Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills: 2021 off-season

[Husko]

Correct me if wrong - but won't this just push his cap hit further down the road?

Not disagreeing with your general assessment of Beane - i think he's killed it. But this move alone seems to be unremarkable at best.

I'm assuming the space is being cleared up for a TE acquisition?

When base salary converts to bonus it does 2 things generally:

(1) Becomes guaranteed, so cutting the player doesn't save that money;

(2) It distributes the cap hit of that money evenly over the life of the contract, thereby reducing the cap hit of the year the money is in.

Theoretically, if you keep doing this, it will create a big ugly cap hit that you can't get out of at the end of the contract. Hopefully at that point you can extend the player to fix that cap hit.

 

[Husko]

You clearly don't see the big picture.

If the cap 'explodes' then salaries will do the same. You have the same number of teams paying the same number of players.

The value of cap space (or lack there of) does not change.

In that scenario, though, all the locked in contracts become more valuable, because they all of a sudden represent a smaller % of the total cap.

 

[Buffaloed]

If we're talking mid round LBs, this is a guy I'm sure the Bills would love to add if the round fit is right. He's basically a carbon copy of Matt Milano. Went to Bennett High School in Buffalo, as an added bonus.

Isiah McDuffie

He's on a lot of team's radar. I posted a couple times about him. He started out at safety and grew into the LB position like Milano.

 

[SundherDome]

Sure, but if your valuation is off by more than 50% in a span of six months (meaning that valuation was determined well into the pandemic,) it probably wasn't that accurate to begin with.

This isn't new for Forbes, they've been significantly overvaluing celebrities' net worth for years. They really just take whatever someone tells them they're worth as fact

Lastly, I really doubt minority owners would've sold their stakes for a loss, especially considering how profitable being an NFL owner is. I think they got fair market value for their stake

The only thing that surprises me is the NFL allowing Snyder to fund his purchase with $450 million in debt financing

I don't think they are selling at a loss but they are not getting max value. I imagine they see sponsors wanting to leave the team and all the misconduct claims, they probably see that investment going lower in the future or the NFL making him sell and then you have a new majority owner. I'm sure they overvalue a bit as the valuation can teeter each day.

 

[Fezzy126]

My main point was that they love LBers to be ST contributors.

Klein is a near lock regardless though IMO. They're paying him too much to cut him & when utilised properly he's productive. He's a McBeane guy too.

To beat the likes of Dodson/Smith - that player will likely need to be a big ST contributor.

Unfortunately I think Klein is locked in just by virtue of his contract implications. Significant money and no real savings to cut him. Hopefully we see him in more of the on the line strong side role he was signed for this year, as opposed to WLB replacing injured Milano (where he really failed).

Dodson is someone they appear to like and speak highly of, but I don't get it. I thought he was awful and way too slow for our scheme.

Smith/Matakavich are really just special teamers.

So yes, I completely agree, a speedy backup for Milano/Edmunds that doesn't get roasted in pass coverage is an absolute must in the draft.

I didn't realize Klein's contract had such significant dead cap implications. That being said, did anyone see the Quinton Spain cut coming a year ago?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

In that scenario, though, all the locked in contracts become more valuable, because they all of a sudden represent a smaller % of the total cap.

Potentially - but with the fluidity of nfl contracts it's likely those players would just get raises anyway.

 

[Ace]

You clearly don't see the big picture.

If the cap 'explodes' then salaries will do the same. You have the same number of teams paying the same number of players.

The value of cap space (or lack there of) does not change.

I see the big picture. And in that picture moving a few million dollars for a long term contracted player into years when there is more money than a anomaly year where there is less is not only not a problem...it's the only right answer. The value of cap space changes immensely when you already have your major roster pieces under team control for the first few years of the change.

To not understand that a transition in salaries, and the value of already signed deals, does not change in an instant but instead is a gradual one over the course of years...you don't see any picture.

 

[Ace]

In that scenario, though, all the locked in contracts become more valuable, because they all of a sudden represent a smaller % of the total cap.

this guy gets it.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Correct me if wrong - but won't this just push his cap hit further down the road?

