Bob McKenzie on last night's broadcast: "Are [the Leafs] going to win the Cup? No."

[Mess]

He didn't imply it, he said it. If he didn't mean it that I'm thinking why say it at all?

The Oilers finished 3rd from the bottom last year and our Leafs finished 8th last both out of the playoffs.

Why are the Leafs being suddenly compared as equals to LA and Chicago (proven) Cup winners of the past few seasons, when their results of missing the playoffs 8 of last 9 years matches the performance of the Oilers in terms of winning the Stanley Cup?.

Why are fans surprised that Bob McKenzie a professionally employed Hockey analyst doesn't think the Leafs are going to win the Cup this year?

 

[Finnish your Czech]

He misspoke. He meant "probably not".

Big deal.

 

[Mess]

My goodness, Mess is not seriously implying the Leafs are as likely to win as the Hawks or Kings.

Man, this world has become so black and white that you'd think we were all allergic to grey.

Bob McKenzie by saying "NO" to Leafs winning the Cup this year is not comparing Toronto to LA and Chicago.

Fans that are upset with his answer are the ones that are putting the Leafs in the same group in the "Yes" category with LA and Chicago and others of potential Cup winners.

Are the Leafs going to win the Cup this year is a Yes or No (black and white) possible outcome, as its either they are or they're not. Only 2 actual final options exist. Whereas some fans that are upset with McKenzie want to check the MAYBE box as (grey) & undecided and uncommitted at present.

Isn't that what is happening in this thread?.

If this thread was a poll asking are the Leafs going to win the Cup this year with options of either Yes or No, which one would you check?

 

[Gallagbi]

Where are the fans saying this team is as likely to win the cup as LA and Chicago?

Your "black and white" scenario suggests LA and Chicago can't be on the same level, since only 1 can win a cup this year. It's black and white, at the very least 1 of those 2 teams (and possibly both) will end up a "No" to the question of did they win the 2015 Stanley cup.

With the said, I don't mind his prediction the Leafs are long shots to win the cup and everyone knows that.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

........ If you thought all of those were huge longshots, it's pretty likely you didn't see them play. It's not that you can always pick the winner. Picking the couple of teams with a shot though? Ya, that's really, really easy.

Also, two teams don't win. One does. Making the final and losing doesn't get you a cup. Like I said, the winners haven't been longshots for years.

Lol, "couple teams with a shot". Using your logic and criteria, it's more like 20+. Great way to cover your butt.

The winners haven't been "longshots" for a grand total of 2 years.

And yeah, only garbage teams make the Stanley Cup Final.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

That LA team is way better than this Toronto team. Toronto may not even make the playoffs because they can't defend. If this team comes anywhere near the cup this season it will be one of the most shocking things this league has seen ever. This team has to change the way they play in a big way if they want to even get close.

2012:

"That [INSERT OVERRATED TEAM HERE] team is way better than this LA team. LA may not even make the playoffs because they can't score. If this team comes anywhere near the cup this season it will be one of the most shocking things this league has seen ever. This team has to change the way they play in a big way if they want to even get close."

 

[Bill Waters*]

He's delusional. Of course we are in with a shot. 1/30 to be precise. Its Matts!

 

[LeafsLegendAkiBerg]

It's technically true that the Leafs could win the cup, but Bobby Mac is probably safe to say we aren't. It's also technically possible that Colton Orr is going to be called up and win the Art Ross, but I'm not gonna complain when someone uses rhetoric to imply that it is a very, very unrealistic idea even though it's theoretically possible. I think maybe you're taking a comment off-the-cuff on live television a bit too seriously.

 

[Mess]

Where are the fans saying this team is as likely to win the cup as LA and Chicago?

Your "black and white" scenario suggests LA and Chicago can't be on the same level, since only 1 can win a cup this year. It's black and white, at the very least 1 of those 2 teams (and possibly both) will end up a "No" to the question of did they win the 2015 Stanley cup.

With the said, I don't mind his prediction the Leafs are long shots to win the cup and everyone knows that.

Actually that is exactly the point I was making about factoring in the actual % of winning and not winning the Stanley Cup, black or white scenario.

There are 30 NHL teams and only 1 wins the Cup each year and 29 don't. So the odds are equal for all. 1/30 = 3.33 % winnings and 29/30 = 96.67% of losing right across the board.

