Proposal: Bruins Trade Proposal - VI - (MOD in OP)

[BruinDust]

It sounds like your criticism is primarily because you are looking at this season as the “real” Heinen and dismissing last season as

“last year was well, last year”.

As RKW pointed out, that is probably not a good idea. I wouldn’t sell low on Heinen unless you were getting a higher end player that was also slumping.

To a GM assessing value in a trade,he's probably putting more stock in this year than last year.

The question is, which is the "real Heinen".

The guy who posted 38 points in his first 48 games last season.

Or the guy whose now posted just 15 in his last 62 games?

The fact is, the last 62 games, he's producing at the level of a 4th line hockey player. And this is with him spending almost zero time on the 4th line. He's been on the 2nd line, the 3rd line, and the PP.

Daniel Paille in 72 games in 2013-14, averaged a better GPG (0.125 to Heinen's 0.1129) and averaged just slightly under Paille's APG (0.125 to Heinen's 0.129) when compared to Heinen's last 62 games. And he did that with no PP time, being a fixture of the 4th line, and in a NHL that was lower scoring than it is today.

I don't think Heinen's a 4th line hockey player no more than I think Josh Anderson is a 30+ goal scorer. But you can't deny the sharp drop in production since mid-Feb of last year. I don't even dislike the kid, but the assessment of his trade value is crazy. 62 games of awful production isn't a small sample size, and Heinen has been given every opportunity.

We saw Jimmy Hayes production fall off a map at a certain point and never recover. We saw it happen to Beleskey as well. Is it out of the realm of possibility that this drop in production is the norm, and his first 48 games last year were an anomaly? It's happened to other players, why is Heinen immune to this possibility?

Brett Connolly in his last season here at the same age as Heinen outproduced what Heinen is doing now and he didn't even get a qualifying offer. Think about that for a second.

 

[GoBs]

Brayden Schenn having a slow year but I think the Bruins could get more out of him. Any rumors out there for Schenn?

 

[GloryDaze4877]

To a GM assessing value in a trade,he's probably putting more stock in this year than last year.

The question is, which is the "real Heinen".

The guy who posted 38 points in his first 48 games last season.

Or the guy whose now posted just 15 in his last 62 games?

The fact is, the last 62 games, he's producing at the level of a 4th line hockey player. And this is with him spending almost zero time on the 4th line. He's been on the 2nd line, the 3rd line, and the PP.

Daniel Paille in 72 games in 2013-14, averaged a better GPG (0.125 to Heinen's 0.1129) and averaged just slightly under Paille's APG (0.125 to Heinen's 0.129) when compared to Heinen's last 62 games. And he did that with no PP time, being a fixture of the 4th line, and in a NHL that was lower scoring than it is today.

I don't think Heinen's a 4th line hockey player no more than I think Josh Anderson is a 30+ goal scorer. But you can't deny the sharp drop in production since mid-Feb of last year. I don't even dislike the kid, but the assessment of his trade value is crazy. 62 games of awful production isn't a small sample size, and Heinen has been given every opportunity.

We saw Jimmy Hayes production fall off a map at a certain point and never recover. We saw it happen to Beleskey as well. Is it out of the realm of possibility that this drop in production is the norm, and his first 48 games last year were an anomaly? It's happened to other players, why is Heinen immune to this possibility?

Brett Connolly in his last season here at the same age as Heinen outproduced what Heinen is doing now and he didn't even get a qualifying offer. Think about that for a second.

The Connolly comparison is a bit disingenuous.

His last season in Boston was 15/16, which was his fifth year as a pro, after being drafted 6th overall and producing four inconsistent seasons split between the NHL and AHL. While the age was the same, the situations were far different.

 

[BruinDust]

The Connolly comparison is a bit disingenuous.

His last season in Boston was 15/16, which was his fifth year as a pro, after being drafted 6th overall and producing four inconsistent seasons split between the NHL and AHL. While the age was the same, the situations were far different.

Yes the situations aren't exactly the same, they aren't totally different either. And Connolly produced in 2015-16 MORE than Heinen is projecting for this season.

I'm not suggesting for one second that the Bruins non-tender Heinen if his production stays the same. I didn't like it when they non-tendered Connolly, I wouldn't like it if they non-tendered Heinen.

I noticed you ignored the Paille vs. Heinen production comparision despite Heinen being put in a much better position to produce points.

