Bo 'Saviour, Hero, God' Horvat Discussion - Part V (MOD WARNING POST 537)

[Wisp]

It's called a recomp diet. I work with athletes all the time building the plans. When done by a competent sports nutritionist it's actually the most effective way to add lean muscle mass without going through old school off season bulks and cuts.

They eat a 15-20% overage on active days and a 10-15% deficit on rest days (dependent on their weight). It's a slow process but the end result is a slight overage during activity that allows muscle tears to heal faster to make larger muscle mass.

Sedentary people generally don't focus on the types of food they eat or cycling (not bike) to get the same result. Most people just cut calories to lose fat but you can't gain muscle without an overage. Not to mention in order for it to work effectively you have to be in peak physical condition. A lot of top, talented prospects don't make it right away because they don't get it and you also get guys like Tom Sestito who still don't get it after years and and fall out.

Over the last 18 months I gained 12lbs of muscle, dropped my BF% from 22 to 18% and lost 2 dress sizes.

#science

yeah, yeah we get the nuts and bolts, the information is available for basically everyone these days, but the actual commitment and execution of such diets by a young person is incredibly impressive. like these are guys who want to live and have fun and have a pizza and beer and some chips with their buds. when you're already super fit athlete going the extra nine yards in micromanaging what they eat and plugging each and everything into a calorie calculator seems like overkill.

I was 365 lbs when I was Horvat's age and I've since tailored my lifestyle to doing body building and maintaining a much more ideal body weight and basically outrunning the fatass of my youth and I still have a lot of trouble eating right. our society and culture makes it hard.

 

[thepuckmonster]

yeah, yeah we get the nuts and bolts, but the actual commitment and execution of such diets by a young person is incredibly impressive. like these are guys who want to live and have fun and have a pizza and beer and some chips with their buds and when you're already super fit athlete going the extra nine yards in micromanaging what they eat and plugging each and everything into a calorie calc.

I was 365 lbs when I was Horvat's age and I've since tailored my lifestyle to doing body building and maintaining a much more ideal body weight and I still have a lot of trouble eating right. our society and culture makes it hard.

I don't disagree. 80% of physical fitness is nutrition, the old adage is "you can't outwork a bad diet". It's very commendable that Bo is extremely dedicated to all facets of his on and off ice game.

 

[bossram]

But his on-ice SH% includes Bo's personal SH% which we've already agreed is unsustainable and have used to adjust his goal production down. His own SH% doesn't impact his assists, only his teammates and we've already seen that Hansen (12%) and Dorsett (6%) aren't shooting at an unusual level.



Hockey analysis shows over 40 forwards with a SH% between 15-17% this season (in all situations, not just 5v5). Now I adjusted the min. games down to 500 mins (which is roughly 25-50 games, depending on their TOI) because no one has 2000 mins played this season. But it seems that 15-17% is sustainable over fairly long stretches, which is all that matters (not that it is sustainable over entire seasons).

Bo could certainly stay at a high enough level (15-17%) due to his play style and shot selection so that he could reasonably hit ~20 goals in a full 82 game season. His assists are not driven by his personal SH% and there is nothing to suggest they are unsustainable (quite the opposite, they should go up with better players like Vrbata or Kassian instead of Hansen and Dorsett). It certainly isn't a given, but neither is it as unreachable as I think you are suggesting. Bigger minutes, PP TOI, and lineman quality could easily offset a regression in SH%.



I'm not overly familiar with the newer stats like SAT diff's but I'm glad they speak well to Bo's play.

I used 3 seasons >2000 minutes to show what is really sustainable. Sure, over 25-50 games someone can shoots the lights out, but that's not indicative of what they can really do or what they will do in the future. Bonino anyone?

SATs is Corsi. Just the new NHL name for it.

I don't doubt Bo will increase his production as he gets older. I'm saying the way he is producing now is not sustainable and that's not where the production will increase. As he gets older, he'll produce more because he'll increase his overall volume of SATs and scoring chances. Not because shooting at 15-17% is sustainable for him, Because it isn't. It's not for anyone.

 

[CanaFan]

I used 3 seasons >2000 minutes to show what is really sustainable. Sure, over 25-50 games someone can shoots the lights out, but that's not indicative of what they can really do or what they will do in the future. Bonino anyone?

SATs is Corsi. Just the new NHL name for it.

