Confirmed Signing with Link: [BUF] Jeff Skinner signs extension (8 years, $9M AAV)

[Artorius Horus T]

I'm gonna repeat myself here but...
Jeff Skinner has 9 seasons in the NHL

27 goal avg per season
49 point avg per season
0.65 ppg avg

You do not pay a player 9 mill a year with only 1 x 40 goal season under his belt
no matter what of the markets.

He is one of the most inconsistent players in the NHL

31 goals (68 points), 20 goals (44 points), 13 goals (24 points)* 33 goals (54 points), 18 goals (31 points)
28 goals (51 points), 37 goals (63 points), 24 goals (49 points), 40 goals (63 points)

*lockout

6,5 - 7,0 would of been the right money (current market value)

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Year 1 (27): 35-40
Year 2 (28): 35-40
Year 3 (29): 35-40
Year 4 (30): 30-35
Year 5 (31): 25-30
Year 6 (32): 25-30
Year 7 (33): 20-30
Year 8 (34): 20-25

I'll take 225 - 270 goals over 8 years for 9MM

So not gonna happen thou.

Then again, i might be wrong but at least 9 previous seasons would support my point.

Its highly unlikely that player who scores 27 goals per season for 9 years,
would all of the sudden score with 35+ avg,but... the goal scoring is up again so....

 

[obey86]

He is, however, an elite even strength goal scorer. I don't know if he will hit 50, but he definitely has a chance at it.

He has a chance to hit 50 in the sense that "Anything is possible!" He doesn't have a realistic chance, unless you're purposely ignoring league history and his own history.

 

[Yatzhee]

I'm gonna repeat myself here but...
Jeff Skinner has 9 seasons in the NHL

27 goal avg per season
49 point avg per season
0.65 ppg avg

You do not pay a player 9 mill a year with only 1 x 40 goal season under his belt
no matter what of the markets.

He is one of the most inconsistent players in the NHL

31 goals (68 points), 20 goals (44 points), 13 goals (24 points)* 33 goals (54 points), 18 goals (31 points)
28 goals (51 points), 37 goals (63 points), 24 goals (49 points), 40 goals (63 points)

*lockout

6,5 - 7,0 would of been the right money (current market value)

In the past 5 seasons Skinner is ranked fifth in Even Strength goals.
He is in his prime and is playing with an elite playmaking center on an overall shotty roster team and nets 40 goals.
Hos figure skating acumen, stick handling ability, speed and sniping skills appear to be primed for the next 4 to 6 seasons but will most likely continue the full 8 years given his flexibility on skates specifically due to his figure skating past.

 

[Arto Kilponen]

the goal scoring is up again so....

In case you mean league goal scoring, it is good to remember that goals loses value then too. That is, if one season 40 goals gets you barely to top-50 in NHL and another season 35 goals wins Rocket Richard Trophy, that 35 goal season is a lot more valuable. Yes, extreme example, still.

In a smaller scale example, I rather take a player who in 3-0 win scores all three goals than a player who in 10-8 loss scores four goals.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

He has a chance to hit 50 in the sense that "Anything is possible!" He doesn't have a realistic chance, unless you're purposely ignoring league history and his own history.

I'm not ignoring either. I'm just saying that considering he is one of the best even-strength goal scorers in the league, and that he is playing with Eichel, gives him a better than "anything is possible" chance. The one thing very much against him in this is his lack of power play goals. It's not such a radical position to take.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Under the new Salary cap and based on rumors of future growth, would $7.5M AAV be fair for Skinner?

 

[ViD]

Worst contract since Price

Will make Panarin contract worth $10m plus

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not ignoring either. I'm just saying that considering he is one of the best even-strength goal scorers in the league, and that he is playing with Eichel, gives him a better than "anything is possible" chance. The one thing very much against him in this is his lack of power play goals. It's not such a radical position to take.

Not radical, but probably not likely either.

- Skinner has averaged 271 shots / year the past 4 years (when he has been fully healthy). This year, he shot 268 times.
- His career SH% is 11.2%. This past year, he shot 14.9%. While that is higher than average, he's shot 14.4% and 13.2% in prior seasons so it's not a real outlier.

Assuming he's going to continue to take 270 shots / year, his SH% would have to jump to 18.5% in order to hit 50 goals. If you look league-wide at guys that shoot > 240 times a season, here are the best SH% for those guys who shoot a lot.

- McDavid: 240 shots, 17.1%
- Kucherov: 245 shots, 16.7%
- Tavares: 286 shots, 16.4%
- Ovechkin: 338 shots, 15.1%
- Skinner: 268 shots, 14.9%

So Skinner would have to have a SH% that is a full 1.5% better than any other high volume shooter in the NHL had this past season, OR, he has to take 60 more shots in a season (like Ovi does). 50G is not impossible, but it's a very tall task.