You act like there is absolutely zero chance that the production we see from Heinen today will be the production we see moving forward. If I was a betting man I'd bet that Heinen's production improves form what he's doing today. I'd also bet that he never touches 38 points in 48 games again. The "real Heinen" is likely somewhere in between.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Yes the situations aren't exactly the same, they aren't totally different either. And Connolly produced in 2015-16 MORE than Heinen is projecting for this season.

I'm not suggesting for one second that the Bruins non-tender Heinen if his production stays the same. I didn't like it when they non-tendered Connolly, I wouldn't like it if they non-tendered Heinen.

I noticed you ignored the Paille vs. Heinen production comparision despite Heinen being put in a much better position to produce points.

You act like there is absolutely zero chance that the production we see from Heinen today will be the production we see moving forward. If I was a betting man I'd bet that Heinen's production improves form what he's doing today. I'd also bet that he never touches 38 points in 48 games again. The "real Heinen" is likely somewhere in between.

No I didn’t ignore the Paille comparison, I’m in my car and can’t really devote much time to it

This is not the thread for this discussion and to be honest, I’m kind of sick of discussing it ad nauseum. I think Heinen is in a sophomore slump and is better than he’s showing this year. I don’t believe it would be a good idea to trade him at this point. He’s playing relatively well, but has nothing to show for it, so the B’s would be selling low.

 

[BruinDust]

No I didn’t ignore the Paille comparison, I’m in my car and can’t really devote much time to it

This is not the thread for this discussion and to be honest, I’m kind of sick of discussing it ad nauseum. I think Heinen is in a sophomore slump and is better than he’s showing this year. I don’t believe it would be a good idea to trade him at this point. He’s playing relatively well, but has nothing to show for it, so the B’s would be selling low.

I"m not looking to trade him either, I just don't think right now CBJ would even consider a Heinen for Anderson swap. But then again, they did sign Riley Nash to a 3-year contract, so maybe they appreciate medium-speed forwards more than I do.

Development curves are brought up all the time on this board. Every players development curve is different. I just think its a possibility that Heinen has developed has peaked and he is right now what he is, and inconsistent two-way winger that outside of his positioning and anticipation, doesn't excel in any one area, but is fairly average across the board when looking at his individual skill-sets. That cerebral stuff will only get him so far, and there are times I think he uses it as a short-cut or crutch in certain situations when what he really needs to be doing on a particular play is move his feet and legs faster.

 

[22Brad Park]

I"m not looking to trade him either, I just don't think right now CBJ would even consider a Heinen for Anderson swap. But then again, they did sign Riley Nash to a 3-year contract, so maybe they appreciate medium-speed forwards more than I do.

Development curves are brought up all the time on this board. Every players development curve is different. I just think its a possibility that Heinen has developed has peaked and he is right now what he is, and inconsistent two-way winger that outside of his positioning and anticipation, doesn't excel in any one area, but is fairly average across the board when looking at his individual skill-sets. That cerebral stuff will only get him so far, and there are times I think he uses it as a short-cut or crutch in certain situations when what he really needs to be doing on a particular play is move his feet and legs faster.

Its only his 2nd year relax.Bruins are thin as a group up front and lineup changes way to often .They need to set a group out there after Sweeney does what he does and stick with it.Changing guys steady throws them off as much as helps.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

if david backes was asked to waive and he agreed...

backes
Heinen
miller
to dallas
Hanzal {just got activated owed 1 more year at 4.75)
Ritchie {6'4 220 pound right wing with soft hands}
polok {a 7th dman making only 1.3 mill on a 1 year deal}

deal puts a lot of size in our lineup for those who think we are 'too small' we might lose better players in Heinen/miller but we save significant cap room

short term I think Hanzal can center marchand/pastnak until Bergeron comes back. id like to see Ritchie get a chance with debrusk. long term these guys might be relegated to 3rd line but that's ok too

low risk move that addresses a concern and cleans up some cap room issues

 

[Skelen]

What about the idea of bringing in Nuch from Dallas?

He's having an awful year so far but showed a lot of flash in his first coiple seasons with Dallas. They do owe us one after all...

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Sure it could, almost every trade has the potential to back-fire.

But from a pure value perspective the value right here today I don't think is even close.

I don't think Heinen finishes with 17 points. I don't think Anderson finishes with 35 goals. But lets say Anderson levels off around 25 goals, and Heinen rises to 25-30 points, I'm taking that big physical 25 goal scorer over whatever Heinen and his 30 points are.

Trading Heinen for Anderson isn't selling low, the Bruins would be getting the better player right here today on Dec. 4/2018. It's not like your giving up on Heinen for prospects and picks.

