Brandon Sutter -- Save Us GranBranSen || Part 4

[xtra]

When you are measuring offence there are still actual points and ppg to use.

When you are measuring PK. You are not measuring how many points and ppg you have. On the PK the primary job is to defend and not put up points. So if that the case you need to look at how many goals the pp is scoring when you are on the ice.

Why wouldn’t you just use the absolute amount of goals allowed when your on the penalty kill? Your job is to prevent goals correct? It’s the same as using an absolute measure (total points/goals etc) for points.

The point is you use an absolute stat (total goals/assists) for one arguements then say a percentage per 60 is not valid but flip your arguements to suit you in another thread.

 

[Canucks1096]

Why wouldn’t you just use the absolute amount of goals allowed when your on the penalty kill? Your job is to prevent goals correct? It’s the same as using an absolute measure (total points/goals etc) for points.

The point is you use an absolute stat (total goals/assists) for one arguements then say a percentage per 60 is not valid but flip your arguements to suit you in another thread.

The PK is a smaller sample size. If a player playing 10 seconds on the Pk.. if you just look at the total amount of goals. It's really misleading

When you are looking at an offensive player. You usually look at the raw point total. That's why there Ross AND rocket trophies you look at raw totals.. when people are looking at PK. They don't usually look at the total goals allowed

 

[MadaCanuckle]

Let's make it nice and simple.

Do you think Horvat has been a good penalty killer. Yes or No?

If he was a great penalty killer. There won't be so many articles about Horvat claiming he is bad penalty killer When you Google it.

Honestly my opinion is baze on what I watch, some on numbers, knowing the worst stretch of the PK was with Horvat as and Sutter and Beagle out. All the articles out there that claiming Horvat is a bad Penalty killer.

What measure should I use to state what is good and/or bad? Because if I answer that question, not stating clear parameters like you usually do, I would be making the same mistake. By the way, finally I found out why were you using those stats (and why you didn't understand a single thing on the subject: you read the title and forget to read the actual article, an article from... November of 2017!) Funny stuff, an article from Canucks Army (see, I read it beyond the title) concludes the following:

«Where Horvat did take a step forward defensively was with his play shorthanded. As I outlined in an analysis piece at the start of this season, the Canucks hemorrhaged unblocked shot attempts, goals, and high danger scoring chances at a disproportionately high rate with Horvat deployed in 2016/17. Simply put, he was one of the worst penalty killers in the league that year. Horvat has improved significantly on those paltry results, moving the needle firmly towards respectability.»

See? Need a drawing? Like, Horvat is developing? Holy shit, players evolve and become better players! What a surprise.

I have already proved that the worst stretch of our PK had other reasons, and I backed it up with numbers. Why do keep insisting on the same mistake, over and over again?

A word of advice: do a search on how to read an article and don't make a fool of yourself.

 

[Peter10]

Why such as fierce defense for Sutter all of a sudden @Canucks1096 ? First in the Mgmt topic now here (were it actually belongs). One could think you are his grandma

 

[Askel]

Overall stats since the Sutter for Bonino trade:
Bonino
264 GP 52 G 65 A 0.44 pts/g+35 16:09/game
Sutter
182 GP 37 G 37 A -21 0.41 pts/g 18:06/game

I take the cheaper, healthier and in the end more effective Bonino any. day over Sutter.

 

[Canucks1096]

What measure should I use to state what is good and/or bad? Because if I answer that question, not stating clear parameters like you usually do, I would be making the same mistake. By the way, finally I found out why were you using those stats (and why you didn't understand a single thing on the subject: you read the title and forget to read the actual article, an article from... November of 2017!) Funny stuff, an article from Canucks Army (see, I read it beyond the title) concludes the following:

«Where Horvat did take a step forward defensively was with his play shorthanded. As I outlined in an analysis piece at the start of this season, the Canucks hemorrhaged unblocked shot attempts, goals, and high danger scoring chances at a disproportionately high rate with Horvat deployed in 2016/17. Simply put, he was one of the worst penalty killers in the league that year. Horvat has improved significantly on those paltry results, moving the needle firmly towards respectability.»

