Building A Contender (fingers crossed) - Draft & Develop VS. Trade & Sign

[Randy Randerson]

The only reason to value the draft process is because no team in its right mind will give you all the pieces you need to win a championship through trade... and on paper it looks like we've done pretty well stocking on some unique prospects the past few years.

That said, if we have to trade for Drew Doughty one day or something like that to complete the puzzle, I'm not going to like him any less because we didn't draft him.

I think even in the pre-cap era you had to get pieces from each avenue, but the cap has definitely placed more emphasis on the draft.

If we continue to draft high&well, maybe we'll even have the assets to trade for Mr. Doughty and keep a solid core of players around him

 

[Mess]

It's nice to finally have a management group that doesn't chase instant gratification, and amazing how fast lady luck smiled on us - our first full season of a tear down resulting in a first overall pick in a year with a Franchise-to-Near-Generational upside Centre available. The abandonment of trying to draft low ceiling/high floor players I think has also helped, we certainly have some guys in the pipeline now who's stock has risen dramatically since their drafts.

I think the win-now segment of Leafs Nation will come around when they get to see the kids start to play, even this year before the team is good, because at least the results of being bad will be tangible on the ice. I still have a friend who wants to see them trade the prospects to go after a cup right away (including the big 3 if necessary), but I've definitely seen a change in the attitude of most of the leaf fans I know and they now seem content to wait and watch en route to a sustainable contender. I guess there's no guarantees that it works, but outside of Edmonton it seems to have worked for everyone and I think even the Oilers will have to get really good with all of those high picks.

For me this has always been an easy side of the debate to pick based simple on the understanding that if you draft and develop your own team you control your own destiny through your actions and your scouting abilities.

If you therefore play for a high draft pick by positioning the roster to finish low (accepting the consequences of draft rebuild) you get to step up to the podium and draft your #1C Matthews and fill a key core building block.

However if you think "draft schmaft" and you can sign and trade your way to success, then you were holding your breath for the last 2 years thinking Stamkos was going to come home and fill that #1C spot on your team. You have zero control over what happens with who might hit the market in trade or UFA and your destiny is in the hands of others and uncontrollable for you.

Shanny taking the smart and controllable draft your core now has all of Leaf Nation excited with cheering for Matthews. I'm 1 million % on board with "play the kids".. I'm also so thankful that our new management team didn't put all their eggs in the uncontrollable basket of killing time banking on Stamkos to come and lead the team forward and we would be left wheel spinning now going nowhere.

Drafting and developing You control the process, you simply hire the best people and the go up the podium and announce who you are proud to select with your draft pick. While Signing/Trading You Don't Control the process and are at the mercy of others to effect your future based on what becomes available or when it does and at what cost to obtain it.. This is the core basis for Building success verses trying to Buy success in that understanding.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

That's the way I think too, seems like we're the minority though

Don't review his post history after the playoff season and the moves he supported unless you wish to be disappointed.

 

[Randy Randerson]

For me this has always been an easy side of the debate to pick based simple on the understanding that if you draft and develop your own team you control your own destiny through your actions and your scouting abilities.

If you therefore play for a high draft pick by positioning the roster to finish low (accepting the consequences of draft rebuild) you get to step up to the podium and draft your #1C Matthews and fill a key core building block.

However if you think "draft schmaft" and you can sign and trade your way to success, then you were holding your breath for the last 2 years thinking Stamkos was going to come home and fill that #1C spot on your team. You have zero control over what happens with who might hit the market in trade or UFA and your destiny is in the hands of others and uncontrollable for you.

Shanny taking the smart and controllable draft your core now has all of Leaf Nation excited with cheering for Matthews. I'm 1 million % on board with "play the kids".. I'm also so thankful that our new management team didn't put all their eggs in the uncontrollable basket of killing time banking on Stamkos to come and lead the team forward and we would be left wheel spinning now going nowhere.

Drafting and developing You control the process, you simply hire the best people and the go up the podium and announce who you are proud to select with your draft pick. While Signing/Trading You Don't Control the process and are at the mercy of others to effect your future based on what becomes available or when it does and at what cost to obtain it.. This is the core basis for Building success verses trying to Buy success in that understanding.

It will be nice to have an excess of young, controllable assets to make a contender really sustainable as well - like Teravainen in Chicago. Makes it easier to dump bad salary or upgrade when its needed for a playoff run.

The fanbase seemed to be ok with this being a rebuilding year, but I know the TV numbers were way down. Hoping that this year and going forward we get those back up - always good to reward corporate ownership for making good decisions, or at least not punish them for having the long view, so the next time you're in the rebuild part of the cycle they don't try to put it off by mortgaging the future again

 

[Mess]

It will be nice to have an excess of young, controllable assets to make a contender really sustainable as well - like Teravainen in Chicago. Makes it easier to dump bad salary or upgrade when its needed for a playoff run.

The fanbase seemed to be ok with this being a rebuilding year, but I know the TV numbers were way down. Hoping that this year and going forward we get those back up - always good to reward corporate ownership for making good decisions, or at least not punish them for having the long view, so the next time you're in the rebuild part of the cycle they don't try to put it off by mortgaging the future again

Bell/Rogers was very smart to allow Shanny to scorch the earth and draft rebuild and take their lumps financially and in the ratings.

They clearly understand or believe that sometimes its better to take a few steps back believing it will be the basis for and be rewarded with a significant steps forward by building and assembling your own core through the draft.

You only have to look at Chicago (Toews, Kane, Keith etc)., LA (Doughty, Kopitar, Quick), Pens (Crosby, Malkin, Letang), and recent Stanley Cup winners (the ultimate goal) and see that winning teams draft and develop their own cores and reach success via team building strategy.