 

[mashedpotato]

Smart and unfortunate for Buffalo. They really had no other choice if they still wanted to compete.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Not radical, but probably not likely either.

- Skinner has averaged 271 shots / year the past 4 years (when he has been fully healthy). This year, he shot 268 times.
- His career SH% is 11.2%. This past year, he shot 14.9%. While that is higher than average, he's shot 14.4% and 13.2% in prior seasons so it's not a real outlier.

Assuming he's going to continue to take 270 shots / year, his SH% would have to jump to 18.5% in order to hit 50 goals. If you look league-wide at guys that shoot > 240 times a season, here are the best SH% for those guys who shoot a lot.

- McDavid: 240 shots, 17.1%
- Kucherov: 245 shots, 16.7%
- Tavares: 286 shots, 16.4%
- Ovechkin: 338 shots, 15.1%
- Skinner: 268 shots, 14.9%

So Skinner would have to have a SH% that is a full 1.5% better than any other high volume shooter in the NHL had this past season, OR, he has to take 60 more shots in a season (like Ovi does). 50G is not impossible, but it's a very tall task.

I'm fine with "not likely." I'm not fine with not a remote chance in hell.

 

[TS Quint]

I'm fine with "not likely." I'm not fine with not a remote chance in hell.

How about a remote chance in China? If someone is wanting to make cash bets that he will hit 50 I’m in! If you’re expecting 50 out of him there is a very slim chance of you winning that bet.

 

[TS Quint]

Smart and unfortunate for Buffalo. They really had no other choice if they still wanted to compete.

Still? When were they competing?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm fine with "not likely." I'm not fine with not a remote chance in hell.

Matter of degrees I guess. Do you think there's a realistic chance he will either (a) improve his shot totals by > 60 (22%) over what he shot last year and the 3 prior years while maintaining a career high SH% while doing so? or (b) improve his SH% will increase a full 3.6% over his career high this year and a full 1.5% higher than any other high volume shooter in the NHL had this past season?

EDIT: the one way I can see him having at least a chance is for Buffalo and Skinner to figure out how to be more productive on the PP. The top goal scorers in the NHL almost always have double digit PP goals (OVi 18, Draisaitl 16, Stamkos 19) and Skinner had 8. Doubling his PP goals could give him a legit chance.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Not to derail the thread, but I've actually worked in the Marcellus and Bakkan Shale fields along with the Niabrara, the effects of fracking in the currently in the US collectively is less than one 6.7 earthquake with regards to chemical, sand and methane gas releases.
While it is most certainly an impact environmentally, it's overall impact nationwide is wholly insignificant over an estimated 110 year period when compared to just 5 major natural ground moving events. And while I profit through the process, your hyperbole of the process only works to further sew disinformation of it.

Okla went from 5 3.0 earthquakes or higher to 40, Texas from 2 to 12, such that insurance companies have increased their rates highlighting this risk and we haven’t even touched the impact on the water table yet and eminent domain yet....

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Still? When were they competing?

"Still wanted to compete" is different than "still compete." Just because you want something doesn't mean you'll get it.


I am not surprised that this contract is so universally despised. Other teams with impending free agents are mad that the sabres helped change the market. The thing is, this rise in player cost was inevitable. The second that young rookie/sophpmore centers were getting paid $10+ million a year, veteran scorers (regardless of position) were going to get a raise. Contract costs are in flux and wait until the next CBA negotiations.

Regarding Skinner, as a sabres fan i am thrilled we retained him. The cost is higher than i'd like, but not by the $3 million as too many of you have suggested. Skinner's even strength scoring and the way he gels with Eichel is well worth something in the $7-8 million dollar range. Skinner was willing to go to market and the sabres would have taken yet another step back if they let him, so they ponied up and paid the extra $1.5 million. If they didn't, someone else was going to.

For the rest of you who hate the trade because you generally hate the sabres, be glad that you have another round of ammo to fire off against this team in the future. I hope they're duds, but the expectations are too high, so you'll get your chance.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

So not gonna happen thou.

Then again, i might be wrong but at least 9 previous seasons would support my point.

Its highly unlikely that player who scores 27 goals per season for 9 years,
would all of the sudden score with 35+ avg,but... the goal scoring is up again so....

You're ignoring both of his concussion years and Eichel. 6.5 would be a steal.

This contract stinks like Okposo. Remember when he put up 64 points and everyone went “OMG 6 million/ year!”. Well that was only 8.22% of the cap. Skinner gets 11.32% for 63 points. Both had centers drag them to those point totals.

All that cash just to hope to be competing for 8th spot in the conference instead of being bottom 4 in the conference. I think I’m being generous here. If the Sabres were on the cusp of being a playoff team this year with a young core, finished in 9th place even I might get this.

This is just typical Sabres. Different GM same crap. They try to draft and develop for a few years, they get bored and try to over pay a FA to force themselves to be good before the team is ready.