I don't doubt Bo will increase his production as he gets older. I'm saying the way he is producing now is not sustainable and that's not where the production will increase. As he gets older, he'll produce more because he'll increase his overall volume of SATs and scoring chances. Not because shooting at 15-17% is sustainable for him, Because it isn't. It's not for anyone.

I agree with your general outlook on this however I don't see the need to trend the data over multiple seasons. I'm not trying to project Bo's career here, just his next season. The nature of NHL players is to have up seasons and down seasons, so if you average anything over a long enough period you will get a more 'vanilla' middle. Injuries, slumps, contract years, changing line mates, etc all impact player production. No one is going to stand out. I'm simply saying that for a single season, a SH% of 15-17% is accomplished reasonably often. I agree over his entire career or even a long stretch of it he probably can't sustain it, simply because he is going to have a bad year or two mixed in there. And maybe it will be next year and he won't get even close to 15-17%. But is it 'possible'? Based on a smaller time frame (1 season), I believe it is.

 

[Verviticus]

in order of importance my questions would be like

"can we rely on this in the short term"
"can we rely on this in the long term"

the former is no, it could dry up tomorrow. the latter is more uncertain because he's a young and very clearly quickly improving player

 

[VanillaCoke]

I don't disagree. 80% of physical fitness is nutrition, the old adage is "you can't outwork a bad diet". It's very commendable that Bo is extremely dedicated to all facets of his on and off ice game.

Carb cycle and everything gets much easier.

Many young athletes i know outwork awful diets. Hours of sports and training on top you can really eat whatever you want and not get in worse shape. Getting in better shape is another story

 

[GetFocht]

I remember one poster on these boards claimed to be his billet while he was playing for London said they had to change their entire lifestyle for his eating plan and put a huge dent on their grocery bill

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I remember one poster on these boards claimed to be his billet while he was playing for London said they had to change their entire lifestyle for his eating plan and put a huge dent on their grocery bill

That's what happens when you have to feed a Bovine.

 

[thepuckmonster]

I remember one poster on these boards claimed to be his billet while he was playing for London said they had to change their entire lifestyle for his eating plan and put a huge dent on their grocery bill

That's not unusual in my experience but teams do compensate billets for groceries, at least a significant amount.

 

[bossram]

I agree with your general outlook on this however I don't see the need to trend the data over multiple seasons. I'm not trying to project Bo's career here, just his next season. The nature of NHL players is to have up seasons and down seasons, so if you average anything over a long enough period you will get a more 'vanilla' middle. Injuries, slumps, contract years, changing line mates, etc all impact player production. No one is going to stand out. I'm simply saying that for a single season, a SH% of 15-17% is accomplished reasonably often. I agree over his entire career or even a long stretch of it he probably can't sustain it, simply because he is going to have a bad year or two mixed in there. And maybe it will be next year and he won't get even close to 15-17%. But is it 'possible'? Based on a smaller time frame (1 season), I believe it is.

It certainly is possible. But probably not a reasonable prediction.

If I were to trying to predict his next season, I wouldn't "bank" on him shooting at a crazy high rate. Because it's also entirely possible he shoots at a crazy low rate.

 

[CanaFan]

It certainly is possible. But probably not a reasonable prediction.

If I were to trying to predict his next season, I wouldn't "bank" on him shooting at a crazy high rate. Because it's also entirely possible he shoots at a crazy low rate.

Of course, but this simply goes back to your earlier statement that people are being outrageous (or something similar) for talking about 30G/50PTS for Bo. While I am not saying it is probable, I do believe it is not outrageous to think that he could reach 50 pts (agree that the 30G is unlikely). Since he is already shooting at a high rate, it likely indicates an ability to be a quality shooter. Yes it is likely unsustainable however it also isn't entirely luck based either - if you've watched Bo's goals you'd see that it is largely his positioning and skill set driving his goals - so already he seems to have distanced himself from being the type of player who would "shoot at a crazy low rate". So if we assume that some return to a more typical shooting rate is likely to occur at some point, I would expect it to be closer to the high side than the low side. A low SH% is of course possible, but (as you say) I wouldn't bank on it either.

