Brighter Future: Edmonton or Toronto?

[TheNumber4]

It isn't a narrative. Trust me, I did not believe it at all before the draft or even after the draft. But the numbers do not lie. The fact that Matthews is second in the entire league in HD chances generated behind McDavid himself as a ROOKIE compared to SOPHOMORE McDavid is extremely telling. And it's even more telling that Matthews black hole winger happens to be third in those same chances, BECAUSE OF MATTHEWS. I am the last person to be stupidly biased and lacking objectivity. I prefer stats because they paint a clear picture. What separates Matthews and McDavid right now is the huge gulf in secondary assists (this is painted much clearer in how Matthews Primary P/60 is higher than McDavids but overall P/60 is in McDavid's favour; the obvious defining factor being secondary assists). Secondary assists for the most part (and by most, I mean HUGE) are dependent on line mates. Which is exactly why the numbers regarding Hyman tell the story they do. Is it any coincidence that Matthews has been producing now that he got another extended run with Nylander? No. He played a large portion of the season with guys like Brown and Hyman. Brown is a decent player, but not Nylander/Draisatl level of talent. And Maroon >> Hyman with no second thoughts.

And still none of what you said and none of the "objective" cherry picked stats you use shows that Matthews is generational. He's not. He's a good player. But everyone non homer glasses leafs fan and neutral fans in this league know that he's NOT GENERATIONAL.

 

[Eyedea]

Well advanced stats are generally predictive of future performance. If Matthews is creating high danger scoring chances for his linemates and they aren't producing at even a below average rate, then we can say that his point totals should continue to improve once his linemates' scoring regresses to the mean.

 

[Moorpheus*]

Selanne - 76
Bossy - 53
Ovechkin - 52
Nieuwendyk - 51
Hawerchuk - 45
Robataille - 45
Martin - 44
Pederson - 44
Larmer - 43
Lemieux - 43
Lindros - 41
Sutter - 40

So where is matthews in the top 5?

Ok I apologize, didn't realize the NHL website didn't include those.

I guess Matthews will have to likely just settle for somewhere in the top 10.

So not quite generational compared to guys scoring on midget goalies who wouldn't butterfly, were wearing 31" pads and couldn't make a senior A team playing the way they did back then today.

 

[Apotheosis]

And still none of what you said and none of the "objective" cherry picked stats you use shows that Matthews is generational. He's not. He's a good player. But everyone non homer glasses leafs fan and neutral fans in this league know that he's NOT GENERATIONAL.

Listen, I won't try to convince you of anything any longer. The stats are there. They aren't cherry picked at all. They are there in plain daylight. I do not have any intentions of arguing this any further as I do not want to add any flame wars to an already unstable main page. Have a good night.

 

[TheNumber4]

Adjusted for era Matthews' rookie goal total is better than all those names except Selanne and Bossy (and Ovechkin).

And yet notice how Selanne, Bossy, AND to certain degree Ovie who are ALL better goal scorers than Matthews and POINT producers are still not conclusively deemed generational?

This conversation is NOT about whether Matthews is a good player or not. No one anyone denies that he's good. But he is NOT generational. And no amount of cherry picking ONLY goals will prove that. Even in the rookie goal scoring example it shows that hes NOT generational.

 

[TheNumber4]

Listen, I won't try to convince you of anything any longer. The stats are there. They aren't cherry picked at all. They are there in plain daylight. I do not have any intentions of arguing this any further as I do not want to add any flame wars to an already unstable main page. Have a good night.

have a nice night.

 

[Moorpheus*]

And still none of what you said and none of the "objective" cherry picked stats you use shows that Matthews is generational. He's not. He's a good player. But everyone non homer glasses leafs fan and neutral fans in this league know that he's NOT GENERATIONAL.

Agreed, being a top 3 nhl goal scorer for rookies in the past 20 years/=generational, what do Leafs fans think? Just because someone is in the top 3 of a generation in a category doesn't mean they could be considered generational. However McDavid is generational because although his point totals relative to the past 10 years are hardly something unheard of, but more so because we have to compare him to players today, it's fair if we era adjust McDavid, but not Matthews then we get into Leafs homerism.

 

[Muggs]

Listen, I won't try to convince you of anything any longer. The stats are there. They aren't cherry picked at all. They are there in plain daylight. I do not have any intentions of arguing this any further as I do not want to add any flame wars to an already unstable main page. Have a good night.

You aren't going to find any crumbs there my friend. Just accept that 'there can only be one' and watch reluctantly as little Auston chugs along like that little engine that could.

Is he a dream? Nah, but he's a tin can.

