Proposal: Buffalo-Pittsburgh major shakeup

[Empoleon8771]

There was a discussion on the Penguins board about this, so I want to get opinions of other fans. This deal assumes the Penguins lose to the Habs in the 1st round and also lose the draft lottery, which results in them having pick #15 in the draft. The deal is:

Penguins trade Letang and pick #15
Sabres trade Ristolainen and pick #8

Is this a fair trade based on how GMs probably view Ristolainen? I know Ristolainen has horrid analytics and the analytical community thinks he sucks because of it, but I'm asking about whether this is fair based on how GMs probably view Ristolainen.

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[Ledge And Dairy]

I dont really see what this does for Buffalo. They really dont need an more RD. Maybe a 3-way trade that sends Letang somewhere else for a top 6 forward? Otherwise Buffalo should just keep the pick and flip risto for a middle 6 guy

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

You just gonna assume you keep pick 15 and give us next year’s unprotected?

 

[Beauner]

Absolutely f***ing not. Riso isn't remotely close to Letang and the draft picks are a complete lottery.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I dont really see what this does for Buffalo. They really dont need an more RD. Maybe a 3-way trade that sends Letang somewhere else for a top 6 forward? Otherwise Buffalo should just keep the pick and flip risto for a middle 6 guy

It gives them an actual #1D, which they don't really have right now. Saying they don't need Letang because they have Ristolainen and Jokiharju/Montour as RD is like saying Montreal doesn't need ROR because they have Danault and Domi as top-6 centers.

You just gonna assume you keep pick 15 and give us next year’s unprotected?

If JR can trade the pick up and get #8 this year, I think he'd keep it. I'm not sure what he'd do with the pick if it's just pick #15.

Absolutely f***ing not. Riso isn't remotely close to Letang and the draft picks are a complete lottery.

I'm not asking if fans would do that trade, I'm asking if that's a realistic trade in terms of value. I know fans hate Ristolainen because of his analytics.

 

[Djp]

You want buffalo to eat $2M more in salary and move down in draft pick order for someone 8 yrs older and can fall off a cliff.


Pittsburgh needs to add a tom---glad Botterill isnt around

 

[LongWayDown37]

I'm a bigger Risto fan than most, but... has Letang seriously declined? I can't see Pitt going anywhere near this.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You want buffalo to eat $2M more in salary and move down in draft pick order for someone 8 yrs older and can fall off a cliff.


Pittsburgh needs to add a tom---glad Botterill isnt around

Conveniently not mentioning that Letang is way better than Ristolainen, but okay.

I'm a bigger Risto fan than most, but... has Letang seriously declined? I can't see Pitt going anywhere near this.

No he hasn't. The discussion started as what the Penguins may do if they lose to the Habs in the play-in round, and Letang being a trade candidate was thrown out. The idea is that he'd get moved in a similar deal to Kessel, where he'll get swapped for a worse but younger player to "shake up the team". Ristolainen's name came up and we can't come to an agreement for what that deal would look like, so that's why I threw it out on here.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

It gives them an actual #1D, which they don't really have right now. Saying they don't need Letang because they have Ristolainen and Jokiharju/Montour as RD is like saying Montreal doesn't need ROR because they have Danault and Domi as top-6 centers.

What do you mean "it gives them an actual #1D," did you just forget Dahlin exists? That kid is very likely to win a Norris some day and is the best young defenseman in the league.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What do you mean "it gives them an actual #1D," did you just forget Dahlin exists? That kid is very likely to win a Norris some day and is the best young defenseman in the league.

Dahlin isn't a #1D yet. He will be soon, but he's not one yet.

He's not even playing 20 minutes a night, so I don't know how you can seriously call him a #1D right now.

 

[Djp]

Conveniently not mentioning that Letang is way better than Ristolainen, but okay.


.

Buffalo has Dahlin

Letang is on the downside of his career.

With Risto buffalo can still sign him and keep him and he will be in his 20s still. Letang just retires then Buffalo needs to get another Dman to replace him---great long term planning on Buffalos end.

You want to unload a veteran and rebuild the team on the fly.

This is a dumb ass GM move on buffalos part.

 

[Mick Jagr]

Absolute TRASH for Pittsburgh. No way.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Buffalo has Dahlin

Letang is on the downside of his career.

