SmokeyClause said:
Agreed, he fell because he was boom or bust.
In my opinion, forward drafted 10-20, that is 6'4 or bigger is a bust. That includes Jessiman. No list is complete without Hugh. Here's why...
http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=85137&highlight=Riihijarvi
To be honest I think that is pretty weak. I accept Jessiman is a boom or bust but I'm not going to accept that if a player is over 6'4 he will be that much more of a risk then a guy who is an amazing 2 inches shorter.
Heights taken from THN.
Heatley - 6'3 --> #2 overall 2000
Thornton - 6'4 --> #1 overall 1997
Glen Murray -6'3 --> #18 overall 1991
Staal - 6'3 --> #2 overall 2003
Daze - 6'6 --> #90 overall 1993
Nash - 6'4 --> #1 overall 2002
Arnott - 6'4 --> #7 overall 1993
Modano - 6'3 --> #1 overall 1988
Shanahan - 6'3 --> #2 overall 1987
Jokinen - 6'3 --> #3 overall 1997
Frolov - 6'4 --> #20 overall 2000
Yashin - 6'3 --> #2 overall 1992
Lindros - 6'4 --> #1 overall 1991
Holik - 6'4 --> #10 overall 1989
Nedved - 6'3 --> #2 overall 1990
Bonk - 6'3 --> #3 overall 1994
Primeau - 6'5 --> #3 overall 1990
Leclair - 6'3 --> #33 overall 1987
Lemieux - 6'4 --> #1 overall 1984
Lecavalier - 6'4 --> #1 overall 1998
Modin - 6'4 --> #64 overall 1994
Sundin - 6'4 --> #1 overall 1989
Bertuzzi - 6'3 --> #23 overall 1993
Here are a few players that I think have had good careers or are going to have good careers. your idea of 10 - 20 is strange as each year the draft talent level is different and so guys will be moved up or down depending upon the year.
Glen Murray
Alexander frolov
Bobby Holik
Were they all bad picks? Lucky Bertuzzi dropped to 23 as he could have been a dud if it wasnt for those extra 3 positions. I except you have found a correlation, what i dont accept is your theory that all players taken in that golden 10 spot group will be busts and those outside will be ok. To me it is a coincedence, nothing more.
You can reel off all the players that are 6'4 and suck but I dont think that anybody would use that as an indication for future drafts. You have busts with players of all sizes, It's just larger guys for some reason are built up to be the next Lemieux and when they become a 50 point second liner are considered busts.