 

[Moorpheus*]

And yet notice how Selanne, Bossy, AND to certain degree Ovie who are ALL better goal scorers than Matthews and POINT producers are still not conclusively deemed generational?

This conversation is NOT about whether Matthews is a good player or not. No one anyone denies that he's good. But he is NOT generational. And no amount of cherry picking ONLY goals will prove that. Even in the rookie goal scoring example it shows that hes NOT generational.

Bossy was a generational goal scorer, he could've been a top 5-10 player were it not for his injuries.

Selanne had one good year and then came back down to star level.

Also lmfao if you think Ovie isn't generational, I have literally never heard anyone argue otherwise.

I guess McDavid is generational because when you look at his point total compared to the league TODAY (not in the past 10 years becaue that's not fair), he's whooping ass, but Matthews isn't generational despite being a top 2 NHL goal scorer since the lockout because of..........well reasons, LEAFS HOMERISM!

 

[TheNumber4]

Only on HF are advanced stats more important than actual point production.

Its more so cherry picked stats (only goals matter) rather than an advanced stats argument. If they went the advanced stat route Matthews doesn't even crack the top 30.

 

[Pastor Of Muppets]

Matthews may not be generational such as Sid/McDavid but he's a damn fine player, and a 40g rookie campaign is A-Okay in my books.

Going to be interesting to see if he can rack up more assist next season while still getting around 35g+ -ish.

Another Canucks fan here,and I don't care for the Oilers or Leafs..but I do enjoy watching skilled players regardless of the sweater...

Matthews is a great player who would be classified as elite...McDavid is another level altogether.,that extra 3% of talent that he has over other players..is what wins championships.

 

[Eyedea]

And yet notice how Selanne, Bossy, AND to certain degree Ovie who are ALL better goal scorers than Matthews and POINT producers are still not conclusively deemed generational?

This conversation is NOT about whether Matthews is a good player or not. No one anyone denies that he's good. But he is NOT generational. And no amount of cherry picking ONLY goals will prove that. Even in the rookie goal scoring example it shows that hes NOT generational.

Bossy and Ovechkin are generational, Selanne never really managed to replicate his rookie season but he was nonetheless an elite player.

 

[biotk]

Love how you have to put the 20 years* qualifier to conveniently discount the rookie goal scoring of Selanne, Bossy, Nieuwendyk, Hawerchuk, Robitaille, Martin, Pederson, and even true generational talent like Lindros (before he was injured) who ALL scored more goals in their rookie season that Matthews.

Such a qualifier makes sense when the league has become a significantly lower scoring league.

Matthews is currently second in the league in goals as D+1. The only D+1 teenager on your list was Hawerchuk who was 12th in the league in goals. Bossy was also D+1, but 21 years old and finished 2nd. Lindros was D+2 and didn't make the top 20 in goals. Pederson was tied for 14th, D+2, and wasn't even close to leading his own team in goals. Rick Martin was 21 and 6th in the league, Robitaille was 9th and D+3. Nieuwendyk was D+3 and finished 5th. Selanne tied for first in goals, but was D+5.

Adjusted goals:
Selanne 62
Bossy 47
Martin 43
Nieuwendyk 43
Robitaille 38
Lindros 33
Hawerchuk 33
Pederson 32
Matthews is currently at 46.

 

[TheNumber4]

Bossy was a generational goal scorer, he could've been a top 5-10 player were it not for his injuries.

Selanne had one good year and then came back down to star level.

Also lmfao if you think Ovie isn't generational, I have literally never heard anyone argue otherwise.

I guess McDavid is generational because when you look at his point total compared to the league TODAY (not in the past 10 years becaue that's not fair), he's whooping ass, but Matthews isn't generational despite being a top 2 NHL goal scorer since the lockout because of..........well reasons, LEAFS HOMERISM!

Perfect! You admit that Matthews is not a generational player. He's a "generational goal scorer." EVERYONE in the hockey community talks about those famed "generational goal scorers"

I never said Ovie wasn't generational. I said there was a debate whether he is or not, and there IS. Nice strawman attempt though! You've never heard that debate? That doesn't surprise me because it's become apparent that you like to ignore facts and reality to support your narrative bubble or outright lie.

McDavid is generational for OBVIOUS reasons. No one anywhere said it's unfair to compare his numbers ERA adjusted (which would STILL show that he's generational unlike Matthews). Stop with the strawman arguments and argue the ACTUAL debate people are having.

 

[Muggs]

Another Canucks fan here,and I don't care for the Oilers or Leafs..but I do enjoy watching skilled players regardless of the sweater...

Matthews is a great player who would be classified as elite...McDavid is another level altogether.,that extra 3% of talent that he has over other players..is what wins championships.

