But it's not sustainable!!!

[TheThrill81*]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=pointPctg&viewName=summary

Have to take into account games played and ROW.

I did, which is why we're 11th and not 10th because the Wild have an ROW of 23 while ours is 20 in the same number of games played. Those games in hand are inconsequential until they've been played. No sense in dwelling on potential points, it's points already earned that matter in the end.

 

[markh100]

Out of curiosity, I dumped every team's wins and losses into a spreadsheet to see how the league stacks up in regards to +/- .500 when OTLs are considered losses. At +2, the Leafs would be a fringe playoff team at 14th overall, with Columbus taking the 16th spot over at .500. A couple more wins would put them solidly in the top 11, but it's a big step up from there.

 

[Patience]

Did the Stanley Cup wins for Montreal with Patrick Roy stealing games night after night count? Did the Stanley Cup win for Pittsburgh in 91 playing a wide open game count? Did the win for Tampa Bay in 2004 where they played an open style and came from a weak division count? Did the win for the even more erratic and wide open styled Carolina in 2006 count? Did New Jersey's wins still count even though they were won while having the advantage of effectively a 3rd defenseman playing in goal?

 

[Holymakinaw]

Did the Stanley Cup wins for Montreal with Patrick Roy stealing games night after night count? Did the Stanley Cup wins for Pittsburgh in 91 playing a wide open game count? Did the win for Tampa Bay in 2004 where they played an open style and came from a weak division count? Did the win for the even more erratic and wide open styled Carolina in 2006 count? Did New Jersey's wins still count even they were won while having the advantage of effectively a 3rd defenseman playing in goal?

Anything positive to do with any other team ALWAYS counts. It's only because it's the Leafs that it's now tainted, flawed, and of course, unsustainable.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Out of curiosity, I dumped every team's wins and losses into a spreadsheet to see how the league stacks up in regards to +/- .500 when OTLs are considered losses. At +2, the Leafs would be a fringe playoff team at 14th overall, with Columbus taking the 16th spot over at .500. A couple more wins would put them solidly in the top 11, but it's a big step up from there.

Yes, but doing this is 100% meaningless. The NHL doesn't let teams into the playoffs, or keep them from them, that way.

In the EAST, based on the POINTS we have, we are currently 4th overall. That's today's REALITY.

Edmonton looks right though.

 

[Patience]

Why is there no shootout in the playoffs?

There are no ties either. Making it to many OT's then winning is a way that many teams have won Stanley Cups.

Why do the rules of the sport change magically when the playoffs begin?.

The CBA is the reason.

Regular season success does not guarantee playoff success when you rely on an event that is no longer available to assist you to win.

Teams also don't get to play pushover opponents or a parade of different opponents either. The play is more physical and interference is allowed more. The playoffs are nothing like the regular season in many other ways than shootouts.

Major league baseball doesn't break out into a home run derby when the game goes into extra innings, nor does the NBA revert to a slam dunk competition when the score is tied after regulation.

This wasn't a debate about whether shootouts should be used or not. I actually don't like them but that doesn't mean they aren't currently part of the current rules of the game. I also despise trap style defensive hockey because it's boring hockey but that doesn't mean it isn't a way to win hockey games.

PS: At least Leafs don't have to be concerned about being outworked or outplayed in the shootout as everyone gets equal opportunities so SO wins help beat the odds of being outplayed for the first 65 minutes of the game.

If this disparity of "being outworked or outplayed" were such a huge issue, the team wouldn't get anywhere near the opportunities to achieve these "circus" wins after 65 minutes of NHL hockey.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I'm not proclaiming that we've won anything.

I'm saying that we have clearly sustained our winning over the last 104 games.

That's it.

"Analytics" have been wrong in the Leaf's case, for almost a season and a half.

Perhaps one day, it'll all catch up with us and analytics will be right. But that's a LARGE sample size to look at.........No?

In statistics, a sample size of 1,000 events is considered small, but large enough to cut out a lot of the random noise. Ideal is 10,000 or more events.

Not saying I disagree that the Leafs' success puts a wrench in the cogs of advanced analytics, I'm just saying that the claim that 104 games is a large sample size would be wrong.

My thoughts on advanced stats is that they are, in fact, wrong. I feel that they can only be correctly applied to specific teams and specific defensive/offensive systems, and no generically as a whole to all the teams.

I further posit that the Leafs play an anti-advanced stats system. They cluster down-low and in the centre, and force play to the wings and points. It gives the goalies ample time to make the saves. Furthermore, the goalies are instructed to redirect pucks to the centre, where the Leafs typically outnumber their opposition, allowing for recovery and transition.

