Blues Trade Proposals Part XXI

[medkit]

I feel like people have this assumption that defensemen have to be offensively productive to be good defensemen, but that's simply not true. Chris Tanev doesn't produce offense, and he's an insanely good defenseman. There are things beyond scoring that are important to look at when you evaluate a defenseman. Bortuzzo still isn't as good of a defensive defenseman as Shattenkirk (Shatty's actually better than Pietrangelo, according to the numbers), but he can hold his own. Idk, it's an important distinction to make: not all defensemen are supposed to be generating offense.

I didn't even bother mentioning defense because my point didn't need it. Obviously losing Shattenkirk for Bortuzzo is just as big of a drop off on the defensive end. Do you think RyJo makes up for that?

This is my issue with having Gunnarsson on a team when a) he doesn't produce all that much offense, b) he's not a very good defenseman, and c) his strengths are skills that our other top 5 already do better so he's not adding anything and he ends up being duplicative.

Gunnarsson being good or bad really has nothing to do with what we're talking about, but yeah I completely disagree. We do not have an excess of proven LHD and still need Gunnar until we do. Also, he's a better player than Bortuzzo straight up. He's not elite like our main guys, but to call him duplicative or 6th best is just latching onto a common scapegoat.

 

[BlueMagic]

Personally I want Backes to be traded because I feel Tarasenko should be the captain of this team. It's not right to strip the C and then keep the player.

This is what I want and predict will happen. I don't see him being traded because we are looking to compete for the cup this year, but they've reportedly already made an offer that was rejected. He will hit the market in the summer and somebody will give him $6m+. If he stays after this year they can't possibly take the C off his chest. It would be a locker room disaster. I honestly think management wants him to go. Obviously they will miss what he brings to the game but they want to pass the torch to their young superstar. Vladdy would be a great captain for lots of reasons. He leads by example, has a strong desire to carry more responsibility, is signed long term, and it would be great from a marketing perspective as well.

 

[medkit]

I think Steen and even Pietrangelo are ahead of Tarasenko in terms of leadership roles and being the next captain.

Agree 100%. I would like to see one of those two. I think either Schwartz or Tarasenko will be a future captain though.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Besides the center position. Do you honestly believe the team we have right now is good enough to win the cup this year. Because after this year it's basically going to come down to either keeping Shatty or Backes. With Allen's emergence, he's going to be getting a little more money as well as Schwartz. I know we have guys like Ott, Gunnar, and Berglund coming off the books relatively soon but we will still lose a quality player for nothing it seems and then the team will be even worse than it is now. Now after Shatty has came back and been so important to our offense, I'm even more wary than I was to trade him. But where does that leave our team for the future?

I think the talent level (if healthy) is high enough to have a reasonable shot, but I don't have any faith in the system/philosophy.

The Blues have almost $16 million in pending UFA contracts coming off the books at the end of this year. That list includes Backes, Brouwer, Ott, Brodziak, Upshall, Gomez, and Gunnarsson. It doesn't include Butler or anyone else not currently on the active NHL roster.

The current rumblings are that the salary cap will rise by about $3 million this offseason, so that brings us to about $19 million to work with...perhaps as much as $22.7 million if they move on from Berglund in the offseason.

Our only RFAs to be re-signed are Schwartz, Jaskin, Paajarvi, and Edmundson. The only one getting a really significant raise will be Schwartz. It should take no more than $6 million to cover all their raises.

That leaves us with $16.7 million to play with and the following 18 roster positions in place:
C: Stastny, Lehtera
RW: Tarasenko, Fabbri, Jaskin, Reaves
LW: Schwartz, Steen, Paajarvi
RD: Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Bortuzzo
LD: Bouwmeester, Edmundson, Lindbohm
G: Allen, Elliott

If you add Berglund in there as either a LWer or a center, that takes us to $13 million left and only 4 roster positions left to fill. Let's add Sobotka to the mix as well, leaving us with $10.3 million left and 3 roster spots left to fill.

Schwartz - Stastny - Tarasenko
Steen - X - Fabbri
Berglund - Lehtera - Jaskin
Paajarvi - Sobotka - Reaves
X - X

Bouwmeester - Pietrangelo
X - Shattenkirk
Edmundson - Parayko
Lindbohm, Bortuzzo

Allen
Elliott

Rattie probably fills one of the depth forward spots. The other goes to someone for $700k or so.

The second pairing LD slot has multiple internal candidates (Edmundson, Lindbohm, or perhaps even Shattenkirk/Parayko). If one of them wins out, we fill that last depth slot with a Butler level type for cheap.

If that happens, we have about $8 million to play with for that last center position even without ditching Berglund.

The year after that we have another $20 million coming off the books (Steen, Shattenkirk, Sobotka, Bortuzzo, Berglund, and Elliott), and perhaps additional funds from another raise in the cap, plus whatever extra space we didn't spend to the previous year. Parayko and Allen are the only significant RFAs to re-sign. Lehtera gets a $2 million dollar raise.

Even if you give $7 million to Shattenkirk and $6 million in combined raises to Allen and Parayko, you still have at least $5 million left to play around with for Steen (or his replacement), a bottom 6 center, a depth defenseman, a backup goaltender, etc. Some of those will likely be filled internally (like Binnington or Copley, and possibly Barbashev), leaving even more available for the difference makers.

The Blues have plenty of financial flexibility moving forward. They can spend big this offseason on a center if they want and easily keep their core players moving forward. Maybe not $10 million big, but pretty big.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

I think the talent level (if healthy) is high enough to have a reasonable shot, but I don't have any faith in the system/philosophy.