Preach. I got minimum 4 Cups. Kid is generational.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The oilers are one solid top 4D (Green type D) away from being cup favourites for a long time IMO. Toronto has more holes to fill.

not really, we have the same main hole, I suspect both teams will want new backup goalies

other than that no, I'd say both teams have the same holes

 

[TheNumber4]

Bossy and Ovechkin are generational, Selanne never really managed to replicate his rookie season but he was nonetheless an elite player.

I dont think anyone anywhere ever considered Bossy or Selanne generational. Ovie is debatable. In any case, if you need to start deeming non generational players or borderline generational players, generational to make your case that Matthews is generational. It's just an insult to truly generational talents like Gretz, Lemieux, and Crosby.

And still, Matthews is STILL not on those other players' levels because while he scored slightly less than them, he's still way way way behind in POINT PRODUCTION.

 

[Eyedea]

I dont think anyone anywhere ever considered Bossy or Selanne generational. Ovie is debatable. In any case, if you need to start deeming non generational players or borderline generational players, generational to make your case that Matthews is generational. It's just an insult to truly generational talents like Gretz, Lemieux, and Crosby.

And still, Matthews is STILL not on those other players' levels because while he scored slightly less than them, he's still way way way behind in POINT PRODUCTION.

You're right, the one aspect that truly makes McDavid generational and a tier above Matthews is his generational secondary assist production. It's an exceptional skill that he possesses.

 

[BM14]

I dont think anyone anywhere ever considered Bossy or Selanne generational. Ovie is debatable. In any case, if you need to start deeming non generational players or borderline generational players, generational to make your case that Matthews is generational. It's just an insult to truly generational talents like Gretz, Lemieux, and Crosby.

And still, Matthews is STILL not on those other players' levels because while he scored slightly less than them, he's still way way way behind in POINT PRODUCTION.

Do you want my signed Matthews poster?

 

[TheNumber4]

Such a qualifier makes sense when the league has become a significantly lower scoring league.

Matthews is currently second in the league in goals as D+1. The only D+1 teenager on your list was Hawerchuk who was 12th in the league in goals. Bossy was also D+1, but 21 years old and finished 2nd. Lindros was D+2 and didn't make the top 20 in goals. Pederson was tied for 14th, D+2, and wasn't even close to leading his own team in goals. Rick Martin was 21 and 6th in the league, Robitaille was 9th and D+3. Nieuwendyk was D+3 and finished 5th. Selanne tied for first in goals, but was D+5.

Adjusted goals:
Selanne 62
Bossy 47
Martin 43
Nieuwendyk 43
Robitaille 38
Lindros 33
Hawerchuk 33
Pederson 32
Matthews is currently at 46.

Oh okay so he's still behind NON generational players Selanne and Bossy. Both of which put up way higher ERA adjusted POINTS than Matthews. Thank you for proving my point that Matthews is NOT GENERATIONAL.

 

[Muggs]

Do you want my signed Matthews poster?

Worth less then Drysaddle on ebay.

 

[TheNumber4]

Do you want my signed Matthews poster?

Id take a non generational but still great players' signed poster sure.

 

[Eyedea]

Another Canucks fan here,and I don't care for the Oilers or Leafs..but I do enjoy watching skilled players regardless of the sweater...

Matthews is a great player who would be classified as elite...McDavid is another level altogether.,that extra 3% of talent that he has over other players..is what wins championships.

Certainly a talent that wins Art Ross trophies.

 

[Leon Draisaitl]

sigh. They're at best marginally better, but even that's debatable. Names really don't mean much compared to actual on-ice play.

Agreed, names don't mean much. Stats do.

That's why the Oilers are top 10 in most defensive stats and the Leafs are bottom 10.

Even in the simplest stat, GA, the Oilers are significantly ahead (7th to 19th). Jeez, the Leafs are tied with the CANUCKS for goals against and the Canucks have an abysmal defense.

Goalies are even.
Defense edge to Oilers.
Offense slight edge to Leafs but I think the edge will dissipate once Poolparty is ready (yes, I know the Leafs have prospects as well but none are at Poolparty's tier).

 

[TheNumber4]

You're right, the one aspect that truly makes McDavid generational and a tier above Matthews is his generational secondary assist production. It's an exceptional skill that he possesses.

I'm going to reply as a hypothetical Leafs fan where the Leafs, not the Oilers, won the McDavid draft lottery:

While McDavid's secondary assists are high, one needs to remember that his zone entry ability is the best of all time and therefore of course leads to higher secondary assists. Let's also remember that he plays with plugs like Hyman so for a player to be so special that his secondary assists benefit a plug like Hyman it really is something super generational. Probably on a higher level than Lemiuex or Gretzky. BLA BLA BLA BLA BLA......