Not disagreeing with your general assessment of Beane - i think he's killed it. But this move alone seems to be unremarkable at best.

I'm assuming the space is being cleared up for a TE acquisition?

Yeah, but pushing the cap hit forward only has potential downside if there's a chance the player gets cut before his contract is over, which, obviously no for Tre. Otherwise, we've got a one-off year with a down cap this season and a projectable large rise coming in the future.

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this frees up room for us to trade for/sign anyone new so much as it clears enough space for us to sign our draft class.

 

[TalkingProuder]

I think the Bills are actually too conservative with the cap. It dropped..big deal. It goes up next year and the window for Allen cheap is now.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Yeah, but pushing the cap hit forward only has potential downside if there's a chance the player gets cut before his contract is over, which, obviously no for Tre. Otherwise, we've got a one-off year with a down cap this season and a projectable large rise coming in the future.

Someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this frees up room for us to trade for/sign anyone new so much as it clears enough space for us to sign our draft class.

Well - it more importantly also has the downside of a bigger cap hit down the road during Allen’s second contract.

IIRC OverTheCap's figures account for draft reserve & they had ~500k space before the White restructure & Obada signing.

Assuming this is correct there is now a TE1 sized chunk of free space...

 

[EichHart]

I think the Bills are actually too conservative with the cap. It dropped..big deal. It goes up next year and the window for Allen cheap is now.

Maybe Allen wants to wait until next year? It's not entirely the Bills decision.

 

[TalkingProuder]

Maybe Allen wants to wait until next year? It's not entirely the Bills decision.

I'm not referring to that specifically. A new deal gives Buffalo greater flexibility as his 5th year option is close to 25 million cap.

There is a window to win. It's open now. You get 3 to 4 years depending on how hard you go. There is no better time than now with Allen's currently low cap number.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm not referring to that specifically. A new deal gives Buffalo greater flexibility as his 5th year option is close to 25 million cap.

There is a window to win. It's open now. You get 3 to 4 years depending on how hard you go. There is no better time than now with Allen's currently low cap number.

Allen will sign an extension this summer. It's a certainty.

A couple of weeks ago in this thread i debunked the theory that you need to have a QB on their rookie contract to win the SB. In the last 20 years only 25% of the winners had their QB playing D+3 or younger.

The 'we need to go all in this year' line of thought is BS. If it was true - then why would you even bother extending Allen at all?

 

[TalkingProuder]

Allen will sign an extension this summer. It's a certainty.

A couple of weeks ago in this thread i debunked the theory that you need to have a QB on their rookie contract to win the SB. In the last 20 years only 25% of the winners had their QB playing D+3 or younger.

The 'we need to go all in this year' line of thought is BS. If it was true - then why would you even bother extending Allen at all?

I don't subscribe to the theory that you can only win with a super cheap QB. But you are going to far in another direction and ignoring the opportunity.

Let's assume Allen gets extended. The fact is he will be taking a much larger percentage of the cap soon. When that happens there will be less room for wasteful spending on Trent Murphys, Tyler Krofts, Star Lotuleleis.

It's not just Allen. Edmunds is probably getting 14 million. Allen will be getting 40 million yearly. They paid Dawkins and Milano and Tre White.


Winning a Super Bowl is hard. You're up against 31 other teams. Windows open and close just as fast.

You sign Allen because you believe it keeps you competitive for the next decade. It doesn't guarantee you are a real Super Bowl threat for a decade. Those windows open briefly when the QB is still cheap and you can load up the roster and then might reopen 1 or 2 more times if the right draft picks, players not aging out, fa signings, injuries happen in sequence.

So if the window is now, why not more urgency? The artificially low cap this year need not be treated as anything more than a suggestion.

Go add a FA pass rusher or 2.

 

[Husko]

Allen will sign an extension this summer. It's a certainty.

A couple of weeks ago in this thread i debunked the theory that you need to have a QB on their rookie contract to win the SB. In the last 20 years only 25% of the winners had their QB playing D+3 or younger.

The 'we need to go all in this year' line of thought is BS. If it was true - then why would you even bother extending Allen at all?

