Prospect Info: Bruins Prospects XVII - Stay on subject!

[Saxon Eric]

Notre Dame's goalie.

Pfft...

 

[burstnbloom]

Look at Championship rosters in the NHL over the last decade and you'll see they had strong bottom-six performers who can play in all situations, go out there and grind down their opponents. You absolutely need guys like that and in my opinion, with my draft philosophy, taking someone who can foot the bill on that at No. 30 OA is completely fine.

It's unrealistic to build the top-half of your roster when selecting towards the end of the first round and matter of fact it's a statistical anomaly.

I look at the Beecher pick in the same light that I look at the Coyle trade. Bruins traded Ryan Donato, an offensive catalyst with upside, for a third-line, middle-six center in Coyle who drives possession and is clearly a glue guy to the locker room to boot. The Bruins did something similar here, IMO, when it comes to taking Beecher over Kaliyev or Hoglander. At the top of their game, those two project to be solid point producers and a potential high-end scorer in Kaliyev.

But what do they offer your team when the puck isn't on their stick, checking is tight (playoffs) and you need to survive the last 10 minutes of a third-period with the game on the line? Probably not as much of a Beecher type.

Though this does speak to the larger issue of some of us (not saying you) not placing proper value into metrics aside from points. Points are a weird thing anyways because a secondary assist and primary assist, depending on how it's generated, isn't nearly as impressive or valuable as a straight up goal is. So if Beecher had 12 more secondary assists this year, we would all be arbitrarily looking at the production and saying "Wow, he's doing SO well" even though that might not even be the case.

Those points could have come because he was just letting his line do the heavy lifting and moving the puck quickly to them in his own zone before they go off to the races by themselves, you know?

Transition, zone-entry and possession metrics are more valuable in my eyes than stat checking for how many points someone in Beecher's situation is racking up as he was never going to be a big-time point producer from day one.

This is absolutely right, of course.

These are the 28th, 29th and 30th picks in the draft from 2007-2017 (figured 4.5 years out is enough to get a feel for whether someone is something). It seems like getting a regular third of fourth liner out of those picks is a real rarity. in that ten year period there are 3 top 6 players and no one truly elite. Coyle, Beauvillier, Hartman, Rackell and Kempe are the really good players out of 30+ picks. You're lucking if you get a guy like Brady Skjei, who is probably a #5 at best. Most of these players never amount to much. I don't get why Beecher becoming a 3rd liner would be a bad outcome.

2017- Jokiharju, Tolvanen, Kosten
2016- Johansen, Frederic, Steel
2015- Beauvillier, Carlsson, Merkley
2014- Ho-Sang, Kempe, Quenneville
2013- Klimchuk, Dickinson, Hartman
2012- Skjei, Matteau, Pearson
2011- Phillips, Jensen, Rakell
2010- Coyle, Etem, Nelson
2009- Olsen, Ashton, Despres
2008- Tikhonov, Leville, McCollum
2007- Petrecki, O'Brien, Ross

Apples to oranges. Brandon Carlo is a shut-down type defender capable of skating well and driving the puck with his feet, he just doesn't have the high-end puck skills to make a difference with the puck on his blade, so his sizing thing gets brought up more often because people see someone 6'5" and immediately crave violence.

Lohrei's high-end abilities with the puck on his blade, vision and confidence, paired with his size, has a much bigger impact than him "playing big" and crushing people or whatever it is people want to see out of 6'4" players. Lohrei is nearly impossible to contain when setup with the puck on his stick and that's certainly due to his physical frame and size. He just uses it to leverage different opportunities on the ice that other big players simply can't, so the need to be crushing guys left and right is diminished.

Lohrei will need to be stronger and sometimes more aggressive on the defensive side of things, but don't get me wrong, he still won't hesitate to cross the line and throw a questionable hit or take the puck. The difference is because of his unique skills he's afforded the luxury of playing and utilizing his size in his own ways.

I think the data on those charts back this up pretty well. He's elite amongst his peers on the offensive side of the ice. Most of his defensive issues are appear to be about figuring out how to use that big frame. A guy his size and skill level won't lose a ton of puck battles at 27 years old. He just won't. So he's showing some weakness in that part of his game but I can't imagine its a long term problem, and the rest of his game is playing way up against his peers in the big 10. Exciting stuff.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Monday Night Wrap

Gallagher 1 assist -1 4-3 win, quiet and safe game from Ty, they advance

Kuntar 5 shots +1 3-1 loss, thought he played well, looks good on the first line, time to turn pro?

Also Sunday Night
Harrison 1 assist 2 shots +2

Only line that was really threatening against the Huskies. I think Kuntars game can be effective for the PBruins.

 

[veganbruin]

Only line that was really threatening against the Huskies. I think Kuntars game can be effective for the PBruins.

He’s lookin bigger these days. Maybe just playing with Giles makes him play bigger, but he was involved in everything below the goal line and infront of the net.