Advanced stats treat all shots the same, so 15 shots from inside the blue paint and 15 shots from behind the other team's goal line are considered equal in calculations, which makes not a lick of sense. And that's why, IMO, advanced stats don't work universally.

 

[Mess]

Last time I checked the same rules applied to every team in the league. We should apologize for being very good at shootouts, when some others have not been?

It's a part of the game.

But your point is about beating the odds and non sustainable stats.

You need to use ROW (regulation/OT wins) (for all teams) only then, when using the wins-loss record to debate it.

You can't be outshot nor outplayed TOI/g in the SO as advanced corsi stats are not applicable during a shootout for these stats. So team wins can't be included that are direct results of it.

9 of Leafs 29 wins have come as a result of the SO. Leafs would have 9 less points if games ended in a tie. How would non sustainable team performance be without those 9 wins? 20 wins in 56 games is 35.7 % winning percentage of beating the odds of being outplayed.

 

[pooleboy]

I remember a time when people complained about the following

-Couldn't win in shootouts
-Couldn't out score the opposition
-Couldn't win games when they outshot the other teams
-Couldn't win games, consistently in the bottom of the standings
-Didn't have any top tier talent
-Didn't have good goaltending
-Didn't have good prospects or draft picks

And now we have people complaining about the way the Leafs win. The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in ages, in a playoff spot and yet it still isn't good enough for some people. People really forget other eras of this time because people only want to focus on the bad and have short term memories . The Leafs could still crash and burn, but it certainly has been nice that the tank nation fans have been awful quiet. I don't understand why people would want their own team to lose ,any sport outside of NA and you'd get pelted with bottles for saying that kind of crap

because in other major (soccer) u can just buy a new team, building a team in the nhl is different, drafting; and the best players in the draft go higher up...

 

[Holymakinaw]

But your point is about beating the odds and non sustainable stats.

You need to use ROW (regulation/OT wins) (for all teams) only then, when using the wins-loss record to debate it.

You can't be outshot nor outplayed TOI/g in the SO as advanced corsi stats are not applicable during a shootout for these stats. So team wins can't be included that are direct results of it.

9 of Leafs 29 wins have come as a result of the SO. Leafs would have 9 less points if games ended in a tie. How would non sustainable team performance be without those 9 wins?

You're overcomplicating it. It's very simple. I've been talking about puck possession and shots against, and how some have been calling our success "unsustainable". Well, they've proven that it's not, but amassing 29 wins and 64 points. They've won in regular time, gotten extra points in OT, and they've also won bonus/gimmick points in shootouts.

You're right that that shootout wins don't support any "corsi" arguments, but outside of those corsi arguments, the Leafs ALSO found ways to win. THAT'S the real argument, as far as I'm concerned.

I couldn't care less about corsi. It's meaningless to me.

It's simple, as far as I'm concerned.......the Leafs, despite some sloppy play, and being outshot on a regular basis, have been finding ways to WIN for several years now. That's not one big 'ol coincidence!!

They're a young, inexperienced, sometimes scary, but GOOD team.

And they're sustaining.

 

[Patience]

In statistics, a sample size of 1,000 events is considered small, but large enough to cut out a lot of the random noise. Ideal is 10,000 or more events.

So you're saying that every NHL season for every NHL team is statistically meaningless? It would take 12 1/2 seasons to reach 1000 games for any team. Over such a period, the majority of teams will be good, average and bad at various times, averaging out to be an average team. That's not actually much of a point at all. It makes sense that most teams over a longer period of time are average.

 

[Mess]

You're overcomplicating it. It's very simple. I've been talking about puck possession and shots against, and how some have been calling our success "unsustainable". Well, they've proven that it's not, but amassing 29 wins and 64 points. They've won in regular time, gotten extra points in OT, and they've also won bonus/gimmick points in shootouts.

You're right that that shootout wins don't support any "corsi" arguments, but outside of those corsi arguments, the Leafs ALSO found ways to win. THAT'S the real argument, as far as I'm concerned.

Its not complicated ..

You're debating the merits of beating corsi results and including the shootout in the overall results where they don't apply.

That's my point.

Also the shootout is not a part of the playoffs, so they will no longer be able to rely on winning games post season using this method either. Then true Corsi (outshot and outplayed) would apply accurately to the end results.

 

[Tak7]

This whole thing depends on how you choose to analyze the Leafs this season.

For many, the sole focus will be on results and that's fine.

But for others, including myself, a look at how the team is playing and considering what the team does well / poorly is very important.

