Pre-Game Talk: Bounce. Back. Oilers Leafs Monday.

[Burnt Biscuits]

PP60 is by far and away the dumbest stat in advanced stat pretend spreadsheet hockey. Even dumber than controlled zone entries.

I disagree I think it's quite informative, even strength production is obviously quite important and it's nice to know who produce well in the minutes allocated to them. Like all stats you must be fully aware of the context such as the size of the sample, the offensive push the individual is getting zone start + quality of competition & quality of linemates. This kind of stats mean close to nothing this early into a season, too much room for statistical abnormalities/static, when put into the context of a full season I do value that stat quite a bit, especially with correlative trends over multiple years.

For example I was in the minority in doubting Neal, with most just looking at his 19 goals in 55 games, but I looked at his multi-year regression in even strength production and an unsustainably high shooting percentage holding him above water last year, now fast forward to this season and he's been healthy scratched rather frequently for a guy most had as a regular in our top 9.

What you want most out of any stat is that it be predictive, allow you to make reasonable guesses that pay off more often than they don't and as a stat even strength production per 60 is fairly reliable, particularly when the proper context is applied.

 

[LTIR]

No way the Flames are as good as the Oilers. On what basis? Have you seen dead Mohahan anytime lately? lol at a club that has Milan Lucic as one of their better players.

The leafs completely looked off the Flames and were clearly looking at the matchup with the Oilers. The Flames are a non entity. No way that the Leafs played the Flames well. The 3 game tilt between the Oil and Leafs was clearly in the minds of both clubs. its a matchup that occur during playoffs. Nobody is worried about the Flames.

On basis that anything can happen in thus league. Pretty sure Flames have lost to and won against every team in North and could very easily put a string of wins together.
By March 17 we could either be 10 pts clear of Flames or be behind them in standings.

With head to head games no lead is safe and no one is really out.

Dead Monahan/Johnny/Rat is the issue. If they wake up they wouldnt be underperforming.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I disagree I think it's quite informative, even strength production is obviously quite important and it's nice to know who produce well in the minutes allocated to them. Like all stats you must be fully aware of the context such as the size of the sample, the offensive push the individual is getting zone start + quality of competition & quality of linemates. This kind of stats mean close to nothing this early into a season, too much room for statistical abnormalities/static, when put into the context of a full season I do value that stat quite a bit, especially with correlative trends over multiple years.

For example I was in the minority in doubting Neal, with most just looking at his 19 goals in 55 games, but I looked at his multi-year regression in even strength production and an unsustainably high shooting percentage holding him above water last year, now fast forward to this season and he's been healthy scratched rather frequently for a guy most had as a regular in our top 9.

What you want most out of any stat is that it be predictive, allow you to make reasonable guesses that pay off more often than they don't and as a stat even strength production per 60 is fairly reliable, particularly when the proper context is applied.

I understand all that, I suppose I shouldn't have brought my opinion up on it again as I don't want to revisit the discussion, but I find it worthless. Especially when Khaira and Spezza are being trotted out as PP60 Gods.

Anyway to each their own.

 

[McDNicks17]

Well , its the winning strategy for opponents. Cover the stars and let 'not as skilled' carry the puck and take the shots.

I feel like it's more than that. Those lesser skilled guys aren't even getting shots. The four top6 wingers are averaging 1.5 shots per game each at even strength since Bouchard has been called up.

I don't know if it's coaching or just a lack of willingness to get physically involved, but both lines seem to refuse to try to cycle and create offense on their own.

 

[Snipes45]

In other news, I seen that the OEG has put together a 50 page proposal to AHS to allow a limited number of fans into the building starting April 1st if the provinces stages keep going as planned. First game would be for front line workers and there would be a featured front line worker before each games puck drop.

 

[Mr Positive]

If Turris is ready, I wouldn't mind them trying him. The former Sen might have an extra gear to beat that team, and after the stinker we just had it might be great to have someone fresh and hungry in the lineup. We also have to try him again some time.

Or Nygard

 

[Cloned]

Thanks! It was a lot of fun to do and I learned how to do a few new things on the old Mac so good deal all around!

Pressure's on the next one up. We need another 3-4 game heater!!!!

@ConnorMcMullet is unbeaten so far...

 

[CravenMH]

I'm confident we'll take 1 of the next 2 vs the Leafs. As for the playoff shakedown, I'm seeing us finishing 3rd behind Jets and having to play them in the first round. It'll be a good series. Unfortunately you can't count out the Lames yet either, I'm thinking they will go on a heater and make things interesting down the stretch.