The Blues have almost $16 million in pending UFA contracts coming off the books at the end of this year. That list includes Backes, Brouwer, Ott, Brodziak, Upshall, Gomez, and Gunnarsson. It doesn't include Butler or anyone else not currently on the active NHL roster.

The current rumblings are that the salary cap will rise by about $3 million this offseason, so that brings us to about $19 million to work with...perhaps as much as $22.7 million if they move on from Berglund in the offseason.

Our only RFAs to be re-signed are Schwartz, Jaskin, Paajarvi, and Edmundson. The only one getting a really significant raise will be Schwartz. It should take no more than $6 million to cover all their raises.

That leaves us with $16.7 million to play with and the following 18 roster positions in place:
C: Stastny, Lehtera
RW: Tarasenko, Fabbri, Jaskin, Reaves
LW: Schwartz, Steen, Paajarvi
RD: Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Bortuzzo
LD: Bouwmeester, Edmundson, Lindbohm
G: Allen, Elliott

If you add Berglund in there as either a LWer or a center, that takes us to $13 million left and only 4 roster positions left to fill. Let's add Sobotka to the mix as well, leaving us with $10.3 million left and 3 roster spots left to fill.

Schwartz - Stastny - Tarasenko
Steen - X - Fabbri
Berglund - Lehtera - Jaskin
Paajarvi - Sobotka - Reaves
X - X

Bouwmeester - Pietrangelo
X - Shattenkirk
Edmundson - Parayko
Lindbohm, Bortuzzo

Allen
Elliott

Rattie probably fills one of the depth forward spots. The other goes to someone for $700k or so.

The second pairing LD slot has multiple internal candidates (Edmundson, Lindbohm, or perhaps even Shattenkirk/Parayko). If one of them wins out, we fill that last depth slot with a Butler level type for cheap.

If that happens, we have about $8 million to play with for that last center position even without ditching Berglund.

The year after that we have another $20 million coming off the books (Steen, Shattenkirk, Sobotka, Bortuzzo, Berglund, and Elliott), and perhaps additional funds from another raise in the cap, plus whatever extra space we didn't spend to the previous year. Parayko and Allen are the only significant RFAs to re-sign.

Even if you give $7 million to Shattenkirk and $6 million in combined raises to Allen and Parayko, you still have at least $7 million left to play around with for Steen (or his replacement), a bottom 6 center, a depth defenseman, a backup goaltender, etc. Some of those will likely be filled internally (like Binnington or Copley, and possibly Barbashev), leaving even more available for the difference makers.

The Blues have plenty of financial flexibility moving forward. They can spend big this offseason on a center if they want and easily keep their core players moving forward. Maybe not $10 million big, but pretty big.

Thanks for this. But I think you are banking pretty hard that second year on contracts. Are you saying next year we just run with the center depth that we have? You expect Allen and Parayko to get a combined AAV of 6mil? I think Allen is going to get around 4.5x4 and Parayko could get somewhere around 4mil after having two NHL seasons under his belt, teams will be threatening offersheets and rightfully so since players like him don't come around often. That leaves you with little room to give Steen a reasonable contract while we still run low on center depth. I'm sure you know the numbers better than I do but I'm just trying to figure out how this team is going to look going forward. Do we go after Stamkos as a rental with something around Backes+?

 

[EastonBlues22]

Reading these two paragraphs got me to thinking. Even if it is only a temporary solution, I wonder if it would be helpful to flip Stastny and Backes. Stastny seems to be gripping his stick too tight, and we still have not seen the Stastny that played for Colorado as recently as the 2014 playoffs. Maybe putting him in a primarily checking role, at least for a short period of time, will help him work through whatever is holding him back. At the same time, Backes and Tarasenko have shown some chemistry in their limited time together, and it might be worthwhile to explore whether or not that can grow with Backes in a primarily offensive role as our #1C. At this point, I feel he deserves that role more than the Blues version of Stastny, but I sure hope Stastny works out of his funk and reclaims that title in the next 3-1/2 months.

56-42-91
20-26-36
15-12-23

I think I mentioned it awhile back, but I'm a big fan of trying Backes with Tarasenko's line. Backes is the best player we have in front of the net, and Tarasenko is the best player we have at getting the puck there. It makes a lot of sense to play them together, if you can get past using Backes primarily in a shutdown role.

Stastny and Lehtera are good enough defensively to be trusted to do a credible job in their own end. Assign the wingers to them based on zone matching, or whatever floats your boat.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Thanks for this. But I think you are banking pretty hard that second year on contracts. Are you saying next year we just run with the center depth that we have? You expect Allen and Parayko to get a combined AAV of 6mil? I think Allen is going to get around 4.5x4 and Parayko could get somewhere around 4mil after having two NHL seasons under his belt, teams will be threatening offersheets and rightfully so since players like him don't come around often. That leaves you with little room to give Steen a reasonable contract while we still run low on center depth. I'm sure you know the numbers better than I do but I'm just trying to figure out how this team is going to look going forward. Do we go after Stamkos as a rental with something around Backes+?

No, that $6 million covers their raises...it's in addition to what they are already making. I figured Allen will be under $5 million ($2.65 million raise max), and Parayko under $4.25 million ($3.4 million raise max). That totals to budgeting roughly $6 million for their combined raises.

The Blues could make a run at Stamkos if he hits the market, but it will likely mean parting ways with Backes and Berglund this year, in addition to Steen the year after that. Could be worth it organizationally, depending on what Stamkos is asking for, and assuming he fits in with however the next coach wants to play the game.

I don't see them paying up for Stamkos as a rental.

 

[EastonBlues22]

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