This is a team that is constantly outshot and outplayed on most nights, and if not for solid goaltending and very timely scoring, we could be in a pretty miserable position in the standings.

While I'm pleased with how the team are doing in the standings currently, this team's style of play and bad habits, from their play in their own to their turnovers to lack of a consistent cycle game, will come back and bite them in the butt come playoff time.

I don't think you can be successful in the playoffs, by playing the brand of hockey we are playing.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

There really is no medium point with any of you is there?

Leafs winning to start the season. Corsi sucks. What is advanced stats anyways. Lupul for Team Canada. Reimer for Team Canada. Bank on it, Leafs are getting elite goaltending for the rest of the season

Leafs start losing. Sky is falling. Trade everyone. Looks like Corsi was going to catch up on us at some point. Reimer and Bernier are both garbage. Bolland is our true MVP. Whats wrong with Kessel?

Leafs winning. Proving Corsi wrong again.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Its not complicated ..

You're debating the merits of beating corsi results and including the shootout in the overall results where they don't apply.

That's my point.

Also the shootout is not a part of the playoffs, so they will no longer be able to rely on winning games post season using this method either. Then true Corsi (outshot and outplayed) would apply accurately to the end results.

The playoffs are a different beast. And again, I still don't care about corsi. Come playoff time, I care about how my team looks, how much heart they show, and how determined they are to clear a puck, etc. In the playoffs, ANYTHING can happen.

Up until that last 10 minutes against Boston, we were the better team, for more than one game too. Youth, inexperience, and lack of confidence killed us in the end, but "taking it up a few notches" and having "heart" in the playoffs also makes corsi stuff useless.

As for regular season, I still debate the merits of beating corsi. We had to beat corsi to make it OT in every one of the games we got "gimmick points" in.

 

[hatterson]

In statistics, a sample size of 1,000 events is considered small, but large enough to cut out a lot of the random noise. Ideal is 10,000 or more events.

What? That's entirely depends on what you're looking at.

There is no number that is magically considered "Ideal" for a sample size for every situation.

 

[Holymakinaw]

There really is no medium point with any of you is there?

Leafs winning to start the season. Corsi sucks. What is advanced stats anyways. Lupul for Team Canada. Reimer for Team Canada. Bank on it, Leafs are getting elite goaltending for the rest of the season

Leafs start losing. Sky is falling. Trade everyone. Looks like Corsi was going to catch up on us at some point. Reimer and Bernier are both garbage. Bolland is our true MVP. Whats wrong with Kessel?

Leafs winning. Proving Corsi wrong again.

Meh. I ALWAYS laughed at corsi, even when we were losing. It's fine for stop/start baseball. But for a game like hockey, with it's passion and emotions and hitting and flow/speed changes.........it's useless, in my opinion.

 

[Pi]

But your point is about beating the odds and non sustainable stats.

You need to use ROW (regulation/OT wins) (for all teams) only then, when using the wins-loss record to debate it.

You can't be outshot nor outplayed TOI/g in the SO as advanced corsi stats are not applicable during a shootout for these stats. So team wins can't be included that are direct results of it.

9 of Leafs 29 wins have come as a result of the SO. Leafs would have 9 less points if games ended in a tie. How would non sustainable team performance be without those 9 wins? 20 wins in 56 games is 35.7 % winning percentage of beating the odds of being outplayed.

Shootouts have been in the league for a long time.

When the Leafs don't win them: Leafs have to do better at shootouts.
When the Leafs win: They are just winning because of the shootouts.

Media criticizes them if they win or lose in SO's.

As far as I am concerned, I'll take the points but the Leafs have to play at least 10x better if the thought of ever competing for the Cup has crossed their minds.

Bernier cannot keep playing at this pace. It's impossible.

It is very likely that Bernier will suffer the same fate as Price in the coming months if the Leafs don't improve their play.

Price is playing well but the team in front of him has sucked for the better part of 3 months.

Leafs themselves won like 3 in ROW out of 29 games...they aren't a good team but they can be a better team than they have shown.

It will be sad to see everyone criticize Bernier when he eventually has 4-5 straight games where he allows 4-5 goals each night instead of looking at the root of the problem.

Our coaching is still not good, our forwards are lazy and our defense is nonchalant as well.

 

[Tak7]

There really is no medium point with any of you is there?

Leafs winning to start the season. Corsi sucks. What is advanced stats anyways. Lupul for Team Canada. Reimer for Team Canada. Bank on it, Leafs are getting elite goaltending for the rest of the season

Leafs start losing. Sky is falling. Trade everyone. Looks like Corsi was going to catch up on us at some point. Reimer and Bernier are both garbage. Bolland is our true MVP. Whats wrong with Kessel?