With Risto buffalo can still sign him and keep him and he will be in his 20s still. Letang just retires then Buffalo needs to get another Dman to replace him---great long term planning on Buffalos end.

Again, conveniently not mentioning that Letang is way better than Ristolainen.

You want to unload a veteran and rebuild the team on the fly.

This is a dumb ass GM move on buffalos part.

Yes, because I'd be targeting Rasmus f***ing Ristolainen of all players if I wanted to "rebuild the team on the fly"

We're talking about a hypothetical, if you take a trade proposal you don't like so personally, maybe you should take a chill pill. The idea came up on the Penguins board as doing another Kessel for Galchenyuk type of trade to "shake the team up", and Ristolainen's name came up as an example of someone the Penguins could target in that kind of deal. We weren't sure what that trade would look like, because it's hard to gauge Letang's value and Ristolainen's value, so I threw it out here. Getting this mad because someone had the audacity to suggest this is absurd.

 

[Djp]

I'm a bigger Risto fan than most, but... has Letang seriously declined? I can't see Pitt going anywhere near this.

33+ players can fall off a cliff which is why I am not touching Letang.

If you have a solid top 4 Dman group you dont need a true #1

 

[Djp]

Again, conveniently not mentioning that Letang is way better than Ristolainen.



Yes, because I'd be targeting Rasmus f***ing Ristolainen of all players if I wanted to "rebuild the team on the fly"

We're talking about a hypothetical, if you take a trade proposal you don't like so personally, maybe you should take a chill pill. The idea came up on the Penguins board as doing another Kessel for Galchenyuk type of trade to "shake the team up", and Ristolainen's name came up as an example of someone the Penguins could target. We weren't sure what that trade would look like, because it's hard to gauge Letang's value and Ristolainen's value, so I threw it out here. Getting this mad because someone had the audacity to suggest this is absurd.

How are you quantifying way better?

all stats are biased towards teams success.

 

[Empoleon8771]

How are you quantifying way better?

all stats are biased towards teams success.

Seriously?

I guess your reaction is justified if you think Ristolainen is close to as good as Letang, but he's flat out not. Letang's a 50-65 point #1D who plays 26 minutes a night against top competition in all situations and gets fantastic analytic results. Ristolainen is.....well, not that.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Dahlin isn't a #1D yet. He will be soon, but he's not one yet.

He's not even playing 20 minutes a night, so I don't know how you can seriously call him a #1D right now.

I can call him a #1D as he very likely will be next year. Buffalo isn't trying to win the cup next year, they are just trying to show thy can compete. Acquiring an OFD on the wrong side of 30 in exchange for a 26yo OFD and moving out of the top 10 is horrible asset management. Obviously Letang is better than Risto but neither fits Buffalo's team needs. So my point is keep the significantly better prospect and move the unneeded piece elsewhere for what they do need

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can call him a #1D as he very likely will be next year. Buffalo isn't trying to win the cup next year, they are just trying to show thy can compete. Acquiring an OFD on the wrong side of 30 in exchange for a 26yo OFD and moving out of the top 10 is horrible asset management. Obviously Letang is better than Risto but neither fits Buffalo's team needs. So my point is keep the significantly better prospect and move the unneeded piece elsewhere for what they do need

I mean, wouldn't acquiring Letang be exactly that?

I do get what you're saying, I just don't personally agree with your evaluation of where Buffalo's defense is at. I don't think Buffalo can comfortably move Ristolainen for forward help, I think they need legitimately better defensemen.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Absolutely not.

 

[Djp]

Seriously?

I guess your reaction is justified if you think Ristolainen is close to as good as Letang, but he's flat out not. Letang's a 50-65 point #1D who plays 26 minutes a night against top competition in all situations and gets fantastic analytic results. Ristolainen is.....well, not that.

classic HF bias with good players on great teams vs good players on bad teams

risto was regularly playing 24+ minures a night.

Letangs point totals are slightly better than get be attributed to being on a better team.

the differmece is low 40s to low 50s. If we factor in teams offense production and the percent of goals the player was involved in then Risto wins.

If you switch player teams they are likely have similar points of the person they replaces.

Risto is younger by 8 years and has more career ahead of him and is bigger

You want to rebuild on the fly by using this long career great player to get a younger replacement

 

[Empoleon8771]

classic HF bias with good players on great teams vs good players on bad teams

risto was regularly playing 24+ minures a night.