How many of the non-Brady SB winners were on their rookie contract? Or some sort of cheap QB contract situation?

 

[Dirty Dog]

And how many teams with young QBs have we seen go for broke and prematurely close their window?

I also don’t agree that we have a limited window. Some teams have taken that approach. Other teams have tried to build a solid team with sustained success like the ravens, Steelers, and packers. Sure they haven’t won a ton of Super Bowls, but 90% of the time they are a good playoff team. And a good playoff team can win the super bowl any given year. The goal should be to give Allen a good competitive team for his career, make the playoffs most of the years, and hopefully win a super bowl or two. There is no reason why we can’t continue to get depth through the draft, and identify and maintain our core group of players.

 

[missingmika]

How many of the non-Brady SB winners were on their rookie contract? Or some sort of cheap QB contract situation?

Don’t forget too Brady was on a super team friendly deal most of his NE years. It’s not like the Packers and Aaron Rodgers where 25 percent of the cap goes to Rodgers.

 

[Husko]

And how many teams with young QBs have we seen go for broke and prematurely close their window?

I also don’t agree that we have a limited window. Some teams have taken that approach. Other teams have tried to build a solid team with sustained success like the ravens, Steelers, and packers. Sure they haven’t won a ton of Super Bowls, but 90% of the time they are a good playoff team. And a good playoff team can win the super bowl any given year. The goal should be to give Allen a good competitive team for his career, make the playoffs most of the years, and hopefully win a super bowl or two. There is no reason why we can’t continue to get depth through the draft, and identify and maintain our core group of players.

How many? I'm actually asking? In my mind the bigger issue ends up being when the superstar QB ends up falling short of his contract (e.g. Wentz, Goff).

 

[Dirty Dog]

How many? I'm actually asking? In my mind the bigger issue ends up being when the superstar QB ends up falling short of his contract (e.g. Wentz, Goff).

I think the best example is the Rams LOLing at the draft is the most recent example of what not to do to sustain success. I understand the Goff bust angle, but this is a team trading for and handing out big contracts left and right, and skipping the first round every year.

The only other recent team that comes to mind of not staying the course and building their good team, and instead opting to go for it one offseason is the Vikings. But it’s not a great example, they had other issues

I think a another interesting angle is how many teams with franchise QBs had their window close after their rookie deal? The only team that comes to mind is the Seahawks, but like my Vikings example above, a lot more was going on there.

So I guess, there’s not many examples of either scenario. What there are plenty of examples are, is teams having long periods of success with their franchise qb. Rewind 10 years, and you’ll see the patriots, Steelers, packers, and saints in the playoffs. Those teams were, and some still are, Super Bowl contenders. We should emulate what they did: have a franchise qb and lean on him. I don’t think their QBs getting big contracts ever closed their super bowl window. Does anyone? Then why should ours

so basically draft well haha and build a good line for Allen

edit: I’ll also add that I agree with being somewhat aggressive. The NFL salary cap is built for it. I just want to also keep draft picks and stay out of tier 1 free agency where contracts generally don’t age well. This strategy laid dividends for the saints, while a team like the packers should have been way more aggressive.

 

[TalkingProuder]

I think the best example is the Rams LOLing at the draft is the most recent example of what not to do to sustain success. I understand the Goff bust angle, but this is a team trading for and handing out big contracts left and right, and skipping the first round every year.

The only other recent team that comes to mind of not staying the course and building their good team, and instead opting to go for it one offseason is the Vikings. But it’s not a great example, they had other issues

I think a another interesting angle is how many teams with franchise QBs had their window close after their rookie deal? The only team that comes to mind is the Seahawks, but like my Vikings example above, a lot more was going on there.