In a Cap World more then ever cheap entry level contracts and controllable costs of young star players are vital to long-term success. A slap happy trade and UFA signing strategy grabbing what you can, when you can at high prices and cap hits is simply spending harder and not smarter and shortcuts seldom if ever work when you try buy instead of build success.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Bell/Rogers was very smart to allow Shanny to scorch the earth and draft rebuild and take their lumps financially and in the ratings.

They clearly understand or believe that sometimes its better to take a few steps back believing it will be the basis for and be rewarded with a significant steps forward by building and assembling your own core through the draft.

You only have to look at Chicago (Toews, Kane, Keith etc)., LA (Doughty, Kopitar, Quick), Pens (Crosby, Malkin, Letang), and recent Stanley Cup winners (the ultimate goal) and see that winning teams draft and develop their own cores and reach success via team building strategy.

In a Cap World more then ever cheap entry level contracts and controllable costs of young star players are vital to long-term success. A slap happy trade and UFA signing strategy grabbing what you can, when you can at high prices and cap hits is simply spending harder and not smarter and shortcuts seldom if ever work when you try buy instead of build success.

I don't think there's a real example of a true rebuild not working in the cap era, at least in making the team competitive and giving them a shot at contending. I know Edmonton is supposed to be the example of it failing, but looking at the pieces they've got its hard to imagine them not pulling out of it regardless of how badly the team is managed...and the longer they bottom dwell, the more of those pieces they accumulate. I guess that's the point of the inverse-standing basis for the draft order, but even with the lottery component added the bottom teams still keep piling up high picks. I really think its the only way to get core pieces in the cap era in a cost efficient enough manner to build a contender. Its actually pretty amazing how fast we seem to have accumulated a top 5 farm system - Nylander was in the system before the term "scorched earth" got to the media, Marner a few months after it came out, then a first overall pick in the first real rebuild year - I think we've actually been incredibly lucky already - instant dividends from being smart . I guess we should be prepared for some of the prospects not to turn out (like Skille and Barker in Chicago) but we're probably adding a really high pick again next year then there's always the chance of home runs in later rounds.

I don't mind supplementing with UFA's if the right assets are available, Chicago seemed to do that well with Hossa and struck before they were buying UFA years from their drafted core players.

Either way, really happy that the new management group is making smart moves and being patient, and have no problem watching/supporting a sub-.500 team in the process

 

[Menzinger]

The only reason to value the draft process is because no team in its right mind will give you all the pieces you need to win a championship through trade... and on paper it looks like we've done pretty well stocking on some unique prospects the past few years.

That said, if we have to trade for Drew Doughty one day or something like that to complete the puzzle, I'm not going to like him any less because we didn't draft him.

I agree that I don't necessarily value a traded player less - for me it's mainly about $.

The draft also allows you to have prime talent on RFA or even ELC deals. Keeps the cost of elite talent down in the hard capped world.

 

[Mess]

The only reason to value the draft process is because no team in its right mind will give you all the pieces you need to win a championship through trade... and on paper it looks like we've done pretty well stocking on some unique prospects the past few years.

That said, if we have to trade for Drew Doughty one day or something like that to complete the puzzle, I'm not going to like him any less because we didn't draft him.

I guess the true test of this position is how one would resolve their feelings if the Leafs bundled say Matthews and Rielly for Norris trophy winner Doughty.

If someone has no problem dealing high-end kids/prospects & picks etc in a package for a player of Doughty's level then that certainly would mean a trade or sign position is one they support and endorse. If that is something they wouldn't support then they would be in the draft and develop and stay the course crowd.

 

[Menzinger]

I guess the true test of this position is how one would resolve their feelings if the Leafs bundled say Matthews and Rielly for Norris trophy winner Doughty.

If someone has no problem dealing high-end kids/prospects & picks etc in a package for a player of Doughty's level then that certainly would mean a trade or sign position is one they support and endorse. If that is something they wouldn't support then they would be in the draft and develop and stay the course crowd.

It depends on if the deal is fair or not - Matthews is perhaps likely to be the best player in that deal long term. Doughty's best years are likely behind him.

Would anybody be made at say a Dermott + Bracco for Trouba type deal? Doubtful.

 

[Stephen]

I guess the true test of this position is how one would resolve their feelings if the Leafs bundled say Matthews and Rielly for Norris trophy winner Doughty.

If someone has no problem dealing high-end kids/prospects & picks etc in a package for a player of Doughty's level then that certainly would mean a trade or sign position is one they support and endorse. If that is something they wouldn't support then they would be in the draft and develop and stay the course crowd.

The big picture here is we're trying to assemble a core. So if you can add to the core without moving out other pieces of the core, then it should be done. In the case for moving out Matthews or Rielly to get a Drew Doughty, you have to think about the age of the players involved, contracts and how likely you are to replace what you're giving away. If the deal is a net positive, you should do it.

Maybe in a couple of years time we'll have surplus prospects like Nolan Patrick, Kasperi Kapanen and some others lying around. Wouldn't have a major issue with packaging them away to get something better.

 

[Morbo]

I guess the true test of this position is how one would resolve their feelings if the Leafs bundled say Matthews and Rielly for Norris trophy winner Doughty.

If someone has no problem dealing high-end kids/prospects & picks etc in a package for a player of Doughty's level then that certainly would mean a trade or sign position is one they support and endorse. If that is something they wouldn't support then they would be in the draft and develop and stay the course crowd.

well, no.

Matthews isn't just any "high end kid/prospect", this is a kid with a good chance to become one of the top players in the game. With all due respect to Rielly who projects highly, I don't think he's in that sort of class.

Staying the course doesn't mean you don't make trades. Making trades doesn't mean you're not staying the course either. Nor does being in favour of making a trade necessarily mean you have to be good with trading Matthews away. That would be insane.