 

[Tbaybruin]

If the GM I am building a top 6 and a bottom 6

there are traits for both

if I’m picking high 1-25 I’m going skill over grit

Beecher was 30? And was on NTDP and I watched him so I knew a lot about him - he is big - very big and very fast and was physical so I was all over him

I was so sick of this place lol saying the Bruins are soft and draft small guys I was glad they took him - and Lohrei

we got a bunch of people here who draft likes it’s basketball

I didn’t have a problem with Beecher

I had a problem with Frederic but the guy I wanted over Frederic they got in second round Lindgren

I had no problem with the pick at all. I just don’t think you comment and say we drafted a guy for our bottom 6.

 

[Tbaybruin]

Go check out the 2019 draft and see how many players drafted after Beecher look like future top 6 forwards.

Yes, that’s why every draft is different. So much depends on what’s left on the table when a team makes a pick

 

[Saxon Eric]

Quick! hide the prospects, they're about to do something stupid!

 

[Saxon Eric]

Tuesday night wrap

Quinn Olson 1 goal (6th) 3 shots +1 2-2 tie officially that St Cloud won in a shootout
Olson has 19 points in 27 games

 

[CDJ]

This is absolutely right, of course.

These are the 28th, 29th and 30th picks in the draft from 2007-2017 (figured 4.5 years out is enough to get a feel for whether someone is something). It seems like getting a regular third of fourth liner out of those picks is a real rarity. in that ten year period there are 3 top 6 players and no one truly elite. Coyle, Beauvillier, Hartman, Rackell and Kempe are the really good players out of 30+ picks. You're lucking if you get a guy like Brady Skjei, who is probably a #5 at best. Most of these players never amount to much. I don't get why Beecher becoming a 3rd liner would be a bad outcome.

2017- Jokiharju, Tolvanen, Kosten
2016- Johansen, Frederic, Steel
2015- Beauvillier, Carlsson, Merkley
2014- Ho-Sang, Kempe, Quenneville
2013- Klimchuk, Dickinson, Hartman
2012- Skjei, Matteau, Pearson
2011- Phillips, Jensen, Rakell
2010- Coyle, Etem, Nelson
2009- Olsen, Ashton, Despres
2008- Tikhonov, Leville, McCollum
2007- Petrecki, O'Brien, Ross






I think the data on those charts back this up pretty well. He's elite amongst his peers on the offensive side of the ice. Most of his defensive issues are appear to be about figuring out how to use that big frame. A guy his size and skill level won't lose a ton of puck battles at 27 years old. He just won't. So he's showing some weakness in that part of his game but I can't imagine its a long term problem, and the rest of his game is playing way up against his peers in the big 10. Exciting stuff.

super exciting that Lohrei’s skill is already flashing in such a big way. He can become more physical and defensively sound was he fills out and gains experience- you can’t teach vision, creativity, and high end skill though and he’s got plenty of it

 

[burstnbloom]

super exciting that Lohrei’s skill is already flashing in such a big way. He can become more physical and defensively sound was he fills out and gains experience- you can’t teach vision, creativity, and high end skill though and he’s got plenty of it

agreed. You can teach positioning. Anyone of his talent level can be brought up to "passable" defensively. Derek Forbort makes $3m in the NHL just bc he's big. Lohrei can do what he does defensively (not much) I think with a couple years of pro experience. You can't teach what he does on the other end. What a weird prospect with a weird path ha.

 

[Saxon Eric]

Excellent read

 

[MPL56]

Quick! hide the prospects, they're about to do something stupid!

I’m thinking the exact same thing. Hope not.

 

[rocketdan9]

This is very encouraging data for Beecher. You can see why he doesn't rack up the points but might with better players. The zone entries with the puck on his stick bar is extremely high. He grades out like a potentially good complimentary offensive player who might rack up more points with good rush players. He clearly struggles with passing. Maybe that improves with time. It sets his ceiling a bit higher than I had thought. Maybe a Kreider ceiling (not this season's outlier Krieder, the rest of his career) and a Boone Jenner type middle outcome? I think his floor is probably a good PK fourth liner. Before seeing those numbers I kind of thought a guy like Jenner was his absolute ceiling so that's exciting.

Sounds like Coyle Jr.

 

[burstnbloom]

Sounds like Coyle Jr.

He kind of looks like Charlie sometimes out there. He's a lot faster though.

 

[DKH]

Look at Championship rosters in the NHL over the last decade and you'll see they had strong bottom-six performers who can play in all situations, go out there and grind down their opponents. You absolutely need guys like that and in my opinion, with my draft philosophy, taking someone who can foot the bill on that at No. 30 OA is completely fine.

It's unrealistic to build the top-half of your roster when selecting towards the end of the first round and matter of fact it's a statistical anomaly.

