Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills: 2021 off-season

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm basically saying, take bpa available at any position except qb,k,p Ls. You don't want to go into a draft needing something. TB knew we needed a qb so that trade up cost more. You also don't want to be picking 32nd and hoping 1 of the top DE falls to you before the value craters.

Right - but that doesn't mean accumulting extra picks in this draft is a good idea. In fact it's the opposite. Your last point actually adds weight to the argurment for stockpiling 2022 picks too.

There are still only 53 roster spots available with no place to realistically stash good young players who don't make the 53. Its not the NHL. Collecting future draft picks makes a lot more sense than collecting good first year players for the Bills right now.

 

[TalkingProuder]

Arguably the most important in the modern NFL. To find a highly drafted QB without mobility that succeeded you have to go all the way back to the Matt Ryan/Stafford era of draft picks. It just doesn't happen anymore. It's why I don't have Mac Jones anywhere near a first round grade. He's closer to a day 3 pick than a day 1 pick, IMO.

I have late 2nd on Mac Jones. He's a more polished C.J. Beathard.

Don't know if you have seen Waldman's work on Fields but I highly recommend it. Don't know what his final conclusion is but it is obvious he sees the same problems.

The video is even better, it is 15 minutes long but you see examples of Fields late or not throwing the ball when he should.

The report that Fields made alarmingly few reads beyond his first in the Ohio State offense is inaccurate when talking about the number of reads tracked. However, the spirit of the critique has some truth.
Fields can go 2-3 quarters at a time without making more than one read. So do a lot of college quarterbacks in offenses that use RPOs and misdirection schemes to leverage the legs of their passers.
Baker Mayfield played in a Lincoln Riley offense at Oklahoma where the “first read” with a lot of his plays was really window dressing—an embedded look-off by design—to set up the “second read” that was truly the primary option on the play.
The truer statement about Fields is, that like many of the smartest NFL quarterbacks in the game, he has a slow processor in situations where only the fastest processor will do.

The Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP)Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room: QB Justin Fields (OSU) and the Josh Allen Plan

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Obada sounds like a 3rd down pass rush specialist. Fine with me, always worth seeing if you can catch fire with a guy like that.

Love this.

He's not technically English but is treated as if he is because he came through our system.

Love him & Wade being part of the Bills & hope he makes it. He's a legit player - has a chance.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Love this.

He's not technically English but is treated as if he is because he came through our system.

Love him & Wade being part of the Bills & hope he makes it. He's a legit player - has a chance.

Definitely seems like a solid acquisition and, oddly enough, may still have another level to his game even at the age of 29. Hopefully he can build off of his 5.5 sack campaign last year.

 

[Buffaloed]

Obada sounds like a 3rd down pass rush specialist. Fine with me, always worth seeing if you can catch fire with a guy like that.

He might turn out to be more. Last season he played 39-percent of the Panthers’ defensive snaps.

Bills sign Efe Obada: 5 things to know about versatile DL

Bills defensive line coach Eric Washington was his DL coach in Carolina in 2017 and his DC in 2018-19.

Former Panthers GM Marty Hurney:
“I think there is flexibility there in his versatility. I think that Efe has a very good knack inside as a three-technique as far as getting penetration so not only can he play outside at end but he can move inside in sub (situations) and he’s done that and done it well. And Efe is a guy that every day, he comes in and you get his full effort every day – 100 miles an hour. He wants to get better. He improves steadily every week and I think he’s ready to make another jump here. He has versatility up and down the defensive line.”

 

[Fezzy126]

RB - we have all talked about this but i don't think it's a given they add anyone notable. I could see them roll with Moss/Singletary/xxxx/Jones - with xxxx being a low key free agent add or even a guy like Antonio Williams.

TE - it seems certain that they add a higher profile / experienced type. Highly doubt they draft a TE with Knox already on the roster.

OL - I think they draft at least one OL - guaranteed - but wouldn't bank on more. I have Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams, Bates, Boettger as (near) locks to make the roster. With one addition that is eight which may well be as many as they carry.

DE - unless they fall in love with a particular player i don't see a DE being drafted. I have Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Johnson as (near) locks. No reason to believe they carry more than four.

CB - have said this is where i think they most likely use a high pick - but Beane even said in the recent PC he is hapoy with Wallace/Jackson. I certainly don't think they add a slot/NB either - Johnson/Neal are both locks for me.

DT - agree that 1T to rotate with Star is a need. Hopefully they see that. I would expect one of Zimmer or Phillips to make way though.

LB - i do not see them adfdng an LB - other than potentially a hybrid / 'big nickel' type as described by @Husko above.

I'm absolutely on board with trading picks - but trading back for multiple picks in this draft would be dumb. Trading for extra picks in 2022 would be smart OTOH.

I still see LB as a fairly big need. I think you can find guys in the middle rounds, so not 1st or 2nd draft day need, but still a big one. We're only one injury away from complaining about an overreliance on Klein again.

