TSN: Buyer beware if OEL is available

[FreeMcdavid]

Travis Yost breaks down the decline of OEL and kills the notion that OEL is still a top pairing Dman eventhough he is massively paid like one.

Yost: Buyer beware if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is available - TSN.ca


Summary:

Goals Above Replacement- Measures the value of a players total contributes to his team.

* 66% is considered to be the cutline for a top pairing Dman

OEL

2015 - 100%
2016- 55%
2017- 91%
2018- 14%
2019- 52%

Analytic comparables of OEL in the last 2 years

2018- Hamhuis, Pionk, Cholowski, Kampfer
2019- Koekkek, Merril, Severson, Holl


Buyer Beware! owed 56 more million dollars! AAV of 8.25 until 2027

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[Empoleon8771]

GAR is a shit stat though. Didn't GAR say that Maatta was an elite defenseman last year?

Like I can understand using things like McCurdy's shot charts or xGF%, but GAR is a downright horrible stat to be the sole piece of data to evaluate players with. It's not nearly well developed enough.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Sure lol

 

[RABBIT]

He just doesn’t do well in Tocchet’s system. They have been at odds since day one. He’ll be just fine on a new team or under a new coach in AZ.

I would be interested in keeping him in AZ if we did hire a new coach, problem is that we need to recoup assets lost from John Chayka’s doing (Hall trade, combine violation sanctions.)

 

[FreeMcdavid]

He just doesn’t do well in Tocchet’s system. They have been at odds since day one. He’ll be just fine on a new team or under a new coach in AZ.

I would be interested in keeping him in AZ if we did hire a new coach, problem is that we need to recoup assets lost from John Chayka’s doing (Hall trade, combine violation sanctions.)

I think thats quite the gamble to trade for OEL in hopes it was the systems fault and not the player's fault in terms of a decline.

 

[rt]

He just doesn’t do well in Tocchet’s system. They have been at odds since day one. He’ll be just fine on a new team or under a new coach in AZ.

I would be interested in keeping him in AZ if we did hire a new coach, problem is that we need to recoup assets lost from John Chayka’s doing (Hall trade, combine violation sanctions.)

Correct.

 

[rt]

I think thats quite the gamble to trade for OEL in hopes it was the systems fault and not the player's fault in terms of a decline.

Not if you have really busy, really good pro scouts that you trust.

Stat watchers and keyboard warriors might have different opinions, but I’m sure OEL is extremely well thought of by the pros who actually know what they’re talking about.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

Would take oel 100 percent over edmondson but that ship has sailed sadly.

 

[Guttersniped]

OEL had knee issues in 2018-19 which led to knee surgery in the summer of 2019. In an interview during the bubble he said he was dealing with lingering issues during the regular season but felt fully healed after the break before the bubble games.

A GM will of course have to consider what exactly the issue with his knee was and whether it recur but the writer of this article could have googled OEL and “surgery” or “injury” and checked if there were other issues involved rather than just discussing the age curve.

 

[axlrose87]

Not if you have really busy, really good pro scouts that you trust.

Stat watchers and keyboard warriors might have different opinions, but I’m sure OEL is extremely well thought of by the pros who actually know what they’re talking about.

Why though?
And why is Arizona’s “franchise defenceman” (which they need more of, not less) available?
He is supposed to be good offensively but he hasn’t produced well in 5 years. Can’t be all the current coaches fault.

 

[Fatass]

Doesn’t OEL have a full no move? Imo he’s still a top D man, but even if he isn’t he’s not going anywhere.

 

[rt]

Why though?
And why is Arizona’s “franchise defenceman” (which they need more of, not less) available?
He is supposed to be good offensively but he hasn’t produced well in 5 years. Can’t be all the current coaches fault.

The team needs to free up cash and to rebuild. OEL should not be on a rebuilding team at this stage of his career.

 

[_Del_]

Why though?
And why is Arizona’s “franchise defenceman” (which they need more of, not less) available?

They are broke, and he's expensive. They are not very good, and probably won't be relevant in the next four or five years. They have no early draft picks, and are tight against the cap. He doesn't see eye-to-eye with the coach and is "open to" being traded.

He's one of the few pieces that is expendable for the aforementioned reasons who could also substantially reshape the face of the franchise in a trade.

I'd prefer a new coach than trading him below value, but it's pretty obvious why they are open to trading him beyond "he sucks now".

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Uh oh here come the analytics nerds

I think the problem is by any measure OEL simply hasn't been that good for quite sometime. The underlying metrics are poor, the stats aren't there, and he doesn't pass the eye test. He needs a change of scenery and would likely do significantly better on another team where he doesn't have to the captain and #1.

 

[go4hockey]

What next? The clown that put that together going to tell us who’s good and bad by using plus/minus

 

[RABBIT]

I think thats quite the gamble to trade for OEL in hopes it was the systems fault and not the player's fault in terms of a decline.

You’re not wrong, but someone will do it. Multiple teams might, and it’s happened many times before. Every trade labeled as a “change of scenery trade” is a risk. Some work out, some don’t. OEL and his contract may be an even higher risk thank normal when it comes to a scenery change, but he may be worth the gamble for teams trying to gain a competitive edge. The question is will the Coyotes accept the return that’s offered, as some teams may see the risk and offer less.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

GAR is a shit stat though. Didn't GAR say that Maatta was an elite defenseman last year?

Like I can understand using things like McCurdy's shot charts or xGF%, but GAR is a downright horrible stat to be the sole piece of data to evaluate players with. It's not nearly well developed enough.

Travis Yost is a horrible "journalist". He is good at using peoples ignorance of and inability to understand or contextualize statistics in order to make the point he wants to make, but nothing really beyond that.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Travis Yost is a horrible "journalist". He is good at using peoples ignorance of and inability to understand or contextualize statistics in order to make the point he wants to make, but nothing really beyond that.

Sounds like the typical HF poster! LOL!

 

[xECK29x]

Whatever nerds

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Sounds like the typical HF poster! LOL!

Wait - are you getting paid?!?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Wait - are you getting paid?!?

I should be based on the dreck that is out there!

 

[Mosby]

If your analytics draw stupid conclusions like this then your analytics are stupid.

 

[Szechwan]

If your analytics draw stupid conclusions like this then your analytics are stupid.

I mean it's not like he's looked like the OEL of old in the last couple seasons. He's looked pretty mediocre.

 

[batman8990]

Doesn’t OEL have a full no move? Imo he’s still a top D man, but even if he isn’t he’s not going anywhere.

You should've done some researches before writing down your comment. Both Friedman and Morgan have said that's the Coyotes owner who wants to get rid of OEL because he can't afford his contract anymore. Friedman has added that OEL is open to waive off his NMC for some teams around the league.

 

[Fatass]

You should've done some researches before writing down your comment. Both Friedman and Morgan have said that's the Coyotes owner who wants to get rid of OEL because he can't afford his contract anymore. Friedman has added that OEL is open to waive off his NMC for some teams around the league.

I’ll believe those rumours when an actual trade happens. I do accept the Coyotes owner is short of money, but he still must spend to the cap floor. Having OEL helps him get to the cap floor.