Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk: Episode 6 - Return of the F.A.

[BatherSeason]

Not remotely comparable.

You are right, but the wording is interesting regardless.

 

[aragorn]

I wouldn't pay a penny to watch Jack Hughes play, but I'd pay top dollar to watch either of the Tkachuks play because they are so damn more entertaining to watch IMO.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Given Tkachuk's family ties, along with his brother's contract, I would be shocked if he signs something with terms that are as soft as what Chabot signed for.

Chabot didn't do Tkachuk any favors. Chabot's AAV percentage was below all historical comparable defenders who became stars on their ELC (Doughty, Karlsson, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, to name a few), he did not get signing bonuses, did not get front loaded money, and got very soft trade protection.

The one thing that will help Ottawa, is that backloading contracts is now preferable for players because of the current issues with escrow. It makes more sense to take less money upfront, because a player is less likely to earn their entire salary over the next 3 or so season than they will be 5+ seasons from now when COVID-19 may not be preventing the NHL from earning revenue.

I would be fine with giving Tkachuk the Chabot contract. It would not be a steal, but I think he's going to be a guy who because he plays a certain style would require a huge premium to keep as a UFA. So it won't be that far off. I'm not sure Tkachuk signs that contract though.

With that said, the COVID-19 situation might actually help in terms of the Senators locking down Tkachuk. There's less point in taking a bridge deal if the cap is going to remain flat for a few years. One big reason why players take bridge deals is to not lock themselves into a contract under a lower cap ceiling. If the cap ceiling is not going up, there is less incentive to not be locked in under 81.5M.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

You are right, but the wording is interesting regardless.

No it’s not interesting, it’s pretty simple and standard. Of course the team would try to sign him this offseason, the player doesn’t have to until next year though. It’s the same thing as Chabot.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Given Tkachuk's family ties, along with his brother's contract, I would be shocked if he signs something with terms that are as soft as what Chabot signed for.

Chabot didn't do Tkachuk any favors. Chabot's AAV percentage was below all historical comparable defenders who became stars on their ELC (Doughty, Karlsson, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, to name a few), he did not get signing bonuses, did not get front loaded money, and got very soft trade protection.

The one thing that will help Ottawa, is that backloading contracts is now preferable for players because of the current issues with escrow. It makes more sense to take less money upfront, because a player is less likely to earn their entire salary over the next 3 or so season than they will be 5+ seasons from now when COVID-19 may not be preventing the NHL from earning revenue.

I would be fine with giving Tkachuk the Chabot contract. It would not be a steal, but I think he's going to be a guy who because he plays a certain style would require a huge premium to keep as a UFA. So it won't be that far off. I'm not sure Tkachuk signs that contract though.

With that said, the COVID-19 situation might actually help in terms of the Senators locking down Tkachuk. There's less point in taking a bridge deal if the cap is going to remain flat for a few years. One big reason why players take bridge deals is to not lock themselves into a contract under a lower cap ceiling. If the cap ceiling is not going up, there is less incentive to not be locked in under 81.5M.

No reason he would get Chabots salary IMO

 

[Micklebot]

No reason he would get Chabots salary IMO

I mean, Chabot signed his extension after putting up 10 more pts as a Dman than Tkachuk just did, and that was in the context of a cap that was expected to rise, and a team in desperate need of good news, so I tend to agree. Tkachuk simply won't have the leverage this offseason that Chabot did.

That said, Tkachuk will probably drive a harder bargain, and could opt to hold off another year before signing, which give him the potential to elevate his leverage.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

No reason he would get Chabots salary IMO

-He will get more than 8M per when he hits UFA 5 seasons from now.
-He is not a "mark". He comes from a hockey family and has people advising him who understand that it is a business first, and understand how to maximize their value.
-Chabot took a discount in terms/AAV. So it's not a directly fair comparison.

Those are why it will take Chabot money to get him to sign.

There is a premium on forwards who play Tkachuk's style. Look at the contract Kreider just got when most of his prime is already over. He is almost 30. Tkachuk will be about 25 when he hits unrestricted free agency. While the cap will remain flat for a few years, there's still a US TV deal on the horizon, and there is the slight possibility of society figuring something out with COVID-19 that will allow the NHL to begin rebuilding it's revenue stream, which means the cap could go up.

If Kreider got 6.5M (about 8 percent of the cap ceiling) for a contract that takes him through his early/mid 30's, what will a 25 year old Tkachuk, who will most likely be a better player be in a position to ask for under what might be a higher cap?

As I've said, 8 won't be a steal or anything....but it will be perfectly fine if it is an 8 year term.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I mean, Chabot signed his extension after putting up 10 more pts as a Dman than Tkachuk just did, and that was in the context of a cap that was expected to rise, and a team in desperate need of good news, so I tend to agree. Tkachuk simply won't have the leverage this offseason that Chabot did.

That said, Tkachuk will probably drive a harder bargain, and could opt to hold off another year before signing, which give him the potential to elevate his leverage.

People need to keep in mind that Chabot did the Senators a huge solid. He took less than pretty much every other modern comparable while still giving up 8 years total. I'd have to look deeper to see how many UFA years were given up in each contract.

Chabot probably should have gotten 8.50-8.75. He signed a very team friendly contract.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

-He will get more than 8M per when he hits UFA 5 seasons from now.
-He is not a "mark". He comes from a hockey family and has people advising him who understand that it is a business first, and understand how to maximize their value.
-Chabot took a discount in terms/AAV. So it's not a directly fair comparison.

Those are why it will take Chabot money to get him to sign.

There is a premium on forwards who play Tkachuk's style. Look at the contract Kreider just got when most of his prime is already over. He is almost 30. Tkachuk will be about 25 when he hits unrestricted free agency. While the cap will remain flat for a few years, there's still a US TV deal on the horizon, and there is the slight possibility of society figuring something out with COVID-19 that will allow the NHL to begin rebuilding it's revenue stream, which means the cap could go up.

If Kreider got 6.5M (about 8 percent of the cap ceiling) for a contract that takes him through his early/mid 30's, what will a 25 year old Tkachuk, who will most likely be a better player be in a position to ask for under what might be a higher cap?

As I've said, 8 won't be a steal or anything....but it will be perfectly fine if it is an 8 year term.

I would bet today that he doesn’t get 8 million if they sing him for 8 years. He would get closer to 7 in my opinion. He won’t have the production to justify it.

 

[JungleBeat]

If Brady has another 40 point season he’ll most likely sign a bridge deal and bet on himself.

 

[GCK]

I would bet today that he doesn’t get 8 million if they sing him for 8 years. He would get closer to 7 in my opinion. He won’t have the production to justify it.

No chance he goes 8 years at 7M, Backloaded 8 year 64M gets it done IMO. Tkachuk has so much more value than just his points which are still very good.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I wouldn't pay a penny to watch Jack Hughes play, but I'd pay top dollar to watch either of the Tkachuks play because they are so damn more entertaining to watch IMO.

God bless you, young man.

 

[JD1]

i don't think there is any chance Tkachuk signs any contract after his 2nd season. He doesn't need to and it's not in his interest to do so...and I was saying that before this pandemic, the pandemic only further strengthens the idea that it's not in his interest to do so.

and hopefully this board doesn't go ballistic because PD hasn't signed him before the start of his 3rd season.