Stick a fork in the Habs, Nucks and Sens tho. Sens playing much more inspired now but they're way too far out at this point imo.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

@ConnorMcMullet is unbeaten so far...

He quit after 2.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I'm confident we'll take 1 of the next 2 vs the Leafs. As for the playoff shakedown, I'm seeing us finishing 3rd behind Jets and having to play them in the first round. It'll be a good series. Unfortunately you can't count out the Lames yet either, I'm thinking they will go on a heater and make things interesting down the stretch.

Stick a fork in the Habs, Nucks and Sens tho. Sens playing much more inspired now but they're way too far out at this point imo.

I think we take the next one and get at least a point out of the last one, maybe 2. We will see a much more determined club and McDavid usually goes full nuclear after he’s had a bad game.

Not sure what’s up with Draisaitl, sounds like the injury isn’t a big thing to him when he spoke, I think he will be in beast mode as well. He needs to stop looking for Kahun to set up and Yamo needs to start wiring the puck. He’s deferring to Draisaitl.

The D will tighten up, I think we see Lagesson and Bouchard in while Jones and Russell sit and Kostco is usually pretty good after a long rest.

A depth goal, a goal from the D, a PP goal and 1 from each of the top 2 lines for 5 total. That should do it - I hope lol.

 

[t0nedeff]

Watch Tippett dress the same line up. Win 5 games and the line up needs to be tweaked but not after losses.

 

[gordonhught]

Here, have some bounce

Best part is the bridge when the bass player sings

 

[DropTheGloves]

Dead Monahan/Johnny/Rat is the issue. If they wake up they wouldnt be underperforming.

I think we're all sleeping on Van as well. They are a good coach away IMO from being a much better team. That won't make up for losing their #1D and G in one off-season, but their forward group is deep and can out-gun the other teams in this division when on which is all they need to do.

 

[LTIR]

I think we're all sleeping on Van as well. They are a good coach away IMO from being a much better team. That won't make up for losing their #1D and G in one off-season, but their forward group is deep and can out-gun the other teams in this division when on which is all they need to do.

Goaltending masked a lot for them last season. I think OTT catches em real soon. Pettersson is legit but there really isnt much after that.

 

[MessierII]

But they weren't. Bear had weak competition and had abysmal stats last night.

Nurse went -3. Pretty abysmal.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

I'm just glad there is no game tonight.

The Curse of Oak Island is on @ 8 & I'm pretty confident they solve the mystery tonight. They're due.

 

[gordonhught]

I'm just glad there is no game tonight.

The Curse of Oak Island is on @ 8 & I'm pretty confident they solve the mystery tonight. They're due.

The hell with that - those guys are going to keep looking for that gold for a long time

 

[gordonhught]

The hell with that - those guys are going to keep looking for that gold for a long time

I watched and watched that show for seasons and seasons

didn’t that one Laguna get Lyme disease?

 

[Mr Positive]

Nurse went -3. Pretty abysmal.

and when it is your absolute best players dragging the team down like that, that tells me that it was just a disjointed game. If they were amazing but the Leafs feasted on the bottom six it would be a different story.

In general, last game the team was just off. I didn't see the checking from the Leafs as especially incredible that it disrupted all those passes and flubbed chances. They were very good though.

 

[gordonhught]

So boring

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I think we're all sleeping on Van as well. They are a good coach away IMO from being a much better team. That won't make up for losing their #1D and G in one off-season, but their forward group is deep and can out-gun the other teams in this division when on which is all they need to do.

They are a Chris tanev away from Hughes knowing where his zone is

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The hell with that - those guys are going to keep looking for that gold for a long time

As long as people keep watching them look for something that isn’t there, they’ll keep trying to find it

 

[McTonyBrar]

Nurse went -3. Pretty abysmal.

McDavid had -3. Abysmal

 

[McTonyBrar]

and when it is your absolute best players dragging the team down like that, that tells me that it was just a disjointed game. If they were amazing but the Leafs feasted on the bottom six it would be a different story.

In general, last game the team was just off. I didn't see the checking from the Leafs as especially incredible that it disrupted all those passes and flubbed chances. They were very good though.

It was off for everyone in the top part of our lineup including the defence

 

[MessierII]

McDavid had -3. Abysmal

Yeah the big guns were our worst players last game.