Pre-Game Talk: Blues vs Avalanche - Round 1 Discussion

[Davimir Tarablad]

I am going to be so pissed if Perron missed game 1 because the league can’t get its testing squared away. Completely unacceptable.

What a clown show

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

JR reported in article about Perron being on list: “The team confirmed earlier this season that everyone in the traveling party — players, staff and additional employees — was offered the vaccine, though multiple sources have told The Athletic that eight players declined. The names of those vaccinated and not vaccinated aren’t available.”

That's pretty disappointing. I don't expect to see Perron back until training camp then, since it looks like the Blues won't survive long enough. Also, its a little surprising other players haven't tested positive. Honestly won't be surprised if more guys don't get pulled from the line-up before all the crying is over.

 

[Blueston]

That's pretty disappointing. I don't expect to see Perron back until training camp then, since it looks like the Blues won't survive long enough. Also, its a little surprising other players haven't tested positive. Honestly won't be surprised if more guys don't get pulled from the line-up before all the crying is over.

Binny , Tarasenko, Scandella, Schwartz all out of morning skate today as we apparently have covid test issue.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

That is failure to decline vaccine. Are ppl that stupid in america?

The vaccine isn't mandatory, and a lot of people believe there isn't enough studies done to prove the vaccines are more pro than con. Everyone has their own beliefs, and have all the right to choose what they do or do not put inside their bodies. It could also be a thought of "I'll get it after the season is over".

 

[Ridge1982]

Clownshow continues to clownshow.

I really hope and pray Lindenwood has enough funds to go to NCAA D1, because I’ve had it with this garage league.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I'm absolutely not saying that 1 game makes a series or that we are done because of game 1. But I don't see how you can argue that we weren't throttled on Monday. Every possession/expected metric was at least 65% in favor of the Avs with most of them being above 70%. At 5 on 5, high danger chances were 12-5, scoring chances were 36-15 and expected goals were 2.83-1.12. Those numbers get significantly worse if you factor in special teams time. In all situations, high danger chances were 16-5, scoring chances were 44-19 and expected goals were 4.61-1.59.

Yes, the Avs did pad their shot/attempt count by lobbing some muffins at Binner, but they also got a ton of high quality chances. Binner made at least the best 3 saves of the night (the 2-0, the Jost breakaway, and the 1st period Landy cut across backhand + MacKinnon rebound). He had a couple other stops (3rd period Saad redirection and a 3rd period blocker save on (I believe) Compher that were right on par with Grubauer's best of the night (blocker save on Hoffman and the flipper pad save on Kyrou). Binner was incredibly good and kept the score lower than an average goaltending performance would have. Each team hit a post.

That game was absolutely not closer than the score or shots suggest. That is about as lopsided as playoff games get. We had a few stretches where we dictated play, but we got handily outplayed for all but a couple 10 minute stretches. That happened a couple times against Boston in 2019, so I'm not saying that this game guarantees doom. But this was an exceptionally good Avs team dominating the Blues.



ROR entered the a year earlier than Thomas. In his 3rd season, he had 55 points as a 20/21 year old. ROR's 21/22 year old season was the lockout year and he held out the start of the season due to a contract dispute. He eventually returned and played 29 games. He scored at a 56 point pace in those 29 games. Thomas turns 22 this summer and is coming off a season where he was on pace for 30 points. I'm not at all starting alarm bells about Thomas' long-term development, but I don't see how you can say he is on track to develop into a more offensive player than ROR. ROR has had 3 straight seasons as a 70+ point pace player and has been a 60+ point pace player in 7 of his last 8 seasons. That is high level production and I don't think you can argue that a prospect with 87 points in his first 169 games (42 point pace) is on track to exceed that. He certainly could, but his 6 points in 12 games before injury this year don't suggest that he was trending toward the breakout 3rd year that ROR saw and you often see with high end offensive guys. I'm still bullish on Thomas' long term potential, but I don't think it is accurate to say he is perfectly on track to be a perennial 70 point guy who tops 80 a few times.


Again, there is absolutely still a way the Blues win this, but I disagree that the Blues have shown that they can limit the top line enough to do so. Their top line outscored us 2-0 at 5 on 5 in game 1 and had an 83% xGF%. MacKinnon has 17 points in 9 games against us this year.

I don't buy the argument that the top line drives possession to the point that their entire bottom 9 relies on it. Landeskog/MacKinnon/Rantanen played 13:37 at 5 on 5 in game 1. That's just not enough to set up the other 3 lines with favorable zone starts. Thier bottom 9 absolutely dominated the possession game on Monday and it was not simply a result of getting nice zone starts. That contributed to the level of dominance, but I think that their depth did exactly the type of lifting you are referring to last night. We are in big trouble if the Avs entire team plays like they did in game 1.

I agree with pretty much the entire rest of your post, especially the stuff about Hoffman. He hasn't been good defensively, but he is putting the effort in and has been adequate.

Appreciate the post -- informative as always.

Some clarifications about what I said:
We were never going to win this series by dominating our opponent. We were always going to have to limit how much Colorado dominates play and supplement that with timely depth scoring and great goaltending to win. We did get beat last night, but you can either look at that as Colorado's aggregate best (they won't play much better than that against the Blues and we held them to 1 goal for 2 periods), or you can look at it as their average (on their average night they'll still manage to outscore us despite our best play). Against the Blues in a 7 game series, I think that will be their aggregate best play, meaning that we shouldn't be too disheartened -- we were always going to give up 2-3 of these kind of games even if we win.