So I guess, there’s not many examples of either scenario. What there are plenty of examples are, is teams having long periods of success with their franchise qb. Rewind 10 years, and you’ll see the patriots, Steelers, packers, and saints in the playoffs. Those teams were, and some still are, Super Bowl contenders. We should emulate what they did: have a franchise qb and lean on him. I don’t think their QBs getting big contracts ever closed their super bowl window. Does anyone? Then why should ours

so basically draft well haha and build a good line for Allen

edit: I’ll also add that I agree with being somewhat aggressive. The NFL salary cap is built for it. I just want to also keep draft picks and stay out of tier 1 free agency where contracts generally don’t age well. This strategy laid dividends for the saints, while a team like the packers should have been way more aggressive.

Why are you skipping the Chiefs? They got their QB one year before ours and Allen and Mahomes both became full time starters in the 2018 season.

Since then they have appeared in 3 AFC Championship games, appeared in 2 Super Bowls and won 1.

They are not executing some vague hope for the future. They are loading each year up as much as they can.

Looks like they will be stacked

2021
2022
2023

2024 or so is where they probably cut or move on from a bunch of stars on D and recalibrate for a year or 2.

Even if they just played random Jags on D and kept their offense they would be still a threat in the AFC, just not the top favorite for a year or 2 while they reloaded.

Let me ask you, when do you say go? Or is what there is now full throttle to you?

 

[Fezzy126]

Marcel's biggest area's for improvement in the draft:

1. TE
2. RB
3. CB
4. Pass-Rusher

I thought it was interesting that he noted O-Line play under RB, yet didn't list O-Line as a possibility here:

Buffalo's offensive line didn't fare well as run-blockers, either, finishing with the league's fourth worst run block win rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Cover1 guys have made similar observations about our guard play as well. I know it's not sexy, but I'd be all aboard a Wyatt Davis or Creed Humphrey pick.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Why are you skipping the Chiefs? They got their QB one year before ours and Allen and Mahomes both became full time starters in the 2018 season.

Since then they have appeared in 3 AFC Championship games, appeared in 2 Super Bowls and won 1.

They are not executing some vague hope for the future. They are loading each year up as much as they can.

Looks like they will be stacked

2021
2022
2023

2024 or so is where they probably cut or move on from a bunch of stars on D and recalibrate for a year or 2.

Even if they just played random Jags on D and kept their offense they would be still a threat in the AFC, just not the top favorite for a year or 2 while they reloaded.

Let me ask you, when do you say go? Or is what there is now full throttle to you?

i think the chiefs are in the exact same bucket of what I pointed out of how to do it. I just skipped recent teams for the past 2-3 years. I think you misread my post.

they aren’t being reckless trying to capitalize on an imaginary temporary window. They are not throwing away draft picks or being reckless in free agency. Nor are they being too conservative.

they are being moderately aggressive, and that is smart. I don’t think their window closes briefly in 2024. As long as they have mahomes and have a somewhat competitive team around him, they are a super bowl threat. Their level of quality will ebb and flow, but managed right, they should be a Super Bowl contender any given year while they have mahomes.

my point is they are not loading up to the degree that it will make them a non playoff team in 3 years (even temporary). There is no window for franchise QBs with decent teams around them. Like you said, they could have an ass defense, and their offense will always be a threat to have a hot stretch in the playoffs and win a SB

 

[Husko]

Aside from just bolstering the offense (guard, deep threat receiver, dynamic RB, dynamic TE), I'd call the biggest singular team need "difference making defender."

It could be a second lockdown CB. It could be a dynamic pass rusher. It could be a big nickel/rover player that moves all over the defense. It could really look a lot of different ways. But to the extent there's a way to make the team demonstrably better, that's the way IMO. Add one genuine difference maker on defense.

(I saw this despite my ardent belief that outside of the margins defense doesn't really matter. But a dynamic difference maker on defense might just push us into the good margin.)

 

[Husko]

Marcel's biggest area's for improvement in the draft:

1. TE
2. RB
3. CB
4. Pass-Rusher

I thought it was interesting that he noted O-Line play under RB, yet didn't list O-Line as a possibility here:



The Cover1 guys have made similar observations about our guard play as well. I know it's not sexy, but I'd be all aboard a Wyatt Davis or Creed Humphrey pick.

Yeah, an interior lineman to compete with Ford at LG in the short term and replace Morse at center longterm would be A-OK with me in the first, especially if we don't trade up.