So you are 100% correct in suggesting that both LA and Chicago might feel they're on the same level of winning but I can state with 100% accuracy that one of them will be in the "NO" and 96.67 losing %. There is also only a 3.33% that the other one also doesn't end up in the same boat. In fact odds are 6.66% (2/30) of either Chicago or LA winning and 93.33% (28/30) that both don't.

Bob McKenzie here wasn't really put on the spot with having to pick an LA or Chicago to win the Cup Yes or No alternative and put in a tough spot (having to pick between multiple Cup winners in past 5 years), but rather the Leafs instead.

Only the most loyal\optimistic Leaf fan would believe Leafs should be considered equals to LA and Chicago (and others). Admittedly it would be a serious upset\longshot for Leafs to win it all. So McKenzie (who is a smart guy) put the Leafs into the 96.67% bucket of "NO" and has only a 3.33% chance of being wrong. Even then he knows it would take a Cinderella upset for him to be wrong by Leafs winning and in fact is backing 29 other teams (without having to commit to any specific one) that a team other than Toronto wins by playing the extremely lopsided odds in his favour.

This prediction doesn't even need to go in-depth and analyze advanced Leaf stats or look at them being a non playoff team last year to Cup winner the next etc etc.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Actually that is exactly the point I was making about factoring in the actual % of winning and not winning the Stanley Cup, black or white scenario.

There are 30 NHL teams and only 1 wins the Cup each year and 29 don't. So the odds are equal for all. 1/30 = 3.33 % winnings and 29/30 = 96.67% of losing right across the board.

So you are 100% correct in suggesting that both LA and Chicago might feel they're on the same level of winning but I can state with 100% accuracy that one of them will be in the "NO" and 96.67 losing %. There is also only a 3.33% that the other one also doesn't end up in the same boat.

Bob McKenzie here wasn't really put on the spot with having to pick an LA or Chicago to win the Cup Yes or No alternative and put in a tough spot (having to pick between multiple Cup winners in past 5 years), but rather the Leafs instead.

Only the most loyal\optimistic Leaf fan would believe Leafs should be considered equals to LA and Chicago (and others). Admittedly it would be a serious upset\longshot for Leafs to win it all. So McKenzie (who is a smart guy) put the Leafs into the 96.67% bucket of "NO" and has only a 3.33% chance of being wrong. Even then he knows it would take a Cinderella upset for him to be wrong by Leafs winning and in fact is backing 29 other teams (without having to commit to any specific one) that a team other than Toronto wins by playing the extremely lopsided odds in his favour.

This prediction doesn't even need to go in-depth and analyze advanced Leaf stats or look at them being a non playoff team last year to Cup winner the next etc etc.

I guess you didn't have a chance to look at this yet. I suggest you take a minute.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/odds?s=t

 

[hoglund]

You were doing a lot more than that. And no, I never thought standings alone were all I needed to know. I took a lot more into account, whereas you simply relied on the old "well LA was good before, and the Leafs sucked before, so LA is just obviously better" stance.

Unfortunately, ignoring current play and context, and blindly relying on vegas odds and history is not a proper method of evaluation.


I can learn from mistakes, but I didn't make a mistake. Everything I said at the time was true. From that point forward, Toronto lost their MVP, and LA added their MVP and stepped up their entire game in the playoffs, which gave you results which you feel entitle you to continuously take threads off topic.


You can experience the same problems for different reasons.


I don't know something deep, lol. It's quite simple, and was explained countless times by me and others. You just refused to accept it.

Everything on both sides has been said. I'm not changing my stance. You're not changing yours.

Stop taking this (and every other) thread off topic with misrepresented year-old discussions.

it sounds like you're trying to diverse people's attention to avoid admitting YOU made the mistake.

 

[Gallagbi]

Actually that is exactly the point I was making about factoring in the actual % of winning and not winning the Stanley Cup, black or white scenario.

There are 30 NHL teams and only 1 wins the Cup each year and 29 don't. So the odds are equal for all. 1/30 = 3.33 % winnings and 29/30 = 96.67% of losing right across the board.