I know Sabres fans...IF Eichel gets better, IF Dahlin takes the huge step forward we hope he does because draft position, IF Middlestat become what we wish he will be, IF Montour is a 2nd pairing savior, IF Reinhart can pull of another career high in points, IF we get first half Hutton....IF, IF, IF, IF.

That’s a lot of ifs just to reach the playoff line.

He's not Okposo lol, and most of your IFs have a 99% chance of happening (at least the important ones). Still a good chance for Mitts and Monty.

 

[threeVo]

Worst contract since Price

Will make Panarin contract worth $10m plus

Spoiler alert:

He already was

 

[1972]

Crazy overpayment.

 

[mashedpotato]

Still? When were they competing?

They're not tanking so... I'm not sure what the opposite is. I thought it'd be compete; they may not have the best chances, but their intention seems pretty clear : to win games.

 

[nuck]

Worst contract since Price

Will make Panarin contract worth $10m plus

I doubt that deals signed by less valuable players will do anything to Panarin's cost. He will be looking for the maximum buck from a desperate club, same as any UFA and its that desperation that may push his value up. He was never going to to take under $10M I think.

It seems like kind of a do or die move by the Sabres. I think if he had gone to UFA he doesn't get an offer close to $9 and he still resigns in Buffalo. Getting a job as Eichels finisher is a great gig and he has to know that. He should have given Botterill a discount instead of bending him over. Reinhart and Mittlestadt have to be celebrating. I wonder was this one on Botterill or Pegula?

 

[TS Quint]

"Still wanted to compete" is different than "still compete." Just because you want something doesn't mean you'll get it.


I am not surprised that this contract is so universally despised. Other teams with impending free agents are mad that the sabres helped change the market. The thing is, this rise in player cost was inevitable. The second that young rookie/sophpmore centers were getting paid $10+ million a year, veteran scorers (regardless of position) were going to get a raise. Contract costs are in flux and wait until the next CBA negotiations.

Regarding Skinner, as a sabres fan i am thrilled we retained him. The cost is higher than i'd like, but not by the $3 million as too many of you have suggested. Skinner's even strength scoring and the way he gels with Eichel is well worth something in the $7-8 million dollar range. Skinner was willing to go to market and the sabres would have taken yet another step back if they let him, so they ponied up and paid the extra $1.5 million. If they didn't, someone else was going to.

For the rest of you who hate the trade because you generally hate the sabres, be glad that you have another round of ammo to fire off against this team in the future. I hope they're duds, but the expectations are too high, so you'll get your chance.

I don’t hate the Sabers, or like them. They’re more irrelevant than anything.

The is problem is I don’t understand where this leaves the Sabers. Are they any better than last year? Maybe if a few young guys take some major steps forward. Is this signing putting them into Cup contention? I don’t think anyone is arguing that. Seems like with this signing it might push them into 8th place in the conference if everything goes right. When that includes a bunch of young players taking major steps or continuing to set career highs and hoping that some goaltender can play well for more than half a season, that’s a lot of things that need to fall into place.

If a team overpaid a player because they thought that would put them over the top and into Cup contention I’d get that. When you overpay a player just to be below average I don’t get that.

 

[TS Quint]

He's not Okposo lol, and most of your IFs have a 99% chance of happening (at least the important ones). Still a good chance for Mitts and Monty.

He is Okposo at the time of signing. You just hope he will continue his 60+ point seasons unlike what Okposo did.

99% eh? I guess you are in 1st place still in next year’s standings. Keep it positive!

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He is Okposo at the time of signing.

No, he's not. Skinner is an elite goal scorer. Okposo put up points playing with Tavares. At the time of their signings:

Okposo: 137 career goals (21 G / 82 game pace)
Skinner: 244 career goals (30G / 82 game pace)

People get focused on "points" but ignore that Skinner gets paid to score goals. He's not a playmaking assist guy, he's a goal scorer and one of the best in the game at it. Saying he's "Okposo" at the time of the signing is looking at 1 stat and completely ignoring everything else that matters.

 

[TS Quint]

They're not tanking so... I'm not sure what the opposite is. I thought it'd be compete; they may not have the best chances, but their intention seems pretty clear : to win games.

This doesn’t seem to be as black and white as you want it to be. It’s not tank or Win the Cup. This looks like they’re trying for average.

I hope I’m wrong but this just seems like another false start towards being a competitive team. The Sabers went into rebuilding hoping to acquire a group of good young prospects. Their drafting has been terrible. Now they’re just like “screw it! We planned on drafting for a few years to get a bunch of prospects. Now those year’s are over and it’s time to win”! But they forgot to get the prospects they tanked for and just decided to try and win without them. When you are as bad as the Sabers have been, 1 player/draft isn’t enough to turn it around.