Leafs winning. Proving Corsi wrong again.

Wasn't it Bowman that came up with this quote:

"You are never as bad as you think you are after a loss, and never as good as you think you are after a win"

Or something like that?

That really needs to apply to the fanbase.

Personally I'm surprised and disappointed at how many fans are simply willing to overlook the glaring issues with this team just because they are putting up Ws.

What makes it even more perplexing is that after the Winter Classic, when the team went on a slump, Carlyle's job didn't seem all that secure and many here were calling for the team to fire him.

 

[mashedpotato]

The last two years running, we have had winning records. That is not proof that we are going to win anything in the post-season, but it IS proof that we have consistently been able to post winning regular season records, for several years now. As of right now......It's a fact, Jack.

There's a difference between historical fact and expected results - we've been doing what we've been doing for the last two years and we've had results.

I can't say that because it's happened two years in a row that it's going to happen again this, next year because at any night we are getting outshot and our defensive zone coverage is not-so-good. This is fact.

Multiply this fact by any night and you've got an unpredictable set of results.

Conversely, the team can have great success and win and still be out shot so, I can't say that we're any closer to determining the consistency of this teams success.

 

[I Believe]

Gotta play better defence, no doubt about it. I don't think anyone's calling us an elite team at the moment, we're simply not there yet.

However, this whole "If Leafs goaltending and scoring were worse they'd be lower in the standings" argument, how does that not apply to every other team? i don't get how people make this out to be a Toronto problem. I don't see why our record isn't sustainable, I look at this team and I see a lot more guys underachieving right now then overachieving.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Gotta play better defence, no doubt about it. I don't think anyone's calling us an elite team at the moment, we're simply not there yet.

However, this whole "If Leafs goaltending and scoring were worse they'd be lower in the standings" argument, how does that not apply to every other team? i don't get how people make this out to be a Toronto problem. I don't see why our record isn't sustainable, I look at this team and I see a lot more guys underachieving right now then overachieving.

That's the DOUBLE truth, Ruth.

Just wait until we get Bolland back, and make a trade for another shut-down defenceman......

Gotta get pretty fun around here.

 

[leafs in five]

Yes, of course. Their 29 wins, points gained in 35 games played, 64 overall points, and current playoff spot is a wee clue of that.

they've had some sustained stretches of success, win streaks the likes of which we haven't seen in years in TO. there was also a two month streak of positively dreadful play. i can't argue against the idea that the Leafs have had a successful season but they've hardly been consistent in getting here.

 

[Patience]

What? That's entirely depends on what you're looking at.

There is no number that is magically considered "Ideal" for a sample size for every situation.

Further to that, when you're talking about whether or not a current team is a winning team in the NHL during the regular season, there's no more complete statistics than the results of a full season. His 1000 data points might apply to the question "Has this been a good franchise in the past decade?"

 

[Mess]

The playoffs are a different beast. And again, I still don't care about corsi. Come playoff time, I care about how my team looks, how much heart they show, and how determined they are to clear a puck, etc. In the playoffs, ANYTHING can happen.

Up until that last 10 minutes against Boston, we were the better team, for more than one game too. Youth, inexperience, and lack of confidence killed us in the end, but "taking it up a few notches" and having "heart" in the playoffs also makes corsi stuff useless.

As for regular season, I still debate the merits of beating corsi. We had to beat corsi to make it OT in every one of the games we got "gimmick points" in.

If the Leafs are getting outplayed and outshot and out chanced in the playoffs on a regular basis then their odds of winning is decreased. The better the opponent the greater the odds of success become, particularly with no SO to bail the team out. Live by the sword, die by the sword essentially.

Strong goaltending can mask poor corsi results based on goalie sv%. Jonathan Bernier has the 6th best sv% in the NHL at .926 and that is reflective of facing a large number of shots against forcing saves in wins. The 1300+ shots against (Top 5 in the NHL) he has faced reflected in the Corsi figures.

Your trying to beat Corsi results by using an apples argument wins-losses and points to dispute it, but using an apples (ROW) and oranges (SO wins) rebuttal to prove it. Your methodology is faulty for what you're attempting to prove. If you can successful do it using apples only them mission accomplished.

Wouldn't you prefer the Leafs to be outplaying, outshooting and outworking opponents and winning as opposed to beating Corsi odds regularly to accomplish it?. Essentially wouldn't you prefer to be good rather than lucky?