 

[TalkingProuder]

I still see LB as a fairly big need. I think you can find guys in the middle rounds, so not 1st or 2nd draft day need, but still a big one. We're only one injury away from complaining about an overreliance on Klein again.

I like the value of the guys in the 2nd.

If Chaz Surratt or Cameron McGrone is sitting there I grab one and that frees Edmunds to play the Lorenzo moving piece role that we really miss. It also improves our run D up the middle.

If they are good enough it gives us ability to not be forced to do something silly like pay Edmunds 15 million a year.

 

[explore]

Dan Snyder is buying out his minority partners' 40.5% ownership stake for $875 million, including using $450 million in debt financing to fund it.

Unless my math is wrong (please feel free to correct me if it is,) this values the WFT team at $875/.405 = $2.16 billion, while Forbes is listing the team's value at $3.5 billion (Washington Football Team on the Forbes NFL Team Valuations List)

In short, Forbes are a bunch of clowns who just make up valuations of people and businesses and should be cast off to the same meaningless hell as Larry Brooks' Rags hot takes in the NY Post

 

[Husko]

If we're talking mid round LBs, this is a guy I'm sure the Bills would love to add if the round fit is right. He's basically a carbon copy of Matt Milano. Went to Bennett High School in Buffalo, as an added bonus.

Isiah McDuffie

McDuffie plays with a palpable energy and rarely gears down until the whistle blows. He's undersized, but is at his best playing inside. That's where his recognition talent and instincts take over and allow him to race to run lanes ahead of the block. He pursues with leverage but has the burst to accelerate and attack when it's time to finish. His full-tilt playing style will lead to occasional issues with pursuit angles and being out of balance as a tackler, though. He's feisty but takes time to free himself from blockers and was ineffective when asked to drop into coverage. He has the ability to become a quality backup with core special teams value.

 

[Fezzy126]

I like the value of the guys in the 2nd.

If Chaz Surratt or Cameron McGrone is sitting there I grab one and that frees Edmunds to play the Lorenzo moving piece role that we really miss. It also improves our run D up the middle.

If they are good enough it gives us ability to not be forced to do something silly like pay Edmunds 15 million a year.

I didn't watch as much college fb this year, so I'm not as familiar with a lot of the prospects. But if his medicals check out I'd be very intrigued by Moses.

 

[Mike McDermott]

BB is having an amazing off season and this ha just another step for that.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

BB is having an amazing off season and this ha just another step for that.

Correct me if wrong - but won't this just push his cap hit further down the road?

Not disagreeing with your general assessment of Beane - i think he's killed it. But this move alone seems to be unremarkable at best.

I'm assuming the space is being cleared up for a TE acquisition?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I still see LB as a fairly big need. I think you can find guys in the middle rounds, so not 1st or 2nd draft day need, but still a big one. We're only one injury away from complaining about an overreliance on Klein again.

Once again - it's a question of numbers. We know how they value STers especially at this position.

I have Milano/Edmunds/Klein/Matakevich as locks with Dodson/Smith as probables.

Not saying it's impossible they draft a LB - but i don't think it's a position they are particularly looking for upgrades above any other position.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Obada’s story is pretty amazing.



he’s featured in the “all or nothing” series on amazon prime. Seems like a great guy.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Correct me if wrong - but won't this just push his cap hit further down the road?

Not disagreeing with your general assessment of Beane - i think he's killed it. But this move alone seems to be unremarkable at best.

I'm assuming the space is being cleared up for a TE acquisition?

Yup. I believe it gets spread across the remaining years of his deal.

 

[explore]

BB is having an amazing off season and this ha just another step for that.

Correct me if wrong - but won't this just push his cap hit further down the road?

Not disagreeing with your general assessment of Beane - i think he's killed it. But this move alone seems to be unremarkable at best.

I'm assuming the space is being cleared up for a TE acquisition?

Yup, while this reduces the team's cap this year, it'll be increase White's cap hits on the remaining years. This really just maximizing the roster for this year, while kicking the cap penalty down the road in the hopes that the cap increases by then

 

[Ace]

There's no need to hope the cap increases. They just signed monster tv contracts. It's going to explode.

 

[SundherDome]

Dan Snyder is buying out his minority partners' 40.5% ownership stake for $875 million, including using $450 million in debt financing to fund it.

Unless my math is wrong (please feel free to correct me if it is,) this values the WFT team at $875/.405 = $2.16 billion, while Forbes is listing the team's value at $3.5 billion (Washington Football Team on the Forbes NFL Team Valuations List)

In short, Forbes are a bunch of clowns who just make up valuations of people and businesses and should be cast off to the same meaningless hell as Larry Brooks' Rags hot takes in the NY Post

Valuations are based on trends and reported financials. All teams took a hit this year and the valuations good be lower as well with all the turmoil around the team. I also imagine merch sales have dropped as well. It actually sounds about right and it's annoying that the asshat can but the rest of the team on a cheaper rate since his leadership is why they cratered.

 

[brian_griffin]

Obada’s story is pretty amazing.



he’s featured in the “all or nothing” series on amazon prime. Seems like a great guy.