See? Need a drawing? Like, Horvat is developing? Holy ****, players evolve and become better players! What a surprise.

I have already proved that the worst stretch of our PK had other reasons, and I backed it up with numbers. Why do keep insisting on the same mistake, over and over again?

A word of advice: do a search on how to read an article and don't make a fool of yourself.

Vancouver Canucks: The good, the bad and the penalty kill

If possible can you stop generatizing. Also I am still waiting for examples from a few months ago about naming teams that got 3 first line Players from single draft. Since you indicated it should of been really easy in 2014 to get Ehlers Pastrnak and Point

I think you are acting like T word. I think I will stop after this post

Geez. It's hockey forum. Seem like you are holding a grudge from months ago. Pretty sad you hold a grudge on someone that you don't know on a hockey forum

 

[Canucks1096]

Why such as fierce defense for Sutter all of a sudden @Canucks1096 ? First in the Mgmt topic now here (were it actually belongs). One could think you are his grandma

Sutter gets so much crap from everyone. He just doesn't deserve all that. I find people are just exaggerating too much.

 

[MadaCanuckle]

Vancouver Canucks: The good, the bad and the penalty kill

If possible can you stop generatizing. Also I am still waiting for examples from a few months ago about naming teams that got 3 first line Players from single draft. Since you indicated it should of been really easy in 2014 to get Ehlers Pastrnak and Point

I think you are acting like T word. I think I will stop after this post

Geez. It's hockey forum. Seem like you are holding a grudge from months ago. Pretty sad you hold a grudge on someone that you don't know on a hockey forum

That article was refuted by the same Burke in a later article on The Athletic. Google it.

I gave you examples there. I gave you a reason here, backed up with real stats. Both times, you refused to acknowledge them because it didn't fit your agenda, and then proceeded to move the needle to another point that I wasn't even making.

Yes, this is a hockey forum so we discuss hockey here, preferably based in facts, not in some skewed stats or to try to defend someone who is overpaid and we gave up too much.

About those draft picks, it was easy to get them right. The forum was calling their names way before the Canucks picked.

As the "grudge", stop looking at the mirror. I didn't even recall that argument was with you. Probably because I don't care that much who I am arguing with. However, to remember that and using it to try some stupid assessment about me, that says a lot about your character .

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Overall stats since the Sutter for Bonino trade:
Bonino
264 GP 52 G 65 A 0.44 pts/g+35 16:09/game
Sutter
182 GP 37 G 37 A -21 0.41 pts/g 18:06/game

I take the cheaper, healthier and in the end more effective Bonino any. day over Sutter.

I'd take his dad, at his current age, over Sutter right now.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Overall stats since the Sutter for Bonino trade:
Bonino
264 GP 52 G 65 A 0.44 pts/g+35 16:09/game
Sutter
182 GP 37 G 37 A -21 0.41 pts/g 18:06/game

I take the cheaper, healthier and in the end more effective Bonino any. day over Sutter.

Clearly - Bonino is a better shut down forward, PK’er, Face off man, and situational player than Sutter.

 

[Canucks1096]

Clearly - Bonino is a better shut down forward, PK’er, Face off man, and situational player than Sutter.

Not faceoff.. Sutter 49.6 in his career. Bonino 49.

So a player that has more PP time, plays with better player on a much much much better team and get less D zone starts and only manage 0.03 Points.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

Not faceoff.. Sutter 49.6 in his career. Bonino 49.

So a player that has more PP time, plays with better player on a much much much better team and get less D zone starts and only manage 0.03 Points.

No no no no.

Sutter has been as fragile as glass. He's not even a decent third liner. Sutter’s 26 points in 61 games sound respectable, but its a pretty poor scoring rate when considering that he was within a minute of Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser for average even-strength ice-time.