Letangs point totals are slightly better than get be attributed to being on a better team.

the differmece is low 40s to low 50s. If we factor in teams offense production and the percent of goals the player was involved in then Risto wins.

If you switch player teams they are likely have similar points of the person they replaces.

Risto is younger by 8 years and has more career ahead of him and is bigger

You want to rebuild on the fly by using this long career great player to get a younger replacement

How do you think the "Letang is way better than Ristolainen" take is "HF bias"? Letang is insanely better analytically, insanely better defensively and produces insanely more. Even if you want to chalk up the production to playing for 2 different calibers of teams, it doesn't address the other 2 factors.

You're insanely biased here so I don't think it's worth my time trying to convince you of anything. You getting this offended over a trade proposal is absurd. I laid out the concept of the deal (it's based on the Kessel-Galchenyuk deal from a year ago), but you got insanely offended for literally no reason.

 

[Djp]

I mean, wouldn't acquiring Letang be exactly that?

I do get what you're saying, I just don't personally agree with your evaluation of where Buffalo's defense is at. I don't think Buffalo can comfortably move Ristolainen for forward help, I think they need legitimately better defensemen.

defensive statistics are not offensive point totals. statistics are a serious problem in isolating player.

they are not likely moving Ristolainen for forward help.

there one hole is at 2C--trading for Letang doesnt address that problem.

Then Letang retired in 2 seasons so you then need to address the top 4 RD loss.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I mean, wouldn't acquiring Letang be exactly that?

I do get what you're saying, I just don't personally agree with your evaluation of where Buffalo's defense is at. I don't think Buffalo can comfortably move Ristolainen for forward help, I think they need legitimately better defensemen.

A 33 yo defender doesn't help them for when they want to make a cup run, he may help them compete next year but he doesn't help them at all long term. As for their defense, Montour is a fine player and Jokiharju is a top end prospect, they should continue to develop their young core and not acquire more aging contracts to rush mediocrity.

 

[Empoleon8771]

defensive statistics are not offensive point totals. statistics are a serious problem in isolating player.

they are not likely moving Ristolainen for forward help.

there one hole is at 2C--trading for Letang doesnt address that problem.

Then Letang retired in 2 seasons so you then need to address the top 4 RD loss.

1. Letang isn't going to retire in 2 seasons. He's 33, not 38.
2. Defensive statistics aren't law at this point, but they completely exist. Them telling you something different than you want to believe doesn't mean they don't exist.

A 33 yo defender doesn't help them for when they want to make a cup run, he may help them compete next year but he doesn't help them at all long term. As for their defense, Montour is a fine player and Jokiharju is a top end prospect, they should continue to develop their young core and not acquire more aging contracts to rush mediocrity.

Idk, I just have the philosophy that waiting around for this to happen guarantees it won't happen.

You either need to bottom out and get lucky with drafting future elite players or trade for elite players now. When exactly is this "cup run" going to happen if you don't take steps to actively improve the roster? It's just something I don't agree with.

 

[Djp]

How do you think the "Letang is way better than Ristolainen" take is "HF bias"? Letang is insanely better analytically, insanely better defensively and produces insanely more. Even if you want to chalk up the production to playing for 2 different calibers of teams, it doesn't address the other 2 factors.

You're insanely biased here so I don't think it's worth my time trying to convince you of anything. You getting this offended over a trade proposal is absurd. I laid out the concept of the deal (it's based on the Kessel-Galchenyuk deal from a year ago), but you got insanely offended for literally no reason.

im not offended--you are just out of touch with buffalo and have bigger homer bias.

You say buffalo needs a #1 Dman--they have one in Dahlin who is just 20.

You say hes hands down better than Risto--except they both have played high minutes. Risto is a little less points than Letang right now. Remove blinders from a Letang at 25. Hes 33 now. point differences is atreibuted to the team they play on and the goals the teams scores.

You just say hes world better--based on career or what they are now.

Letang is a 33 yr old not a 25 yr old. You k9ght have an argument of Letang at 25 vs Risto at 25. we arent in a time machine world.

show the isolated stats that say Letang is better than Risto/ A;lso you ned to factor in ROI which is return on investment since their salries are different. You have done that yet.