But it's not sustainable!!!

[Holymakinaw]

Omg, the Leafs got outshot AGAIN last night!!!

The team is consistently outshot and out-possessed. Their advanced stats are HORRIBLE. Their corsi is terrible, and their PDO(luck) is way too high. Their coaching strategies are ineffective. They'll NEVER be able to sustain this, and it's all going to come crashing down soon enough.

Or is it?

Last year, the Leafs went 26-17-5. So far this season, they're 29-21-6.

So over the last 104 games - a full season + 22 games - they're 55-38-11.

I think they've sustained. Don't you?

Against all odds, the Leafs have already PROVEN that advanced stats in hockey are sometimes totally wrong. Their record over such a LARGE sample size proves this. Done deal. There is no more doubt about it, IMO.

Do they need to stop playing such crappy defence, and cut down on shots? Of course!! The playoffs are coming and it would be sensible to play perfect hockey, going into them.

But good goaltending and a great top line can win you regular season games in the east conference these days. A lot of them.

Fact.

Click to read more...

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

You should probably save this for when we actually accomplish something

 

[Vexed]

I am not an advocate of advanced stats but I will say that its too early to get all high and mighty.

We watched 2 months of terrible play results based on the same sort of play and there is nothing preventing us having the same terrible 2 months to end the season.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

 

[jmart21]

The issue I have with the "sure you won a few games, but its not sustainable" argument is that what happened last game has absolutely no effect on what'll happen next game. Every 60mins starts fresh.

 

[Warden of the North]

Not going to debate stats but i do find it curious that some people say "Leafs only win because of a hot first line and great goaltending", like its somehow a bad thing to have those. If any other team wins for those reasons no one even blinks, heck they even commend them.

 

[Banic]

So in 104 games they are 6 games above 500 (assuming that a "tie" is still a loss technically). I would not say that is great hockey as much as it is a conference with a lot of questionable hockey teams.

I am not a fan of advance stats but I definitely wouldn't say the Leafs are "proving them wrong"

 

[Holymakinaw]

You should probably save this for when we actually accomplish something

I'm not proclaiming that we've won anything.

I'm saying that we have clearly sustained our winning over the last 104 games.

That's it.

"Analytics" have been wrong in the Leaf's case, for almost a season and a half.

Perhaps one day, it'll all catch up with us and analytics will be right. But that's a LARGE sample size to look at.........No?

 

[Tak7]

It's an interesting point.

The reason why the question of sustainability is brought up, is purely because of the fact that of those 55 games, MANY of them have been won because one of the team's goaltenders was 1 of the game's top 3 stars.

Right now the Leafs are like a massive home, built on a toothpick.If that toothpick cracks and is broken, then everything crumbles. That toothpick represents the Leafs goaltending.

We are a team that relies massively on goaltending, I think last night against Florida is probably the first time since the win over Chicago, where the Leafs haven't had to rely on their goaltender to pull out a win.

I think people's fears were realized in that stint after the Winter Classic, on just what happens to this team when their goaltenders suffer a regression (even if it was a minor, short term one). They become a terrible hockey club.

There's nothing wrong with relying on goaltending - pull a starting goaltender out of 25 or 26 NHL cities, and their team will struggle. But that goes to the importance of having two guys in Reimer and Bernier that can do the job for this team.

People need to remember as well, that Bernier is playing in his first "full" NHL season, and is getting into uncharted waters regarding games played and shots against. While he's been remarkable, no one knows how he's going to handle the stress, especially if we are talking playoff hockey.

That's why it baffles me when I hear people talking about trading Reimer at the deadline, etc.

 

[ConnorTO]

blah blah blah complain blah

 

[Holymakinaw]

Right now the Leafs are like a massive home, built on a toothpick.

You are not wrong.

But almost every single team in the NHL is a home built on a toothpick, as far as their goaltending is concerned.

And I agree........keep Reimer for sure.

 

[The Caveman]

The team has D issues but has shown over the last 2 years have shown that they can score, and at key moments.

I opn't disagree with the advanced stats, they do underline a team weakness, but they are not everything.

I just want to read Mirtle retract his "Bozak was a bad contract" statement. Mea Culpa time James!

 

[Vexed]

What I hate is when people say you only won because of 'X' player(s)..

well ya, its a hockey team. You only ever win because of a couple players stepping it up over 60 minutes. Good teams either have ultimate consistency from top players ala Pittsbrugh or depth so that there are different players stepping up every night ala Boston

 

[Coatsy79]

Not going to debate stats but i do find it curious that some people say "Leafs only win because if a hot first line and great goaltending", like its somehow a bad thing to have those. If any other team wins for those reasons no one even blinks, heck they even commend them.

Fully agree with this, like your first line is supposed to be rubbish and you meant to have poor goaltending and still win

 

[Mess]

Getting outplayed and outshot on a regular basis and bailed out by the goalie is all about lack of effort and there is no excuse for that.

