close to market value for this player knowing that this is a 30 year old player owed a significant amount of money over a very long term. Teams are either cap-poor or cash-poor as a result of COVID, which limits the market for frivolous assets. OEL's trade protection and the coming expansion draft complicates things further. If I'm an opposing GM, I recognize these obstacles and find a way of fitting this contract into my payroll at my own convenience. What OEL brings to the table is secondary to that.

In all honesty, I think he ends up in New Jersey. And I don't think Arizona ends up with the types of prospects this asset would normally merit in a trade. From an Oiler fan's perspective, I wouldn't trade for him straight up for a single one of our defensemen today because his contract would wreak chaos on my team's future cap outlook.

Yost's GAR nonsense is so far from being important.

NJ traded for Subban last offseason to try to keep Hall happy and that backfired. They wouldn't move a first for Subban so it's hard to see them offering much more than a second and a decent but not great prospect for OEL. NJ GM Fitzgerald apparently drives a fairly hard bargain in trade talks if reporting is to be believed. My guess is that AZ would want back its first round pick and Bahl in a trade and NJ likely says no thanks. I'm not sure OEL can be moved at anything close to fair value this offseason.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I think he only waives to Edmonton to play for his old coach Dave Tippett.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Would take oel 100 percent over edmondson but that ship has sailed sadly.

That's nice, one costs over twice as much.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

That's nice, one costs over twice as much.

Ones also a top pairing lhd that we need. Rather have spent double the cap space and shipped out Alzner with picks to even out the cap. I'm pretty sure a team hurting for draft picks wouldn't mind getting a couple more hint hint....

 

[admiralcadillac]

Ones also a top pairing lhd that we need. Rather have spent double the cap space and shipped out Alzner with picks to even out the cap. I'm pretty sure a team hurting for draft picks wouldn't mind getting a couple more hint hint....

If we could have shipped out Alzner with picks we would have

When your solution involves no actual trade value going back and a trade that won't happen maybe you should take those factors in consideration?

 

[axlrose87]

The team needs to free up cash and to rebuild. OEL should not be on a rebuilding team at this stage of his career.

Fair enough but at what point does the perpetual rebuild come to an end? Shouldn’t they hold on to an actual good player they finally have signed to a long term contract?
This is either another pathetic salary dump by a franchise that doesn’t even pretend to try anymore or this is a player who has serious red flags..... or both.

 

[Dr Quincy]

2018- Hamhuis, Pionk, Cholowski, Kampfer
2019- Koekkek, Merril, Severson, Holl


Buyer Beware! owed 56 more million dollars! AAV of 8.25 until 2027

Another way to look at it is someone might get a relative bargain with Merrill.

 

[Schemp]

Fair enough but at what point does the perpetual rebuild come to an end? Shouldn’t they hold on to an actual good player they finally have signed to a long term contract?
This is either another pathetic salary dump by a franchise that doesn’t even pretend to try anymore or this is a player who has serious red flags..... or both.

When they reopen the casinos Nevada.

 

[AZviaNJ]

I think he only waives to Edmonton to play for his old coach Dave Tippett.

Or Calgary to play for his former GM's (Maloney and Treliving) or Montreal to pair with Weber or Boston where he could slot into Krug's former spot......he wants out.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Or Calgary to play for his former GM's (Maloney and Treliving) or Montreal to pair with Weber or Boston where he could slot into Krug's former spot......he wants out.

Yup any of those teams make perfect sense for OEL.

 

[rt]

Fair enough but at what point does the perpetual rebuild come to an end? Shouldn’t they hold on to an actual good player they finally have signed to a long term contract?
This is either another pathetic salary dump by a franchise that doesn’t even pretend to try anymore or this is a player who has serious red flags..... or both.

The rebuild just failed. It was executed poorly. They were in 1st place in December when they traded for Taylor Hall a year removed from an MVP season. Everything fell apart and our clueless ex-GM left us holding the bag.

Chayka stuck to his plan, and rebuild the team. When he was done, it sucked. Which didn’t compute. So he quit. GMBot1.0 was very buggy and is now offline.

 

[axlrose87]

The rebuild just failed. It was executed poorly. They were in 1st place in December when they traded for Taylor Hall a year removed from an MVP season. Everything fell apart and our clueless ex-GM left us holding the bag.

Chayka stuck to his plan, and rebuild the team. When he was done, it sucked. Which didn’t compute. So he quit. GMBot1.0 was very buggy and is now offline.

I agree with everything you are saying here but it still makes little sense to trade OEL.... unless there is more to it behind the scenes

 

[RemoAZ]

Take the C and Tocchet away from OEL and he's still a #1. Only reason I want him gone is he's a freaking diver. Hate that shit. I think he played with Mike Smith too long.

 

[rt]

I agree with everything you are saying here but it still makes little sense to trade OEL.... unless there is more to it behind the scenes

Give me a single good reason to keep him?