I've either seen that exactly, or something similar on ESPN or another network's equivalent to "30 for 30" magazine show.

Yup, while this reduces the team's cap this year, it'll be increase White's cap hits on the remaining years. This really just maximizing the roster for this year, while kicking the cap penalty down the road in the hopes that the cap increases by then

And, you can always cut people in future years and acquire better valuations. If it's two things we've learned about Beane, they are he's not prone to the Pegula/Murray/Botterill mistakes of:
1) overpaying for undervalue
2) failing to correct less than ideal cap situation(s) when they arise.
I fully acknowledge the NFL has both far easier and more numerous means to optimize both cap situations and roster talent situations. (i.e., there is no NFL equivalent of an AHL tying up the next tier of talent.) But Beane is looking at everything. He's not content with allowing minor talent improvement opportunities and minor cap optimization opportunities to go unaddressed. Whereas it seems the Sabres approach to a housefire is to close the windows to feed it less air, and hope it will burn a little slower and eventually peter out.

 

[explore]

Valuations are based on trends and reported financials. All teams took a hit this year and the valuations good be lower as well with all the turmoil around the team. I also imagine merch sales have dropped as well. It actually sounds about right and it's annoying that the asshat can but the rest of the team on a cheaper rate since his leadership is why they cratered.

Sure, but if your valuation is off by more than 50% in a span of six months (meaning that valuation was determined well into the pandemic,) it probably wasn't that accurate to begin with.

This isn't new for Forbes, they've been significantly overvaluing celebrities' net worth for years. They really just take whatever someone tells them they're worth as fact

Lastly, I really doubt minority owners would've sold their stakes for a loss, especially considering how profitable being an NFL owner is. I think they got fair market value for their stake

The only thing that surprises me is the NFL allowing Snyder to fund his purchase with $450 million in debt financing

 

[Fezzy126]

Once again - it's a question of numbers. We know how they value STers especially at this position.

I have Milano/Edmunds/Klein/Matakevich as locks with Dodson/Smith as probables.

Not saying it's impossible they draft a LB - but i don't think it's a position they are particularly looking for upgrades above any other position.

Perhaps I don't view Klein, Dotson, or Smith with the same security as you. Sure right now they make the roster, but if you draft a quality prospect then those jobs are absolutely up for competition.

I'd say the same thing about the other positions you listed. For example, Wallace is a decent CB2 and right now Jackson can provide depth/competition. But if they spend their 1st rounder on a CB that changes everything with the position group.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

There's no need to hope the cap increases. They just signed monster tv contracts. It's going to explode.

You clearly don't see the big picture.

If the cap 'explodes' then salaries will do the same. You have the same number of teams paying the same number of players.

The value of cap space (or lack there of) does not change.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Perhaps I don't view Klein, Dotson, or Smith with the same security as you. Sure right now they make the roster, but if you draft a quality prospect then those jobs are absolutely up for competition.

I'd say the same thing about the other positions you listed. For example, Wallace is a decent CB2 and right now Jackson can provide depth/competition. But if they spend their 1st rounder on a CB that changes everything with the position group.

My main point was that they love LBers to be ST contributors.

Klein is a near lock regardless though IMO. They're paying him too much to cut him & when utilised properly he's productive. He's a McBeane guy too.

To beat the likes of Dodson/Smith - that player will likely need to be a big ST contributor.

 

[missingmika]

Sure, but if your valuation is off by more than 50% in a span of six months (meaning that valuation was determined well into the pandemic,) it probably wasn't that accurate to begin with.

This isn't new for Forbes, they've been significantly overvaluing celebrities' net worth for years. They really just take whatever someone tells them they're worth as fact

Lastly, I really doubt minority owners would've sold their stakes for a loss, especially considering how profitable being an NFL owner is. I think they got fair market value for their stake

The only thing that surprises me is the NFL allowing Snyder to fund his purchase with $450 million in debt financing

It’s also the sale of a minority share. You’re doing a pro rata analysis that the teams entire worth is based off the sale of a minority share, however that doesn’t factor in things like a a minority share discount.

 

[Husko]

Perhaps I don't view Klein, Dotson, or Smith with the same security as you. Sure right now they make the roster, but if you draft a quality prospect then those jobs are absolutely up for competition.

I'd say the same thing about the other positions you listed. For example, Wallace is a decent CB2 and right now Jackson can provide depth/competition. But if they spend their 1st rounder on a CB that changes everything with the position group.

Unfortunately I think Klein is locked in just by virtue of his contract implications. Significant money and no real savings to cut him. Hopefully we see him in more of the on the line strong side role he was signed for this year, as opposed to WLB replacing injured Milano (where he really failed).

Dodson is someone they appear to like and speak highly of, but I don't get it. I thought he was awful and way too slow for our scheme.

Smith/Matakavich are really just special teamers.

So yes, I completely agree, a speedy backup for Milano/Edmunds that doesn't get roasted in pass coverage is an absolute must in the draft.