Here's the other thing about Heinen, he isn't all that young anymore. He'll be 24 soon. It's very well possible that last season was the best season he may ever have production wise.

trading a guy who had 47 points as a rookie because he's off to a slow start the very next season on an injury-riddled team is the very definition of selling low. like how is this particular point even up for debate?

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Could we please just stop with the ridiculous NHL19 proposals and come up with realistic ideas...

I honestly hope that these aren’t serious and just being thrown out there for entertainment value.

 

[22Brad Park]

I need to see this team with all the players back a couple games to get an honest look at what is needed it has been so long since i saw it.Tonites game just kind of left me speechless

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Could we please just stop with the ridiculous NHL19 proposals and come up with realistic ideas...

I honestly hope that these aren’t serious and just being thrown out there for entertainment value.

I know you are capable of putting together trade offers... seen your work up close in our sim... but I have to challenge you to add some here too

its not easy to come up with 'realistic' ideas that would please everyone

 

[bp13]

I need to see this team with all the players back a couple games to get an honest look at what is needed it has been so long since i saw it.Tonites game just kind of left me speechless

Bergeron is the only injured forward. You really need to see him back to confirm that we need help up front?

As for the D, I’m comfortable we have enough back there. And the farm is strong, or at least it better be.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

They have maybe the deepest 1-12 D in the league and have some gaping holes in the forward group. Maybe I'm oversimplifying but it seems to me that maybe they should trade from their surplus in D to bolster the forward group. I can't stand to watch too many games like the shitshow we saw tonight.

 

[The don godfather]

Can a virtanen for heinan deal work out?

 

[missingchicklet]

They have maybe the deepest 1-12 D in the league and have some gaping holes in the forward group. Maybe I'm oversimplifying but it seems to me that maybe they should trade from their surplus in D to bolster the forward group. I can't stand to watch too many games like the ****show we saw tonight.

There's no question any trade to bring in offense will have to involve something from the D. The Bs cannot afford to lose any of the little offense they already have. The only forwards that have any value cannot be traded because by trading them it would create another hole. Hate to lose a quality d-man or two, but the team is deep there and weak offensively. No sense in hoarding d-men since only so many are needed. Have to trade quality in order to get quality.

 

[KrejciWinger]

Can a virtanen for heinan deal work out?

Virtanen on the rise, Heinen on the decline. Canucks say no

 

[sarge88]

Biggest issue they have is that the young guys who they counted on, that so many people here were against trading in the off season, have now lost value.

 

[BruinDust]

trading a guy who had 47 points as a rookie because he's off to a slow start the very next season on an injury-riddled team is the very definition of selling low. like how is this particular point even up for debate?

Selling Low belongs right up there with Asset Management as two of the most ridiculous statements on HF Boards. This isn't the stock market, if your trading Heinen it's because he's underperformed and you think your improving your team by what your bringing in. He's almost 24, its reasonable to believe he may just be what we see right now, this is the player he'll be. 47 points as a rookie, 38 of them pre-mid February. It's also reasonable to believe he will get out of this 60+ game funk he's been in. I wouldn't imagine his confidence right now is very high.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Selling Low belongs right up there with Asset Management as two of the most ridiculous statements on HF Boards. This isn't the stock market, if your trading Heinen it's because he's underperformed and you think your improving your team by what your bringing in. He's almost 24, its reasonable to believe he may just be what we see right now, this is the player he'll be. 47 points as a rookie, 38 of them pre-mid February. It's also reasonable to believe he will get out of this 60+ game funk he's been in. I wouldn't imagine his confidence right now is very high.

how is it a ridiculous statement? when a player has shown that they have the capability to produce at a certain level and then you trade them at the first hint of adversity that is just a poor, reactionary approach.

this is the same logic that led to trading Tyler Seguin after an awful 1 goal in 22 games stretch and trading Reilly Smith for a stiff like Jimmy Hayes after Smith had his own "sophomore slump".

Seguin had 37 goals the next year and Smith had 25 goals the year after he was traded.

So yes, "selling low" is a thing when you know a player has the talent to produce and decide to trade them when they are at their lowest value. You keep saying it's reasonable to believe that at 24, Heinen will never be anything more than the ice cold player we've seen so far this year, but it's more reasonable to believe that if you give him a couple months he'll actually put up some points because we have already seen that he's capable of doing so and he's actually not playing poorly if you look beyond his point totals.

If trading him improves the organization in the long-run I'm all for it, but do it when he's actually producing and is an attractive asset to other teams, not when he's on a 17 point pace and you won't get shit for him.