He’s been producing points at a 4th line rate for the past three seasons.

 

[HankNDank]

How a Sutter vs Bonino debate even started in a Hughes thread, I don't know, but please stop.

 

[M2Beezy]

How a Sutter vs Bonino debate even started in a Hughes thread, I don't know, but please stop.

Well it was a bad trade for us esp as we DOWNGRATED in picks too

 

[CherryToke]

Well it was a bad trade for us esp as we DOWNGRATED in picks too

Tell it to a thread that cares.

 

[Canucks1096]

No no no no.

Sutter has been as fragile as glass. He's not even a decent third liner. Sutter’s 26 points in 61 games sound respectable, but its a pretty poor scoring rate when considering that he was within a minute of Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser for average even-strength ice-time.

He’s been producing points at a 4th line rate for the past three seasons.

What do mean No No No? I posted mainly facts. So Sutter doesnt have better faceoffs? So Bonino doesn't have better linemates.

There are no context in your chart. Just numbers. P/60 don't taKe zone starts and linemates into consideration.

Just analyze this for one moment. Your regular linemates are Motte Dorsett Archibald Grandlund and start 80% in the D zone and hardly any pp put a 33 point pace. I highly double Bonino can do that with the same playing field. That SEASON Sutter outscored Bonino while playing 10 less games as well.

When analyze a player shouldn't we take everything into consideration and take some context out of the number before presenting your claim?

Every team and every coach Sutter played on gave him big mins. Botchford reported that a lot if teams called JB about Sutter. When you have a moment ask yourself if Sutter is a 4th line player. Why does so many GM want him and so many ccoaches play him a Lot? Can it be there just not looking at analytics stats. If it is just base on analytics stats. Hutton last year and Goldobin this year wouldn't be regular scratches.

Also he only missed 3 games in 5 seasons before Joining Vancouver. Not sure why there are lot of players don't miss a lot of games in their carwwr but start missing a lot of games once they join Vancouver. Ex Hamhuis and Ballard but that's another topic.

If you want to reply. Move it it the Sutter thread. Thanks. No more Sutter talk in this thread

 

[xtra]

The PK is a smaller sample size. If a player playing 10 seconds on the Pk.. if you just look at the total amount of goals. It's really misleading

So for an offensive stat why isn’t comparing p/60min the same?

If a player A plays 2 mins more per game over an 82 game season than player b that’s an additional 164mins, hence they would have an much better absolute total offensive production.

The issue is do you want to compare them using an equivalent sample or not.

There’s slot of noise in using just games played as opposed to points per 60 or even better if you want to compare offensive production: points per 60 at even strength.

 

[Canucks1096]

So for an offensive stat why isn’t comparing p/60min the same?

If a player A plays 2 mins more per game over an 82 game season than player b that’s an additional 164mins, hence they would have an much better absolute total offensive production.

The issue is do you want to compare them using an equivalent sample or not.

There’s slot of noise in using just games played as opposed to points per 60 or even better if you want to compare offensive production: points per 60 at even strength.

If you think p/60 is a good measure. That means we are making an assumption if player A plays x amount of mins more. There production will go up but that I don't think that is true. What if you play a physical game or a high tempo game. You might get burned out with those extra mins. Every players plays a different game and conditioning is not the same. That's why looking at raw point total is better. Some players can't even handle those extra minutes.

Malkin has a better p/60 than Crosby the last 4 years.. Don't think anyone thinks Malkin is a better player than Crosby.

Mcdavid was 6th in p/60 last year. Do you think Mcdavid is 6th best player in the league. That's why the p/60 is flawed.