So you are 100% correct in suggesting that both LA and Chicago might feel they're on the same level of winning but I can state with 100% accuracy that one of them will be in the "NO" and 96.67 losing %. There is also only a 3.33% that the other one also doesn't end up in the same boat. In fact odds are 6.66% (2/30) of either Chicago or LA winning and 93.33% (28/30) that both don't.

Bob McKenzie here wasn't really put on the spot with having to pick an LA or Chicago to win the Cup Yes or No alternative and put in a tough spot (having to pick between multiple Cup winners in past 5 years), but rather the Leafs instead.

Only the most loyal\optimistic Leaf fan would believe Leafs should be considered equals to LA and Chicago (and others). Admittedly it would be a serious upset\longshot for Leafs to win it all. So McKenzie (who is a smart guy) put the Leafs into the 96.67% bucket of "NO" and has only a 3.33% chance of being wrong. Even then he knows it would take a Cinderella upset for him to be wrong by Leafs winning and in fact is backing 29 other teams (without having to commit to any specific one) that a team other than Toronto wins by playing the extremely lopsided odds in his favour.

This prediction doesn't even need to go in-depth and analyze advanced Leaf stats or look at them being a non playoff team last year to Cup winner the next etc etc.

Your first point contradicts your second and much of what you wrote afterwards.

That's a long winded post to say very little and repeat what you've already been questioned on.

 

[Mr Lahey]

Actually that is exactly the point I was making about factoring in the actual % of winning and not winning the Stanley Cup, black or white scenario.

There are 30 NHL teams and only 1 wins the Cup each year and 29 don't. So the odds are equal for all. 1/30 = 3.33 % winnings and 29/30 = 96.67% of losing right across the board.

So you are 100% correct in suggesting that both LA and Chicago might feel they're on the same level of winning but I can state with 100% accuracy that one of them will be in the "NO" and 96.67 losing %. There is also only a 3.33% that the other one also doesn't end up in the same boat. In fact odds are 6.66% (2/30) of either Chicago or LA winning and 93.33% (28/30) that both don't.

Bob McKenzie here wasn't really put on the spot with having to pick an LA or Chicago to win the Cup Yes or No alternative and put in a tough spot (having to pick between multiple Cup winners in past 5 years), but rather the Leafs instead.

Only the most loyal\optimistic Leaf fan would believe Leafs should be considered equals to LA and Chicago (and others). Admittedly it would be a serious upset\longshot for Leafs to win it all. So McKenzie (who is a smart guy) put the Leafs into the 96.67% bucket of "NO" and has only a 3.33% chance of being wrong. Even then he knows it would take a Cinderella upset for him to be wrong by Leafs winning and in fact is backing 29 other teams (without having to commit to any specific one) that a team other than Toronto wins by playing the extremely lopsided odds in his favour.

This prediction doesn't even need to go in-depth and analyze advanced Leaf stats or look at them being a non playoff team last year to Cup winner the next etc etc.

You're still trying to argue this? Do you intentionally ignore mathematical concepts and make up your own or do you truly believe in what you write?
MOD

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're still trying to argue this? Do you intentionally ignore mathematical concepts and make up your own or do you truly believe in what you write?

And, like any post that questions your math ability (or severe lack thereof), this will probably get deleted.

To be fair, I have made a number of such posts in the past and they weren't deleted so I don't think yours will be either. Gotta give credit where credit is due.

 

[Bluelines]

Remember when in February I posted Vegas odds showing that LA was listed as 15-1 and Toronto was at 50-1 and you were insisting that LA and Toronto had an equal chance at winning the cup?

Maybe you and Mess should found an "equal opportunity" club. No discriminating against the weak.

I know I know, there's a ton of variables in play.

Remember when the Blue Jays were 4-1 odds on favorite to win the World Series 2 years ago?

Every team has an equal chance to make moves that would benefit their team in winning their championship.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Remember when the Blue Jays were 4-1 odds on favorite to win the World Series 2 years ago?

Every team has an equal chance to make moves that would benefit their team in winning their championship.

And you point is? Also, not to be a nit but I don't remember the Jays ever being 4-1. Odds on favorites yes but IIRC it was more like 10-1 or thereabouts with 4-5 teams only slightly below them.

You could look up the odds to win the cup right now. I haven't looked but I'd bet a ton that LA is at this point in time given a better chance than Toronto. I would also bet a ton that whoever is favored, there are a number of teams very close behind them.

