Wanted to get this thread going again now that Boeser is done for the year. This article (
Dellow: The Canucks should wait on extending Brock Boeser)
compares Boeser to Eberle saying that the Canucks should wait to sign him with the thought that Boeser has outplayed his value this season. In recent posts, others have used Draisaitl, Gaudreau's, and Tarasenko's contract figure as comparisons. Here are my thoughts:
Comparing Boeser's campaign this season shouldn't be compared to Eberle's second season. Yes, the author is comparing statistics from both player's second season within their entry level contracts, but the reality is that Boeser's first year of his contract was used up in 9 games at the end of a season. Eberly had a full year of NHL play under his belt before putting up 76 points in his sophomore season. As young player, experience is typically the biggest hurdle to success in pro sports. Boeser has done extremely well right out of the gun, and would consider this to be his first year of true experience, despite it being his second year on his contract. College players love to burn a contract year by jumping up for a few games following their college season as it really only proves advantageous to the player. If they perform early, the teams have only 1 season plus a few games to determine the player's value in order to attempt to get the player signed long-term at a discount. if they wait until the end of the player's ELC, they risk having to pay him even more if the player continues their success.
Regarding previous posts to player's like Tarasenko, Gaudreau etc. Statistically this could be warranted. But in terms of finances, you need to take into account the differences in salary cap year over year. It's typically better to understand what percentage of the team's overall cap that a player could take up. I know some people say McDavid's contract takes up so much room, or even McDavid's and Draisaitl's combined. But the combination of these two contracts takes up less space percentage wise than crosby's and malkin's contract did when the penguins signed them to long-term contracts. That being said, Draisaitl is not Malkin by any means, but McDavid's could actually be considered a discount for the oilers in relative terms to the cap.
So the question is, what is Boeser worth, and do the Canucks wait to see if he performs next year. Based on his play, I think Boeser is probably worth more than the 6-6.5 range just because the contracts pay more now than they did when tarasenko signed, and even when Gaudreau signed. Is he worth 9? I wouldn't say he is yet, I think they would overpay, at least at this point. Even if he has a similar year next year, they won't pay much more than 9 so I think it's prudent for the Canucks to wait. At this point, I think 7.5/year would probably be a happy median. If he has a poor year next year, he'll still get in the 6 range, so they wouldn't be saving much in 1-1.5M/year. They risk a little more by waiting another year, but at that point we know he's probably worth a ton. Ideally, I'd like to see the contract get figured out early to mid-season next year. if he continues his pace, they can probably save some money by signing him early and they'll have some more evidence of his capabilities.