If Tarasenko or Hoffman score on their golden opportunities, I think the result of this game is much different. That doesn't change the fact that it WASN'T, but I do think that the Blues showed they could have won that game.

As for Thomas, you're right, I was talking about how he plays the game, not comparing his ability to ROR: he will never be as good defensively, and won't likely be that good offensively, either, but his game is similar. I don't think Thomas was ever a lock to become a 1C, but then again, neither was ROR. I think there are comparables showing that Thomas could rise above my "good 2C" potential evaluation, but I wouldn't argue that he's likely to do it.

Long point that I unfortunately don't have the time to format:
I do think we've shown in games past that we are capable of preventing Colorado's top line from outright winning the game -- we showed that for two periods just two nights ago, and have shown that for 16 out of the 27 periods of play so far, roughly 60% of the time. The key has always been to stop that line from scoring, and the Blues have shown they can do it -- but how consistent can they be over a 7-game series? Applying the percentage so far, they should be able to hold their top line from scoring roughly 2 of 3 periods. That's good, since Colorado averages 3.33 goals per game against us, including that 8-0 win, but without that 8-0 win, they average 2.75 goals per game. The Blues, on the other hand, have scored 2.44 goals per game, including that 8-0 loss, and tie Colorado at 2.75 goals per game if you call the 8-0 game an outlier. Against the Blues, more than 50% of Colorado's offense is from their top line. In games the Blues lose, their top line has scored 8 goals and 13 assists. In the three games the Blues won, their top line has only scored 3 goals and 3 assists, or a one goal per game. Even in the games that we won, over 50% of their offense came from that top line. So if we can hold their top line to 1 or fewer goals per game like we've shown we can, we can win this series.

 

[Thallis]

That is failure to decline vaccine. Are ppl that stupid in america?

Yep.

 

[BluesBro]

If the NHL sidelines more Blues and refuses to postpone the games, I'm refusing to watch. And I have only missed watching maybe two total games in the last three years. I'd encourage anyone PO'd about this situation to do the same. The only way to send a message to the NHL is to drop their ratings.

 

[Ridge1982]

Which, again, is why I hope Lindenwood has the I’s dotted and the t’s crossed, because college sports are so much better than the pros.

 

[mk80]

If all reports are true this would make teams in the NHL, NBA, and now an MLB team with possibly inaccurate or disputed test results

 

[Spear]

From Blues website:

NEW YORK - The National Hockey League today released the following statement:
"This morning, we became aware of certain test results involving multiple Players on two Clubs (the St. Louis Blues and the Vegas Golden Knights) that had indicated positive results for the COVID-19 virus. Because those reported results emanated from the same laboratory, and due to other peculiarities and similarities as among the test results themselves, an investigation was initiated into the possibility that the initial test results reported may have been in error. All affected Players were immediately isolated and further testing was done involving collected samples. Those tests have returned uniformly negative results, therefore confirming that the initial reported test results were in error. As a result, all affected Players will be eligible to play in their team's next game."

 

[mk80]

From Blues website:

Perron not included though

 

[Meatball]

Bah, goodnight.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

Perron not included though

Why? Especially if all tests were uniformly negative?

 

[mk80]

Why? Especially if all tests were uniformly negative?

His case and the other two are separate from this batch of false positives from today. So likely hes either tested repeatedly tested positive, or still involved in contact tracing or some other reason keeping him out.

 

[Celtic Note]

Why? Especially if all tests were uniformly negative?

He had it before this batch of testing presumably

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I like these lines a lot.

He’s consistently good at putting lines together.

 

[Spear]

His case and the other two are separate from this batch of false positives from today. So likely hes either tested repeatedly tested positive, or still involved in contact tracing or some other reason keeping him out.

Well that SUCKS!

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I can barely care any more. The Blues were already big underdogs. They keep getting extra disadvantages. Maybe they’ll surprise us with a special effort, but it feels more like the Blues will go out with a whimper.

 

[TheDizee]

If the Blues don't make it out of this series then my biggest rooting interest will be for the Avs to lose so their insufferable fan base cries many tears. Can't stand these entitled d bags, one of the worst groups on HFBoards.

agreed

 

[TheDizee]

Why? Especially if all tests were uniformly negative?

League is pulling our leg I think, some shady shit is going on right now

 

[Zachary Hines]

League is pulling our leg I think, some shady shit is going on right now

Very shady

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I like these lines a lot.

He’s consistently good at putting lines together.

Hey thank you guys

Maybe one day Chief and I will be on the same page lol

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

I can barely care any more. The Blues were already big underdogs. They keep getting extra disadvantages. Maybe they’ll surprise us with a special effort, but it feels more like the Blues will go out with a whimper.

As long as it’s not a sweep

 

[Prosaic]

Kadri should be done for the series. Disgusting hit, inexcusable and unnecessary. Hopefully Parros gets it right and he’s done for the playoffs and for a good chunk next season a la Raffi Torres.

All I hope is that Faulk is healthy and ok or at least will he with no long-term trauma or concussion symptoms. I love physical playoff hockey but that crap is just terrible. Type of stuff that ends careers.

The Blues are probably toast but you’re never in trouble until you lose on home ice.