I feel like I'm in the twilight zone explaining this to a long-time Bruins fan when we've seen this very thing burn them numerous times over the years.

 

[BruinDust]

how is it a ridiculous statement? when a player has shown that they have the capability to produce at a certain level and then you trade them at the first hint of adversity that is just a poor, reactionary approach.

this is the same logic that led to trading Tyler Seguin after an awful 1 goal in 22 games stretch and trading Reilly Smith for a stiff like Jimmy Hayes after Smith had his own "sophomore slump".

Seguin had 37 goals the next year and Smith had 25 goals the year after he was traded.

So yes, "selling low" is a thing when you know a player has the talent to produce and decide to trade them when they are at their lowest value. You keep saying it's reasonable to believe that at 24, Heinen will never be anything more than the ice cold player we've seen so far this year, but it's more reasonable to believe that if you give him a couple months he'll actually put up some points because we have already seen that he's capable of doing so and he's actually not playing poorly if you look beyond his point totals.

If trading him improves the organization in the long-run I'm all for it, but do it when he's actually producing and is an attractive asset to other teams, not when he's on a 17 point pace and you won't get **** for him.

I feel like I'm in the twilight zone explaining this to a long-time Bruins fan when we've seen this very thing burn them numerous times over the years.

This is the "first hint of adversity". Heinen has just 15 points in his last 63 NHL games now, that's 3/4 of a season. That 38 points in his 48 games could be the easily be the anomaly, not the other way around. You make it sound like he'd be the first player ever whose rookie season ended up being their best season production-wise. Fact is that happening is fairly common. Rookies come in, the opposition figures them out, learns what their tendences are. Confidence wains, never really returns to where it was.

 

[TaroTsujimoto]

That cerebral stuff will only get him so far, and there are times I think he uses it as a short-cut or crutch in certain situations when what he really needs to be doing on a particular play is move his feet and legs faster.

Maybe that's why Cassidy doesn't seem to like him that much (it really surprised me when he benched Heinen in the playoffs). Heinen never looks "faster" or "slower"--he looks exactly the same no matter what the game situation or score. Not only does he lack an extra gear, there is never any apparent urgency to his game.

 

[sarge88]

This is the "first hint of adversity". Heinen has just 15 points in his last 63 NHL games now, that's 3/4 of a season. That 38 points in his 48 games could be the easily be the anomaly, not the other way around. You make it sound like he'd be the first player ever whose rookie season ended up being their best season production-wise. Fact is that happening is fairly common. Rookies come in, the opposition figures them out, learns what their tendences are. Confidence wains, never really returns to where it was.

Maybe instead of being unlucky for the last 70ish games, he was just lucky for the first 48?

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

This is the "first hint of adversity". Heinen has just 15 points in his last 63 NHL games now, that's 3/4 of a season. That 38 points in his 48 games could be the easily be the anomaly, not the other way around. You make it sound like he'd be the first player ever whose rookie season ended up being their best season production-wise. Fact is that happening is fairly common. Rookies come in, the opposition figures them out, learns what their tendences are. Confidence wains, never really returns to where it was.

I'm saying there are good players who have entire seasons where they suck in otherwise productive careers. When I say "first hint of adversity" i mean in the grand scheme of things. Not just a handful of games but a really rough stretch. This is probably the first time in his career that he's had such a cold stretch. Young players have that and need to overcome it. That's why the "sophomore slump" is even a thing, because it happens with some regularity. I'm watching him every night and paying extra attention to him because I really want him to produce because frankly the Bruins need offensive help and it's not coming from outside the org. What I'm seeing is a guy who does not look like a 17 point forward. He looks good to me. We know the skill is there and he has a very high hockey IQ. You admitted yourself earlier that he's probably not the 17 point guy we've seen in the last couple months. Do you really believe that there's a high likelihood that he's going to just fall off the face of the earth after a 47 point rookie season? Even if he averages 35 points for the rest of his career I'd sure as hell rather trade him once that is apparent instead of doing it when he's at his all time lowest point.

I think on a very good team he's a very good 3rd liner. I don't think trading him for a guy like Josh Anderson who has proven no more than Heinen makes this team better right now, especially if he's playing in your bottom 6 which already has enough grit and not enough skill.

Also I don't understand why you are so happy to accept that Josh Anderson, who is older than Heinen is surely going to continue improving, but Heinen, the younger player is never going to have a good offensive season again. Honestly it sounds to me like you've got your mind made up about the two players already and are just tailoring your argument to fit that opinion.