Will the team with the shortest odds win? Maybe. But probably not considering they're probably a 6-1 dog to win or something like that.

Do the odds listed for various teams represent their actual chance of winning? No, not exactly but it's not a bad starting point, this is true for several reasons. And if one team is given a much better chance than another team, it is highly likely that that team does in fact have a better chance to win.

Do the odds listed give a better picture than a glance at the current standings would? Absolutely. The oddsmakers have to consider everything and they are backing the numbers posted with real money.

Do the odds listed give a better picture than any other single numbers you could look at? I believe so yes. If there is something better than I would like to hear about it. I am 100% certain that looking at the posted odds gives a more accurate picture than looking at current standings would.

The whole point is, the odds posted may not be perfect but by and large they are pretty efficient. If they list LA at 15-1 and Toronto at 50-1 (as they did in February) and some random internet poster tells you no, they both have an equal chance of winning, then the random internet poster hasn't a clue and you can count on it.

PS LA was 15-1 and Toronto 50-1 before the trade. After the trade the odds shifted even further but even before LA was considered a much stronger cup candidate then Toronto by those that had to consider everything in context and back up their opinions with real money. It's not just that LA won the cup and Toronto didn't, it's that LA won the cup and Toronto fell over a cliff and the notion that they had equal chances in February is ludicrous. Just as ludicrous as it would be to say today that Toronto and LA have equal chances today.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

it sounds like you're trying to diverse people's attention to avoid admitting YOU made the mistake.

I made no mistake. I'm not trying to do anything except be done with this ridiculous year-old discussion that certain obsessed people can't let go of.

You or anybody else think I was wrong? I could care less. Chances are you don't even have a clue what I even said because this discussion was a year ago, and was barely even about what is being represented here. I wasn't even making predictions back then, but I made my case almost a year ago and many times since then, and I stand by it, regardless of the end result. Which itself was a result of moves and changes made after this discussion was had, that I said needed to be made all along, while everybody, including the individual in question, ignored that and said they were fine as is because they were LA and LA is awesome because history and odds and stuff.

And no, I never said Toronto would win the cup. And I looked at plenty of factors, including potential matchups. My conclusion was that both had a chance, but that as is, that chance was similarly pretty bad. My conclusion ended up being right, since it took a complete change in play, a complete change in intensity, a lot of players stepping up, and basically a free top line player that dominated the playoffs for nothing off the roster.

Now I get my character attacked constantly in every thread I visit, having to repeatedly give the same answers because of an obsessed person misrepresenting a simple discussion from a year ago? Yeah, not happening.

 

[thehockeysong]

And you were wrong.
Three years ago, complete longshot won it.
And yes I know, a bunch of imaginary people who may or may not have existed were picking LA to win it from the beginning.

No, not imaginary people. You're saying going into that season people weren't thinking LA would be great? They played crappy during the regular season and plenty of people were surprised. Doesn't take a hockey insider to tell you that they were one of the teams that had a great shot at winning it.

Lol, "couple teams with a shot". Using your logic and criteria, it's more like 20+. Great way to cover your butt.

The winners haven't been "longshots" for a grand total of 2 years.

And yeah, only garbage teams make the Stanley Cup Final.

??? First, no it's not 20+.......... that's literally the exact point that's being debated here.

Second, it hasn't been 2 years. These haven't been longshots.

 

[Trapper]

Bob McKenzie by saying "NO" to Leafs winning the Cup this year is not comparing Toronto to LA and Chicago.

Fans that are upset with his answer are the ones that are putting the Leafs in the same group in the "Yes" category with LA and Chicago and others of potential Cup winners.

Are the Leafs going to win the Cup this year is a Yes or No (black and white) possible outcome, as its either they are or they're not. Only 2 actual final options exist. Whereas some fans that are upset with McKenzie want to check the MAYBE box as (grey) & undecided and uncommitted at present.

Isn't that what is happening in this thread?.

If this thread was a poll asking are the Leafs going to win the Cup this year with options of either Yes or No, which one would you check?

Right now Mess, I'd have to think about simply checking the Yes/No box on will this team make the playoffs. Let's learn to crawl before we can walk/run.
But I agree with what you said, my answer for the Cup would be No.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It seems like we are a pretty fragile bunch if we somehow found an issue with Bob MacKenzie's answer, and found it to be too blatant.