I look at the Beecher pick in the same light that I look at the Coyle trade. Bruins traded Ryan Donato, an offensive catalyst with upside, for a third-line, middle-six center in Coyle who drives possession and is clearly a glue guy to the locker room to boot. The Bruins did something similar here, IMO, when it comes to taking Beecher over Kaliyev or Hoglander. At the top of their game, those two project to be solid point producers and a potential high-end scorer in Kaliyev.

But what do they offer your team when the puck isn't on their stick, checking is tight (playoffs) and you need to survive the last 10 minutes of a third-period with the game on the line? Probably not as much of a Beecher type.

Though this does speak to the larger issue of some of us (not saying you) not placing proper value into metrics aside from points. Points are a weird thing anyways because a secondary assist and primary assist, depending on how it's generated, isn't nearly as impressive or valuable as a straight up goal is. So if Beecher had 12 more secondary assists this year, we would all be arbitrarily looking at the production and saying "Wow, he's doing SO well" even though that might not even be the case.

Those points could have come because he was just letting his line do the heavy lifting and moving the puck quickly to them in his own zone before they go off to the races by themselves, you know?

Transition, zone-entry and possession metrics are more valuable in my eyes than stat checking for how many points someone in Beecher's situation is racking up as he was never going to be a big-time point producer from day one.

Exactly

when you are picking late 20’s the known skilled guys are gone

Would you rather be late in buffet line or near or first in the dessert line

 

[rocketdan9]

He kind of looks like Charlie sometimes out there. He's a lot faster though.

So like a Coyle and Kuraly mix?

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

I hope Beecher is one of those guys that gets to the pros and let’s his nasty out more frequently.

 

[burstnbloom]

So like a Coyle and Kuraly mix?

I'm not the expert by any means but I had hung a Boone Jenner comp on him earlier in the thread. Kuraly seems like the floor (assuming he doesn't flame all the way out).

 

[Saxon Eric]

Thursday Night Schedule

BU vs Providence 7pm NESN+

 

[DKH]

You guys want to bring up 2015 go for it but I don’t see how 2020 & 2021 can be looked at anything less then glowingly

other than not taking Dylan Duke I was like ‘damn’ they are ripping up this 21 draft

 

[DKH]

Lou don’t hate me stealing all this from you but showing not just me waiving Pom poms

Oskar Jellvik at eliteprospects.com

Going to BC (with Cutter Gauthier) and captain

absolute bleepin steal - I think Dom is high on him but I tried to verify but I can’t

this is just sick in a good way

He pre-scans for teammates, controls skating to not overshoot pockets of space to support plays, gets defenders on his back in possession to extend it, and he hides his next play. There is also some pre-planned manipulation upon receiving the puck. -EliteProspects 2021 NHL Draft Guide

 

[Saxon Eric]

Thursday Night scoreboard

BU beats Providence 4-1
Gallagher 3 shots played on the 2nd pair
Duran had 1 shot and started on the 3rd line, @ RW

 

[Saxon Eric]

Friday Night Schedule

Clarkson vs Princeton 7pm Espn+

BC vs UConn 7pm NESN+

North Dakota vs Colorado College 7pm

Minnesota Duluth vs Denver 9pm

Ohio State vs Minnesota 630pm Big10 Network

Michigan vs Michigan State 730pm

Fargo vs Tri City 805pm Hockey TV

Dubuque vs Waterloo 805pm Hockey TV

Oshawa vs Ottawa 7pm

Sarnia vs Soo 707pm

Vancouver vs Prince George 10pm

 

[BruinsNetwork]

Haven't caught up on the other questions in here yet, but I don't think we talk enough about Jack Ahcan in terms of potential game-changing prospects. Small? Yes. Weak and ineffective? Absolutely not. Kirk had a great quote from HCRM on Ahcan and his "free-flowing" offensive game and it hits the nail on the head. Watching him play is a treat and I haven't seen this level of composure, impact and details in a defenders game through Providence since Grzelcyk came through.

Ahcan is one of the most effective players not only in Providence, but I’d argue the AHL as a whole. He’s certainly got that Krug-type style of game, but he’s more agile, quick and deft with the puck on his stick whereas Krug was more power-based.

What’s most impressive is how efficient he is at cutting down angles and using his center of gravity to leverage himself in board battles, sometimes against players much, much bigger than him.

His age and size are both legitimate questions (though minor, IMO) moving forward and yet he still checks almost every single box I look for. Would love to see him get more reps in Boston, preferably alongside Carlo in place of Reilly. I think that’s a move that could genuinely help all parties involved.

TL;DR: Jack Ahcan is a hell of a player and appears poised to make an NHL-level impact as soon as today.

 

[BruinsNetwork]

Also, mentioned this in the Providence thread, but I’m back. I haven’t had to the time to cut as many clips these days working a full-time job outside of hockey media stuff, but I’m certainly watching, observing and taking notes all the same.

Ask me some stuff and I’ll see what I can do.

(Don’t be too weird because my ignore list is growing exponentially)