About the Penalty killing. A player is only about 20 seconds to a few minutes on the PK. Therefore player playing 20 seconds should be the best Penalty killer of you are just looking GAA which doesn't make sense. I look at GA60 because there is are less stats to look at it to measure a P killer

It's just the way we measure stats differently. On a hockey site like nhl.com They will list G A P At even strength but it doesn't show many goals you let in at even strength next to it. Why because we measure defense differently

 

[Jay Cee]

I'm a little surprised with this thread lately. I thought that we sort of established the last couple of years that Sutter actually is a good hockey player, albeit more of a throwback type of defensive specialist. All it takes is a major injury and some poor play for the lynch mob to come back.

 

[Canucks1096]

Sutter's "shutdown ability" is a very curious thing. When you look at typical underlying numbers (shooting events related), he looks fairly ordinary (maybe even poor). He's certainly not suppressing shots. But when you look at the goals data, some strange things come to light.

If you were to define "shutdown ability" as the ability to consistently prevent goals against, Sutter actually fits the definition quite well. And when you start looking at very large samples (where goals data becomes a much better indicator), Sutter's "shutdown" quality becomes quite intriguing.

Consider his career on-ice goals against numbers viewed against the rest of the NHL since the start of the "Behind the Net era" in 2007 (when fancy stats first became publicly available). To remove some of the noise from the goals data, let's examine Sutter against other NHL players with 4000+ minutes of 5v5 since 2007-08 (the results here are going to appear a bit cherry-picked but I honestly chose this grouping in an attempt to produce meaningful sample sizes): http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=SvPct&sortdir=DESC

Sutter looks pretty impressive here.

His 1.79 5v5 GA60 is 7th. So since 2007-08, only six NHL players with 4000+ minutes of 5v5 have allowed fewer goals against per sixty minutes of 5v5.

Sutter's -0.53 GA60 RelTM is 1st. So since 2007-08, no player (with 4000+ minutes 5v5) in the NHL has produced a lower goals against per sixty rate (5v5), relative to his teammates, than Brandon Sutter.

What's the deal here?

He doesn't suppress shots. His events metrics are kinda crappy (Corsi, Fenwick, etc) but Sutter sure seems to "suppress" goals against.

Is this a "shutdown" player?

Maybe not a typical one. But the results are sure interesting.

Also interesting is what Sutter's goaltenders have managed to achieve over his career. Among that same group of 4000+ minutes 5v5 players since 2007-08, Sutter ranks 2nd in on-ice Sv% (93.96). Ah, so "percentage driven" right? He's just been lucky. But can a player really be that lucky over 6215:45 5v5TOI? Six thousand odd minutes played in front of 12 different goaltenders on three different teams and over 8 NHL seasons. Was it really the goalies? Or does Sutter do something that helps goalies make more saves? And if he does make his goalies "better" then do his shots based underlying numbers matter as much?

Especially when the goals based numbers are so strong (in terms of goals against--we're talking "shutdown" ability here--his goals for numbers aren't great and his diffentials are fairly average).

But Sutter prevents goals against when he's on the ice (both relative to his teammates and relative to players around the league). Those numbers just don't lie. And stopping the other team from scoring (or at least significantly limiting their ability to do so) seems like what a "shutdown" player is supposed to do.

I would agree that Sutter's overall statistical profile is something of an enigma. And I'm really not sure how to explain it.

From watching him play, a couple things do stand out. He seems to be excellent on the backcheck with high end pursuit ability in tracking down and disrupting puck carriers in the neutral zone or forcing them into hurrying shots if they gain the offensive zone. This might explain part of his "shutdown" ability. He's not physical or grinding but he is fairly disruptive and seems to have a good stick defensively. He's also very successful in drawing penalties while not taking many (which sometimes can suggest a larger net positive on-ice effect that other indicators might be missing)--Sutter has had a positive penalties drawn-taken/60 every season he's played and has been +0.5/60 or better in all but one season of his career.

Those are all good things.