I think we are a better team than we were last year, and could end up making the playoffs fairly easily. I'd still like to see how the team performs "down-the-stretch" though before coming to any definitive conclusions.

 

[Mess]

Right now Mess, I'd have to think about simply checking the Yes/No box on will this team make the playoffs. Let's learn to crawl before we can walk/run.
But I agree with what you said, my answer for the Cup would be No.

I agree that right now there is no real certainty or even comfortable feeling that the Leafs will make the playoffs this year.

If its questionable about being a playoff team, it would be logical to check the NO box as to a Stanley Cup question.

Leafs last 2 games certainly hasn't provided any evidence or doubt that Bob McKenzie's opinion is wrong.

 

[Trapper]

I agree that right now there is no real certainty or even comfortable feeling that the Leafs will make the playoffs this year.

If its questionable about being a playoff team, it would be logical to check the NO box as to a Stanley Cup question.

Leafs last 2 games certainly hasn't provided any evidence or doubt that Bob McKenzie's opinion is wrong.

If you weren't a Leaf fan and were not watching the standings, if you took all 16 teams in the East and compiled their underlying stats (from Corsi/Fenwick, Shots allowed,possesion,GA etc.), which 8 teams would you have in the playoffs?

 

[Mess]

If you weren't a Leaf fan and were not watching the standings, if you took all 16 teams in the East and compiled their underlying stats (from Corsi/Fenwick, Shots allowed,possesion,GA etc.), which 8 teams would you have in the playoffs?

Well based on stats as in Corsi and shot totals the results show the Leafs are 27th in CF% @45.3 (only Colorado 45.1, Calgary 44.9, and Buffalo with less). Reference point as bad as Edmonton as been their possession CF% is 50.7 (15th in the NHL).

In terms of shots/game Toronto is 28th @ 34.1 shots/g (Only Colorado and Buffalo give up more per game). Using Edmonton again as league average standard are 16th in shots against at 29.1.

So our Leafs are bottom 5 in the NHL in both Corsi and Shots which doesn't rank you among the playoff teams but rather the draft lottery teams having a top 5 pick based on team performance and play. Edmonton has already fired their coach and their stats are much better then the Leafs in comparison and here in this thread we are debating if Bob McKenzie is wrong by saying NO to Leafs winning the Cup this year.

 

[Trapper]

Well based on stats as in Corsi and shot totals the results show the Leafs are 27th in CF% @45.3 (only Colorado 45.1, Calgary 44.9, and Buffalo). As bad as Edmonton as been their possession CF% is 50.7 (15th in the NHL).

In terms of shots/game Toronto is 28th @ 34.1 shots/g (Only Colorado and Buffalo give up more per game).

So our Leafs are bottom 5 in the NHL in both Corsi and Shots which doesn't rank you among the playoff teams but rather the draft lottery teams having a top 5 pick based on team performance and play.

However what is not calculated in the stats is this teams ability to go through stretches of incredibly high shooting % which other teams don't seem to match on our level. This skews the numbers and standings which keep us from being a bottom 5 team but still not good enough for the playoffs based on the overall calculated poor numbers. Not bottom 5 but rather 8-12.

 

[Mess]

However what is not calculated in the stats is this teams ability to go through stretches of incredibly high shooting % which other teams don't seem to match on our level. This skews the numbers and standings which keep us from being a bottom 5 team but still not good enough for the playoffs based on the overall calculated poor numbers. Not bottom 5 but rather 8-12.

Leafs have some snipers that are also very weak defensively and in terms of puck possession which cause peaks and valleys based on Shooting %.

During Leafs hot streak of 10-1-1 the Leafs SH% was 14.4% however last season Leafs were 8.4%.

What that suggests is the actual win-loss record is inflated by unsustainable sh% and Leafs were able to outscore their poor Corsi/Fenwick and shots. If the Leafs performed at their average SH% at around 8 that record they would have lost 3-5 more games during that stretch of games.

So an NHL Insider like McKenzie is not going to be influenced by the anomaly of a league high shooting % over a 12 game stretch masking their poor possession and defensive play to reasonably believe Leafs are a serious Cup contender.