It shouldn't be about beating despite the odds consistently, it should be about changing their own play and compete levels to stop it from happening. Particularly when your 30th and last in shot differential with hopes of playoffs.

Its the difference between contenders and pretenders.

 

[i1]

Sounds like a young highly skilled team learning defensive discipline to me...

 

[TheThrill81*]

Getting outplayed and outshot on a regular basis and bailed out by the goalie is all about lack of effort and there is no excuse for that.

It shouldn't be about beating despite the odds consistently, it should be about changing their own play and compete levels to stop it from happening. Particularly when your 30th and last in shot differential with hopes of playoffs.

Its the difference between contenders and pretenders.

So in theory, the Devils are contenders because they have the lowest SA/G in the whole league?

 

[Vexed]

So in theory, the Devils are contenders because they have the lowest SA/G in the whole league?

That's the problem with stats.

Its not the numbers that are in question but the analysis. In all fields of study people use cherry-picked statistics to try and prove their own agenda and very rarely do they take in all relevant stats to get the actual truth. We are all inherently bias

 

[TheThrill81*]

That's the problem with stats.

Its not the numbers that are in question but the analysis. In all fields of study people use cherry-picked statistics to try and prove their own agenda and very rarely do they take in all relevant stats to get the actual truth. We are all inherently bias

I try to establish context whenever using stats, otherwise there's no point in using them.

 

[KuleminFan41]

I remember a time when people complained about the following

-Couldn't win in shootouts
-Couldn't out score the opposition
-Couldn't win games when they outshot the other teams
-Couldn't win games, consistently in the bottom of the standings
-Didn't have any top tier talent
-Didn't have good goaltending
-Didn't have good prospects or draft picks

And now we have people complaining about the way the Leafs win. The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in ages, in a playoff spot and yet it still isn't good enough for some people. People really forget other eras of this time because people only want to focus on the bad and have short term memories . The Leafs could still crash and burn, but it certainly has been nice that the tank nation fans have been awful quiet. I don't understand why people would want their own team to lose ,any sport outside of NA and you'd get pelted with bottles for saying that kind of crap

 

[TheThrill81*]

I remember a time when people complained about the following

-Couldn't win in shootouts
-Couldn't out score the opposition
-Couldn't win games when they outshot the other teams
-Couldn't win games, consistently in the bottom of the standings
-Didn't have any top tier talent
-Didn't have good goaltending
-Didn't have good prospects or draft picks

And now we have people complaining about the way the Leafs win. The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in ages, in a playoff spot and yet it still isn't good enough for some people. People really forget other eras of this time because people only want to focus on the bad and have short term memories . The Leafs could still crash and burn, but it certainly has been nice that the tank nation fans have been awful quiet. I don't understand why people would want their own team to lose ,any sport outside of NA and you'd get pelted with bottles for saying that kind of crap

My personal favourite are the ex-Leafs fans.

 

[Mess]

So in theory, the Devils are contenders because they have the lowest SA/G in the whole league?

They are not getting outworked and outplayed, they're simply losing on talent level. Kovalchuk packed his bags and left for the KHL and left the team with big shoes to fill talent wise.

I personally would rather outwork and outplay my opponents and then if you lose you have given 100% effort. Being proud of being outplayed and still winning with less than 100% effort is really nothing to be proud of because you deserve to lose but are beating the odds.

Winners never quit and quitters never win.

 

[ULF_55]

29 wins
27 losses

.571 winning

Bottom tier defensively

Middle tier team overall

Not exactly a bragging point anywhere.

 

[Patience]

Apart from the most important reason that I'm a diehard fan, I'd love to see the Leafs hoist the Cup this season to destroy the stats geeks' world.

 

[mcfifty]

I remember a time when people complained about the following

-Couldn't win in shootouts
-Couldn't out score the opposition
-Couldn't win games when they outshot the other teams
-Couldn't win games, consistently in the bottom of the standings
-Didn't have any top tier talent
-Didn't have good goaltending
-Didn't have good prospects or draft picks

And now we have people complaining about the way the Leafs win. The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in ages, in a playoff spot and yet it still isn't good enough for some people. People really forget other eras of this time because people only want to focus on the bad and have short term memories . The Leafs could still crash and burn, but it certainly has been nice that the tank nation fans have been awful quiet. I don't understand why people would want their own team to lose ,any sport outside of NA and you'd get pelted with bottles for saying that kind of crap

For real! I remember under RW sometimes we would get 40-50 shots, and only get 1 or 2 goals out of it. I wish advanced stats would take into consideration quality of shots and scoring chances (maybe they do?). I could care less if we get outshot, if they are perimeter plays that 99% of goaltenders would save no problem anyways. We are winning because we can finish, and the teams out shooting us can't. Enjoy it folks, as I have stated many times I am SUPER excited to be a leaf fan now!

 

[Patience]

I try to establish context whenever using stats, otherwise there's no point in using them.

That sounds suspiciously like "I cherry pick stats".