But if I'm being honest, I don't know why Sutter prevents goals against. His shots metrics say it shouldn't happen. And the sheer size of the career sample suggests it's not just a statistical quirk. Something is happening in those six thousand odd minutes where Brandon Sutter has kept more pucks out of his team's own nets than nearly any other player of similar minutes played during the same
period of time.

So maybe not a typical shutdown forward. But maybe a highly effective one nonetheless?

This post was a few years ago. For those of you who are just using some basic analytics to prove Sutter is not a good shut down player. Please read this.

I will be honest I am not usually a fan of using these numbers as an argument. But to say Sutter is not a good shut down by just looking at what you want to look at is not a good accurate way to measure what kind of player he is.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Sutter gets so much crap from everyone. He just doesn't deserve all that. I find people are just exaggerating too much.

Yeah, he gets a lot of crap from everyone because he's not worth anything close to his contract, nor is he very good. His offense is atrocious given the opportunities he's received, and he gets dominated every time he's on the ice.

 

[Cupless44]

Move Sutter for what you can this year and put Gaudette as the 3rd line centre. They can not miss a beat as the bubble team they are that will just miss the playoffs with or without Sutter.

 

[PG Canuck]

Move Sutter for what you can this year and put Gaudette as the 3rd line centre. They can not miss a beat as the bubble team they are that will just miss the playoffs with or without Sutter.

I'm perfectly fine with this scenario.

 

[xtra]

If you think p/60 is a good measure. That means we are making an assumption if player A plays x amount of mins more. There production will go up but that I don't think that is true. What if you play a physical game or a high tempo game. You might get burned out with those extra mins. Every players plays a different game and conditioning is not the same. That's why looking at raw point total is better. Some players can't even handle those extra minutes.

Malkin has a better p/60 than Crosby the last 4 years.. Don't think anyone thinks Malkin is a better player than Crosby.

Mcdavid was 6th in p/60 last year. Do you think Mcdavid is 6th best player in the league. That's why the p/60 is flawed.

About the Penalty killing. A player is only about 20 seconds to a few minutes on the PK. Therefore player playing 20 seconds should be the best Penalty killer of you are just looking GAA which doesn't make sense. I look at GA60 because there is are less stats to look at it to measure a P killer

we are making an assumption if player A kills x amount of penalty mins more. There penalty killing production will stay the same but that I don't think that is true. What if you kill penalities with a physical game or a high tempo game. You might get burned out with those extra mins. Every players kills penalties a different way and conditioning is not the same. That's why looking at raw penalty killing total is better. Some players can't even handle those extra minutes.
We are gonna have to agree to disagree because while p/60 is not the best stat to say it’s an effective measure for one stat but a great one for another is weird.

 

[Canucks1096]

we are making an assumption if player A kills x amount of penalty mins more. There penalty killing production will stay the same but that I don't think that is true. What if you kill penalities with a physical game or a high tempo game. You might get burned out with those extra mins. Every players kills penalties a different way and conditioning is not the same. That's why looking at raw penalty killing total is better. Some players can't even handle those extra minutes.
We are gonna have to agree to disagree because while p/60 is not the best stat to say it’s an effective measure for one stat but a great one for another is weird.

Let me ask you this is you are looking at raw numbers on the Penalty killing to determine who is best penalty killer. That means we need to be consistent at even strength as well. How Come there is no stat on a player total goal against when he is on the ice. There Corsi/plus minus. But when you go to most hockey sites they won't have the total GAA listed. When any writer is talking about who is good at defensively. You never hear people talk about the entire goals they are on the ice for at even strength. Different situation we measure differently.

Most teams have the 1st unit score a large percentage of the goals on the pp. That means if you look at total goals. The 1st PK unit will have the most goals allowed and where 2nd unit hardly has any. If you look at total goals player playing 2nd PK unit are automatically better PKiller? It's not a fair assessment if you look at the total goals on the PK.

I will be honest no stat is Perfect on the PK. Both ways has there flaws. Sure let's agree to disagree