*Edit: Further to this, you are also projecting Bo based on one of his positive traits (SH%) regressing however not doing the same for other traits (possession, shot volume). Currently his shots/60 is below 2 (depending on what stretch of games you look at) while a normal volume is between 2 and 3 per game (topping out at Vrbata around 3 shots per game IIRC). If we are expecting his SH% to regress because it is high, is it unreasonable to also expect his shot volume to increase especially given his age and rapid growth in the last couple of months? Again, these things aren't 'certain' to happen but they are also not 'long odds' to happen. Thus when people discuss Bo potentially hitting 50pts it isn't pie-in-the-sky dreaming, even if it is on the optimistic side of things.

 

[WTG]

I'd be happy if he finished the year with around 15g 12-14a. It's a bit below his current pace since the All-star break but I think that'll be a good total to finish the season.

 

[Zarpan]

I used 3 seasons >2000 minutes to show what is really sustainable. Sure, over 25-50 games someone can shoots the lights out, but that's not indicative of what they can really do or what they will do in the future. Bonino anyone?

I'm still getting quite different numbers than you for the past three seasons for Stamkos. What site did you use for the calcs?

 

[Proto]

I'm still getting quite different numbers than you for the past three seasons for Stamkos. What site did you use for the calcs?

Those numbers are clearly wrong. Stamkos is a 17.2% shooter (all situations) in his NHL career. Maybe the poster was using his 5v5 numbers exclusively; that would be reasonable, but isn't what was stated.

Edit: and, as I stated previously, Lucic is probably not a bad stylistic comparison for shot types to what we've seen from Bo. It's possible but not bankable that he'd be an elite shooter. Being above average doesn't seem like a stretch at all though.

 

[CanaFan]

Those numbers are clearly wrong. Stamkos is a 17.2% shooter (all situations) in his NHL career. Maybe the poster was using his 5v5 numbers exclusive; that would be reasonable, but isn't what was stated.

Edit: and, as I stated previously, Lucic is probably not a bad stylist comparison for shot types to what we've seen from Bo. It's possible but not bankable that he'd be an elite shooter. Being above average doesn't seem like a stretch at all though.

Funny I didn't even think to check his numbers, I just assumed it was the min. 2000 minutes driving them down. In terms of using 5v5 vs all situations SH%, it doesn't make sense to use the lower 5v5 since we are really trying to establish what is "possible" for Bo going forward. Unless the NHL plans to abolish PPs or we assume that Bo will never step foot on a PP next year, it doesn't make sense to look at the most exclusive number to set his "ceiling". Obviously if Bo doesn't get PP time then he certainly isn't getting 50 pts, regardless of what his SH% is.

 

[CherryToke]

Horvat is playing at 220lbs and looks faster than ever

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q_xhrJtLiI&t=3m40s

 

[Wisp]

Horvat is playing at 220lbs and looks faster than ever

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q_xhrJtLiI&t=3m40s

this insane to me. almost unbelievable. like, I'd be interested about his weigh in next year.

Like Kassian came to us at 220+ weight and then went and had an offseason where improved his conditioning and cut down on... um... unnecessary size. He was faster and more capable but at 216 lbs instead.




also, more Bo: saw this on twitter.

visualizes how Bo Horvat has gotten steadily better as the year went on.

 

[WTG]

What am I looking at in this possession ribbon?

 

[Wisp]

What am I looking at in this possession ribbon?

S is the start of his season, E is the end. So when it travels goes up and left, it's a period where he's allowing a lot of shot attempts and not adjusting many of his own.

As the season goes on, the ribbon begins to travel down (shots allowed) and right (shots created), indicating not only is he allowing fewer opposition shots but he's started generating a lot of chances as well.

It's a good visualization of the progression of Horvat's all around game, basically.

 

[WTG]

S is the start of his season, E is the end. So when it travels goes up and left, it's a period where he's allowing a lot of shot attempts and not adjusting many of his own.

As the season goes on, the ribbon begins to travel down (shots allowed) and right (shots created), indicating not only is he allowing fewer opposition shots but he's started generating a lot of chances as well.

It's a good visualization of the progression of Horvat's all around game, basically.

Very cool!

 

[Verviticus]

its really cool but its real trick is that you use it on steve simmons like garlic on a vampire

 

[Wisp]

its really cool but its real trick is that you use it on steve simmons like garlic on a vampire

Nah, he's not repelled by it. It's more like spilling blood in shark infested waters.

 

[PG Canuck]

Approaching 1000 posts.

Part VI: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=98963011#post98963011

Closed.